Southwell; Analysis of the Timewise Top two rated+The Spotlight Verdict+Race Stats.

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This response works through all Southwell races chronologically, identifying the TimeWise Master Top Two rated horses and providing the requested analysis using the provided sources.


Southwell Race Analysis (03.11.25)

1. Race 4.15 Read Meg Nicholls’ Blog At betmgm.co.uk Apprentice Handicap (Class 5)

(4f 214y, AW, 3yo Rated 56-75)

TimeWise Master Top Two Rated:

  1. Toolatetonegotiate (15/8)
  2. Ziggy’s Triton (5/2)

Recent Form and Comments:

  • Toolatetonegotiate (OR 65): Was off the mark at the 17th attempt when winning a 0-60 at Lingfield (5f, AW) in September. Since then, she delivered a respectable effort at Bath and has run with credit in her single appearance over the course and distance (C&D).
  • Ziggy’s Triton (OR 75): Won twice on turf during the summer. He finished second over C&D in September, though he bumped into a well-treated rival in that race (first-time cheekpieces were used). He has performed less well in his two subsequent runs and requires a full revival.

Spotlight Verdict:

A few horses hold a chance in this open contest, but UNTIL DAWN is the preferred selection. Her reappearance run at Wolverhampton was extremely poor due to being unsteerable around the left-hand bend, but based on her performance earlier in the year (including two defeats of a considerably higher-rated rival), her current mark looks viable, especially as she will have a rail to help prevent drifting right today. Dc Cogent is identified as the main danger, being relatively unexposed on AW, while Lovat Scout should benefit from the small field, reducing the risk of traffic issues.

Race Statistics:

  • Age Groups: The race is confined to 3yo horses.
  • Fate of Favourites: Specific statistics are not provided for this specific race, class, and age group within the overall figures.
  • Trainer Records (Last 14 days): D O’Meara is running at 63%. D Hitchins is running at 0%.

Assessment of the Top Two:

  • Toolatetonegotiate (Strengths/Suitability): Comes into the race following a win and a respectable subsequent run. Has handled the C&D previously.
  • Toolatetonegotiate (Weaknesses): Took 17 attempts to register a first victory.
  • Ziggy’s Triton (Strengths/Suitability): Demonstrated C&D form with a second place in September. Trainer D O’Meara is performing well (63% success rate in the last 14 days).
  • Ziggy’s Triton (Weaknesses): Has struggled in his last two outings and needs to return to his earlier form.

2. Race 4.45 Bet £10 Get £40 With BetMGM Nursery Handicap (Class 5)

(7f 14y, AW, 2yo Rated 0-70)

TimeWise Master Top Two Rated:

  1. Empress Olivia (8/1)
  2. Seance (7/2)

Recent Form and Comments:

  • Empress Olivia (OR 68): Won a Ripon maiden (6f, good) on her third outing. Her subsequent performances in two nurseries were adequate, but she must find extra for this first attempt at 7f and her AW debut.
  • Seance (OR 61): Does not appear obviously well treated off her initial handicap mark based on her three 6f runs this autumn (including one at this track). However, she is closely related to winners, possesses potential in her pedigree, and is expected to improve for her reputable yard.

Spotlight Verdict:

The selection is the well-supported THANOS, who overcame an impossible starting position to finish second on his nursery debut at Newcastle and is expected to make amends here. My Dad Tom is considered the chief danger, as the step back up to 7f is anticipated to be a benefit, placing him ahead of the well-bred newcomer to nurseries, Seance.

Race Statistics:

  • Age Groups: The race is restricted to 2yo horses.
  • Fate of Favourites: Specific statistics are not provided for this race.
  • Trainer Records (Last 14 days): M Walford is running at 50%. A Balding is running at 50%.

Assessment of the Top Two:

  • Empress Olivia (Strengths/Suitability): Has a maiden win to her name. Trainer M Walford is operating at a 50% runners-to-form rate in the last 14 days.
  • Empress Olivia (Weaknesses): Requires a significant step up on her first AW start and her first run over 7f.
  • Seance (Strengths/Suitability): High pedigree potential and trained by a good yard, suggesting she is open to marked improvement on her handicap debut.
  • Seance (Weaknesses): Her initial mark might be demanding based on her current 6f form.

3. Race 5.15 Best Odds Guaranteed At BetMGM “Confined” EBF Restricted Maiden Fillies’ Stakes (Div I) (Class 5)

(6f 16y, AW, 2yo fillies)

TimeWise Master Top Two Rated:

  1. Hewi (5/1)
  2. Miss Starlet (4/1)

Recent Form and Comments:

  • Hewi (RPR 61): Showed promise on her debut at Thirsk in September, but subsequently failed to build on that performance at Newcastle, where she raced freely. She wears a hood for the first time today and should improve eventually.
  • Miss Starlet (RPR 70): Showed similar form in maiden events over 6f (Yarmouth) and 7f (Newmarket) in midsummer. She makes her AW debut and is one to consider in this modest event.

Spotlight Verdict:

Given the unchallenging standard set by the experienced runners, any strong market support for newcomers like Zoustellar and Rubistar should be noted as significant. Nevertheless, the slight preference is for LOLABELLA, who displayed encouraging signs on her debut at Leicester and is expected to take a good step forward.

Race Statistics:

  • Age Groups: The race is restricted to 2yo fillies.
  • Fate of Favourites: Specific statistics are not provided for this race.
  • Trainer Records (Last 14 days): J Camacho is running at 21%. G Margarson is running at 100%.

Assessment of the Top Two:

  • Hewi (Strengths/Suitability): Has shown initial promise; the application of a first-time hood might address her tendency to race freely and trigger improvement.
  • Hewi (Weaknesses): Failed to progress on her second outing.
  • Miss Starlet (Strengths/Suitability): Brings the highest Racing Post Rating (RPR 70) among the Top Two, suggesting reasonable form already. Trainer G Margarson has a 100% runners-to-form rate in the last 14 days.
  • Miss Starlet (Weaknesses): Making an AW debut.

4. Race 5.45 Best Odds Guaranteed At BetMGM “Confined” EBF Restricted Maiden Fillies’ Stakes (Div II) (Class 5)

(6f 16y, AW, 2yo fillies)

TimeWise Master Top Two Rated:

  1. Mooj (3/1)
  2. Pennine Way (10/1)

Recent Form and Comments:

  • Mooj (RPR 75): Finished third of eight on her debut at Leicester (6f, good) three weeks ago, defying her 22-1 odds and performing best among the newcomers. She is open to improvement and should be in contention.
  • Pennine Way (RPR 72): Finished fifth of ten, beaten just over 5l, on her recent debut over C&D. She comes from a successful family associated with her connections and there is optimism for her improvement.

Spotlight Verdict:

BAMI, who was a promising fourth on debut last month, is selected to win ahead of Pennine Way, who is also open to progression on her second start. The debutante Soul Love has an attractive pedigree and is expected to play a leading role.

Race Statistics:

  • Age Groups: The race is restricted to 2yo fillies.
  • Fate of Favourites: Specific statistics are not provided for this race.
  • Trainer Records (Last 14 days): J Jones is running at 58%. J Channon is running at 43%.

Assessment of the Top Two:

  • Mooj (Strengths/Suitability): Produced a strong effort on debut (RPR 75) and is highly likely to improve.
  • Mooj (Weaknesses): None explicitly stated, other than her long odds on debut.
  • Pennine Way (Strengths/Suitability): Comes from a family with proven success for her connections; expected to benefit significantly from her first run.
  • Pennine Way (Weaknesses): Finished fifth on debut.

5. Race 6.15 Midnite A Next Generation Betting App Novice Stakes (Class 5)

(6f 16y, AW, 3yo+)

TimeWise Master Top Two Rated:

  1. Hostility (11/8)
  2. Your Love (5/4)

Recent Form and Comments:

  • Hostility (OR 76): Has proved costly to support, being beaten at short odds in three runs for his current connections, including a second place in a 6f maiden last week. He is a strong candidate for this uncompetitive novice, but he has reached a plateau in his form. He wears cheekpieces today.
  • Your Love (OR 70): Showed promise on AW in the spring and has posted two sound runs on turf since. Her most recent effort was a second place in a 5f handicap. She has obvious form claims and would be marginally better treated than Hostility in a handicap.

Spotlight Verdict:

The contest is primarily between Hostility and YOUR LOVE. Narrow preference is given to Richard Spencer’s filly (Your Love), as she achieved her best performance recently, whereas Hostility’s progress appears to have slowed.

Race Statistics:

  • Age Groups: The race is open to 3yo+ horses.
  • Fate of Favourites: Specific statistics are not provided for this race.
  • Trainer Records (Last 14 days): D O’Meara is running at 63%. Richard Spencer is running at 67%.

Assessment of the Top Two:

  • Hostility (Strengths/Suitability): Sets a strong standard on form in this novice event. Trainer D O’Meara is in excellent form (63%).
  • Hostility (Weaknesses): Has been frustratingly consistent in defeat, failing to win when highly fancied, and his progress seems to have levelled off.
  • Your Love (Strengths/Suitability): In good form (ran her best race most recently); holds obvious form claims; slight advantage over Hostility on current handicap ratings. Trainer Richard Spencer is in good form (67%).
  • Your Love (Weaknesses): None explicitly stated, but preferred narrowly.

6. Race 6.45 Bet £10 Get £40 With BetMGM Fillies’ Handicap (Class 4)

(6f 16y, AW, 3yo+ fillies & mares Rated 61-80)

TimeWise Master Top Two Rated:

  1. Mae Amor (9/4)
  2. Quandary (10/1)

Recent Form and Comments:

  • Mae Amor (OR 79): Registered career-best form two weeks ago by winning a 6f handicap at Wolverhampton, closing strongly off a fast pace. Despite a 4lb rise and a recent sale, she is expected to deliver another strong performance.
  • Quandary (OR 77): Generally reliable on AW. She is effective over 6f and has a good record when fresh; her two poorer efforts in April can likely be disregarded. She is not ruled out on her return to action.

Spotlight Verdict:

While Mae Amor is expected to run boldly, and Star Zia is the second preference, ORMOLULU is currently running in the weakest race she has encountered for some time and is due a reversal of luck, leading to her selection.

Race Statistics:

  • Age Groups: 3yo 0-1-3, 4yo+ 1-1-5.
  • Fate of Favourites: 1 win from 5 runners (1).
  • Trainer Records (Last 14 days): R Menzies is running at 40%. E Bethell is running at 64%.

Assessment of the Top Two:

  • Mae Amor (Strengths/Suitability): Recent winner in career-best style; proven ability to handle a strong pace; modest penalty.
  • Mae Amor (Weaknesses): Recent change of yard following sale. Trainer R Menzies 40%.
  • Quandary (Strengths/Suitability): Strong record on AW; known to run well fresh and is effective at the trip. Trainer E Bethell 64%.
  • Quandary (Weaknesses): Returns from a break, though noted as potentially benefiting from it.

7. Race 7.15 Midnite Aint Your Grandads Bookie Handicap (Class 5)

(1m 4f 14y, AW, 3yo+ Rated 56-75)

TimeWise Master Top Two Rated:

  1. An Bradan Feasa (5/1)
  2. Everyoneknowsadave (13/2)

Recent Form and Comments:

  • An Bradan Feasa (OR 71): Has been performing well over hurdles recently, achieving two wins. He remains on a career-high Flat mark, but the 1m4f trip on Tapeta is expected to suit him well, and his current form commands respect.
  • Everyoneknowsadave (OR 74): A three-time AW winner (latest in July). Although he holds no secrets from the handicapper, he recently put in a good effort when finishing second over C&D in September and is expected to be competitive again.

Spotlight Verdict:

Eupator and Relocal (in that order) are favoured among the lightly raced horses following good recent performances. However, the selection is the handicap debutante SHUMUS, who has the most potential due to her strong pedigree and clear promise shown in her three qualifying runs. An Bradan Feasa is highlighted as likely to be the best performing older horse.

Race Statistics:

  • Age Groups: 3yo 0-1-3, 4yo+ 1-0-4.
  • Fate of Favourites: Specific statistics are not provided for this race.
  • Trainer Records (Last 14 days): J Jones is running at 58%. J Macey is running at 67%. D Simcock has an overall record of 1 win from 1 runner (1-0-1) in comparable historical races.

Assessment of the Top Two:

  • An Bradan Feasa (Strengths/Suitability): Excellent current form (over hurdles); trip/surface combination is considered highly suitable.
  • An Bradan Feasa (Weaknesses): Running off a career-high Flat handicap mark.
  • Everyoneknowsadave (Strengths/Suitability): Proven C&D form (recently placed); multiple AW winner; trainer J Macey is operating at 67% runners-to-form.
  • Everyoneknowsadave (Weaknesses): Considered fully exposed to the handicapper.

8. Race 7.45 Midnite: Built For 2025 Not 2005 Handicap (Class 6)

(2m 102y, AW, 3yo+ Rated 46-55)

TimeWise Master Top Two Rated:

  1. Billy Bathgate (9/4)
  2. T Or Coffey (2/1)

Recent Form and Comments:

  • Billy Bathgate (OR 53): This consistent 9yo achieved his third victory of the year recently at Newcastle (2m, Tapeta). He is effective at Southwell and is expected to be a strong contender.
  • T Or Coffey (OR 52): Won a maiden hurdle in July. He recently performed exceptionally well back on the Flat at Wolverhampton (2m, Tapeta), finishing a very close second and clear of the third. Though 0-15 on the Flat, he is expected to break his maiden in this sphere soon.

Spotlight Verdict:

The clear choice is T OR COFFEY (nap), who showed significant promise returning to the Flat recently and should get off the mark in this code. The consistent 9yo Billy Bathgate, coming off a win at Newcastle, is the primary danger, with three-time course winner Young Endless also capable of involvement.

Race Statistics:

  • Age Groups: 3yo 0-0-2, 4yo+ 1-2-10.
  • Fate of Favourites: Specific statistics are not provided for this race.
  • Trainer Records (Last 14 days): Ewan Whillans is running at 33%. J Candlish is running at 50%.

Assessment of the Top Two:

  • Billy Bathgate (Strengths/Suitability): Highly consistent form this year (three wins); effective at this track and distance.
  • Billy Bathgate (Weaknesses): Slightly less preferred by the analyst than the selection.
  • T Or Coffey (Strengths/Suitability): Demonstrated winning form over hurdles and narrowly missed a Flat win last time, beating the third decisively; likely to succeed soon despite his maiden status.
  • T Or Coffey (Weaknesses): Still a Flat maiden (0-15).

9. Race 8.15 Midnite Are Upping The Betting Game Handicap (Class 6)

(6f 16y, AW, 3yo+ Rated 46-65)

TimeWise Master Top Two Rated:

  1. Raft Up (11/4)
  2. Thanks Dad (6/1)

Recent Form and Comments:

  • Raft Up (OR 65): Recorded three wins in the first half of the year, mostly over 6f on Tapeta. He has shown excellent recent form with two very close finishes at Newcastle last month. Although unplaced in all four previous visits here, he is entitled to respect due to his recent performances.
  • Thanks Dad (OR 62): Has won twice here, including over C&D in September. His strike-rate is modest, but he is unexposed over sprint trips and is capable of being competitive if he can replicate his latest winning run.

Spotlight Verdict:

The 3yo MINSHAAR is selected, having been unlucky in her handicap debut at Haydock in September and struggling only when encountering slow ground subsequently. Rambuso Creek is feared next, as the step back up to 6f is anticipated to be beneficial. Vince Lombardi is rated third choice, ahead of Raft Up and Thanks Dad.

Race Statistics:

  • Age Groups: 3yo 1-0-7, 4yo+ 2-6-27.
  • Fate of Favourites: 6, 4, 6 (based on last three races provided in the statistics section).
  • Trainer Records (Last 14 days): H Bethell is running at 100%. S Dixon is running at 45%. S Dixon has an overall record of 0 wins, 1 place from 3 runners (0-1-3) in comparable historical races.

Assessment of the Top Two:

  • Raft Up (Strengths/Suitability): Currently in outstanding form with multiple close seconds; Trainer H Bethell is running at 100% runners-to-form.
  • Raft Up (Weaknesses): Has never placed in four previous runs at Southwell.
  • Thanks Dad (Strengths/Suitability): Proven C&D winner; unexposed over sprint distances; is capable when in form.
  • Thanks Dad (Weaknesses): Modest career strike-rate, suggesting inconsistency.

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