Ayr; Analysis of the Timewise Top two rated+The Spotlight Verdict+Race Stats.

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This analysis draws upon the TimeWise Master Ratings provided in the sources to identify the Top Two rated horses for each race at the Ayr meeting, presented in chronological order.


1. 12.48 Rest At Neilston EBF “National Hunt” Novices’ Hurdle (2m)

TimeWise Master Top Two Rated:

  1. Upon Tweed (IRE) (11/4)
  2. Highland Fashion (5/1)

Summary of Recent Form and Comments:

  • Upon Tweed (5yo): Created a very good impression when winning a Newcastle bumper (good to soft) on debut in February, drawing over 8 lengths clear. The form of that win has since been very well advertised by the runner-up. He is a half-brother to the smart jumper If In Doubt. He has not run since (261 days ago) but looks a good prospect for novice hurdles.
  • Highland Fashion (6yo): Was 0-6 over hurdles last season but demonstrated fair form. Her best recent effort was a close second in first-time cheekpieces at Kelso (2m5f, good to soft) two starts ago. She should be fine back at 2m for this reappearance after 192 days off.

Spotlight Verdict:
It’s hard to get away from UPON TWEED, who was far too good for recent Cheltenham novice hurdle winner Conman John when winning a Newcastle bumper in February. Stride On, another Newcastle bumper winner, is second choice, while Highland Fashion, L’Arme De Bonheur and Moon Phases may also interest each-way backers.

Race Statistics:

  • Age Groups (W-Pl-R): 4yo 0-0-8, 5yo 4-7-25, 6yo 0-0-4.
  • Fate of Favourites: 1335.
  • Trainer Records (W-Pl-R): Nicky Richards 1-1-4, N W Alexander 0-1-5.

Assessment of the Top Two:

  • Upon Tweed (Strengths): Brings exceptional bumper form to his hurdles debut, proven by the subsequent success of the runner-up. He possesses significant untapped potential.
  • Upon Tweed (Weaknesses/Suitability): Faces a return after a lengthy absence.
  • Highland Fashion (Strengths): Has competitive form over hurdles, having been close second off a similar mark previously. Expected to handle the 2m trip on reappearance.
  • Highland Fashion (Weaknesses/Suitability): Needs to shed her maiden status over hurdles (0-6).

2. 1.23 ATS Roofing Alex Sneddon Stagdoo Handicap Chase (3m)

TimeWise Master Top Two Rated:

  1. Cowboy Cooper (IRE) (13/2)
  2. Everyday Champagne (IRE) (12/1)

Summary of Recent Form and Comments:

  • Cowboy Cooper (9yo): This late-developing 9yo got off the mark at Perth in May 2024 and secured another win here (3m, good to soft) in February. He has been nudged up 4lb but remains of interest as he may not have reached his ceiling.
  • Everyday Champagne (9yo): Has made the frame on several occasions but has been below par since the summer of 2024. He finished third at Perth (2m4f, good) in September. He is likely to be thereabouts again.

Spotlight Verdict:
Still only a 7yo, TOROSAY has had some excuses since her runaway Hexham win in the spring of 2024. She can get back on track after a break and is marginally preferred to the late-developing Cowboy Cooper who has won two of his last three. Ian Duncan’s 6yos Adveram and Cave Hill complete the shortlist.

Race Statistics:

  • Specific age group, favourite, or trainer statistics for this race were not provided in the sources.

Assessment of the Top Two:

  • Cowboy Cooper (Strengths): In good winning form recently, having won two of his last three starts, including a course win. He is viewed as a late-developing horse who may still improve.
  • Cowboy Cooper (Weaknesses/Suitability): Up 4lb for his last win. He is the marginal second choice in the Spotlight verdict.
  • Everyday Champagne (Strengths): Has been consistent in placing and is likely to be thereabouts.
  • Everyday Champagne (Weaknesses/Suitability): Has been below par since the summer of 2024 and other horses appeal more for the win.

3. 1.58 United Council Of Racecourse Bookmakers Handicap Hurdle (3m 1/2f)

TimeWise Master Top Two Rated:

  1. Lavida Adiva (IRE) (11/4)
  2. Famous Bridge (IRE) (4/1)

Summary of Recent Form and Comments:

  • Lavida Adiva (6yo): Showed improvement when moving up to 3m, securing a Listed mares’ hurdle win at Kelso in March. She performed even better when finishing second in a C&D handicap (good to soft) the following month. She may still have untapped potential and is considered high on the list.
  • Famous Bridge (9yo): Is useful over fences, having been first past the post in the Grand National Trial at Haydock in February (later disqualified) and far from disgraced in the Ultima at Cheltenham. He runs here off a lower hurdles mark.

Spotlight Verdict:
Useful chasers Elvis Mail and Famous Bridge could be involved if ready to roll after their summer breaks, but both have an interesting stablemate in opposition. Ginger Mail’s stamina isn’t assured but he has a fine record fresh and will be dangerous if he stays. However, NAB WOOD (nap) shapes as if he’ll be suited by 3m+ and he can gain his revenge on Ginger Mail for a narrow defeat here last winter. Lavida Adiva, still only six and steadily progressive, is feared most.

Race Statistics:

  • Age Groups (W-Pl-R): 6yo 1-2-3, 7yo 1-2-6, 8yo 0-1-8, 9yo 0-0-2, 10yo 0-0-1, 11yo 1-0-1, 12yo 0-0-2.
  • Fate of Favourites: 263.
  • Trainer Records (W-Pl-R): N W Alexander 1-0-3, Nicky Richards 1-0-3.

Assessment of the Top Two:

  • Lavida Adiva (Strengths): Has proven form over this trip and distance, showing steady progression. She is the chief danger to the selection according to the Spotlight verdict.
  • Lavida Adiva (Weaknesses/Suitability): No specific weaknesses cited; suitability for the distance and ground is positive.
  • Famous Bridge (Strengths): Holds high-class form over fences and is potentially well handicapped reverting to hurdles.
  • Famous Bridge (Weaknesses/Suitability): Carries risks as this is his first hurdles start since April 2022 and he needs to be fully tuned up.

4. 2.29 Bet With Rails Bookmakers On Course Handicap Chase (2m 4 1/2f)

TimeWise Master Top Two Rated:

  1. Isle Of Sark (USA) (11/2)
  2. Visual Impact (IRE) (6/1)

Summary of Recent Form and Comments:

  • Isle Of Sark (7yo): Was in good form over hurdles last month, wearing the headgear combination he runs in today for his new stable.
  • Visual Impact (6yo): Was runner-up on his Irish point debut in November 2023. He subsequently made the frame on all five of his hurdling starts (2m1f-3m). He makes his chasing debut after a 191-day absence.

Spotlight Verdict:
Too Cool Forshrule was giving favourite backers a good run for their money before coming to grief at Kelso last week but the ground may have turned against him now. Preference is for VISUAL IMPACT, who had a consistent record over hurdles (albeit without winning) and is open to improvement now switched to fences. Tommy Combats might still have untapped potential over today’s trip and is second choice.

Race Statistics:

  • Specific age group, favourite, or trainer statistics for this race were not provided in the sources.

Assessment of the Top Two:

  • Isle Of Sark (Strengths): Comes into the race following recent good form over hurdles.
  • Isle Of Sark (Weaknesses/Suitability): His chasing record from Ireland included two unseats and a heavy defeat, meaning he comes with risk attached on his return to fences. He is seemingly better suited by a sound surface.
  • Visual Impact (Strengths): Holds a consistent record over hurdles and is viewed as open to improvement now switching to fences. He is the Spotlight selection for this race.
  • Visual Impact (Weaknesses/Suitability): Makes his debut over fences and returns after a significant break of 191 days. Needs to be fully tuned up.

5. 3.04 Southern Ayr Handicap Hurdle (2m)

TimeWise Master Top Two Rated:

  1. Maple (9/2)
  2. Thereisnodoubt (IRE) (4/1)

Summary of Recent Form and Comments:

  • Maple (4yo): Was runner-up in four of his first eight hurdle starts before successfully winning a handicap at Uttoxeter (2m, good) in May, when last seen. He is considered open to further improvement.
  • Thereisnodoubt (12yo): Returned to winning ways over C&D (soft) in March on his final run last season. He previously won on his reappearance two seasons ago. He goes back up just 3lb for his last win and is respected on his comeback.

Spotlight Verdict:
Talented Flat performer Hosaamm could be on a good mark over hurdles but he refused to race when last seen so comes with risk. Preference is for fellow 4yo MAPLE, who got off the mark at Uttoxeter in May and is in good hands to continue to progress. Dance Thief was runner-up in this race 12 months ago and is second choice ahead of the veteran Thereisnodoubt.

Race Statistics:

  • Age Groups (W-Pl-R): 3yo 0-0-1, 4yo 0-1-3, 5yo 1-1-10, 6yo 1-1-5, 7yo 0-1-1, 8yo 0-0-1, 10yo 1-0-1.
  • Fate of Favourites: 215.
  • Trainer Records (W-Pl-R): N W Alexander 2-1-3, R Mike Smith 0-1-2.

Assessment of the Top Two:

  • Maple (Strengths): A young horse (4yo) who is expected to continue progressing following his maiden handicap win. He is the Spotlight selection.
  • Maple (Weaknesses/Suitability): Carries a 4lb rise for his last victory.
  • Thereisnodoubt (Strengths): Proven C&D winner who handles soft ground. Has a decent reappearance record and carries a small penalty (+3lb).
  • Thereisnodoubt (Weaknesses/Suitability): Is a 12yo veteran and the Spotlight ranks him third in preference.

6. 3.40 Bet With On Course Bookmakers Novices’ Limited Handicap Chase (2m 1/2f)

TimeWise Master Top Two Rated:

  1. Surrey Belle (11/4)
  2. My Kiwi Girl (IRE) (3/1)

Summary of Recent Form and Comments:

  • Surrey Belle (5yo): She is on a winning run, having taken a hurdle race at Hexham and a Flat race here in September. She should make a good chaser.
  • My Kiwi Girl (6yo): Was an easy Irish point winner. She showed steady improvement over hurdles last term, culminating in a course maiden win (2m, soft). She has untapped potential.

Spotlight Verdict:
All five have potential and it’s hard to predict which one will come out on top. Ruby Island has proven fitness on her side, while Surrey Belle could be hard to peg back if getting into a good rhythm in front. However, slight preference is for MY KIWI GIRL who progressed nicely over hurdles last term, should be at least as effective over fences and receives weight all round. Stablemates From The Clouds and Walking On A Dream are completely unexposed and add flavour to an appetising contest.

Race Statistics:

  • Age Groups (W-Pl-R): 5yo 0-1-2, 6yo 0-1-4, 7yo 1-1-4, 8yo 1-0-3.
  • Fate of Favourites: 42.
  • Trainer Records (W-Pl-R): Nicky Richards 0-2-2.

Assessment of the Top Two:

  • Surrey Belle (Strengths): Arrives in top form (winning streak) and is expected to take to chasing well. She could be difficult to catch if she can establish a rhythm.
  • Surrey Belle (Weaknesses/Suitability): Makes her chasing debut.
  • My Kiwi Girl (Strengths): Showed great progression over hurdles and is expected to be equally effective over fences. She benefits from receiving weight all round. She is the narrow Spotlight preference due to her potential.
  • My Kiwi Girl (Weaknesses/Suitability): Makes her chasing debut.

7. 4.15 Shaws Bar Pollockshaws Handicap Hurdle (3m 1/2f)

TimeWise Master Top Two Rated:

  1. Be The Difference (IRE) (4/1)
  2. Guernesey (FR) (10/1)

Summary of Recent Form and Comments:

  • Be The Difference (9yo): Bettered a quiet seasonal debut by finishing a close third at Kelso (2m5f, good) last month. He is suited by this C&D and the expected slower ground. He remains on a workable mark.
  • Guernesey (9yo): Has not won since October 2022 and is steadily regressive. However, he is suited by 3m on soft ground and runs off a tempting mark on his seasonal debut. He has performed well when fresh previously.

Spotlight Verdict:
Guernesey (second choice) has gone well when fresh before and is worth a second look off his latest career-low mark, while Didntgotwenty ran well in defeat at Hexham last month and handicap debutant Buzz Iceclear is a potential improver over today’s much longer trip. However, the return to this C&D will suit BE THE DIFFERENCE, who posted a good effort at Kelso four weeks ago and remains on a workable mark.

Race Statistics:

  • Specific age group, favourite, or trainer statistics for this race were not provided in the sources.

Assessment of the Top Two:

  • Be The Difference (Strengths): C&D suitability confirmed, handles softer ground, and showed improved form recently at Kelso. He is the Spotlight selection.
  • Be The Difference (Weaknesses/Suitability): None explicitly noted; highly suitable profile.
  • Guernesey (Strengths): Runs off a potentially tempting mark on seasonal debut and has a good record when fresh. He is suited by 3m on soft ground.
  • Guernesey (Weaknesses/Suitability): Has not won since October 2022 and is steadily regressive.

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