Race Preview: Southwell 6:30 (Class 5 Handicap – 1m 14y)

This looks like a typically competitive Class 5 all-weather handicap, featuring several course specialists, some horses dropping in grade, and an unexposed contender. Southwell’s Tapeta surface often produces fair results, but previous course form is always a significant advantage.

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Runner-by-Runner Analysis:

• Alessia Fernanda (9-10, OR72): Ran a very encouraging race over course and distance last time out (20 days ago), finishing 4th in a higher grade (Class 4) off a 1lb higher mark. That was her first run on AW and she seemed to handle it well. Drops back to Class 5 and could improve again. Oisin Orr booking is a plus. Strong claims. 👍
• Bajan Bandit (9-8, OR70): A dual course winner earlier this year (7f & 1m) off much higher marks (OR76 & OR80). His form since has completely collapsed (...06404689), including a very poor run last time. Drops back into Class 5 now but is dangerously well-handicapped if rediscovering any spark at his favoured track. A risky but potentially rewarding proposition. 👀
• Forest Caper (9-11, OR73): Consistent maiden who has placed multiple times on turf off similar marks. Makes his All-Weather debut, so how he handles the Tapeta surface is a complete unknown. Fairly treated if taking to it.
• Knickerbocker (9-7, OR72): Lightly raced 3-year-old filly who ran a career-best when agonisingly denied by a nose at Kempton (1m, AW) last time out off OR70. She’s only 2lb higher here and looks progressive. Handles artificial surfaces well. Leading contender. ⭐
• Optimatum (9-4, OR69): Won on turf in June. Has run respectably since, including a good second three runs back off OR68. Recent efforts (57) suggest he might be in the handicapper’s grip now. AW form isn’t compelling.
• Riyadh Gem (9-6, OR71): A course winner over this trip off OR67 back in March. Ran an excellent race when second here two starts back off OR70. Didn’t run quite as well last time (5th) but remains only 1lb higher than that good run. Hollie Doyle takes over. Solid each-way chance.
• Saytarr (9-8, OR73): Won twice on AW earlier this year. Ran okay back on turf last two times (56). Returns to AW off a mark he has been competitive off before, including a second here off OR66.
• Soames Forsyte (9-9, OR71): Loves it here! A triple course winner, including over course and distance off OR68 in July. Form has dipped badly last two runs (79), but he drops back into Class 5 and cannot be discounted at his favourite venue. Could easily bounce back.
• Spec Of Light (9-5, OR70): Another course and distance winner, scoring here off OR67 in March. Form since has been poor (79) on turf. Returns to his winning C&D off just a 3lb higher mark. Could revive.
• Stratocracy (9-11, OR73): Also a course winner (1m, off OR66 last October). Has run consistently well in defeat since, including finishing 5th on his last two starts. Seems fairly handicapped but might just find a few too strong for the win. Rossa Ryan booked.

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Verdict:

This is wide open with several plausible winners. Bajan Bandit is incredibly well-handicapped on his course form from the start of the year, but his recent runs are a major worry. The progressive 3-year-old Knickerbocker went very close last time and looks sure to run well again off just a 2lb higher mark. Alessia Fernanda ran a blinder here in a better race last time and drops in grade.

Of the course specialists, Riyadh Gem ran well here two starts back, while Soames Forsyte could easily bounce back to form at his favoured track. Spec Of Light also returns to the scene of his last win.

Preference is for the filly who ran so well here last time in a higher grade.

1. Alessia Fernanda 👍 2. Knickerbocker ⭐ 3. Bajan Bandit (Risky, but well-handicapped) Each Way: Riyadh Gem / Soames Forsyte