This debate focuses on the core concept of evaluating the field in a competitive Listed Chase (the 3.30 Wexford), specifically whether preference should be given to a horse who benefits from the race conditions (lack of penalty and high potential) or those who carry penalties but boast superior recent winning form in top company.

---

The Michael Hickey Memorial Chase (Listed Race) – 3.30 Wexford

The Core Conflict: Does Blizzard Of Oz, despite being a maiden over fences, possess enough potential and favourable terms to overcome established Grade 3/Listed chase winners like Gorgeous Tom and Monbeg Park?

---

Expert 1: Barnaby Ranks – The Favourable Terms Advocate

“The value lies squarely with Blizzard Of Oz, whose conditions here are simply too good to ignore. This race penalizes previous chase winners of high standing, and Blizzard Of Oz, crucially, carries no penalty on his return.

“My argument rests on the disparity between proven quality and the terms offered. This horse is no ordinary maiden chaser; he is a bumper and dual hurdle winner who showed genuine quality in his chasing efforts last season. He was ‘just denied in a valuable 2m4f Punchestown handicap’ when last seen. When we look at the Racing Post Ratings, his master figure stands at 168. This is higher than every other runner in the field, including Monbeg Park (161) and Search For Glory (160).

“The spotlight explicitly suggests favouring him, stating he ‘showed quality chase form without winning last season and has no penalty to carry on return’. He is ‘well treated on these terms’. We are getting the horse with the highest demonstrated potential ceiling, yet carrying the joint-lowest weight (10st 9lb) in the field alongside Rocky’s Diamond. The lack of a penalty fundamentally swings the advantage to a horse like him, who has been running in races fit to win, just failing to get his head in front in high-stakes handicaps previously.”

---

Expert 2: Fiona Stride – The Proven Chase Form Advocate

“While Barnaby makes a compelling case for potential, you cannot ignore proven chasing class, especially when dealing with high-calibre Grade 3 performers. The inherent risk with backing a maiden over fences like Blizzard Of Oz is too high. The true contenders are those who have delivered recent results in graded company.

“Take Monbeg Park as the prime example. He has two chase wins, including a Listed Leopardstown handicap in March. More recently, he was a ‘close second to Heart Wood in a Punchestown Grade 3’ over this exact trip last time out. That effort was his best since winning the Listed handicap, demonstrating current, peak form, and he should ‘go close with a repeat of that’. His master RPR of 161 is highly respectable.

“Furthermore, we must respect Gorgeous Tom, who already has a win at Wexford over 2m4f, and secured a Grade 3 novice chase victory at Cork last season. He subsequently ran ‘crackers in Grade 1s at Fairyhouse and Cheltenham’. Yes, he carries a 7lb penalty, but that weight is earned through victories at a level Blizzard Of Oz has yet to reach. The focus needs to be on horses who have successfully navigated competitive fields to victory, something Monbeg Park has done at this level, and Gorgeous Tom has demonstrated with his Grade 3 success. Rocky’s Diamond is also an interesting alternative, being a Grade 2 hurdle winner who ‘beat a subsequent winner on chasing debut’, offering tangible success over the larger obstacles recently, even if stepping up in class.”

---

Barnaby Ranks’ Rebuttal

“My colleague is prioritizing recent chase victories, but she misses the essential point: the terms are rigged against those proven winners in this specific Listed race. Gorgeous Tom carries a 7lb penalty because he won a Grade 3. Monbeg Park carries 11st 0lb, 5lb more than Blizzard Of Oz. When assessing the margin needed to succeed, those pounds are critical over 2m 7f.

“If Blizzard Of Oz achieved an RPR of 160 when just denied in a handicap, then performing at his 168 master RPR ceiling makes him highly competitive against a 161 RPR horse like Monbeg Park, even before factoring in the 5lb weight difference. The Spotlight Verdict reflects this evaluation: Blizzard Of Oz is chosen precisely because he ‘has no penalty to carry on return’. While Monbeg Park and Gorgeous Tom are indeed ‘classy sorts’, they must concede weight to the highest-rated horse on pure potential, and in a competitive field, that concession is too steep.”

---

Fiona Stride’s Conclusion

“Barnaby trusts potential and weights; I trust the evidence of victory and high-level consistency. Blizzard Of Oz’s best form came in a handicap environment, not in a Listed race where the competition is fierce. When we evaluate the list of dangers to Blizzard Of Oz, the experts immediately name the proven performers: Monbeg Park, Gorgeous Tom, and Search For Glory.

“Monbeg Park has demonstrated he thrives at this track (one of his two chase wins came here) and has produced Grade 3 runner-up form very recently. Furthermore, Search For Glory is a dual Grade 3-winning novice hurdler who was placed in Grade 1/2 chase company last season. These are horses hardened by top-flight competition. The advice to monitor Rocky’s Diamond—a Grade 2 hurdle winner who jumped well on his chase debut—further indicates that true winning form, even nascent chase form, is preferable to relying on the chase maiden status of Blizzard Of Oz, no matter how favourable the weight terms might appear.”