5.15 Irishinjuredjockeys.com Fillies Optional Claiming Race (7f)
TimeWise Master Top Two Rated
| Rank | Horse | Trainer | TimeWise Rating | SP |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Independent Expert (IRE) | S Thorne | 85 (Total TimeWise Rating) | 2/1 |
| 2 | Beautiful Affair (IRE) | J P O’Brien | 71 (Total TimeWise Rating) | 5/1 |
Recent Form and Comments Summary
Independent Expert (6yo, 9-10p):
This horse is a C&D maiden winner back in 2021. She won a handicap off a mark of 86 at Naas in May and is now rated 1lb lower. Her latest run over C&D saw her not disgraced. A reproduction of her performance in the Irish Cambridgeshire off 92 in August, where she was beaten 2.75l, would make her extremely difficult to beat on these current terms.
Beautiful Affair (3yo, 10-0p):
She has been twice placed in course maidens here over 7f-1m at the start of the year. Her form in handicaps has been reasonable, and she ran creditably in her last three maiden starts. On her latest outing at Naas, she finished one place ahead of Minaun View, and she is much better off at the weights here compared to that rival.
Spotlight Verdict
Aidan O’Brien’s first ever runner in a Dundalk claimer means Dramatic must be respected, but on official ratings, this should be a great opportunity for INDEPENDENT EXPERT to get her head in front again. Course specialist Amemri can never be discounted around here, while Brosna Green has place possibilities.
Race Statistics
| Category | Details |
|---|---|
| Age Groups (w-pl-r) | 3yo 1-10-57, 4yo+ 8-8-54. |
| Fate of Favourites | 31311220. |
| Trainer Records (w-pl-r) | D Marnane 38-316 (1-8 today), J P O’Brien 129-881 (1-12 today). |
Assessment of the Top Two
Independent Expert
- Strengths: Sets the standard on official ratings. Her current mark is lenient based on past strong performances (notably off 92 in August). Highly experienced C&D winner.
- Weaknesses: Needs to reproduce her peak effort.
- Suitability: Highly suited by the conditions and the terms of the claiming race.
Beautiful Affair
- Strengths: Proven ability over this distance/course, having placed in maidens earlier this year. Favourably weighted in relation to recent rivals.
- Weaknesses: Lower TimeWise rating (71). Has generally shown only reasonable form in handicaps.
- Suitability: Course experience is beneficial.
5.45 View Restaurant At Dundalk Stadium Apprentice Handicap (7f)
TimeWise Master Top Two Rated
| Rank | Horse | Trainer | TimeWise Rating | SP |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| =1 | Carrigans Grove (IRE) | P J Flynn | 72 (Total TimeWise Rating) | 6/1 |
| =1 | Venetian (IRE) | S Davis | 72 (Total TimeWise Rating) | 3/1 |
Recent Form and Comments Summary
Carrigans Grove (4yo, 10-2p):
This horse is having a successful year. Her good form continued when racing prominently in first-time cheekpieces at the Curragh (6f). However, she disappointed four weeks ago here from a career-high mark. She is a course winner.
Venetian (5yo, 10-2):
A dual AW winner in Britain. She improved on her runner-up finish here over 1m recently when comfortably landing a C&D handicap two weeks ago, leading for most of the race.
Spotlight Verdict
A wide-open handicap can go the way of TRIBAL MOON, who was an eyecatcher behind the reopposing Venetian over C&D two weeks ago. Back in fifth was Wegotogether who is still lightly raced and could improve. Marbush could blaze a trail out in front and is worth monitoring in the betting, while Inishmot Prince would be very interesting if he got a run.
Race Statistics
| Category | Details |
|---|---|
| Age Groups (w-pl-r) | 3yo 0-3-21, 4yo+ 6-9-61. |
| Fate of Favourites | 552010. |
| Trainer Records (w-pl-r) | Adrian McGuinness 1-1-9, Denis Gerard Hogan 1-0-3, John C McConnell 0-2-3, M D O’Callaghan 0-1-1. |
Assessment of the Top Two
Carrigans Grove
- Strengths: Proven course winner, equal highest TimeWise rating (72). Has enjoyed a good season.
- Weaknesses: Disappointed recently on her career-high mark. Drawn widest in stall 16, which is a significant disadvantage.
- Suitability: Proven on AW, but the wide draw poses a major challenge.
Venetian
- Strengths: Very recent C&D winner, showing comfort leading the field. Dual AW winner pedigree. Equal highest TimeWise rating (72).
- Weaknesses: Faces a subsequent 10lb rise, making the task significantly tougher.
- Suitability: Highly suited to the C&D, but the weights rise is a concern.
6.15 Russell Williamson Cauchemar Handicap (6f)
TimeWise Master Top Two Rated
| Rank | Horse | Trainer | TimeWise Rating | SP |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Undefeatable (IRE) | K Smith | 54 (Total TimeWise Rating) | 9/2 |
| 2 | Lismacbryan Hill (IRE) | D Hogan | 53 (Total TimeWise Rating) | 6/1 |
Recent Form and Comments Summary
Undefeatable (3yo, 9-11b):
Scored by over 2l at Sligo (6f) in August, running on well. She never figured in her subsequent outing at the Curragh but finished just one place behind the highly fancied Masked Angel over C&D on her latest start, wearing first-time blinkers (retained today).
Lismacbryan Hill (4yo, 9-11tp):
Bolted up in a 6f Laytown claimer last month. She finished not far behind Masked Angel over C&D four weeks ago after a weights hike, where she cut out most of the running.
Spotlight Verdict
Despite having to contend with the burden of top weight, MASKED ANGEL should prove to be a class apart dropping down in grade after an agonising defeat over C&D last time. Her biggest threat could be the reopposing Undefeatable, while Hero Of The Hour and Lismacbryan Hill are also respected.
Race Statistics
| Category | Details |
|---|---|
| Age Groups (w-pl-r) | 3yo 1-2-33, 4yo+ 9-18-100. |
| Fate of Favourites | 5522223233. |
| Trainer Records (w-pl-r) | Adrian McGuinness 1-1-8, Andrew Slattery 1-0-4, Denis Gerard Hogan 0-1-6, John C McConnell 0-1-4, Patrick J McKenna 0-1-3. |
Assessment of the Top Two
Undefeatable
- Strengths: Recent winning form (Sligo). Ran creditably in a tough assignment last time, finishing close to a major contender (Masked Angel) over C&D. Total TimeWise rating 54.
- Weaknesses: Failed to perform at the Curragh. Needs further improvement to overcome Masked Angel.
- Suitability: Solid C&D form suggests she is a major player.
Lismacbryan Hill
- Strengths: Comfortable winner recently (Laytown). Demonstrated C&D speed by leading most of the way on her last outing here. Respected by Spotlight.
- Weaknesses: Received a weights hike for her Laytown win. Total TimeWise rating 53.
- Suitability: In the mix due to C&D experience and running style.
6.45 Christmas Party Nights At Dundalk Book Now Nursery Handicap (5f)
TimeWise Master Top Two Rated
| Rank | Horse | Trainer | TimeWise Rating | SP |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Rosie Frith (IRE) | P Magee | 80 (Total TimeWise Rating) | 7/2 |
| 2 | Love Bomb (IRE) | W McCreery | 73 (Total TimeWise Rating) | 5/1 |
Recent Form and Comments Summary
Rosie Frith (2yo, 9-12L):
She won a maiden at Cork (5f). On her last two starts, she was narrowly beaten (a nose at Cork over 6f and a neck over C&D) in good quality contests, with the C&D form having been franked multiple times.
Love Bomb (2yo, 9-5):
After three decent efforts in maidens, she secured her first win on her nursery debut at Down Royal (5f, yielding), finishing strongly ahead of Final Melody.
Spotlight Verdict
The form of ROSIE FRITH’s most recent race over C&D has worked out really well and Pat Magee’s filly can come out on top on her nursery bow. Recent winner Love Bomb is a threat if handling the surface, but Final Melody is weighted to get the better of her this time. A market watch is advised for Glen And Tonic who could be lurking off a dangerous mark.
Race Statistics
| Category | Details |
|---|---|
| Age Groups (w-pl-r) | 2yo 1-6-20. |
| Fate of Favourites | 1403321642. |
| Trainer Records (w-pl-r) | Jack W Davison 1-1-3, M D O’Callaghan 1-1-5, A P O’Brien 0-1-3, Andrew Slattery 0-1-2, John James Feane 0-1-1. |
Assessment of the Top Two
Rosie Frith
- Strengths: Highest TimeWise rating (80). Consistently excellent form in competitive races, often narrowly missing out. C&D form has been strongly validated. Leading player and Spotlight selection.
- Weaknesses: None stated in the sources, appears strong.
- Suitability: Excellent chance on nursery debut given confirmed high-level form.
Love Bomb
- Strengths: Recent winner (nursery debut).
- Weaknesses: Raised 8lb. Making AW debut. Final Melody is reportedly weighted to reverse the form with her. Total TimeWise rating 73.
- Suitability: A threat if she proves effective on the AW surface.
7.15 Bar One Racing Mercury Stakes (Group 3) (5f)
TimeWise Master Top Two Rated
| Rank | Horse | Trainer | TimeWise Rating | SP |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Kansas (IRE) (2yo) | A P O’Brien | 101 (Total TimeWise Rating) | 8/1 |
| 2 | Gutsy Girl (4yo) | J P O’Brien | 99 (Total TimeWise Rating) | 12/1 |
Recent Form and Comments Summary
Kansas (2yo, 8-10p):
His Tipperary maiden win in July is his only success from eight starts. However, he has performed well in defeat in stakes company, including finishing 3l fourth in a C&D Listed race two weeks ago. As a 2yo, he receives a substantial amount of weight from older rivals.
Gutsy Girl (4yo, 9-11):
She has yet to win for her current stable but has run creditably in defeat. Her best recent effort was a head second in a 7f Listed race at Cork. She has won on AW but drops in trip again after two less productive runs at 6f.
Spotlight Verdict
This is ultra-competitive and wide-open. Ballydoyle’s 2yo Kansas gets plenty of weight from older rivals but his draw in stall 16 is not ideal. The British raider West Acre is respected and it is interesting that McMonagle prefers Lady Of The Lamp of Joseph O’Brien’s trio but in-form Johnny Murtagh’s course winner SONGHAI shaped nicely behind the 106-rated Valiant Force over C&D two weeks ago so she is a tentative selection.
Race Statistics
| Category | Details |
|---|---|
| Age Groups (w-pl-r) | 2yo 1-6-20, 3yo 2-2-33, 4yo+ 7-12-64. |
| Fate of Favourites | 3613434163. |
| Trainer Records (w-pl-r) | Daniel James Murphy 2-0-2, A Oliver 1-1-3, J P Murtagh 1-0-2, A P O’Brien 0-2-9, Andrew Slattery 0-1-1. |
Assessment of the Top Two
Kansas
- Strengths: High TimeWise rating (101). Significant weight allowance provided as a 2yo. Solid recent stakes form over C&D.
- Weaknesses: Needs to find more stepping up in grade against older rivals. Has a poor draw (Stall 16) for a 5f sprint.
- Suitability: Competitive due to weight allowance, but draw is a major tactical hurdle.
Gutsy Girl
- Strengths: Proven winner on AW. Has run well at Listed level over longer trips. TimeWise rating 99.
- Weaknesses: Dropping in trip, having struggled on recent 6f outings. Jockey preference suggests she is not the yard’s main chance.
- Suitability: AW ability is positive, but the 5f distance is untested at this level recently.
7.45 Irish EBF Median Sires Series Maiden (Smullen Series) (1m)
TimeWise Master Top Two Rated
| Rank | Horse | Trainer | TimeWise Rating | SP |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Boston Benjamin (IRE) | G Elliott | 84 (Total TimeWise Rating) | 9/2 |
| 2 | Howsthebai (IRE) | G M Lyons | 80 (Total TimeWise Rating) | 6/1 |
Recent Form and Comments Summary
Boston Benjamin (2yo, 9-0H):
In his two turf starts over 7f, he has shaped like 1m would suit. His recent fourth at Naas saw him finish a short head behind Alphecca, a formline which has since been franked. His dam placed on AW.
Howsthebai (2yo, 9-4):
His first two runs showed promise. He recently made his AW debut here over 7f, where he shaped like the step up to 1m would suit, finishing just ahead of Gold Find.
Spotlight Verdict
Both Saga Lucia and How’sthebai are respected on the back of their efforts here last time out, but the form of BOSTON BENJAMIN (nap)’s fourth at Naas has worked out well and he is taken to make it third time lucky stepped up to 1m on his AW debut. Johnny Soda has each-way claims and newcomers Pass The Buck and Hour Agenda need checking in the market.
Race Statistics
| Category | Details |
|---|---|
| Age Groups (w-pl-r) | 2yo 7-17-88. |
| Fate of Favourites | 23112. |
| Trainer Records (w-pl-r) | G M Lyons 1-1-4, M D O’Callaghan 1-0-2, Adrian Murray 0-1-1, Andrew Slattery 0-1-1. |
Assessment of the Top Two
Boston Benjamin
- Strengths: Highest TimeWise rating (84). Strong turf form that has been franked. Pedigree suggests suitability for 1m and AW racing (dam placed on AW). Spotlight nap selection.
- Weaknesses: Making AW debut.
- Suitability: Strong contender, highly likely to succeed over the 1m trip.
Howsthebai
- Strengths: Showed promise on AW debut (7f). Step up to 1m is expected to suit. TimeWise rating 80.
- Weaknesses: Needs to find improvement to challenge the top form of Boston Benjamin.
- Suitability: Course experience is a positive.
8.15 Floodlit Fridays At Dundalk Stadium Maiden (1m 2f 150y)
TimeWise Master Top Two Rated
| Rank | Horse | Trainer | TimeWise Rating | SP |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ben Lawers (3yo) | Mrs J Harrington | 87 (Total TimeWise Rating) | 5/4 |
| 2 | Seti One (USA) (3yo) | W McCreery | 77 (Total TimeWise Rating) | 10/1 |
Recent Form and Comments Summary
Ben Lawers (3yo, 9-8ht):
He is rated 84 (OR) and placed in maidens at Gowran and Leopardstown earlier in the year. On his latest start, he was runner-up behind a highly-fancied Ballydoyle rival in a C&D maiden.
Seti One (USA) (3yo, 9-8P):
His best form was recorded on his sole start at approximately this distance (1m2f) at the Curragh. He weakened on his latest outing over 1m4f. His half-brother won on dirt, suggesting he might handle the AW.
Spotlight Verdict
The top-rated BEN LAWERS bumped into one over C&D last time and a repeat of that run should be enough to win this. The Corporate Guy, Walk The Highline and Seti One can fight it out for the places.
Race Statistics
| Category | Details |
|---|---|
| Age Groups (w-pl-r) | 3yo 7-17-88, 4yo+ 3-3-39. |
| Fate of Favourites | 1344012222. |
| Trainer Records (w-pl-r) | A P O’Brien 1-4-7, D K Weld 1-2-5, Henry De Bromhead 0-1-3, W McCreery 0-1-4. |
Assessment of the Top Two
Ben Lawers
- Strengths: Top-rated in the field (TimeWise 87, OR 84). Strong C&D form recently. Spotlight selection and likely winner.
- Weaknesses: Still a maiden after five starts.
- Suitability: The one to beat, proving his ability over the distance.
Seti One (USA)
- Strengths: Best form correlates with this approximate trip. Breeding offers hope for AW suitability. Place chance mentioned by Spotlight. TimeWise rating 77.
- Weaknesses: Weakened in his most recent attempt over a slightly longer trip.
- Suitability: Expected to perform better back at this distance than at 1m4f.
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