Comprehensive Briefing on October 25th Horse Racing

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Executive Summary

This briefing document provides a comprehensive synthesis of the horse racing scheduled for October 25th across major UK and Irish racecourses, including Cheltenham, Doncaster, Newbury, Kelso, Galway, and Wolverhampton. The analysis is based on detailed racecard information, expert spotlight verdicts, historical data, and market intelligence.

Key takeaways indicate a day of competitive racing heavily influenced by prevailing soft and heavy ground conditions, which are expected to be a decisive factor in many outcomes. Notable themes include the strong presence of Irish trainers at Cheltenham, particularly Henry De Bromhead and Gordon Elliott, and a significant Group 1 contest at Doncaster, the William Hill Futurity Trophy Stakes, dominated by entries from Aidan O’Brien’s yard.

Expert selections, designated as “naps,” have been identified in key races: The Short Go in the 2.20 at Cheltenham, Trilby in the 1.30 at Doncaster, Proof in the 1.25 at Newbury, Cadell in the 3.55 at Kelso, Kibris in the 1.53 at Galway, and Carlton And Co in the 7.30 at Wolverhampton. Significant market movement has been observed for several runners, including Better And Better (Newbury 1.25), Kdeux Saint Fray (Cheltenham 1.10), and Miss Goldfire (Cheltenham 1.45), suggesting strong market confidence. The briefing details these key contenders, expert analyses, and pertinent data for each major race of the day.

Market Intelligence: Notable Movers and Top-Rated Horses

Analysis of early market data reveals significant betting confidence behind several horses, marked by substantial decreases in their starting prices. Concurrently, the TIMEWISE MASTER RATINGS highlight key contenders based on performance data.

Significant Market Movers

The following horses have seen their odds shorten considerably, indicating strong market support:

TimeRacecourseHorseTrainerInitial OddsCurrent OddsMove (%)
1:25NewburyBetter And BetterA Keatley15/25/267%
1:10CheltenhamKdeux Saint FrayA Honeyball16/111/266%
1:45CheltenhamMiss GoldfireH Fry28/18/171%
2:55CheltenhamMa ShantouE Lavelle15/211/463%
2:20CheltenhamThree Card BragG Elliott12/15/158%
1:10CheltenhamNewton TornadoMiss R Curtis7/13/157%
4:50NewburyMustazeedH Eustace9/14/156%
4:50NewburyExplodeF Bramley9/14/156%

Top-Rated Selections (TIMEWISE MASTER RATINGS)

The ratings report identifies the following horses as top contenders in their respective races:

TimeRacecourseRace TypeTop-Rated HorseOdds
1:10CheltenhamHandicap Novices ChaseCrest Of Fortune13/2
2:05DoncasterGroup 1Benvenuto Cellini6/5
3:30CheltenhamHurdleGive It To Me Oj1/2
3:50DoncasterHandicapHigh Degree7/2
4:25DoncasterHandicapAlpha Crucis5/1
3:20KelsoHandicap HurdleHeart Above9/4
3:10NewburyGroup 3Time To Turn2/1

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Cheltenham Race Meeting Analysis

1.10 William Hill Each Way Extra Novices’ Limited Handicap Chase

This Class 3 race over 2m4f features several promising chasers making their seasonal debut. The Spotlight Verdict favors a mare who showed significant potential on her first chase outing.

Spotlight Verdict: “Having stayed on strongly for second over an inadequate 2m on her chase debut at Worcester last month, SPRINGS A GIRL is taken to go one better now that she is back up in trip. This distance could also be a good fit for Zurich, who kept on well over 2m1f when awarded the race at Killarney three weeks ago, and he is feared most. Inox Allen bolted up in a first-time visor at Perth in April and is next on the list but there are numerous other dangers, including Kdeux Saint Fray, Darcy’s Friend and Newton Tornado.” — [Ben Hutton]

Key Contenders & Insights:

HorseTrainerJockeySPORRPRAnalysis
Springs A GirlM KeighleySean Bowen14-1117144Bodes “very well for her future over fences” after a strong chase debut. The yard won this race with a mare in 2022. Market mover (9/1 to 5/1).
ZurichH De Bromhead (IRE)Darragh O’Keeffe13-2125140Awarded the race at Killarney three weeks ago. From a top Irish yard, and the longer trip could prompt “further progress”.
Inox AllenL Russell & M ScudamoreDerek Fox9-1130142Returned to form with a bang in a first-time visor at Perth, “easily making all”. Respected despite an 11lb rise.
Kdeux Saint FrayA HoneyballJonathan Burke11-1123Point winner open to improvement on chase debut. A “possible contender”. Significant market mover (16/1 to 11/2).
Darcy’s FriendE Mullins (IRE)Donagh Meyler7-1121136Form “went to new level” on recent chase debut. “Could have a big shout for his respected Irish trainer”.
Newton TornadoMiss R CurtisBen Jones15-2121Point winner open to improvement on switch to fences. Goes on the shortlist. Significant market mover (7/1 to 3/1).

1.45 Play William Hill’s Final One Standing Novices’ Hurdle

A competitive Class 2 novice hurdle over 3m with a strong contingent of Irish challengers.

Spotlight Verdict: “The suggestion is CATCHINTSAVO who has very encouraging Irish point and bumper form and, judged on breeding, could well show good progress switched to hurdles. Conman John, who ties in with the selection on Punchestown festival running, is second choice. Irish challengers Pour Les Filles, Minella Supreme and Soldiers World warrant respect…” — [Steve Boow]

• Key Selection: Catchintsavo (SP 6-1), trained by A Honeyball, is highlighted for consistent form in points/bumpers and potential for progress now hurdling.

• Leading Contenders: Pour Les Filles (SP 3-1), from Gordon Elliott’s yard, is a “leading player on the figures” after a 9l win at Downpatrick. Minella Supreme (SP 9-2) is described as “steadily progressive” and his yard, J McConnell, has a “good record in this race”.

• Market Mover: Miss Goldfire has seen a dramatic price drop from 28/1 to 8/1. The mare is noted for being “very consistent” with form figures of 222112 since last December.

2.20 William Hill Best Odds Guaranteed Handicap Chase

A high-value (£100,000) Class 2 handicap chase over 3m1f. Trainer Henry De Bromhead has won the last two editions and fields a strong contender again.

Spotlight Verdict: “Henry De Bromhead has won the last two renewals of this race and on another day THE SHORT GO (nap) might have beaten his stablemate 12 months ago. Although he has been absent since early May, this may have been the plan for some time and the yard is going great guns. Hyland is hard to knock when he comes alive at Cheltenham and goes well fresh, but perhaps the most interesting alternative is Backmersackme.” — [Alistair Jones]

Key Contenders & Insights:

HorseTrainerJockeySPORRPRAnalysis
The Short Go (nap)H De Bromhead (IRE)Darragh O’Keeffe5-1132156Unfortunate not to win this race 12 months ago. “If he can find any fluency over his fences he’d be a danger to all”.
HylandN HendersonNico de Boinville11-2147157Goes well fresh and has strong course form. “Very feasible that there’s further improvement to come”.
BackmersackmeE Mullins (IRE)Sean Bowen9-1124142Yet to fire over fences but the booking of Sean Bowen is seen as a “statement of intent” and he is “dangerous to dismiss”.
Three Card BragG Elliott (IRE)Jack Kennedy12-1149152A useful staying chaser who ran well in the Kerry National. A significant market mover (12/1 to 5/1).

• Ground Preference: Nassalam (SP 40-1) is noted as having all his best form “in the mud.”

2.55 Pertemps Network Handicap Hurdle

A competitive Pertemps Hurdle Series Qualifier over 3m.

Spotlight Verdict: “In a hot race the vote goes to LONG DRAW, who won twice on the New course here last season and did very well to finish a close third at Haydock in May in a race not run to suit his very patient tactics. The Irish are mob-handed in opposition, with Emmet Mullins’ two runners Watchful Protector (feared most) and Chance Another One still unexposed…” — [Chris Wilson]

• Top Selection: Long Draw (SP 6-1), trained by O Murphy and ridden by Sean Bowen, is praised for his course form and is considered to have “more improvement to come”.

• Market Mover: Ma Shantou (SP 15-2) has seen significant market support, shortening from 15/2 to 11/4. The analysis notes the horse was a “promising staying novice last season” and “probably still has potential”.

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Doncaster Race Meeting Analysis

1.30 Skill Step Group Handicap

A £50,000 Class 2 handicap over 5f on soft ground.

Spotlight Verdict: “…everything looks in place for TRILBY (nap) to shine. He found only a well-treated and progressive 3yo too strong at Haydock last week and can stretch his unbeaten record on heavy ground.” — [Paul Smith]

• Expert’s Nap: Trilby (SP 5-1) is strongly fancied. The commentary states he “can’t have the ground too testing” and is sure to be “in the thick of it”.

• Other Contenders: Rosario (SP 4-1) comes in top form and it would be “no surprise to see him arriving on the scene late”. Jer Batt (SP 11-2) was a close second in this race 12 months ago off a 4lb higher mark and is shortlisted.

• Market Mover: Rosario has been backed from 11/2 into 100/30.

2.05 William Hill Futurity Trophy Stakes (Group 1)

This prestigious Group 1 race for 2-year-olds over 1m is dominated by Aidan P O’Brien, who saddles three of the main contenders.

Spotlight Verdict: “Aidan O’Brien sets a poser in saddling two colts who were extremely impressive in 1m Group 2 contests on their latest starts… BENVENUTO CELLINI very much took the eye with the way he kicked clear to win the Juvenile Stakes at Leopardstown… and he is preferred over all-the-way Beresford winner Hawk Mountain.” — [Ben Hutton]

Key Contenders:

HorseTrainerJockeySPORRPRAnalysis
Benvenuto CelliniA P O’Brien (IRE)C Soumillon11-10110117Favourite for the Derby after an easy Group 2 win. Has “star potential”. Top-rated by TIMEWISE.
Hawk MountainA P O’Brien (IRE)Ronan Whelan15-8111121“Powered clear in impressive fashion” to win the Group 2 Beresford Stakes. A “major player”.
OxagonJ & T GosdenOisin Murphy15-2112121Ran in the Group 1 Dewhurst; 1m trip may suit but there is a “suspicion others… have greater scope for improvement”.

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Newbury Race Meeting Analysis

1.25 Hazell & Jefferies Nursery Handicap

A Class 4 nursery handicap for 2-year-olds over 6f.

Spotlight Verdict: “The likeable Kesta (second choice) should give it another good shot… but the vote goes to PROOF (nap), who sluiced up on heavy at Ffos Las and Charlie Hills continues in form.” — [Andrew Sheret]

• Expert’s Nap: Proof (SP 11-4), trained by C Hills, won on testing ground and is raised 7lb but “had plenty to spare”.

• Market Mover: Better And Better (SP 13-2) has been heavily backed, moving from 15/2 to 5/2. The horse is a dual 6f winner and is only 1lb above his last winning mark.

3.45 BetVictor St Simon Stakes (Group 3)

A Group 3 contest for 3-year-olds and older over 1m4f, featuring seasoned performers.

Spotlight Verdict: “The chance of heavy ground looks a negative for Al Aasy and Hamish’s latest performance fell below his usual standards… The top options may therefore be Ancient Wisdom and STARZINTHEIREYES. They came second and seventh in the same 1m2f Listed race last time but with only about 3l between them and there’s a fair chance that the placings will now be turned around…” — [Richard Austen]

• Top Selection: Starzintheireyes (SP 6-1), trained by R Beckett, is fancied to improve from his reappearance run. The analysis notes there is “stamina and class on the dam’s side”.

• Key Contenders: Ancient Wisdom (SP 11-4), a Group 1 winner as a 2-year-old on heavy ground, is a “player if this is another of his good days”. Hamish (SP 7-2) is a nine-year-old veteran with a “long and distinguished career” who holds a “major chance if returning to form”.

4.50 Tony Penny 50th Birthday Handicap

A competitive Class 3 handicap over 1m2f.

• Key Contenders: Atherstone Warrior (SP 7-2) won by over 5 lengths on soft ground at Sandown last time and “needs plenty of respect” despite a 10lb rise. King Al (SP 5-1) was beaten a short head last time, is up 2lb, and is a “clear candidate for further progress” in first-time cheekpieces.

• Market Movers: Both Mustazeed and Explode have seen their odds shorten significantly from 9/1 to 4/1, indicating strong market interest. Mustazeed has a formidable C&D record, with his last four wins coming here.

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Kelso, Galway & Wolverhampton Highlights

• Kelso 3.55 – Edinburgh Gin Chase: The Spotlight Verdict’s nap is Cadell (SP 11-2), a second-season chaser with winning C&D form who “may still have further progress in him”. He is preferred over stablemate Whistle Stop Tour and the in-form Olivers Travels. The veteran Elvis Mail bids to win the race for the third consecutive year.

• Galway 1.53 – Maiden Hurdle: The nap is Kibris (SP 11-10), who “showed enough to suggest he’ll be hard to beat” after an encouraging hurdles debut at Cork.

• Galway 3.03 – Maiden Hurdle: A race of considerable potential, featuring Shuttle Diplomacy (SP 9-4), who finished third in the Champion Bumper at Cheltenham. He is expected to be “hard to beat if at his best”.

• Wolverhampton 7.30 – Handicap: The nap selection is Carlton And Co (SP 11-2). The horse is in winning form and is 2lb lower than for its last AW run, making it an “interesting” prospect.

• Wolverhampton 8.30 – Handicap: The vote goes to Phoenix Beach (SP 10-1) due to an excellent C&D record of 231323214112 and a mark 1lb lower than his latest course win. Hat-trick seeking Hint Of Humour is also respected.

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