Southwell; Analysis of the Timewise Top two rated+The Spotlight Verdict+Race Stats.

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This comprehensive response works through the Southwell races chronologically, identifying the TimeWise Master Top Two rated horses in each race based on their numerical master rating (M), summarising their form and comments, providing the Spotlight Verdict and available race statistics, and assessing their chances.


4.10 Midnite: Built For 2025 Not 2005 Apprentice Handicap (1m 6f 21y)

TimeWise Master Top Two Rated:

  1. Different Tone (5yo) – Master Rating: 80
  2. Betelgeuse (3yo) – Master Rating: 76

(Note: Dance Time is also rated 76 M. Different Tone is listed as the clear top rated by the master rating.)

Recent Form and Comments:

  • Different Tone: Won a 1m 4f Polytrack handicap in August 2023 in one of his nine starts for Ed Walker. He was sold for 42,000gns in October 2023 and finished second of five at Chelmsford on debut for the Horse Watchers (1m 6f). He is low mileage but has been absent for 720 days. He has now joined Rebecca Menzies.
  • Betelgeuse: Broke his maiden at the eighth attempt by running away with a C&D handicap two weeks ago. This was his first run after a gelding operation and he was well backed. He faces an 8lb rise, which was not deemed excessive.

Spotlight Verdict:
The verdict suggests that QUEEN ROSLYN has been progressing well following her wind operation in June and can score again back on AW and down in class. Betelgeuse ran away with a C&D handicap but faces a deeper race here which demands further progress. Dance Time (second choice), Prince Quattro and Queensland Boy also have something to recommend them.

Race Statistics:

  • Age Groups: Not provided in a dedicated table for this meeting.
  • Fate of Favourites: Not provided in a dedicated table for this meeting.
  • Trainer Records: Not provided in a dedicated table for this meeting.

Assessment of Top Two Chances:

  • Different Tone (Strengths, Weaknesses, Suitability): He is low mileage and previously won on Polytrack. His last outing was a second-place finish over 1m 6f. The major weakness is his lengthy absence of 720 days, meaning the betting market should be revealing.
  • Betelgeuse (Strengths, Weaknesses, Suitability): He is well suited to the C&D, having won decisively here recently. He showed notable improvement following his gelding operation. His main weakness is stepping up in class after winning what the Spotlight describes as a “weak race”.

4.45 Always Gamble Responsibly At BetMGM Nursery Handicap (1m 14y)

TimeWise Master Top Two Rated:

  1. Trust No One (2yo) – Master Rating: 67
  2. Thanh Nam (2yo) – Master Rating: 65

Recent Form and Comments:

  • Trust No One: Appeared to show more in terms of RPR at Wolverhampton three weeks ago (6f). However, he was reportedly never going the pace in that steadily run affair. He needs significant improvement for this yard, is being upped in trip, and is fitted with new cheekpieces. He has also been gelded since his last appearance.
  • Thanh Nam: Travelled much more sweetly when upped to 1m 2f at Chelmsford last week. He couldn’t quicken as well as the winner there (who had previously finished behind Lady Milton at Kempton). He is expected to give his running.

Spotlight Verdict:
LADY MILTON’s Kempton win has proven solid, and a 4lb rise may underestimate her performance, making her the selection. Harswell River can go well if back down in class, and Twilight Serenade (second choice) looks likely to improve stepped up in trip. Thanh Nam is expected to run his race.

Race Statistics:

  • Age Groups: Not provided in a dedicated table for this meeting.
  • Fate of Favourites: Not provided in a dedicated table for this meeting.
  • Trainer Records: Not provided in a dedicated table for this meeting.

Assessment of Top Two Chances:

  • Trust No One (Strengths, Weaknesses, Suitability): The switch to a longer trip (1m) and the addition of cheekpieces after being gelded offer potential for progression. His weakness is his previous modest form and his struggle with pace over shorter distances.
  • Thanh Nam (Strengths, Weaknesses, Suitability): He showed good stamina when travelling sweetly over 1m 2f recently, indicating suitability for the mile trip. His weakness is that he failed to quicken effectively last time out and is preferred less for the win than others.

5.15 Always Gamble Responsibly At BetMGM EBF Restricted Maiden Stakes (6f 17y)

TimeWise Master Top Two Rated:

  1. Black Missile (2yo) – Master Rating: 79
  2. Caballo Grande (2yo) – Master Rating: 77

Recent Form and Comments:

  • Black Missile: On his debut at Leicester (5f), he was reportedly going nowhere halfway through the race. However, he finished strongly, only beaten a neck into third place. It is suggested that the 6f trip will suit him and he is open to improvement in this uncompetitive race.
  • Caballo Grande: Had an encouraging start to his career, finishing third of seven in a Goodwood novice 19 days ago (6f). He did flash his tail in the final furlong, which may be attributed to inexperience. He is viewed as open to improvement.

Spotlight Verdict:
BLACK MISSILE is selected to win, having finished strongly on his Leicester debut and should benefit from the step up in trip. Velvet Rhythm (second choice) is trying a new trip and is highly considered. See That Spark and Caballo Grande are noted as once-raced potential improvers.

Race Statistics:

  • Age Groups: Not provided in a dedicated table for this meeting.
  • Fate of Favourites: Not provided in a dedicated table for this meeting.
  • Trainer Records: Not provided in a dedicated table for this meeting.

Assessment of Top Two Chances:

  • Black Missile (Strengths, Weaknesses, Suitability): His strong late run on debut indicates the 6f distance will suit and suggests he has significant improvement potential. He is a good chance in this race. His only weakness noted was a slow start on debut.
  • Caballo Grande (Strengths, Weaknesses, Suitability): Showed promise on his 6f debut and is open to improving. His noted weakness was seemingly flashing his tail late due to inexperience.

5.45 Make The Move To Midnite Handicap (6f 17y)

TimeWise Master Top Two Rated:

  • Jungle Drums (3yo) – Master Rating: 102
  • Artagnan (3yo) – Master Rating: 102

(Note: These two horses are tied for the highest master rating.)

Recent Form and Comments:

  • Jungle Drums: A Listed winner at 2yrs who returned to form unexpectedly by making all to dead-heat with Artagnan at Chelmsford two weeks ago. Despite a 2lb rise, he retains handicapping scope.
  • Artagnan: Produced his best effort for his new stable when running on late to dead-heat with Jungle Drums at Chelmsford. He is relatively low mileage and may have the edge over Jungle Drums today.

Spotlight Verdict:
BADRI (nap) is selected as he is well suited by the conditions and performed creditably in the Ayr Gold Cup. He holds strong claims. Artagnan dead-heated with Jungle Drums but, having come from well back, may have the edge today. Never Just A Dream and Hucklesbrook are also serious contenders.

Race Statistics:

  • Age Groups: 3yo 1-1-2, 4yo+ 0-2-10.
  • Fate of Favourites: Not provided in a dedicated table for this meeting.
  • Trainer Records: Not provided in a dedicated table for this meeting.

Assessment of Top Two Chances:

  • Jungle Drums (Strengths, Weaknesses, Suitability): Recent winning form (dead-heat) and has scope despite the small weight rise. His tactic of making all last time worked well. A potential weakness is that Artagnan, who ran on late, may have the edge on him today.
  • Artagnan (Strengths, Weaknesses, Suitability): Low mileage and showed a good finishing burst in the dead-heat. The Spotlight suggests he may have the edge over Jungle Drums. The main weakness is that the Spotlight ultimately selects Badri as the one to beat.

6.15 Midnite A Next Generation Betting App Handicap (5f)

TimeWise Master Top Two Rated:

  1. Toptime (7yo) – Master Rating: 82
  2. Juno Star (3yo) – Master Rating: 79

Recent Form and Comments:

  • Toptime: Previously won a C&D handicap off this exact mark in December. He added a Nottingham success in August and his latest defeat at Pontefract is excusable. Conditions suit, making him highly listed.
  • Juno Star: Won an apprentice handicap over C&D last week, breaking his maiden status on his 14th attempt. He runs off the same mark today and is of obvious interest. He is also declared for a race at Chelmsford.

Spotlight Verdict:
Preference is for TOPTIME, who is expected to quickly bounce back after a wide run at Pontefract. His peak performance was a win over C&D last December. Good Point has threatened to win a handicap, and Juno Star also has something to recommend him.

Race Statistics:

  • Age Groups: 3yo 1-0-3, 4yo+ 0-2-7.
  • Fate of Favourites: Not provided in a dedicated table for this meeting.
  • Trainer Records: Trainer Michael Dods has a record in this race of 0 wins, 1 place, from 1 runner (0-1-1).

Assessment of Top Two Chances:

  • Toptime (Strengths, Weaknesses, Suitability): Holds course winning form over C&D off this mark. Expected to quickly return to form after his last excusable run. No obvious weaknesses mentioned based on his current form/mark.
  • Juno Star (Strengths, Weaknesses, Suitability): Proven C&D winner recently and runs under no penalty today. Suitability is high based on recent win. Weakness is that he is stepping out quickly and took 14 attempts to win; also entered elsewhere.

6.45 Read Meg Nicholls’ Blog At betmgm.co.uk Fillies’ Novice Stakes (1m 4f 15y)

TimeWise Master Top Two Rated:

  1. Pyleates (3yo) – Master Rating: 73
  2. Desert Spring (3yo) – Master Rating: 63

Recent Form and Comments:

  • Pyleates: Well-related filly (half-sister to Pyledriver). Finished a well-held fourth of nine on her debut over 1m 4f (AW, Kempton) behind useful rivals. Expected to improve and is considered in the mix.
  • Desert Spring: Made an eye-catching reappearance when third at Leicester (1m 2f, good to soft) and was judged to have been unlucky in that race. She is stepping up to 1m 4f, which should suit, and she is a strong contender who is open to more progress.

Spotlight Verdict:
DESERT SPRING is the selection, as she sets a clear standard on her close third at Leicester and is open to more progress on this step up to 1m 4f. Pyleates (second choice) is the main threat, being well-related and having shown promise on debut.

Race Statistics:

  • Age Groups: Not provided in a dedicated table for this meeting.
  • Fate of Favourites: Not provided in a dedicated table for this meeting.
  • Trainer Records: Not provided in a dedicated table for this meeting.

Assessment of Top Two Chances:

  • Pyleates (Strengths, Weaknesses, Suitability): Excellent pedigree. Debut run was promising given the quality of the opposition. Expected to progress. Suitability for the distance is supported by pedigree.
  • Desert Spring (Strengths, Weaknesses, Suitability): Showed high ability and looked unlucky in her most recent run. Sets the clear standard based on form and is expected to relish the longer trip. Her main weakness is a modest initial start to her career the previous autumn.

7.15 Always Gamble Responsibly At BetMGM Handicap (1m 14y)

TimeWise Master Top Two Rated:

  1. Fantastic Fox (7yo) – Master Rating: 115
  2. Whitcombe Rockstar (6yo) – Master Rating: 113

Recent Form and Comments:

  • Fantastic Fox: Has not won since January 2024 and has not had clemency from the handicapper. His latest AW run (Newcastle, June) saw him finish fourth after meeting trouble. He should be in the shake-up if running anywhere near that level.
  • Whitcombe Rockstar: Had a successful 2024, but the handicapper has been dominant this year. He ran respectably at Kempton last month, and his subsequent turf defeat can be discounted.

Spotlight Verdict:
The pedigree and previous runs of SUPIDO (now 3lb lower than his Britannia effort) push him to the top of the list, ahead of Dividend (3-3 on AW). Nikovo and Fantastic Fox look the pick of the older horses.

Race Statistics:

  • Age Groups: 3yo 1-0-2, 4yo+ 0-1-4.
  • Fate of Favourites: Not provided in a dedicated table for this meeting.
  • Trainer Records: Not provided in a dedicated table for this meeting.

Assessment of Top Two Chances:

  • Fantastic Fox (Strengths, Weaknesses, Suitability): Showed good form on AW at Newcastle recently despite trouble. He is considered the pick of the older horses. Weaknesses include a long losing run (since Jan 2024) and a tough rating.
  • Whitcombe Rockstar (Strengths, Weaknesses, Suitability): Ran respectably last month at Kempton. His main weakness is that the handicapper has kept a grip on him this year, and others appear safer options.

7.45 Bet £10 Get £40 With BetMGM Handicap (Div I) (1m 14y)

TimeWise Master Top Two Rated:

  • Tonal (5yo) – Master Rating: 73
  • Spirit Of Bowland (6yo) – Master Rating: 73

(Note: These two horses are tied for the highest master rating.)

Recent Form and Comments:

  • Tonal: Returned to form last week by running away with a 0-55 at Chelmsford (1m). He was well backed and is carrying a 6lb penalty, meaning he is 6lb well in. He holds obvious claims for a stable in excellent form.
  • Spirit Of Bowland: Achieved a ready C&D win in April off a 3lb lower mark, and replicating that effort would give him strong claims. He has not been at his peak recently but possesses the ability to feature.

Spotlight Verdict:
TONAL is the nap selection, as he “fairly bolted up” last week and looks to have a golden opportunity to defy his penalty. Marry The Night (second choice) ran well over C&D last week. Spirit Of Bowland and Kondratiev Wave are handicapped to go close.

Race Statistics:

  • Age Groups: 3yo 1-2-6, 4yo+ 0-0-5.
  • Fate of Favourites: Not provided in a dedicated table for this meeting.
  • Trainer Records: Not provided in a dedicated table for this meeting.

Assessment of Top Two Chances:

  • Tonal (Strengths, Weaknesses, Suitability): Recent emphatic winner. He is 6lb well in under his penalty. Yard is in fine form. He is highly suitable and the selection to win. No obvious weaknesses.
  • Spirit Of Bowland (Strengths, Weaknesses, Suitability): Proven C&D winner. Ability to feature. His weakness is that he has not been at his peak in recent starts.

8.15 Bet £10 Get £40 With BetMGM Handicap (Div II) (1m 14y)

TimeWise Master Top Two Rated:

  1. Back From Dubai (8yo) – Master Rating: 67
  2. Heretic (6yo) – Master Rating: 66

Recent Form and Comments:

  • Back From Dubai: A five-time course winner. His best run this year was a neck defeat over C&D last month. The form of that race has been boosted by four subsequent winners (the first, third, fifth, and eighth). A 1lb rise is considered lenient, giving him strong claims.
  • Heretic: Was a ready winner of a C&D handicap last week, pulling clear with another horse who subsequently ran well. He faces a 6lb higher mark today.

Spotlight Verdict:
BACK FROM DUBAI is the selection to gain another course success, as he is considered to hold Heretic on their run here last month. Homme De Fer, who will appreciate the return to a mile, is nominated as the main danger.

Race Statistics:

  • Age Groups: Not provided in a dedicated table for this meeting.
  • Fate of Favourites: Not provided in a dedicated table for this meeting.
  • Trainer Records: Not provided in a dedicated table for this meeting.

Assessment of Top Two Chances:

  • Back From Dubai (Strengths, Weaknesses, Suitability): Excellent course record (five wins). His last C&D run was very strong, and the subsequent form suggests his current mark is generous. He is suitable and the selection to win. No obvious weaknesses.
  • Heretic (Strengths, Weaknesses, Suitability): Recent C&D winner who pulled clear readily. His main weakness is that he is held by Back From Dubai on a previous course run, and he faces a 6lb higher mark today.

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