Dundalk; Analysis of the TimeWise top two ranked+The SpotlightsVerdicts+The Race Stats

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This analysis works through all available Dundalk races in chronological order, identifying the TimeWise Master Top Two rated horses based on the provided ratings report.


1.45 Christmas Party Nights At Dundalk Stadium Claiming Race (6f)

TimeWise Master Top Two Rated:

  1. Lismacbryan Hill (IRE)
  2. Velvet Skies (IRE)
HorseRecent Form & Comments
Lismacbryan Hill (IRE) (OR 52)Has held form well in AW handicaps since winning a Laytown claimer in September. He has lots on at the weights here.
Velvet Skies (IRE) (OR 68)Gained her third career win over this 6f trip at Navan last month. This victory followed a good run here over 7f five days prior. She is noted as a definite contender.

Spotlight Verdict:
Denis Hogan goes mob-handed here with five runners, possibly the most interesting being Sporting Hero, winner of this last year, fit from a couple of recent turf runs and aided here by his rider’s valuable 10lb claim. Likely dangers include stablemate Dontspoilasale and recent Navan winner Velvet Skies. Never Not Lucky is one who could go well at a price.

Race Statistics:

  • Age Groups: 3yo 0-4-34, 4yo+ 9-14-71.
  • Fate of Favourites: 541442003.
  • Trainer Records (w-pl-r): Denis Gerard Hogan 2-3-10.

Assessment of the Top Two:

  • Lismacbryan Hill (IRE):
    • Strengths: Holding form well since winning a claimer.
    • Weaknesses: Listed as having “lots on at the weights”.
    • Suitability: Has AW form.
  • Velvet Skies (IRE):
    • Strengths: Recent win over 6f and coming off a good run over 7f. Is considered a definite contender.
    • Weaknesses: None explicitly mentioned; strong recent form.
    • Suitability: Proven over this trip (6f).

2.15 Celebrate Your Special Occasion At Dundalk Stadium Median Auction Maiden (6f)

TimeWise Master Top Two Rated:

  1. White Smoke (IRE)
  2. Velvet Reign (IRE)
HorseRecent Form & Comments
White Smoke (IRE) (OR 84)Holds the best form claims here, having twice been runner-up in Curragh maidens at this 6f trip, racing prominently. She disappointed as favourite at Navan last time, reportedly showing signs of being in season. She sets a clear standard switched to AW.
Velvet Reign (IRE) (No OR listed)Showed mild debut promise two months ago at Navan, where she was keen but rallied late for third over this trip. She is one to consider.

Spotlight Verdict:
Twice runner-up in Curragh maidens, WHITE SMOKE (nap) sets a clear standard here and should be hard to beat off a low weight. Allsortz and Velvet Reign look likely dangers, while Coincidental Glory would have a place shout if back to his best. Leveraging is a potential improver.

Race Statistics:

  • Age Groups: Only 2yo runners.
  • Trainer Records/Fate of Favourites: Not provided in the source material snippets for this race.

Assessment of the Top Two:

  • White Smoke (IRE):
    • Strengths: Sets a clear standard based on solid placed form in Curragh maidens. Expected to be hard to beat.
    • Weaknesses: Disappointing run last time (though an excuse was offered).
    • Suitability: Switches to AW for the first time.
  • Velvet Reign (IRE):
    • Strengths: Showed ability on debut, rallying well.
    • Weaknesses: Was keen on debut.
    • Suitability: AW debut.

2.45 Student Race Day At Dundalk Stadium Maiden (7f)

TimeWise Master Top Two Rated:

  1. Beautiful Affair (IRE)
  2. Tokyo Treasure (IRE)
HorseRecent Form & Comments
Beautiful Affair (IRE) (OR 69)Has placed over this C&D early in the year and twice on turf recently during a busy campaign. Has claims based on her best form, though recently ran below par in a C&D claimer. Blinkers replace cheekpieces, and the rider’s 7lb claim is positive.
Tokyo Treasure (IRE) (No OR listed)The pick of his three runs was a third place in a 7f Down Royal maiden. The 1m trip at Navan last time may have found him out. A return to 7f is expected to suit, and he should go well from a good draw.

Spotlight Verdict:
A maiden which is unlikely to take too much winning. TOKYO TREASURE found the stiff Navan mile too much last time but his previous Down Royal third gives him strong claims. Local Lad rates a danger back on a sound surface, while place claims are held by the likes of Beautiful Affair, La Flute and Ready To Mingle.

Race Statistics:

  • Age Groups: 3yo 3-6-29, 4yo+ 0-0-3.
  • Fate of Favourites: 211.
  • Trainer Records (w-pl-r): Joseph Patrick O’Brien 0-2-2.

Assessment of the Top Two:

  • Beautiful Affair (IRE):
    • Strengths: Proven course and distance experience and has placed well previously. Benefits from a substantial 7lb claim.
    • Weaknesses: Ran below best recently.
    • Suitability: Return to C&D and application of new headgear (blinkers).
  • Tokyo Treasure (IRE):
    • Strengths: Strong form over 7f (Down Royal third). Expected to be suited by the return to this trip.
    • Weaknesses: Seems challenged by longer distances (1m).
    • Suitability: Back at 7f.

3.15 Book Online At DundalkStadium.com Nursery Handicap (7f)

TimeWise Master Top Two Rated:

  1. Sup Of Red (IRE)
  2. Stone Bear (IRE)
HorseRecent Form & Comments
Sup Of Red (IRE) (OR 64)Has plenty of experience and put in solid runs in all three turf handicaps over shorter trips. She shapes as though this 7f trip will suit.
Stone Bear (IRE) (OR 57)Showed mild promise in the second of his three runs over 6f at Naas. He is viewed as a potential improver entering handicaps from an in-form yard.

Spotlight Verdict:
Not too many appeal but perhaps BADGER’S COVE can give an immediate return for connections, having been claimed at Fairyhouse after an unlucky-in-running third. One Cool Bear ran well in a nursery here recently over 6f and will be a player if seeing this longer trip out. The lowly-weighted Enthusiastically has slipped to a nice mark and has headgear fitted here so could go well.

Race Statistics:

  • Age Groups: Only 2yo runners.
  • Trainer Records/Fate of Favourites: Not provided in the source material snippets for this race.

Assessment of the Top Two:

  • Sup Of Red (IRE):
    • Strengths: Solid form demonstrated in recent handicaps. Trip likely suits.
    • Weaknesses: Draw has not been kind.
    • Suitability: Stepping up to 7f for the first time.
  • Stone Bear (IRE):
    • Strengths: Potential for improvement entering the handicap ranks, representing a yard that is “flying”.
    • Weaknesses: Modest form shown over the shorter 6f distance.
    • Suitability: Debut in handicaps/AW.

3.50 Bet On The Best Night Out At Dundalk Stadium Handicap (7f)

TimeWise Master Top Two Rated:

  1. Nikki Swango (IRE)
  2. Wellwhatshappenin (IRE)
HorseRecent Form & Comments
Nikki Swango (IRE) (OR 55)Won a maiden here (6f) in September 2023. Shaped well recently when second over 6f before winning readily over C&D last week (beating Eric Lock). Likely to be in the mix again despite an 11lb rise.
Wellwhatshappenin (IRE) (OR 59)Achieved his first win for his new team when beating Eric Lock over C&D 19 days ago. That form appears solid, as Eric Lock subsequently finished second to Nikki Swango.

Spotlight Verdict:
Preference is for WELLWHATSHAPPENIN, who was making his stable debut when beating Eric Lock here last month. The runner-up should again be in the mix along with Nikki Swango who has taken a sharp rise in the rating for beating Noel Meade’s runner last Wednesday. Another to consider is Irish Rumour.

Race Statistics:

  • Age Groups/Trainer Records/Fate of Favourites: Not provided in the source material snippets for this race.

Assessment of the Top Two:

  • Nikki Swango (IRE):
    • Strengths: In great form, winning readily over C&D last time. Proven AW ability.
    • Weaknesses: Faces a sharp 11lb rise in the weights.
    • Suitability: Proven C&D winner.
  • Wellwhatshappenin (IRE):
    • Strengths: Confirmed C&D winner on stable debut, with the form proving solid.
    • Weaknesses: Previous record (0-6) for his former trainer.
    • Suitability: Proven C&D winner.

4.20 Irishinjuredjockeys.com Handicap (1m)

TimeWise Master Top Two Rated:

  1. Vlhova
  2. Instant Appeal
HorseRecent Form & Comments
Vlhova (OR 76)Holding her form well. Posted a career-best effort recently (in first-time cheekpieces) when only caught late, finishing clear second over 7f at Leopardstown. Ran well on this surface as a 2yo. Rates a major player from a good draw.
Instant Appeal (OR 75)Quite lightly raced 4yo who had decent runs this summer after a long absence. Was favourite on his yard debut over C&D last month, where he tired late into third having led. Remains of interest.

Spotlight Verdict:
Wide open, hardly any safely ruled out. VHLOVA makes plenty of appeal back on the AW after a fine Leopardstown second to a well-handicapped rival, her chance further aided by a good draw and Jack Cleary’s claim. Biggest dangers could come from the likes of Finsceal Annie, Everylittlestep, Darkderserthighway and Punk Poet.

Race Statistics:

  • Age Groups/Trainer Records/Fate of Favourites: Not provided in the source material snippets for this race.

Assessment of the Top Two:

  • Vlhova:
    • Strengths: Back on AW (where she performed well as a 2yo) and coming off a career-best performance. Has a good draw and benefits from jockey’s claim.
    • Weaknesses: None stated, highly regarded here.
    • Suitability: Ideal conditions (AW, good draw).
  • Instant Appeal:
    • Strengths: Lightly raced and remains of interest.
    • Weaknesses: Tended to tire late when tried over C&D last month.
    • Suitability: Return to C&D.

4.50 Now Racing Every Wednesday At Dundalk Handicap (Div I) (1m 2f 150y)

TimeWise Master Top Two Rated:

  1. Barretstown (IRE)
  2. Blackjack Hills (IRE)
HorseRecent Form & Comments
Barretstown (IRE) (OR 56)Has secured three of his four career wins over C&D. Recently came good again at Dundalk (eight days after a low-key return). His recent 6lb rise is nearly negated by Jack Cleary’s valuable 5lb claim.
Blackjack Hills (IRE) (OR 56)Showed huge improvement when winning his last start at Gowran in first-time blinkers. Faces a 6lb rise and makes his debut on this surface. Since his Gowran win was achieved on heavy ground, there are questions about his ability to reproduce that form on AW.

Spotlight Verdict:
Of the two last-time-out winners in the field, BARRETSTOWN is the more appealing based on his C&D record and Jack Cleary’s 5lb claim. Heavy-ground Gowran winner Blackjack Hills is not certain to be as well suited by this surface. Eighty Eight and Waystar could feature.

Race Statistics:

  • Age Groups: 3yo 1-2-14, 4yo+ 4-8-53.
  • Fate of Favourites: 15242.
  • Trainer Records (w-pl-r): Conor O’Dwyer 1-0-2, John C McConnell 1-2-6, Adrian McGuinness 0-1-2.

Assessment of the Top Two:

  • Barretstown (IRE):
    • Strengths: Excellent C&D record. Benefits greatly from the 5lb claim.
    • Weaknesses: Build-up included a low-key run in September.
    • Suitability: C&D specialist.
  • Blackjack Hills (IRE):
    • Strengths: Demonstrates massive improvement following the application of blinkers.
    • Weaknesses: Has a 6lb rise and his recent best form was achieved on heavy ground, making his suitability for AW questionable.
    • Suitability: AW debut.

5.20 Now Racing Every Wednesday At Dundalk Handicap (Div II) (1m 2f 150y)

TimeWise Master Top Two Rated:

  1. Porsche Lad (IRE)
  2. Rising Sky (IRE)
HorseRecent Form & Comments
Porsche Lad (IRE) (OR 59)Likes this track, underlined by his run last time where he was demoted for interference after finishing second. He has strong recent form, having beaten Pillar Of Hope here in March and achieving another second place a week later.
Rising Sky (IRE) (OR 58)Consistent at around 1m, though generally limited. This is his first attempt at this extended trip. Needs to find extra based on his two recent fourth placings at this venue.

Spotlight Verdict:
A breakthrough win is on the cards for KODI BROWN with Sam Coen’s 7lb claim a help in his bid to go one better than at Navan. Porsche Lad likes this surface and can be rated a strong danger. Limestone Red ran with some promise last time. Highland Harvey is a potential dark horse.

Race Statistics:

  • Age Groups/Trainer Records/Fate of Favourites: Not provided in the source material snippets for this race.

Assessment of the Top Two:

  • Porsche Lad (IRE):
    • Strengths: Proven liking for the Dundalk track and has strong, recent competitive form. Rated a strong danger.
    • Weaknesses: Was demoted for interference on his most recent run.
    • Suitability: Ideal on this surface.
  • Rising Sky (IRE):
    • Strengths: Consistent performer at shorter trips.
    • Weaknesses: Lacks experience and requires further improvement over this distance, being his first attempt.
    • Suitability: Questionable for this extended trip.

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