Southwell 8.00 – Race Preview

This is a marathon 2-mile 103-yard handicap for the lowest grade of horse (Class 6). In a race this long, proven stamina is by far the most important factor, followed closely by a liking for the Southwell Tapeta surface.

This small six-runner field is fascinating, as it pits three last-time-out (LTO) winners against each other, but only one of them has proven he can handle this specialist distance.

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The Standout Contender

1. SAVVY STELLAR (OR 57)
   • Why he’s the one to beat: This horse’s profile is a perfect match for the race. He is the only horse in the field to have won over this exact course and distance (C&D), which he did just 30 days ago.
   • His profile reads Course_1-0-1 and Dist_1-0-1, both from that LTO victory.
   • For that win, the handicapper has only raised him 2lbs (from OR 55 to 57), which is extremely lenient. He is in-form, proven under all of today’s conditions, and is unpenalized compared to his main rival. He is the clear and solid top pick.

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The Main Dangers

1. MOAB (OR 64)
   • Why he’s a danger: He also arrives in winning form, having won at this course (Southwell) 16 days ago. He clearly handles the track, and the booking of top jockey Hollie Doyle is a major positive.
   • The Question: That win was over 1m 6f. He now has to prove he has the stamina for an extra 2.5 furlongs. More importantly, he was hit with a 7lb penalty for that win (up from OR 57 to 64), which makes this a much tougher task, especially with stamina to prove.
2. BARAFUNDLE BAY (OR 56)
   • Why she’s a danger: She is the other horse who has proven she stays this far. She finished a strong 3rd over 2m 1/2f at Wolverhampton last time, her first try at the trip. She ran on well, suggesting this distance is exactly what she wants. She is lightly raced and open to more improvement.

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The Other LTO Winner

• ADVERTORIAL (OR 50)
  • This filly also won last time out (at 1m 6f) and is on a very low weight (8-9). However, like Moab, she has a significant stamina question to answer, and unlike Moab, she has never run at Southwell before.

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Verdict

This race looks like a fantastic opportunity for SAVVY STELLAR. He is the only runner who has already won over this C&D. He is in form and has been treated very lightly by the handicapper with just a 2lb rise.

Moab is the obvious danger given his own course win, but the combination of a 7lb penalty and a big step up in distance makes him vulnerable. Barafundle Bay is the most interesting of the rest and looks likely to run into a place.

1. Savvy Stellar
2. Moab
3. Barafundle Bay