Race Preview: Fontwell 3:45 (Cls3 Handicap Hurdle)

This is a competitive 7-runner Class 3 handicap hurdle over 2m 3f. Fontwell is a sharp, undulating, figure-of-eight track, so course form is a significant advantage. This race features a fascinating clash between an in-form course specialist and a class-dropping, unexposed novice.

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Runner-by-Runner Analysis

Here is a breakdown of the field:

• George’s Lad (12-0) This is the “class act” of the race. He’s lightly raced and won his maiden at Doncaster “in a canter.” His last run, 229 days ago, was in a much higher-grade (Grade 3) handicap at Sandown, where he was running a huge race off this exact mark (OR126) before falling at the last. He was only 2 lengths off the leaders at the time. The 12-0 top weight and the long layoff are the two big concerns, but he has the most raw ability in this field.
• Goodwin (11-5) This horse is the specialist. He’s a course winner and, more importantly, a course-and-distance winner, having made all to win comfortably here in September. He backed that up with a solid 4th at Uttoxeter under a penalty. He’s in the form of his life, and his jockey’s 3lb claim is a big help. He will almost certainly try to lead from the start, and in a small field at this track, he could be very hard to catch.
• Paso Doble (11-4) From the powerful Paul Nicholls yard, he returns to hurdles after a poor run over fences 195 days ago. His hurdle form is much better. His run in January at Taunton, when a close 2nd off this mark (OR118) in a good race, makes him a major threat. Forgiving his last run, he is very well-handicapped on his best form.
• Kap Vert (11-4) A solid, consistent type from the Hobbs & White stable. He ran respectably (7th of 25) in a big-field handicap at Punchestown when last seen 176 days ago. However, his best form has come on soft ground, and this 2m 3f trip might be a bit sharp for him.
• Kamaxos (11-1) He’s slid down the weights to OR115 (6lbs lower than his last win), but his recent form is very poor (Fell, 9th, 11th). He’s hard to trust after a 222-day break, despite being on a tempting mark.
• Aggagio (10-9) Another course winner who is handicapped to go well. He won at Warwick in March off OR106 and now runs off just OR109, with a very light weight of 10-9. His last run was dreadful (comment: “never going well”), but if he bounces back, he’s a danger.
• Gold Souk (10-2) This horse has no chance. He’s the bottom weight for a reason. His recent form is non-existent, and he hasn’t run over hurdles in over 600 days.

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Conclusion and Selection

This will be a tactical race. Goodwin will try to make it a test from the front, and his love for Fontwell gives him a huge edge. George’s Lad has the most talent but has to defy a big weight after a long break.

The main threat to the front-runner could be Paso Doble, who is proven to be competitive off this mark and returns to his preferred discipline.

However, fitness, proven course form, and a good tactical position are gold dust around here.

Selection: Goodwin