This response outlines the analysis of the Dundalk races in chronological order, identifying the top two rated horses based on the listings provided in the “Ratings Report” section, which uses the TimeWise Master Rating set.
Dundalk Race Analysis (Chronological Order)
1. 2.00 Dundalk Optional Claiming Race (€10,000)
1m (AW) | Claimer Ire NM 3yo+
TimeWise Master Top Two Rated (Implied): Sea Eagle and Ze Do Asfalto (IRE).
| Horse | Trainer | Jockey | Odds | OR (RPR/TS) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sea Eagle | Bunyan, Darren / OLeary, G | Shane Foley | 7/4 | 83 (87/ -) |
| Ze Do Asfalto (IRE) | Hogan, Denis Gerard | J M Sheridan | 11/4 | – (72/65) |
Recent Form and Comments:
- Sea Eagle: This horse is the winner of two handicaps and has the highest official rating (OR 83). He was second in a maiden hurdle last month and is considered to be in fair condition, although he was well beaten in a maiden hurdle at Wexford on Sunday.
- Ze Do Asfalto (IRE): Beat 17 rivals over 6f at Fairyhouse in September, running in first-time cheekpieces. His form has not been as good since that win. He has one of the highest marks in the race.
Spotlight Verdict: Although disappointing over hurdles at Wexford on Sunday, SEA EAGLE was runner-up in that scene the time before and these terms are favourable. Second choice is She’s Ideal who showed something in maidens and her two handicap runs were in the mud. Timandi and Ze Do Asfalto are also considered.
Race Statistics:
- Age Groups: 3yo 1 win, 4 places from 31 runners; 4yo+ 8 wins, 14 places from 79 runners.
- Fate of Favourites: 134110111.
- Trainer Records (w-pl-r): Denis Gerard Hogan 2-1-11, Gerard O’Leary 0-1-1.
Assessment of Top Two:
- Sea Eagle:
- Strengths: Holds the highest mark (OR 83) and favorable terms. Recent form (prior to Sunday) indicates ability. C&D winner previously (three wins at 1m, two here for Fleetfootsoldier, though Sea Eagle is listed as the winner of two handicaps).
- Weaknesses: Recent form includes being well beaten over hurdles.
- Suitability: Respected at this level.
- Ze Do Asfalto (IRE):
- Strengths: Recent winner (Fairyhouse, 6f). Has a high mark.
- Weaknesses: Form has regressed since September win. Has questions regarding staying the 1m trip.
2. 2.31 Dundalk Handicap (Div I) (€11,500)
1m (AW) | Handicap Ire NM 3yo+
TimeWise Master Top Two Rated (Implied): Daler (IRE) and Punk Poet (IRE).
| Horse | Trainer | Jockey | Odds | OR (RPR/TS) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Daler (IRE) | Lyons, G M | Carroll, G F | 11/2 | 72 (70/49) |
| Punk Poet (IRE) | Lynam, Edward | Coen, Ben M | 11/4 | 63 (76/67) |
Recent Form and Comments:
- Daler (IRE): Is 0-9 but has been relatively consistent. Connections believe he has dropped to a handicap mark where he can win. Recently gelded. Soft ground possibly hampered him last time.
- Punk Poet (IRE): A multiple winner who recently succeeded narrowly over C&D one month ago, making all.
Spotlight Verdict: The suggestion is COMFORT LINE who could run around here with his eyes shut and he’s twice got stuck in the mud since a near miss at Fairyhouse. Punk Poet can run well for all that his wide stall is not ideal for one who made all here last time. The now-gelded Daler can also make an impact.
Race Statistics:
- Age Groups: 3yo 3 wins, 5 places from 64 runners; 4yo+ 7 wins, 15 places from 73 runners.
- Fate of Favourites: 26052PP232.
- Trainer Records (w-pl-r): Adrian McGuinness 1-1-6, Denis Gerard Hogan 1-0-4, Noel Meade 0-1-1.
Assessment of Top Two:
- Daler (IRE):
- Strengths: Consistent performance and competing off a potentially winning mark. Recently gelded (suggesting improvement). Expected to fare better on the AW after suspected poor soft ground run.
- Weaknesses: Maiden status (0-9).
- Suitability: Should make an impact.
- Punk Poet (IRE):
- Strengths: Proven multiple winner, including recent C&D success.
- Weaknesses: Drawn wide (stall 15), which is challenging for a front-runner.
- Suitability: Can run well despite the wide draw.
3. 3.01 Dundalk Handicap (Div II) (€11,500)
1m (AW) | Handicap Ire NM 3yo+
TimeWise Master Top Two Rated (Implied): No More Porter (IRE) and Sierra De Gredos.
| Horse | Trainer | Jockey | Odds | OR (RPR/TS) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| No More Porter (IRE) | McGuinness, Adrian | Caffrey, Adam | 5/1 | 70 (77/ -) |
| Sierra De Gredos | Oliver, Andrew | Carroll, G F | 7/2 | 67 (72/65) |
Recent Form and Comments:
- No More Porter (IRE): Although he has only won at the Curragh (turf), he is reportedly well handicapped. He came from off the pace to finish second over 1m2f here 12 days ago.
- Sierra De Gredos: Has displayed three solid runs during recent visits to Dundalk. He recently had several of today’s competitors behind him when finishing close up over 7f (19 days ago).
Spotlight Verdict: Sierra De Gredos is solid after competitive shows in his three recent visits here but OICHE RUA (nap) came from much further back when not far behind him last time and the selection returns to her winning trip now. No More Porter and Auburn Avenue are preferred of the remainder.
Race Statistics:
- Age Groups: 3yo 3 wins, 5 places from 64 runners; 4yo+ 7 wins, 15 places from 73 runners. (Note: Statistics repeated from 2.31 race, possibly Div I/II context).
- Fate of Favourites: 26052PP232.
- Trainer Records (w-pl-r): Adrian McGuinness 1-1-6, Denis Gerard Hogan 1-0-4, T G McCourt 0-1-4.
Assessment of Top Two:
- No More Porter (IRE):
- Strengths: Considered well handicapped. Showed good form stepping back down from 1m2f after running second. Preferred over many rivals by the Spotlight.
- Weaknesses: Previous wins only on turf.
- Suitability: Dropping back to 1m is expected to be favorable.
- Sierra De Gredos:
- Strengths: Consistent and solid performer at Dundalk (three recent visits). Expected to be involved. RPR 72.
- Weaknesses: None specified regarding current ability, although the Spotlight prefers Oiche Rua.
- Suitability: Expected to handle the return to 1m well.
4. 3.31 Dundalk Irishinjuredjockeys.com Fillies Maiden (€15,000)
7f (AW) | Maiden Ire NM 2yo
TimeWise Master Top Two Rated (Implied): Anushka (IRE) and Take A Bow (IRE).
| Horse | Trainer | Jockey | Odds | OR (RPR/TS) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Anushka (IRE) | Bromhead, Henry De | Foley, Shane | 4/1 | – (94/ -) |
| Take A Bow (IRE) | OBrien, A P | Kelly, S B | 7/2 | – (85/ -) |
Recent Form and Comments:
- Anushka (IRE): Showed promise in a barrier trial. Finished third over 6f at Navan three weeks ago, keeping on well, which suggested she would benefit from a longer trip.
- Take A Bow (IRE): Was fifth on her Curragh debut in difficult ground, beaten by 9 lengths. Recently finished third in a Leopardstown maiden that was dominated by her stable.
Spotlight Verdict: Two lesser lights of Ballydoyle’s all-conquering team, Take A Bow and Purely could shine in this company. However, slight preference is for Henry de Bromhead’s ANUSHKA, whose Navan third suggests she may improve over this extra furlong.
Race Statistics:
- Age Groups: The race is for 2yo fillies only.
- Trainer Records (w-pl-r): G M Lyons 1-0-1, Joseph Patrick O’Brien 0-2-3.
- Fate of Favourites: Not listed in a consolidated section for this race.
Assessment of Top Two:
- Anushka (IRE):
- Strengths: Suggested capability to improve over 7f based on her Navan run. Holds the highest recent RPR (94). Strong contender.
- Weaknesses: Needs to capitalize on potential improvement.
- Suitability: This extra furlong is anticipated to suit her.
- Take A Bow (IRE):
- Strengths: Highly respected, especially after running third in a competitive maiden dominated by her stable. Has to be taken seriously.
- Weaknesses: Beaten some distance on debut. RPR 85, slightly lower than Anushka.
- Suitability: Expected to shine in this company.
5. 4.01 Dundalk Irish Stallion Farms EBF Maiden (€18,000)
7f (AW) | Maiden Ire NM 2yo
TimeWise Master Top Two Rated (Implied): Evening Blues (IRE) and Iron Lily (IRE).
| Horse | Trainer | Jockey | Odds | OR (RPR/TS) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Evening Blues (IRE) | Lyons, G M | Carroll, G F | 15/8 | – (95/88) |
| Iron Lily (IRE) | Harrington, Mrs John | Foley, Shane | 11/4 | – (84/ -) |
Recent Form and Comments:
- Evening Blues (IRE): Was gelded and is now hooded. Was previously a clear second at Naas (6f) to the high-class Albert Einstein. Disappointed as favourite in early June. He remains promising.
- Iron Lily (IRE): Ran a promising debut (second) behind a Ballydoyle favourite at the Curragh (7f, soft to heavy). Expected to improve from that start.
Spotlight Verdict: The eyes are drawn to ACCREDITED who fetched big money at the Arqana Breeze-Up Sale in May and his yard has won the last three renewals of this maiden. However, he will need to be on ball first time out as the now-gelded Evening Blues was second to the selection’s well-regarded stablemate Albert Einstein on his second start, while Iron Lily and Never Ever have to be feared.
Race Statistics:
- Age Groups: The race is for 2yo only.
- Fate of Favourites: 1253122312.
- Trainer Records (w-pl-r): A P O’Brien 5-6-18, G M Lyons 2-2-8, Joseph Patrick O’Brien 1-2-11, Henry De Bromhead 0-1-6, Mrs John Harrington 0-3-5. (Note: A P O’Brien won the last three renewals of this race).
Assessment of Top Two:
- Evening Blues (IRE):
- Strengths: Strong previous form (second to Albert Einstein). Highest RPR (95). Considered promising and feared by the Spotlight. Should handle 7f.
- Weaknesses: Disappointing run in June led to gelding/hood.
- Suitability: Looks ready to challenge.
- Iron Lily (IRE):
- Strengths: Had a positive debut (second) and is expected to improve. RPR 84. Feared by the Spotlight.
- Weaknesses: Needs to replicate soft ground form on the AW.
- Suitability: Good prospect for improvement.
6. 4.35 Dundalk Christmas Party Nights At Dundalk Stadium Handicap (€10,000)
7f (AW) | Handicap Ire NM 3yo+
TimeWise Master Top Two Rated (Implied): Bucky Larson (IRE) and Nikki Swango (IRE).
| Horse | Trainer | Jockey | Odds | OR (RPR/TS) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bucky Larson (IRE) | Sweeney, P | McGettigan, P | 9/2 | 45 (62/ -) |
| Nikki Swango (IRE) | McGuinness, Adrian | Caffrey, Adam | 100/30 | 44 (78/ -) |
Recent Form and Comments:
- Bucky Larson (IRE): A ten-year-old who ran an excellent second over C&D 12 days ago on his stable debut, showing he still has life left in him. This form has since been boosted.
- Nikki Swango (IRE): Her only win was a 6f maiden at this course last year. She shaped well with a staying-on second over 6f here just five days ago. RPR 78 is the highest in the race.
Spotlight Verdict: There is life left in the ten-year-old BUCKY LARSON who has good prospects of going one place better than on his recent stable debut here. Eric Lock rates a big danger on his C&D second on the same card, and a recent 6f run at the venue gives Nikki Swango an obvious chance. Una Mutata is also worth considering.
Race Statistics:
- Age Groups: 3yo 3 wins, 6 places from 51 runners; 4yo+ 7 wins, 14 places from 87 runners.
- Fate of Favourites: 2020032410.
- Trainer Records (w-pl-r): Jamie Flynn 1-0-1, Adrian McGuinness 0-3-7, Denis Gerard Hogan 0-3-7, P J F Murphy 0-1-1, Patrick J McKenna 0-1-3, Thomas Coyle 0-1-1.
Assessment of Top Two:
- Bucky Larson (IRE):
- Strengths: Excellent current form demonstrated by recent C&D second. Form boosted. Good chance of winning.
- Weaknesses: Is a 10-year-old and it has been a long time since his last win.
- Suitability: Proven C&D capability recently.
- Nikki Swango (IRE):
- Strengths: Showing good recent form (staying-on second over 6f). Possesses the highest RPR (78). Has an obvious chance.
- Weaknesses: Only one prior win (6f maiden).
- Suitability: Proven ability at the venue, returning to 7f after a promising 6f run.
7. 5.05 Dundalk Irish Stallion Farms EBF Auction Maiden (€18,000)
6f (AW) | Maiden Ire NM 2yo
TimeWise Master Top Two Rated (Implied): My Cubby Bear (IRE) and Whatchadoin (IRE).
| Horse | Trainer | Jockey | Odds | OR (RPR/TS) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| My Cubby Bear (IRE) | Bromhead, Henry De | Hassett, M W | 13/2 | – (72/ -) |
| Whatchadoin (IRE) | Halley, Josh | Heffernan, J A | 5/2 | 76 (86/ -) |
Recent Form and Comments:
- My Cubby Bear (IRE): Showed promise when beaten around 10 lengths in midfield at the Curragh (7f, soft to heavy). Expected to improve.
- Whatchadoin (IRE): Has placed in 6f maidens. He raced too freely and failed to stay the 7f trip here earlier this month, making the return to 6f suitable. He can go well.
Spotlight Verdict: From a good draw and with the blinkers soon discarded, PLINY can fulfil the promise of his placed efforts at Leopardstown and Down Royal. Whatchadoin is the other form horse and he’s back at 6f after racing too freely last time, though others in here have shown promise and there are newcomers to monitor in the betting.
Race Statistics:
- Age Groups: The race is for 2yo only.
- Fate of Favourites: 21113.
- Trainer Records (w-pl-r): David Marnane 0-1-3, Henry De Bromhead 0-1-2, Kevin Thomas Coleman 0-1-1, Noel Meade 0-1-1.
Assessment of Top Two:
- Whatchadoin (IRE):
- Strengths: Highest RPR (86). Proven form over 6f (placed) and expected to go well back at this trip after struggling over 7f. Considered the form horse.
- Weaknesses: Raced freely when stepped up in trip.
- Suitability: Best suited by 6f.
- My Cubby Bear (IRE):
- Strengths: Demonstrated ability on debut run. Potential to improve.
- Weaknesses: Needs significant improvement based on his RPR (72). Previous run was on soft/heavy ground.
- Suitability: Expected to progress in a maiden race.
8. 5.40 Dundalk Happy Halloween Handicap (€11,500)
1m 4f (AW) | Handicap Ire NM 3yo+
TimeWise Master Top Two Rated (Implied): Lady Kai (IRE) and Lady Plimsoll (IRE).
| Horse | Trainer | Jockey | Odds | OR (RPR/TS) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lady Kai (IRE) | OSullivan, Ross | Hayes, C D | 6/1 | 67 (73/ -) |
| Lady Plimsoll (IRE) | OCallaghan, M D | Powell, J A | 3/1 | 69 (72/ -) |
Recent Form and Comments:
- Lady Kai (IRE): C&D winner last year. Ran second at Tipperary in August. Finished seventh (beaten favourite) in a large field at the Curragh last time.
- Lady Plimsoll (IRE): Proven winner (Ballinrobe claimer). Recently showed she stays the trip when running second at Thurles on her second start for the current stable.
Spotlight Verdict: It could be worth taking a chance that three-time course winner TRISHULI RIVER gets this trip on her first attempt. She is an established AW performer and has an advantage in that respect over the Willie Mullins-trained Polish import Glady Eagle. Others worth considering are Lady Plimsoll and Pearl Jewel.
Race Statistics:
- Age Groups: 3yo 4 wins, 7 places from 36 runners; 4yo+ 6 wins, 13 places from 103 runners.
- Fate of Favourites: 0213021112.
- Trainer Records (w-pl-r): C Byrnes 1-0-1, Adrian McGuinness 0-2-4, Gavin Cromwell 0-2-4.
Assessment of Top Two:
- Lady Kai (IRE):
- Strengths: Proven C&D winner. Recent competitive form (second in August).
- Weaknesses: Failed to perform well as favorite last time out.
- Suitability: Course and distance proven.
- Lady Plimsoll (IRE):
- Strengths: Demonstrated ability to stay the 1m 4f trip (recent second at Thurles). Capable of getting in the mix. Considered worth considering by the Spotlight.
- Weaknesses: RPR 72.
- Suitability: Confirmed stayer over this distance.
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