This comprehensive response addresses your query by working through all the Kempton races in chronological order, identifying the top two rated horses based on the total TimeWise rating (using the highest Master RPR/RPR where available in the source data), summarising their details, providing the Spotlight Verdict and Race Statistics, and assessing their chances.
4.17 Kempton Handicap Nursery (Class 5) 2yo, 7f (AW)
TimeWise Master Top Two Rated (based on highest Master RPR/RPR):
- Elan D’Or (Highest Master RPR/RPR: 80)
- Lieutenant Kije (Highest Master RPR/RPR: 77)
| Horse | Recent Form and Comments |
|---|---|
| Elan D’Or | Shaped with plenty of promise in his qualifying runs. His best nursery run was when finishing second to a thriving rival at Newmarket last week (7f, good), where he finished clear of the third. He holds obvious claims off the same mark in this lower grade. This will be his AW debut. |
| Lieutenant Kije | He improved with each of his three runs in maiden/novice company. He finished second over C&D ten weeks ago. He has been gelded prior to his nursery debut. He split rivals who are now BHA-rated 95 and 76 when second over C&D in August, suggesting he moves into handicaps with potential for better. |
Spotlight Verdict: Elan D’Or has to prove himself on the AW but last week’s Newmarket second was a cracking effort and he is of obvious interest off the same mark in a lower grade. Dublin Bay and recent course winner Chapman’s Peak are also on the shortlist but LIEUTENANT KIJE is preferred on his nursery debut. He split rivals now BHA-rated 95 and 76 (fifth home now rated 82 as well) when second over C&D in August and he moves into handicaps with the potential for better.
Race Statistics:
- Age Groups: 2yo only.
- Fate of Favourites: 1 win from 4 races (1540).
- Trainer Records (w-pl-r): Mark Usher 0-1-2.
Assessment of Top Two:
- Elan D’Or:
- Strengths: Comes into the race off a strong recent second at Newmarket and runs off the same mark in a lower grade.
- Weaknesses: Making his AW debut.
- Suitability: Holds obvious claims.
- Lieutenant Kije:
- Strengths: Showed strong potential in maiden/novice company, including a C&D second. Is considered well treated on his nursery debut with potential for improvement.
- Weaknesses: Returning after a ten-week break.
- Suitability: Preferred selection in the race.
4.50 Kempton EBF Fillies’ Novice Stakes (Div I) (Class 4) 2yo, 7f (AW)
TimeWise Master Top Two Rated (based on highest Master RPR/RPR):
- Valdorcia (Highest Master RPR/RPR: 88)
- Too Hot To Tango (Highest Master RPR/RPR: 85)
| Horse | Recent Form and Comments |
|---|---|
| Valdorcia | She has finished third in both starts over 6f here, including under Toby Moore 19 days ago. Needs a bit of improvement to win. |
| Too Hot To Tango | Her best effort in her three runs in turf maidens was when she was beaten half a length at Salisbury (7f, good) this month. She is a half-sister to a couple of AW winners (one at Kempton). |
Spotlight Verdict: The market should indicate what is expected from the newcomers with Antelope Riff and Samisen perhaps the pick, but a few of these have already shown a fair level of ability. Dictal and Too Hot To Tango have each been placed on turf, with the former’s latest Goodwood effort working out spectacularly well, but VALDORCIA has already run well here and the extra furlong may enable her to get off the mark.
Race Statistics:
- Age Groups: 2yo fillies only.
- Fate of Favourites: 6 wins from 10 races (6133116124).
- Trainer Records (w-pl-r): Andrew Balding 2-1-4, Charlie Appleby 2-1-6, Clive Cox 1-1-4, James Fanshawe 1-0-4, Simon & Ed Crisford 1-0-1, Hughie Morrison 0-1-4, James Tate 0-2-3, John & Thady Gosden 0-2-8.
Assessment of Top Two:
- Valdorcia:
- Strengths: Has proven form at Kempton (two recent thirds over 6f). The step up to 7f is expected to help her performance.
- Weaknesses: Requires some improvement to secure a win.
- Suitability: Taken to get off the mark.
- Too Hot To Tango:
- Strengths: Ran her best race recently over 7f on turf. Her pedigree suggests suitability for the AW surface.
- Weaknesses: None explicitly noted for this run.
- Suitability: One for the shortlist.
5.25 Kempton EBF Fillies’ Novice Stakes (Div II) (Class 4) 2yo, 7f (AW)
TimeWise Master Top Two Rated (based on highest Master RPR/RPR):
- Callahan (Highest Master RPR/RPR: 82)
- Accademia (Highest Master RPR/RPR: 69)
| Horse | Recent Form and Comments |
|---|---|
| Callahan | Was third of nine on her Wolverhampton debut (7f, Tapeta) and then was beaten half a length into second at Chester (6f, good to soft) 18 days later. |
| Accademia | Has been well held in both previous starts. She did hint at promise when fourth of six at Wolverhampton (7f, Tapeta) this month. Looks more like a horse for handicaps later. |
Spotlight Verdict: Callahan sets the standard having been placed in both starts and, although it’s not an insurmountable one, he should go well again. It would be no surprise to see a better performance from Snow Light given she was sent off just 11-4 for her Newmarket debut in a race that has worked out well, but ONE LAST SONG catches the eye on debut with the stable having done well with its few 2yo newcomers since the summer of 2024.
Race Statistics:
- Age Groups: 2yo fillies only.
- Fate of Favourites: 6 wins from 10 races (6133116124).
- Trainer Records (w-pl-r): Andrew Balding 2-1-4, Charlie Appleby 2-1-6, Clive Cox 1-1-4, Tom Clover 0-2-2, William Haggas 0-2-3.
Assessment of Top Two:
- Callahan:
- Strengths: Sets the standard in this field due to two placed efforts in novice races.
- Weaknesses: The standard is described as “not an insurmountable one”.
- Suitability: Should go well.
- Accademia:
- Strengths: Hinted at promise on her latest start at Wolverhampton.
- Weaknesses: Has been well held overall in her starts; major improvement is required and she is deemed more suitable for handicaps later.
- Suitability: Low chance of winning this novice event.
6.00 Kempton EBF Fillies’ Restricted Novice Stakes (Class 5) 2yo, 1m (AW)
TimeWise Master Top Two Rated (based on highest Master RPR/RPR):
- Tamzan (Highest Master RPR/RPR: 74)
- Prizeland (Highest Master RPR/RPR: 70)
| Horse | Recent Form and Comments |
|---|---|
| Tamzan | Showed promise in three maiden runs. Recorded her best RPR when second of nine at Leicester three weeks ago (1m, good to soft), where Prizeland finished fourth. She has solid form claims now switched to the AW. |
| Prizeland | Kept on steadily for fourth at Leicester on her debut three weeks ago (1m, good to soft), but was in need of the experience. She is thought capable of reversing the placings with Tamzan on this occasion. |
Spotlight Verdict: Supplicate is a newcomer of some interest and the betting should be revealing in a race where the standard isn’t a daunting one to aim at. Tamzan finished in front of PRIZELAND at Leicester three weeks ago but Andrew Balding’s filly was badly in need of the experience on that occasion and can reverse the placings.
Race Statistics:
- Age Groups: 2yo only.
- Fate of Favourites: 2 wins from 3 races (23).
- Trainer Records (w-pl-r): George Boughey 1-0-1, Andrew Balding 0-1-2.
Assessment of Top Two:
- Tamzan:
- Strengths: Solid form claims, having beaten Prizeland recently and recording her best RPR last time.
- Weaknesses: May be vulnerable to Prizeland’s expected improvement.
- Suitability: Should go well.
- Prizeland:
- Strengths: Expected to improve significantly after needing the experience on debut. Highly rated newcomer pedigree.
- Weaknesses: Finished behind Tamzan previously.
- Suitability: Preferred selection to reverse the form.
6.30 Kempton Handicap (London Mile Series Qualifier) (Class 4) 3yo+, 1m (AW)
TimeWise Master Top Two Rated (based on highest Master RPR/RPR):
- Brave Emperor (Highest Master RPR/RPR: 99)
- Borgi (Highest Master RPR/RPR: 95)
| Horse | Recent Form and Comments |
|---|---|
| Brave Emperor | Has a great record on the AW in his younger days (112112), including a win over C&D. He has not run on an artificial surface since April 2023. Showed a bit more when finishing fifth at Haydock (1m, good to soft) 12 days ago. |
| Borgi | All five of his AW wins have come on Tapeta, but he handles Polytrack perfectly well. Finished a close third of 11 over C&D seven days ago. He is a player again from the same mark. |
Spotlight Verdict: Borgi and Cogitate are closely matched on recent C&D running and both should be right there again, but it may be worth chancing BRAVE EMPEROR who showed a bit more at Haydock last time and who had a great record on the AW in his younger days (112112) including a win over C&D. Silca Bay has a good record here and also makes the shortlist on this first attempt at 1m.
Race Statistics:
- Age Groups: 3yo 6-4-24, 4yo+ 4-12-57.
- Fate of Favourites: 2 wins from 10 races (2001452011).
- Trainer Records (w-pl-r): James Fanshawe 1-0-2, Ian Williams 0-1-3.
Assessment of Top Two:
- Brave Emperor:
- Strengths: Superior historical AW form, including a C&D win. Back on Polytrack, which is an interesting angle given his past record.
- Weaknesses: Has not run on AW for a long period (since April 2023).
- Suitability: Interesting contender, worth chancing.
- Borgi:
- Strengths: Proven C&D form, having finished third recently. Races off the same mark.
- Weaknesses: All his five AW wins were on Tapeta, not Polytrack (though he has shown he handles Polytrack).
- Suitability: A strong player and closely matched with other rivals.
7.00 Kempton Handicap (London Sprint Series Qualifier) (Class 4) 3yo+, 6f (AW)
TimeWise Master Top Two Rated (based on highest Master RPR/RPR):
- Coul Angel (Highest Master RPR/RPR: 94)
- Mesaafi (Highest Master RPR/RPR: 93)
| Horse | Recent Form and Comments |
|---|---|
| Coul Angel | A C&D winner in January. He was a ready winner of a Newmarket handicap last month and ran to a similar level when third at Wolverhampton 11 days ago. He is back down in class and is high on the list. |
| Mesaafi | Has two Polytrack wins in June. Ran a cracker in a good Class 2 handicap over C&D last month. Ran fourth at Chelmsford last time out but is well drawn here. |
Spotlight Verdict: Mesaafi and Stanley Spencer are both better than they showed last time, but COUL ANGEL (nap) may not have finished progressing just yet and he can gain his fourth win of the year.
Race Statistics:
- Age Groups: 3yo 1-0-3, 4yo+ 0-2-8.
- Fate of Favourites: Race statistics are unavailable in the source data (non-available/unavailable).
- Trainer Records (w-pl-r): James Tate 1-0-1.
Assessment of Top Two:
- Coul Angel:
- Strengths: Proven C&D winner who is in excellent form (ready winner, recent third) and drops back in class. Potential to progress further.
- Weaknesses: None explicitly listed.
- Suitability: Nap selection, expected to win.
- Mesaafi:
- Strengths: Proven Polytrack winner with recent strong form over C&D in higher class (Class 2). Well drawn.
- Weaknesses: Slightly below best last time.
- Suitability: Cannot be discounted.
7.30 Kempton Handicap (GBBPlus Race) (Class 4) 3yo+, 1m 3f 219y (AW)
TimeWise Master Top Two Rated (based on highest Master RPR/RPR):
- Pride Of Donegal (Highest Master RPR/RPR: 88)
- Caspian King (Highest Master RPR/RPR: 88)
| Horse | Recent Form and Comments |
|---|---|
| Pride Of Donegal | Made it fifth-time lucky when winning over C&D 19 days ago, beating Caspian King (the pair were clear of the third). Remains unexposed after just five starts. |
| Caspian King | Has an 0-9 record. Put up his best effort yet when beaten just over a length into second behind Pride Of Donegal over C&D 19 days ago. He is up 5lb but is 2lb better off with Pride Of Donegal compared to their last meeting. |
Spotlight Verdict: A 7lb higher mark and the outside stall pose questions for this month’s C&D winner PRIDE OF DONEGAL, but he remains unexposed so is taken to follow-up. Caspian King, who finished runner-up to him last time, shouldn’t be far away again while last month’s C&D novice winner Club Class is also worth a second look.
Race Statistics:
- Age Groups: 3yo 6-4-24, 4yo+ 4-12-57.
- Fate of Favourites: 2 wins from 10 races (2001452011).
- Trainer Records (w-pl-r): James Fanshawe 1-0-2, Ian Williams 0-1-3.
Assessment of Top Two:
- Pride Of Donegal:
- Strengths: Recent C&D winner, remains unexposed.
- Weaknesses: Faces a 7lb rise and has a potentially awkward outside stall draw.
- Suitability: Taken to follow up his recent win.
- Caspian King:
- Strengths: Best performance yet achieved over C&D recently, finishing a clear second. Is 2lb better off at the weights with Pride Of Donegal compared to their last run.
- Weaknesses: Still a maiden (0-9).
- Suitability: Should run well again.
8.00 Kempton Handicap (Class 6) 3yo+, 7f (AW)
TimeWise Master Top Two Rated (based on highest Master RPR/RPR):
- Al Waqidi (Highest Master RPR/RPR: 76)
- Chifa (Highest Master RPR/RPR: 76)
| Horse | Recent Form and Comments |
|---|---|
| Al Waqidi | Won his first two starts when trained by Charlie Appleby. Has shown little to celebrate this year. He is opposable despite dropping into Class 6 company. |
| Chifa | His last win was over C&D, getting on for two years ago. He shaped quite nicely here five weeks ago. He is considered off a handy mark. |
Spotlight Verdict: Fiendishly difficult, with few of the field coming here in top form but plenty lurking on potential lucrative marks. Chifa, Penelope Valentine (despite her draw) and South Dakota Sioux (second choice) all come into the reckoning but LUMINOUS WARRIOR looked capable of winning races this summer and he can leave his low-key stable debut behind him.
Race Statistics:
- Age Groups: 3yo 1-4-30, 4yo+ 5-8-43.
- Fate of Favourites: 3 wins from 6 races (231103).
- Trainer Records (w-pl-r): Dean Ivory 1-0-2, Adrian Wintle 0-1-1, John Butler 0-1-5.
Assessment of Top Two:
- Al Waqidi:
- Strengths: Proven winner previously for a top yard, now in the lowest handicap class.
- Weaknesses: Has struggled significantly this year and remains opposable.
- Suitability: Needs a major revival.
- Chifa:
- Strengths: C&D winner in the past, shaped well on a recent Kempton run, and is running off a handy mark.
- Weaknesses: Winless for almost two years.
- Suitability: One to consider.
8.30 Kempton Handicap (Class 6) 3yo+, 6f (AW)
TimeWise Master Top Two Rated (based on highest Master RPR/RPR):
- Smasher (Highest Master RPR/RPR: 74)
- Em Jay Kay (Highest Master RPR/RPR: 73)
| Horse | Recent Form and Comments |
|---|---|
| Smasher | Has two C&D wins this year, the latest being a narrow success four weeks ago. He is 2lb higher now but is capable of another prominent showing. |
| Em Jay Kay | Was 2lb lower than his Wolverhampton win last November. He returned from six months off and left the impression the run was needed when sixth at Yarmouth 16 days ago. Better is expected this time. |
Spotlight Verdict: The Real McKay (second choice) still looks on a competitive mark and she can go well, while last year’s winner Vaunted, Encircle and the class-dropping Spring also coming into the reckoning. APPLE OF MY EYE remains capable of a bigger effort though and this return to 6f could be the catalyst.
Race Statistics:
- Age Groups: 3yo 1-3-9, 4yo+ 1-1-15.
- Fate of Favourites: 3 wins from 3 races (33).
- Trainer Records (w-pl-r): Adrian Wintle 1-0-1.
Assessment of Top Two:
- Smasher:
- Strengths: Strong C&D form with two wins already this year. Can still be prominent despite a 2lb rise.
- Weaknesses: None explicitly listed.
- Suitability: Capable of a prominent showing.
- Em Jay Kay:
- Strengths: Now running off a competitive mark. Expected to improve after a reappearance run.
- Weaknesses: Previous long absence.
- Suitability: Better expected this time.
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