A detailed examination of each of the 24 contenders is essential to formulating a comprehensive wagering strategy. The following analysis assesses the strengths and weaknesses of every runner in the 2025 Lexus Melbourne Cup field.

1. Al Riffa

• Trainer: Joseph O’Brien. Jockey: Mark Zahra. Weight: 59kg. Barrier: 19.
• The Case For: He is the undisputed class runner of the field, a three-time Group 1 winner with impeccable recent form. His last two starts resulted in dominant victories in the Curragh Cup and the Irish St Leger, both over 2816m, showcasing his elite staying prowess. He is prepared by Joseph O’Brien, who has already trained two Melbourne Cup winners (Rekindling, 2017; Twilight Payment, 2020), and is partnered by Mark Zahra, who has won the last two Cups and is in peak form. He has also demonstrated a capacity to handle soft ground, a significant asset given the weather forecast.   
• The Case Against: The weight of 59kg is a monumental burden. History is profoundly against him, as only the legendary mare Makybe Diva has won the race with 58kg or more in the 21st century. The wide barrier draw of 19 presents a significant tactical challenge, forcing Zahra to either use up energy early to find a position or risk being caught wide for the entire race. He is also unproven at the full 3200m distance.   
• Verdict: The classiest horse in the race, but he faces an enormous task against the weight of history and a difficult draw. A win would require a champion’s performance, making him a risky proposition at short odds.

2. Buckaroo

• Trainer: Chris Waller. Jockey: Craig Williams. Weight: 57kg. Barrier: 12.
• The Case For: He brings elite weight-for-age form into the race, having finished a narrow second in the Cox Plate (2040m) at his last start. Cox Plate form has historically been a strong reference for the Melbourne Cup. He has drawn well in barrier 12, and the booking of veteran Cup-winning jockey Craig Williams is a major positive. He returns for his second attempt at the race in arguably better form than last year.   
• The Case Against: The primary and most significant query is his stamina over the 3200m journey. His best form is over 2000m, and while he ran in the Cup last year, he failed to see out the trip strongly. He carries a significant weight of 57kg.   
• Verdict: A high-class horse with the right connections, but a major stamina doubt at the elite two-mile level. An each-way threat if he can conserve energy and see out the trip.

3. Arapaho

• Trainer: Bjorn Baker. Jockey: Rachel King. Weight: 56.5kg. Barrier: 15.
• The Case For: He is a proven two-miler, having won the Sydney Cup over 3200m in the autumn. He has prior experience in this race, having finished midfield in 2022, and will relish a genuinely run contest. His last run in the Bendigo Cup was better than it appeared on paper after an unsuitably wide run.   
• The Case Against: His recent form has been well below his best, with disappointing efforts in The Metropolitan and Bendigo Cup. He carries half a kilogram more than his previous Cup attempt in what appears to be a stronger race. The barrier of 15 is awkward.   
• Verdict: A proven stayer but appears to be out of form and poorly weighted. A top-ten finish would be a good result.

4. Vauban

• Trainer: Gai Waterhouse & Adrian Bott. Jockey: Blake Shinn. Weight: 56.5kg. Barrier: 2.
• The Case For: He has drawn perfectly in barrier 2, which should allow him to get an economical run. He is now with the successful Waterhouse & Bott stable and has had a full year of acclimatisation to Australian conditions. His run two starts back in The Metropolitan was unlucky.   
• The Case Against: This is his third attempt at the Melbourne Cup, having failed badly in his previous two attempts, including as a short-priced favourite in 2023. His last-start performance in the Caulfield Cup was poor, where he finished 13th and appeared not to handle the track. There remains a significant query on his ability to run a strong 3200m at this level.   
• Verdict: Third time lucky seems unlikely. Despite the good draw, his past failures in this race and poor recent form make him difficult to recommend.

5. Chevalier Rose

• Trainer: Hisashi Shimizu. Jockey: Damian Lane. Weight: 55.5kg. Barrier: 5.
• The Case For: He is a Japanese raider with proven form over extreme distances, including a Group 2 win over 3600m. He has drawn the most successful barrier in Melbourne Cup history (barrier 5) and has the services of top jockey Damian Lane, who has an excellent record on Japanese horses.   
• The Case Against: His form in 2025 has been well below his best, having not placed in four runs this year. He has a strong preference for dry tracks, and the predicted rain in Melbourne is a major negative for his chances.   
• Verdict: Needs to recapture his best form and requires a dry track to be a genuine contender. The weather forecast makes his task extremely difficult.

6. Presage Nocturne

• Trainer: Alessandro Botti. Jockey: Stephane Pasquier. Weight: 55.5kg. Barrier: 9.
• The Case For: His run in the Caulfield Cup was an outstanding trial for this race. He ran on strongly for fourth in his first Australian start and is expected to be significantly improved by the run and the step up to 3200m. He is a proven stayer with strong European form, and crucially, is a wet track specialist. The predicted rain is a massive advantage for him. He has drawn ideally in barrier 9.   
• The Case Against: While he ran well, he was still beaten in the Caulfield Cup. He is reliant on wet ground to produce his absolute peak performance; on a drier surface, others may possess a superior turn of foot.
• Verdict: A leading contender. The combination of his excellent lead-up run, proven staying ability, and preference for wet ground makes him a major threat.

7. Middle Earth

• Trainer: Ciaron Maher. Jockey: Ethan Brown. Weight: 54.5kg. Barrier: 13.
• The Case For: His last start third in the Moonee Valley Gold Cup showed he is finding form at the right time. He is trained by Ciaron Maher, a master at preparing stayers for grand finals, and is bred to appreciate the 3200m distance.   
• The Case Against: His form prior to his last run was only fair, including an 11th-place finish in the Caulfield Cup. He needs to produce a significant new career peak to be winning this race.   
• Verdict: An outside chance who could run into the placings at long odds if he relishes the two-mile trip.

8. Meydaan

• Trainer: Simon & Ed Crisford. Jockey: James McDonald. Weight: 54kg. Barrier: 22.
• The Case For: He is a lightly raced European stayer with potential for improvement. He has secured the services of champion jockey James McDonald, a significant booking. His run in the Caulfield Cup was better than it appears, as he was caught wide without cover and still finished off the race reasonably well.   
• The Case Against: The barrier draw of 22 is extremely difficult to overcome. He will need a lot of luck to find a good position without using too much energy early in the race.
• Verdict: A horse with talent, but the horror barrier draw makes his task exceptionally difficult. A place hope with luck.

9. Absurde

• Trainer: Willie Mullins. Jockey: Kerrin McEvoy. Weight: 53.5kg. Barrier: 4.
• The Case For: He has proven form in this race, having finished a creditable fifth last year. He is trained by the legendary Willie Mullins and will be ridden by three-time Melbourne Cup winner Kerrin McEvoy. He has drawn perfectly in barrier 4, which will allow him to save ground throughout the race. His recent form in Europe is solid, and he ran on well in the Caulfield Cup.   
• The Case Against: While consistent, he may lack the sheer class of some of the top contenders. He would likely prefer a track with more give in it than he might get, even with the forecast rain.   
• Verdict: A reliable stayer with the perfect draw and connections. He is a strong chance to finish in the top four and represents good each-way value.

10. Flatten The Curve

• Trainer: Henk Grewe. Jockey: Thore Hammer Hansen. Weight: 53.5kg. Barrier: 17.
• The Case For: He is a German stayer with an impressive winning record, having won six of his last seven starts in staying races in Germany and the United States. He brings a different and intriguing form line to the race.   
• The Case Against: The quality of the races he has been winning is a major question mark against the Group 1 level of a Melbourne Cup. The barrier of 17 is also awkward.   
• Verdict: An unknown quantity. His winning form is respected, but he needs to prove he can measure up to this elite level.

11. Land Legend

• Trainer: Chris Waller. Jockey: Joao Moreira. Weight: 53.5kg. Barrier: 16.
• The Case For: He is a previous winner of The Metropolitan Handicap, a key staying race in Sydney. He is trained by Chris Waller and will be ridden by world-class jockey Joao Moreira.   
• The Case Against: His recent form is terrible, having finished last in his past two starts. He acted as a pacemaker in last year’s Cup and appears to be making up the numbers again.   
• Verdict: Cannot be recommended based on his current form.

12. Smokin’ Romans

• Trainer: Ciaron Maher. Jockey: Ben Melham. Weight: 53.5kg. Barrier: 11.
• The Case For: He is a tough and seasoned Australian stayer who has drawn the most successful barrier in Melbourne Cup history (barrier 11). He will be on the pace and will try to out-stay his rivals.   
• The Case Against: His recent form has been below his best, and he appears to be weighted up to his best ability. He may lack the class to win a race of this calibre.   
• Verdict: An honest stayer who will give his all, but is likely to be outclassed.

13. Changingoftheguard

• Trainer: Kris Lees. Jockey: Tim Clark. Weight: 53kg. Barrier: 24.
• The Case For: He is a tough, on-pace stayer who will look to roll forward and make his own luck.
• The Case Against: He has drawn the extreme outside barrier (24), which is a massive disadvantage over 3200m. He will have to do a lot of work early to get a forward position, which will likely take a toll at the end of the race. His recent form is only fair.   
• Verdict: The horror barrier draw makes his task almost impossible.

14. Half Yours

• Trainer: Tony & Calvin McEvoy. Jockey: Jamie Melham. Weight: 53kg. Barrier: 8.
• The Case For: He was the dominant winner of the key lead-up race, the Group 1 Caulfield Cup (2400m), showing a powerful finishing burst. He has drawn perfectly in barrier 8, which should afford him an ideal run in transit. He carries a light weight of 53kg and represents the best of the local hopes.   
• The Case Against: The primary and significant query is his stamina. He is unproven at the grueling 3200m distance, and there is a question mark over whether he can replicate his peak Caulfield Cup performance over an extra 800m.
• Verdict: Ticks almost every box except for the distance query. If he proves he can run a strong two miles, he is a major winning chance.

15. More Felons

• Trainer: Chris Waller. Jockey: Tommy Berry. Weight: 53kg. Barrier: 23.
• The Case For: He ran a solid fourth in the Geelong Cup at his last start, a race that is often a good guide for the Melbourne Cup. He is trained by Chris Waller.
• The Case Against: He has drawn very poorly in barrier 23. His overall form profile suggests he may be a level below what is required to win this race.
• Verdict: The wide barrier and questions over his class make him an outside chance at best.

16. Onesmoothoperator

• Trainer: Brian Ellison. Jockey: Harry Coffey. Weight: 53kg. Barrier: 6.
• The Case For: He was a strong winner of the Moonee Valley Gold Cup at his last start, earning his place in the field. He has drawn well in barrier 6.   
• The Case Against: Barrier 6 has the longest losing sequence in the race, not having produced a winner since 1965. The form out of the Moonee Valley Gold Cup can be questionable against the top-tier stayers.   
• Verdict: A last-start winner in good form, but faces a step up in class and a historical hoodoo with his barrier.

17. Furthur

• Trainer: Andrew Balding. Jockey: Michael Dee. Weight: 52kg. Barrier: 7.
• The Case For: He is the only Northern Hemisphere three-year-old in the race, an age group that has an excellent record in the Cup when they travel (e.g., Rekindling, Cross Counter). He carries a very light weight of 52kg and has drawn well in barrier 7.   
• The Case Against: His European form is a level below that of the top international contenders. He is still maturing and this may be too big a task too soon.
• Verdict: Fits a successful profile and is a potential improver. A good roughie for exotic bets.

18. Parchment Party

• Trainer: William Mott. Jockey: John Velazquez. Weight: 52kg. Barrier: 3.
• The Case For: He is the first American-trained runner to compete in the race, adding a unique element of international intrigue. He is a last-start winner, has drawn perfectly in barrier 3, and carries a light weight.   
• The Case Against: The American staying form is a complete unknown in the context of a Melbourne Cup. It is impossible to line up his performances against the European and Australian contenders.
• Verdict: A fascinating runner but impossible to assess with any confidence. A complete wildcard.

19. Athabascan

• Trainer: John O’Shea & Tom Charlton. Jockey: Declan Bates. Weight: 51.5kg. Barrier: 1.
• The Case For: He has drawn the coveted inside barrier, which will allow him to save ground throughout the race. He carries a lightweight and showed a glimpse of form when finishing second two starts ago.   
• The Case Against: His overall form is well below the standard required for a Melbourne Cup. He was well beaten in the Bendigo Cup at his last start.
• Verdict: Unlikely to be a factor.

20. Goodie Two Shoes

• Trainer: Joseph O’Brien. Jockey: Wayne Lordan. Weight: 51.5kg. Barrier: 20.
• The Case For: She is a progressive mare from the powerful Joseph O’Brien stable who has won four of her last six starts. Mares have a good record in the race, and she gets in with a light weight.   
• The Case Against: The barrier draw of 20 is a significant negative. Her European form is at a lower level than her stablemate Al Riffa.
• Verdict: A talented mare with a future, but the wide draw makes her task very difficult this year.

21. River Of Stars

• Trainer: Chris Waller. Jockey: Beau Mertens. Weight: 51.5kg. Barrier: 14.
• The Case For: She ran a fantastic race to finish second in the Caulfield Cup, enjoying a ground-saving run and finishing strongly. That is a prime lead-up form reference. She is trained by Chris Waller and carries a very light weight.   
• The Case Against: She needs to prove she can replicate that peak performance. The barrier of 14 is reasonable but not ideal.
• Verdict: A strong lightweight chance based on her excellent Caulfield Cup second. A must-include for exotic wagers.

22. Royal Supremacy

• Trainer: Ciaron Maher. Jockey: Robbie Dolan. Weight: 51kg. Barrier: 21.
• The Case For: He is a winner of The Metropolitan Handicap and ran a good fifth in the Caulfield Cup, suggesting he is a stayer of some quality. He carries a very light weight of 51kg.   
• The Case Against: He has drawn very wide in barrier 21, which will make it difficult to find a good position.
• Verdict: A talented stayer who is handicapped to run well, but the wide barrier is a major concern.

23. Torranzino

• Trainer: Paul Preusker. Jockey: Celine Gaudray. Weight: 51kg. Barrier: 18.
• The Case For: He was a strong winner of the Geelong Cup, a race that has historically been a very good guide to the Melbourne Cup. He is a tough, improving stayer with a lightweight.   
• The Case Against: The barrier of 18 has only produced one winner in the race’s history. He is taking a significant step up in class from his Geelong Cup win.   
• Verdict: A progressive stayer with a good lead-up win, but the barrier and class rise are concerns.

24. Valiant King

• Trainer: Chris Waller. Jockey: Jye McNeil. Weight: 51kg. Barrier: 10.
• The Case For: He is the top selection of the majority of racing experts. He fits the ideal profile of a modern Melbourne Cup winner: a lightly raced, progressive European-bred stayer with a featherweight of 51kg. His run to finish third in the Caulfield Cup was outstanding, as he came from near last and finished powerfully. He is trained by Chris Waller and has drawn perfectly in barrier 10.   
• The Case Against: He is still relatively inexperienced and has not yet won at Group 1 level. He will need a genuine pace in the race to allow him to unleash his strong finishing burst.
• Verdict: The horse with the perfect profile to win the 2025 Melbourne Cup. He represents outstanding value and is the leading contender.

Strategic Wagering: An Analyst’s Guide to Betting the 2025 Melbourne Cup

The preceding analysis synthesizes into a clear wagering strategy. The key variables are the likelihood of a soft track, which elevates the chances of European stayers like Presage Nocturne; the immense historical challenge facing topweight Al Riffa; the favourable barrier draws for most of the leading chances; and the critical divergence between the market’s favourite and the experts’ consensus top pick. This divergence points directly to Valiant King as the primary value proposition in the race.

Tiered Selections

Tier 1 (Top Selections):

• WIN BET – No. 24 VALIANT KING: The primary selection is based on the powerful convergence of positive factors. He possesses the ideal lightweight profile (51kg) that has been so successful in modern Melbourne Cups. His lead-up form was outstanding, his trainer is a master, and his barrier draw is perfect. The overwhelming consensus from industry professionals validates his credentials, and his market price offers excellent value relative to his high probability of success.
• EACH-WAY BET – No. 6 PRESAGE NOCTURNE: This French raider profiles as a formidable threat, particularly with the forecast of rain. His excellent Caulfield Cup performance was the perfect Australian debut, and he is bred to excel over 3200m on wet ground. He is a high-probability placegetter and a strong winning chance under favourable conditions.

Tier 2 (Exotic Inclusions):

• No. 14 HALF YOURS: The Caulfield Cup winner must be included in all exotic combinations. His dominant lead-up win and perfect barrier make him a major player, with the only question being his stamina at the end of two miles.
• No. 2 BUCKAROO: His elite Cox Plate form provides a different class angle to the race. While a stamina doubt, his quality is undeniable, and he is a key inclusion for trifectas and first fours.
• No. 9 ABSURDE: A proven performer in this race with an ideal draw and elite connections. He is a reliable stayer who can be counted on to be finishing strongly when others are tiring.

Tier 3 (Value for Multiples):

• No. 1 AL RIFFA: His class is too great to ignore completely, but the combination of his 59kg weight and barrier 19 makes him a risky win proposition at a short price. He should be included in the wider exotic combinations on the chance he produces a champion’s effort.
• No. 21 RIVER OF STARS: Her second-place finish in the Caulfield Cup was excellent. As a lightly-weighted mare from the Chris Waller stable, she has a strong profile to run into the placings.
• No. 8 MEYDAAN: Despite a very wide barrier, his talent and the booking of James McDonald make him a knockout chance to include in the bottom of First Four combinations.