Newton Abbott; Analysis of the top two Timewise rated+The Spotlight Verdict+Race Stats.

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This response provides a chronological analysis of all races at Newton Abbot, identifying the TimeWise Master Top Two rated horses (based on the derived RPR Master figures provided in the sources) and summarising the key information as requested.


1.23 South West Rail Solutions Ltd. Novices’ Hurdle (2m 5f 122y)

RankHorse (Odds)TimeWise Master Rating (RPR Master)
1A Pai De Nom (15/8)113
2Alidam (13/2)106

Recent Form & Comments

  • A Pai De Nom: Clear second in one of his two bumpers. Made a hurdling debut after wind surgery last month and landed the odds with a comfortable win over C&D (good to soft). He sets the standard under a penalty.
  • Alidam: A well-related 4yo who was placed in three of his four hurdle runs in France, including third at Auteuil (2m2f, very soft) in May. This new trip looks worth exploring for him on his British and stable debut.

Spotlight Verdict

Top of the list is Dan Skelton’s A Pai De Nom, who won in good style on his hurdling debut over C&D last month and sets the standard under a penalty. Bumper winner Gentleman Toboot is feared most on his switch to hurdling. The other one on the shortlist is 4yo Alidam.

Race Statistics

  • Age Groups: 6yo 0-1-2, 7yo 0-0-1, 8yo 1-0-1, 9yo 0-0-1.
  • Fate of Favourites: Data not provided in the sources for this race.
  • Trainer Records: Harry Fry 1-0-1, Dan Skelton 0-1-1, David Pipe 0-1-1. Note: These figures are provided in the context of the NH Flat race statistics, but appear to be the only specific Newton Abbot trainer data available in the sources.

Assessment of Top Two

  • A Pai De Nom (Strength/Suitability): Already a C&D hurdle winner, suggesting suitability for the track and distance, and sets a clear standard despite carrying a penalty. He is open to more improvement in this discipline.
  • A Pai De Nom (Weakness): Must carry a winner’s penalty.
  • Alidam (Strength/Suitability): Has solid form from France, placing in three of four hurdle runs. This new, longer trip (2m 5f 122y) is considered worth exploring for him.
  • Alidam (Weakness): Making his British/stable debut, and his best French form came on very soft ground (Auteuil).

1.53 ITUS Events, Safety And Security Conditional Jockeys’ Handicap Hurdle (2m 167y)

RankHorse (Odds)TimeWise Master Rating (RPR Master)
1Zambezi Fix (10/1)131
2Spirits Bay (100/30)127

Recent Form & Comments

  • Zambezi Fix: This veteran finished runner-up at Chepstow (2m, soft/good) in his final two starts last season. He has a decent record when fresh, but has not won since April 2024. His cheekpieces are removed for this race.
  • Spirits Bay: Won a handicap during his novice campaign. He ran well at the weights behind Constitution Hill at Cheltenham in January and threatened in the Imperial Cup before tiring late. He returns after 196 days off, but is well treated on his best form.

Spotlight Verdict

The vote goes to Spirits Bay (nap), who is well handicapped on his best efforts last season and has an in-form claimer booked on his reappearance. The lightly raced 4yo Public Enemy is strongly respected back in a handicap on his return.

Race Statistics

  • Age Groups: 6yo 1-0-3, 7yo 0-1-2, 8yo 0-0-1. Note: Horses up to 10yo (Zambezi Fix and Lucky One) are running.
  • Fate of Favourites: Data not provided in the sources for this race.
  • Trainer Records: Data not provided in the sources for this race.

Assessment of Top Two

  • Zambezi Fix (Strength/Suitability): Holds the highest Master RPR (131) and has a decent record fresh. He finished last season strongly with two second-place finishes.
  • Zambezi Fix (Weakness): Has been winless since April 2024, and others are generally considered more persuasive.
  • Spirits Bay (Strength/Suitability): Highly talented based on running behind top horses like Constitution Hill. He is considered well handicapped by the Spotlight reviewer, who makes him the nap.
  • Spirits Bay (Weakness): Returning from 196 days off and was winless (0-5) last season.

2.23 South West Rail Solutions Ltd. Handicap Chase (2m 75y)

RankHorse (Odds)TimeWise Master Rating (RPR Master)
1Hystery Bere (5/1)131
2Lunar Discovery (4/1)124

Recent Form & Comments

  • Hystery Bere: Has achieved numerous placings since his successful chase debut at Warwick in May 2023. He was pulled up when last seen in April, but has won fresh before.
  • Lunar Discovery: She is 0-6 over fences and prone to making jumping errors, but has shown ability for her current yard. She drops back in grade and wears first-time cheekpieces.

Spotlight Verdict

The return to a sharp 2m could prove ideal for Bond Broker. Breaking Cover should run his race. The 4yo Quantock Hills is well worth monitoring in the market on this chase debut after six months off.

Race Statistics

  • Age Groups: 5yo 0-1-1, 6yo 1-0-2, 9yo 0-0-1, 10yo 0-0-1. Note: Hystery Bere and Lunar Discovery are 8yo.
  • Fate of Favourites: Data not provided in the sources for this race.
  • Trainer Records: Data not provided in the sources for this race.

Assessment of Top Two

  • Hystery Bere (Strength/Suitability): Holds the highest Master RPR (131) and has been successful returning from a break in the past.
  • Hystery Bere (Weakness): Pulled up last time out in April. The sharp 2m distance may not be ideal for him now.
  • Lunar Discovery (Strength/Suitability): Back down in grade with new cheekpieces. She has shown ability for the current yard.
  • Lunar Discovery (Weakness): She is yet to win over fences (0-6) and is known for jumping errors. The sharp 2m is specifically flagged as possibly insufficient test for her.

2.53 CompWiz Solutions For Business Handicap Hurdle (2m 5f 122y)

RankHorse (Odds)TimeWise Master Rating (RPR Master)
1Punta Del Este (14/1)134
2King Of The Lake (11/4)129

Recent Form & Comments

  • Punta Del Este: A triple hurdle winner who has claims based on his best form for a previous trainer. However, he has failed to beat a rival in his two runs for the current yard. He has had wind surgery but needs a major revival after another break.
  • King Of The Lake: Has been seemingly transformed by a wind operation, resulting in three consecutive wins (2m-2m5f). He is up 11lb on his return, but he is open to more progress this season and is considered a key player.

Spotlight Verdict

Slight preference is for King Of The Lake, who is unbeaten in three runs since wind surgery and could continue on an upward curve this season. J J Moon is another to consider, and the Hobbs/White yard has two interesting contenders in Don’t Wind Me Up and Kayf Dancer.

Race Statistics

  • Age Groups: 5yo 0-0-2, 6yo 1-0-2, 7yo 0-1-2, 8yo 0-0-1, 10yo 0-1-1, 11yo 0-0-1.
  • Fate of Favourites: Data not provided in the sources for this race.
  • Trainer Records: Data not provided in the sources for this race.

Assessment of Top Two

  • Punta Del Este (Strength/Suitability): Holds the highest Master RPR (134) and is a triple winner.
  • Punta Del Este (Weakness): Recent form for the current yard is extremely poor, failing to beat a rival, and requires a major revival.
  • King Of The Lake (Strength/Suitability): Highly progressive, winning his last three starts since a wind operation. Open to further progress this season and considered a key player.
  • King Of The Lake (Weakness): Carries an 11lb rise in the weights following his hat-trick.

3.23 South West Rail Solutions Ltd. Handicap Chase (2m 4f 216y)

RankHorse (Odds)TimeWise Master Rating (RPR Master)
T1Theformismighty (9/1)126
T1No Tackle (16/1)126

Recent Form & Comments

  • Theformismighty: Developed into a useful handicap chaser last season once cheekpieces were applied. He was pulled up over C&D 11 days ago (in Class 2). He needs a major revival on this drop back in grade.
  • No Tackle: Both of his chase wins were at Leicester (2m6f, soft). He ended last season on a low note and has a patchy profile. His headgear (L) is now removed.

Spotlight Verdict

The vote goes to Joe Cotton, who won in first-time blinkers at Fontwell in March. Chase debutants Super Sabre Sam and Castlefort are feared most. Point winner Buckna could be a big factor if he takes to this new discipline.

Race Statistics

  • Age Groups: 6yo 1-0-2, 7yo 0-0-3, 8yo 0-1-1, 9yo 0-0-1.
  • Fate of Favourites: Data not provided in the sources for this race.
  • Trainer Records (in this race W-PL-R): Philip Hobbs & Johnson White 1-0-1, Joe Tizzard 0-1-1.

Assessment of Top Two

  • Theformismighty (Strength/Suitability): Achieved a peak effort (near miss at Wetherby) when useful last season. Should benefit from dropping back in class.
  • Theformismighty (Weakness): Lost his way in his last two starts, including being pulled up recently. Needs a major revival.
  • No Tackle (Strength/Suitability): Feasibly treated based on his emphatic win in February. Acts on soft ground.
  • No Tackle (Weakness): Patchy profile and ended last season poorly. Comes with risks attached on his return.

3.53 Celebrating Tony Collier’s 63yrs Dedicated Service Open Maiden NH Flat Race (2m 167y)

RankHorse (Odds)TimeWise Master Rating (RPR Master)
1Eton Mes (15/2)98
2Crest Of Stars (9/2)97

Recent Form & Comments

  • Eton Mes: Showed encouraging form when third on debut at Exeter (2m, soft) in January, and was a 7l fifth at Ffos Las in the spring. He sets the standard on his return, but this standard is not considered high.
  • Crest Of Stars: A half-brother to the smart jumps winner Ashdale Bob. Showed ability with a midfield finish in a Listed race at Cheltenham. He did not build on this form when second of three at Market Rasen in April. He needs improvement on his return; tongue-tie is added.

Spotlight Verdict

Preference is for Paul Nicholls’ new recruit Idaho Fire, who has striking pedigree and was a promising second in his sole point in March. On The Bayou and Soldier Reeves also need a close look in the market.

Race Statistics

  • Age Groups: 4yo 1-2-7, 5yo 0-0-3.
  • Fate of Favourites: Data not provided in the sources for this race.
  • Trainer Records (in this race W-PL-R): Harry Fry 1-0-1, Dan Skelton 0-1-1, David Pipe 0-1-1.

Assessment of Top Two

  • Eton Mes (Strength/Suitability): Sets the best standard of the runners with rules experience. Proven on soft ground.
  • Eton Mes (Weakness): The standard he sets is generally low compared to the potential of newcomers.
  • Crest Of Stars (Strength/Suitability): Possesses excellent jumps pedigree and has demonstrated ability in a Listed bumper. New tongue-tie applied for his return.
  • Crest Of Stars (Weakness): Needs to build on his latest performance.

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