This response provides the requested analysis for all Ascot races in chronological order, based on the TimeWise Master Top Two rated horses.
1. 12:55 Grundon Waste Management Conditional Jockeys’ Novices’ Handicap Hurdle
(2m 3f 63y, Class 4)
| Rank | Horse (Age/Running Style) | TimeWise Master Rating |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | At The Oche (4/L) | 120 |
| 2 | Byzantium (5/H) | 116 |
Recent Form and Comments Summary
- At The Oche: Remains very unexposed over hurdles after only two attempts. Made quite heavy weather of winning a Ffos Las maiden (2m, good) recently at 1-5 odds. The form of his clear second at Newton Abbot in September was very well advertised by the winner (last weekend’s Cheltenham Grade 2 third Jaminska).
- Byzantium: Secured a comfortable handicap win at Warwick (2m3f, good) in June on his seventh hurdling start. Easily followed up that success in a modest novice event at Newton Abbot (2m5f, good) later that month.
Spotlight Verdict
Most of these are still open to improvement but AT THE OCHE is seemingly on a lenient mark for this handicap debut and can hit the bullseye. He has strong claims if judged on the form of his clear second at Newton Abbot in September. Sage Green (second choice) made a good start to his hurdling career and can improve over today’s longer trip. Mount Anglesby is next on the list.
Race Statistics
| Category | Details |
|---|---|
| Age Groups | 4yo 0-0-3, 5yo 5-10-40, 6yo 2-2-19, 7yo 0-1-5, 8yo 0-0-1 |
| Fate of Favourites | 1114134 |
| Trainer Records | Nicky Henderson 0-2-4 (W-PL-R in this race) |
Assessment of the Top Two
- At The Oche (120):
- Strengths: Unexposed potential, debut handicap mark looks lenient, demonstrated high-class form through his second place at Newton Abbot.
- Weaknesses: Found his recent maiden win harder than expected.
- Suitability: Making his handicap debut.
- Byzantium (116):
- Strengths: Recent dual winner, showing improved form in the summer, possibility of further progress.
- Weaknesses: Has a “nagging concern” regarding his tendency to race too freely.
2. 1:30 Ascot Underwriting Novices’ Limited Handicap Chase
(2m 2f 181y, Class 3)
| Rank | Horse (Age/Running Style) | TimeWise Master Rating |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Old Gregorian (6/P) | 152 |
| 2 | Viroflay (8/L) | 146 |
Recent Form and Comments Summary
- Old Gregorian: Was nicely progressive over hurdles last season, including a third-place finish in the valuable Morebattle at Kelso in March (off only 2lb lower). Got his first race over fences easily at Wetherby when his sole rival unseated, but he generally jumped well. Respected. (Note: Listed as a Non-Runner in the Spotlight source for this race).
- Viroflay: His previous career included point/hunter chases. Last ran to a high level when second to Its On The Line in a 3m hunter chase at Punchestown. He is a front-runner who is suited by a sound surface.
Spotlight Verdict
None of the four runners [Viroflay, No Questions Asked, Don’t Tell Su, Lylian] can be discarded. The jumping ability of the field will be tested when Viroflay goes off hard up front, likely over a trip short of his best. LYLIAN is the preference, possessing the benefit of chasing experience from France (finishing first and second during the summer) and lurks off a light weight.
Race Statistics
| Category | Details |
|---|---|
| Age Groups | 4yo 1-0-3, 5yo 1-7-17, 6yo 5-6-30, 7yo 3-0-20, 8yo 0-0-1, 9yo 0-0-2 |
| Fate of Favourites | 2P31151352 |
| Trainer Records | Nicky Henderson 2-0-4, Paul Nicholls 0-4-9 (W-PL-R in this race) |
Assessment of the Top Two
- Old Gregorian (152):
- Strengths: Strong form over hurdles last season, showed competence in jumping during his recent chase debut win.
- Weaknesses: The Spotlight source lists him as a non-runner.
- Viroflay (146):
- Strengths: Ran to a high standard in a hunter chase recently, known front-runner and the jockey is familiar with him, suits a sound surface.
- Weaknesses: The distance is shorter than his usual trips. His front-running style is expected to test the jumping of the others.
3. 2:05 Grundon Waste Management Handicap Chase (Premier Handicap)
(2m 172y, Class 1)
| Rank | Horse (Age/Running Style) | TimeWise Master Rating |
|---|---|---|
| Jt 1 | L’Eau Du Sud (7/P) | 159 |
| Jt 1 | Sans Bruit (7/P) | 159 |
Recent Form and Comments Summary
- L’Eau Du Sud: Ranked as one of Britain’s best 2m novice chasers last season, holding his own in Grade 1 events at Cheltenham and Aintree. He did not jump as well as he can when tried in cheekpieces at Aintree (now left off). He may prefer softer ground.
- Sans Bruit: Won valuable handicaps in the spring at Aintree (good to soft) and Plumpton (good), racing up with the pace throughout. These wins resulted in a collective rise of 14lb in the weights. He generally tends to peak in the spring.
Spotlight Verdict
Given Venetia Williams’ strong recent record in this race (three winners and a second since 2013), last year’s hero MARTATOR should be raring to go. He loves Ascot, appreciates good ground, and lurks on a dangerous mark. Issar d’Airy is another appealingly treated contender whose record when fresh bodes well. Classy second-season chaser L’Eau du Sud and Special Cadeau also need to be considered.
Race Statistics
| Category | Details |
|---|---|
| Age Groups | 5yo 1-1-7, 6yo 1-4-12, 7yo 6-6-27, 8yo 1-3-28, 9yo 1-2-12, 10yo 0-1-4, 11yo 0-1-4 |
| Fate of Favourites | 363P223514 |
| Trainer Records | Paul Nicholls 2-1-11, Venetia Williams 2-3-7, Dan Skelton 1-0-11, Harry Fry 1-0-1, Gary & Josh Moore 0-2-2 (W-PL-R in this race) |
Assessment of the Top Two
- L’Eau Du Sud (159):
- Strengths: High-class novice form, competitive in Grade 1 company, cheekpieces removed, potentially leading to better jumping.
- Weaknesses: Carries a high weight, concern he may prefer softer ground.
- Suitability: Classy second-season chaser who must be in the reckoning.
- Sans Bruit (159):
- Strengths: Proven winner of valuable handicaps, runs prominently.
- Weaknesses: Has received a significant 14lb hike for his recent wins, his best form tends to come in the spring.
4. 2:35 Gl Events Novices’ Hurdle
(1m 7f 157y, Class 3)
| Rank | Horse (Age/Running Style) | TimeWise Master Rating |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Start Again (5/L) | 108 |
| 2 | Trustintimes (4/P) | 107 |
Recent Form and Comments Summary
- Start Again: Achieved his first win when making all in a six-runner Exeter maiden (2m2f, good to firm) 11 days ago, winning by 6 lengths. However, he flopped previously on his handicap debut.
- Trustintimes: Secured two hurdle wins on good ground at Uttoxeter, the latest in June, asserting on the run-in. He is currently on a four-timer (including a bumper win) and is expected to do better still.
Spotlight Verdict
The roll of honour for Nicky Henderson in this race is notable, and his runner SOOMAROY (a debutant under rules but an expensive Irish point winner) is favored to take advantage of the weight he receives from penalized hurdle winners. The penalized winners Military Alliance, Trustintimes, and Start Again are preferred in that order.
Race Statistics
| Category | Details |
|---|---|
| Age Groups | 4yo 6-7-39, 5yo 4-8-38, 6yo 0-2-6, 7yo 0-0-3 |
| Fate of Favourites | 1222112111 |
| Trainer Records | Nicky Henderson 4-1-6, Dan Skelton 0-1-4, Fergal O’Brien 0-1-1, Harry Fry 0-1-1 (W-PL-R in this race) |
Assessment of the Top Two
- Start Again (108):
- Strengths: Recent winning run, dictates pace (made all).
- Weaknesses: Needs substantial improvement to compete successfully in this class, is a penalized runner.
- Suitability: Demands further progress.
- Trustintimes (107):
- Strengths: Proven winner (on four-timer), capable of further progress.
- Weaknesses: Must give weight all around as a penalized runner.
5. 3:10 Lavazza Handicap Hurdle
(1m 7f 157y, Class 2)
| Rank | Horse (Age/Running Style) | TimeWise Master Rating |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Washington (9/H) | 140 |
| 2 | Ooh Betty (7/P) | 137 |
Recent Form and Comments Summary
- Washington: Won at Chepstow last October and followed up with a valuable handicap win in Ireland. Returned to form three weeks ago by winning the same Chepstow race (2m, good), finishing miles clear of rivals. Carries 4lb extra today.
- Ooh Betty: Capable of setting the pace. Produced her best efforts last term over C&D and was a close third in the Scottish Champion Hurdle in April (1lb higher today). She flopped in May (last seen) and has since had her third wind operation. She won last November after a break and wind surgery.
Spotlight Verdict
The preference is for INDEMNITY (nap), who remains a strong candidate for further improvement and is selected to complete the four-timer. Washington, back on song following his Chepstow win, is feared most, ahead of Alexei and Dance And Glance.
Race Statistics
| Category | Details |
|---|---|
| Age Groups | 4yo 0-3-19, 5yo 4-9-31, 6yo 4-6-34, 7yo 2-1-13, 8yo 0-0-8, 9yo 0-1-6, 10yo 0-0-4 |
| Fate of Favourites | 1010613F53 |
| Trainer Records | Anthony Honeyball 1-0-1, Harry Fry 0-3-6, Paul Nicholls 0-5-13 (W-PL-R in this race) |
Assessment of the Top Two
- Washington (140):
- Strengths: Proven winner over 2m, recently won easily on return (miles clear), shown form in valuable handicaps.
- Weaknesses: Raised 4lb for the recent win.
- Ooh Betty (137):
- Strengths: C&D form shown last term, has a winning record fresh following wind operations/breaks, often races prominently.
- Weaknesses: Flopped in her last outing in May, needs to resume previous progress.
6. 3:45 Sodexo Live! Gold Cup Handicap Chase (Premier Handicap)
(2m 7f 185y, Class 1)
| Rank | Horse (Age/Running Style) | TimeWise Master Rating |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | The Changing Man (8/P) | 151 |
| 2 | Olivers Travels (7/H) | 149 |
Recent Form and Comments Summary
- The Changing Man: Highly consistent last season, recording four runner-up finishes, notably in a strong C&D handicap and the Ultima at Cheltenham in March. Described as tough and consistent.
- Olivers Travels: Has been running bang in form on his favoured good ground. He is an assured stayer who narrowly failed in his hat-trick bid at Kelso last week (3m2f, good).
Spotlight Verdict
This looks to be a good renewal of the Kerry National, and preference is for LE COQ HARDI who finished a respectable fourth in that race. The Changing Man has cast-iron claims based on last season’s achievements and is respected on his return to the course where he secured his sole chase success. Henry’s Friend and Beachcomber can also be competitive.
Race Statistics
| Category | Details |
|---|---|
| Age Groups | 5yo 1-0-1, 6yo 2-1-16, 7yo 3-5-38, 8yo 3-7-34, 9yo 0-5-23, 10yo 0-2-8, 11yo 0-1-7, 12yo 1-0-1, 13yo 0-1-1, 14yo 0-0-1 |
| Fate of Favourites | 135312P351 |
| Trainer Records | David Pipe 0-1-1, Joe Tizzard 0-1-1, Nicky Henderson 0-1-4, Tom Lacey 0-2-3 (W-PL-R in this race) |
Assessment of the Top Two
- The Changing Man (151):
- Strengths: Exceptional consistency, strong claims based on high-level handicap form (Ultima runner-up), highly respected returning to his winning course.
- Weaknesses: Remains on a challenging mark.
- Suitability: Tough, consistent chaser.
- Olivers Travels (149):
- Strengths: Proven assured stayer, in excellent form recently, winning or placing multiple times.
- Weaknesses: May be outclassed by rivals considered more “intriguing” for the win.
7. 4:20 Ascot Roundtable Open National Hunt Flat Race
(1m 7f 157y, Class 2)
| Rank | Horse (Age/Running Style) | TimeWise Master Rating |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Bathara (4/P) | 112 |
| 2 | Dartmouth Jet (4/H) | 103 |
Recent Form and Comments Summary
- Bathara: Was successful on his second start under rules, winning at Warwick (good) after undergoing wind surgery. This four-year-old has to concede weight to rivals who are unexposed, but he is clearly a contender.
- Dartmouth Jet: Won a National Hunt Flat race at Worcester (good) by a length at 28-1 odds. Now heads to a top track carrying a penalty. The runner-up from his recent win has subsequently been well held.
Spotlight Verdict
RUN AWAY JOE is the selection, having stayed on well in his second Irish point. Governors Island, Hitintheheadlines, and the penalised Bathara are also respected.
Race Statistics
| Category | Details |
|---|---|
| Age Groups | 4yo 10-15-73, 5yo 0-2-15, 6yo 0-0-5 |
| Fate of Favourites | 1154001514 |
| Trainer Records | Paul Nicholls 3-1-6, Dan Skelton 0-1-2, Harry Fry 0-1-2, Syd Hosie 0-1-1 (W-PL-R in this race) |
Assessment of the Top Two
- Bathara (112):
- Strengths: Recent winner under rules, proved ability after wind surgery, highly respected contender.
- Weaknesses: Has to concede weight to several unexposed rivals.
- Suitability: Penalized runner.
- Dartmouth Jet (103):
- Strengths: Recent winner at Worcester.
- Weaknesses: Faces a tougher task here carrying a penalty at a top track, the form of his win has not been recently boosted.
TimeWise Chronicles 
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