TimeWise Chronicles

Fakenham; Analysis of the top two Timewise rated+The Spotlight Verdict+Race Stats.

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This analysis works through the Fakenham races chronologically, identifying the TimeWise Master Top Two rated horses (based on the highest overall Racing Post Rating (RPR) listed, as the total TimeWise rating is not explicitly given, RPR serves as the best measure of historical performance) and providing the requested details.

1.07 Fakenham Maiden Hurdle (Class 4, 2m 3y)

RankHorseTimeWise Master Rating (RPR/OR)Odds
1North Of RichmondOR 1195/2
2Storming George (IRE)OR 11010/11

Recent Form and Comments:

  • North Of Richmond (5yo): Won a soft-ground Bangor bumper on his rules debut a year ago. He probably bettered that performance when finishing a close second of 13 under a penalty at Southwell (good) last December. He is expected to win over hurdles soon.
  • Storming George (IRE) (5yo): Won a 16-runner Doncaster bumper (good to soft) on his debut in January. He ran a creditable fifth of 15 in the Grade 2 Aintree bumper (good) in April. He should have a good future over jumps and commands respect.

Spotlight Verdict:
North Of Richmond showed more than enough in bumpers towards the end of last year to suggest he can make a race of this but STORMING GEORGE ran well in a hot Grade 2 bumper at the Aintree festival in April and is a good prospect for novice hurdles this season.

Race Statistics:

  • Age Groups: 4yo 1-7-31, 5yo 8-6-33, 6yo 0-0-7, 7yo 1-0-2.
  • Fate of Favourites: 42311P1213.
  • Trainer Records (in this race): Stuart Edmunds 1-0-3, Alex Hales 0-1-2.

Assessment of Top Two:

  • North Of Richmond (OR 119):
    • Strengths: Consistent bumper form, including a win and a good second carrying a penalty. Highest official rating (OR) in the field.
    • Weaknesses: Appeals less than Storming George due to the latter’s stronger Grade 2 bumper form.
    • Suitability: Expected to transition well to hurdles.
  • Storming George (IRE) (OR 110):
    • Strengths: High-class bumper form, including performing credibly in a Grade 2 contest. Regarded as a good prospect for jumps.
    • Weaknesses: Lower official rating than North Of Richmond.
    • Suitability: Commands respect and is preferred by the Spotlight verdict.

1.37 Fakenham Handicap Novices Chase (Class 4, 2m 59y)

RankHorseTimeWise Master Rating (RPR/OR)Odds
1Belle Montrose (IRE)RPR 1246/4
2PottersjetamayRPR 1219/2

Recent Form and Comments:

  • Belle Montrose (IRE) (6yo): Won a three-runner mares’ chase over the course and distance (C&D) comfortably 12 days ago. She is now 2-3 over fences.
  • Pottersjetamay (6yo): Has a record of 0-14 under all codes. Gave a good account when finishing second of four over C&D in June. Remains unexposed over fences.

Spotlight Verdict:
Recent C&D winner Belle Montrose (second choice) is evidently in good nick. Iskar d’Airy should find this easier than his recent assignment at Kempton and will be dangerous if able to recapture his spring form. However, chasing debutant SECRET DES DIEUX runs this track well and might outclass this field if he jumps soundly.

Race Statistics:

  • Age Groups: 4yo 1-0-2, 5yo 0-0-1, 6yo 0-0-1, 7yo 0-1-1, 8yo 0-0-1.
  • Trainer Records (in this race): James Owen 1-0-1.

Assessment of Top Two:

  • Belle Montrose (IRE) (RPR 124):
    • Strengths: Proven C&D winner and in good current form, being 2-3 over fences.
    • Weaknesses: Must overcome an 8lb rise today.
    • Suitability: Obvious contender given recent success.
  • Pottersjetamay (RPR 121):
    • Strengths: Has shown ability over fences with a good runner-up finish previously over C&D, and is unexposed in the discipline.
    • Weaknesses: Winless (0-14) under rules and has fitness concerns following a five-month break. The race is considered stronger today.

2.07 Fakenham Fillies’ Juvenile Hurdle (Class 4, 2m 3y)

RankHorseTimeWise Master Rating (RPR/OR)Odds
1Manyana BlueRPR 1046/4
2Zahra DodvilleRPR 103Evs

Recent Form and Comments:

  • Manyana Blue (3yo): A keen-going front-runner who has achieved placed results on all six hurdling starts. Notably won by 8 lengths at Newton Abbot (2m1f, good) in August.
  • Zahra Dodville (3yo): Placed on her hurdling debut at Fontainebleau (1m7f, very soft) in March. Showed clear promise in her other two French starts but has a tendency to race too freely. She is making her British debut for a new trainer.

Spotlight Verdict:
Zahra Dodville was placed over hurdles when based in France and will be feared if strong in the betting before today’s British debut but MANYANA BLUE has a pretty solid record in recent months and is taken to dominate from the front. Mystical Mabel came to grief after a wayward jump at the penultimate flight at Kempton recently but ran well to that point and is the other key player.

Race Statistics:

  • Age Groups: 3yo 9-13-68.
  • Fate of Favourites: 113P1P211.
  • Trainer Records (in this race): James Owen 1-0-1.

Assessment of Top Two:

  • Manyana Blue (RPR 104):
    • Strengths: Highly solid recent record, consistent placing/winning over hurdles. Expected to try and dominate from the front.
    • Weaknesses: Has known limitations. Untested on ground slower than good to soft.
    • Suitability: Likely to make a bold bid.
  • Zahra Dodville (RPR 103):
    • Strengths: Good placement form in France. The new trainer (James Owen) has booked Sean Bowen for her debut, suggesting high hopes.
    • Weaknesses: Tendency to race freely. Current ability needs confirmation on British debut.

2.37 Fakenham Handicap Novices Chase (Class 5, 3m 38y)

RankHorseTimeWise Master Rating (RPR/OR)Odds
1Karavomylos (IRE)RPR 1025/2
2BallygellyRPR 1017/1

Recent Form and Comments:

  • Karavomylos (IRE) (6yo): Showed two solid efforts in staying chases in June and July (RPRs 98 and 101). Has since had two runs over hurdles below that level. Returns to fences off 4lb lower following wind surgery.
  • Ballygelly (7yo): Won a match over C&D in April (in headgear) but this effort is an outlier among otherwise modest form. Was pulled up later that month. Returns from a six-month break.

Spotlight Verdict:
A trappy little contest, but a tentative vote goes to KARAVOMYLOS in the hope that recent wind surgery helps him recapture his summer chase form. Reforme went close to breaking his duck at Huntingdon last time out and is second choice, with Midnight Gold also worth considering.

Race Statistics:

  • Age Groups: 5yo 0-1-1, 6yo 2-2-7, 7yo 1-0-5, 8yo 0-0-3, 10yo 0-0-1.
  • Fate of Favourites: 4R3.
  • Trainer Records (in this race): Seamus Mullins 1-0-1.

Assessment of Top Two:

  • Karavomylos (IRE) (RPR 102):
    • Strengths: Highly competitive summer chase form. Has undergone wind surgery and is racing off a lower handicap mark.
    • Weaknesses: Recent hurdle form was disappointing.
    • Suitability: Looks a major player, expected to recapture best chase form.
  • Ballygelly (RPR 101):
    • Strengths: C&D winner.
    • Weaknesses: Form is otherwise modest, pulled up last time out, and returns from a lengthy break with a bit to prove.

3.07 Fakenham Handicap Novices Hurdle (Class 5, 2m 3y)

RankHorseTimeWise Master Rating (RPR/OR)Odds
1Basilette (IRE)RPR 975/2
2Lusso MilanRPR 9714/1

Recent Form and Comments:

  • Basilette (IRE) (6yo): Secured a deserved first hurdle win on his tenth attempt, staying on best over 2m2f at Stratford 11 days ago.
  • Lusso Milan (6yo): He is a 0-11 maiden over hurdles. Shaped better than the bare form suggests when finishing a rallying third at Stratford 11 days ago on his second run for the current stable.

Spotlight Verdict:
Keep It Cool could play a major role on her debut for James Owen and is feared, while last-time-out winner Basilette isn’t passed over lightly. However, a chance is taken on LUSSO MILAN, who ran better than the bare form suggests last time and may have more to offer. Alvesta and One Million Dreams also enter calculations.

Race Statistics:

  • Age Groups: 4yo 0-0-2, 5yo 1-2-4, 6yo 0-0-1, 7yo 0-0-1.
  • Fate of Favourites/Trainer Records: Not available in the sources for this specific race.

Assessment of Top Two:

  • Basilette (IRE) (RPR 97):
    • Strengths: Recent winner who achieved his breakthrough success. The distance drop shouldn’t be an issue.
    • Weaknesses: Must compete off a 4lb higher mark.
    • Suitability: Expected to run another bold race.
  • Lusso Milan (RPR 97):
    • Strengths: Shows signs of improving with the new stable and shaped well recently despite his bare result.
    • Weaknesses: Still seeking his first hurdle win (0-11).
    • Suitability: Preferred by the Spotlight verdict, indicating hidden potential.

3.37 Fakenham Handicap Chase (Class 4, 2m 5f 44y)

RankHorseTimeWise Master Rating (RPR/OR)Odds
1Moviddy (IRE)RPR 1197/2
2Taxus BaccataRPR 11713/2

Recent Form and Comments:

  • Moviddy (IRE) (9yo): Opened her chase account when making all off a handy mark in a four-runner race at Wincanton (3m1f, good) in March. Was safely held in stronger company at Cheltenham next time. Respected returning from a break at this level.
  • Taxus Baccata (7yo): Won her chase debut at Plumpton in March. Since then, she has struggled for form and was beaten 31 lengths on her C&D return this month.

Spotlight Verdict:
Moviddy (second choice) is more exposed than most but is unlikely to be far away, and Mavis Pike should improve on her recent chase debut when returning from a break. However, greater potential may lie with Irish point and hurdle winner GATA BAN who is lightly raced for her age and could well progress for this switch to fences if ready to roll after a break.

Race Statistics:

  • Age Groups: 5yo 0-0-1, 6yo 1-0-3, 8yo 0-1-2.
  • Fate of Favourites/Trainer Records: Not available in the sources for this specific race.

Assessment of Top Two:

  • Moviddy (IRE) (RPR 119):
    • Strengths: Proven chase winner, back at a suitable competitive level. Experienced (9yo) and previously successful after a break.
    • Weaknesses: Noted as being more exposed than others.
    • Suitability: Highly respected here.
  • Taxus Baccata (RPR 117):
    • Strengths: Has previously won over fences.
    • Weaknesses: Has struggled badly for form recently, including a heavy defeat C&D this month, making her hard to trust.

4.07 Fakenham Conditional Jockeys’ Handicap Hurdle (Class 5, 2m 4f 1y)

RankHorseTimeWise Master Rating (RPR/OR)Odds
1Dartmouth RoseRPR 10013/8
2Green AssetRPR 1007/2

Recent Form and Comments:

  • Dartmouth Rose (5yo): Built on solid placed efforts in novice handicaps to open her account over C&D 12 days ago, keeping on well.
  • Green Asset (3yo): Came back to form with the addition of a tongue-tie when finishing fourth (3.5 lengths behind Dartmouth Rose) over C&D 12 days ago.

Spotlight Verdict:
Jackeline (second choice) has obvious claims based on her recent Chepstow reappearance, though her record here tempers enthusiasm. Preference is for recent C&D winner DARTMOUTH ROSE (nap), who is steadily progressive and doesn’t look harshly treated with a 3lb rise. Green Asset merits respect, having finished close up behind the selection last time, and is also considered.

Race Statistics:

  • Age Groups: 4yo 0-0-1, 5yo 0-1-3, 6yo 0-1-3, 7yo 1-0-1, 8yo 0-0-1, 9yo 0-0-1.
  • Fate of Favourites/Trainer Records: Not available in the sources for this specific race.

Assessment of Top Two:

  • Dartmouth Rose (RPR 100):
    • Strengths: Recent C&D winner, steadily progressive, not harshly treated by a 3lb rise.
    • Weaknesses: None explicitly noted.
    • Suitability: Looks the one to beat and is the Spotlight nap.
  • Green Asset (RPR 100):
    • Strengths: Weighted to go close after returning to form (with headgear applied) when finishing close to Dartmouth Rose recently.
    • Weaknesses: None explicitly noted.
    • Suitability: Likely to be in the mix again.

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