Chelmsford; Analysis of the TimeWise top two ranked+The SpotlightsVerdicts+The Race Stats

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This comprehensive analysis works through the Chelmsford races in chronological order, identifying the TimeWise Master Top Two rated horses in each event.


4.45 Flutter Proudly Supporting Pancreatic Cancer UK Nursery Handicap (1m 2f)

TimeWise Master Top Two Rated:

  1. Captain Cairney (Evens)
  2. Time For Action (2/1)

Recent Form and Comments:

  • Captain Cairney (2yo, 9-9p): This horse had the run of things up front but still managed to win well over the Course and Distance (C&D) two weeks ago, with two subsequent rivals behind. He is considered a solid chance despite carrying 4lb higher now.
  • Time For Action (2yo, 9-7): She has finished second and first in her two previous nurseries at Bath (1m, soft), dominating throughout her last race for a clearcut win. She runs under a penalty with the same jockey (Jack Dace) up top, and gives the impression she will stay this far (1m 2f).

Spotlight Verdict:
The safest play is CAPTAIN CAIRNEY (nap) who made all for a comfortable success over C&D with two of these behind. Time For Action also dominated from the front last time but that was on soft ground at Bath and over 1m; she still looks the main threat.

Race Statistics:

  • Age Groups: The race is a Nursery Handicap restricted to 2-year-olds rated 0-60.
  • Fate of Favourites: Favourites have a record of 1 winner from 4 runners (1110) in previous equivalent races.
  • Trainer Records: Trainer records for runners in this specific race are not explicitly listed in the sources.

Assessment of Top Two Chances:

  • Captain Cairney:
    • Strengths: Proven C&D winner who won comfortably last time; sets a solid standard.
    • Weaknesses: Carries 4lb higher than his recent win.
    • Suitability: Ideal, proven over C&D.
  • Time For Action:
    • Strengths: Recent clearcut winner in a nursery, showing a dominant style. Expected to handle the increased distance.
    • Weaknesses: Her recent win was on soft ground at Bath and over 1m, making the transfer to AW/1m 2f a slight unknown. She also carries a penalty.
    • Suitability: High chance, provided she handles the AW surface and the 1m 2f trip.

5.15 Betfair Racing Podcasts Nursery Handicap (6f)

TimeWise Master Top Two Rated:

  1. Beach Partee (9/4)
  2. Corniche Girl (IRE) (7/1)

Recent Form and Comments:

  • Beach Partee (2yo, 9-7p): This colt has improved since being fitted with cheekpieces, achieving two wins in his last three starts. His last victory was over 5f here six weeks ago, beating a next-time-out winner, and he is expected to be at least as effective back at 6f. A 6lb rise shouldn’t prevent a bold bid from his inside stall.
  • Corniche Girl (IRE) (2yo, 9-9): She won a 6f Kempton 0-65 in August. A subsequent back-to-back winner finished second on that occasion, but Corniche Girl has struggled off higher marks on her two subsequent outings. She is now back in a 0-65 class, and Alec Voikhansky claims 3lb off her weight.

Spotlight Verdict:
The solid one here is BEACH PARTEE who is taken to defy the handicapper again and make it two wins in his last three starts. Solar Invincible (second choice) had a possible excuse on his nursery debut and is well treated on the pick of his maiden/novice form.

Race Statistics:

  • Age Groups: The race is a Nursery Handicap restricted to 2-year-olds rated 0-65.
  • Fate of Favourites: Favourites have a record of 1 winner from 3 runners (155).
  • Trainer Records (in this race): Tom Ward has a record of 0 wins, 1 place, from 1 runner (0-1-1).

Assessment of Top Two Chances:

  • Beach Partee:
    • Strengths: In excellent form (two wins in three starts) aided by cheekpieces; proven effective at this venue and expected to handle the 6f trip. Draws the advantageous inside stall.
    • Weaknesses: Faces a 6lb rise in the weights.
    • Suitability: High suitability based on recent form and local effectiveness.
  • Corniche Girl (IRE):
    • Strengths: Proven winner at this 6f distance and back in the 0-65 grade where she previously succeeded; jockey claim helps ease the top weight.
    • Weaknesses: Form dipped on recent starts off higher marks.
    • Suitability: Suitable for the class and distance, but needs to bounce back to August form.

5.45 Juddmonte EBF Restricted Novice Stakes (1m)

TimeWise Master Top Two Rated:

  1. Starlight Time (7/2)
  2. Timber Twelve (3/1)

Recent Form and Comments:

  • Starlight Time (2yo, 9-8): He won a weak 7f race at Epsom but was subsequently found wanting when a well-held eighth in a sales race at Newmarket. The race today should be easier, and he is capable of a bold show despite carrying a penalty and a bad draw.
  • Timber Twelve (2yo, 9-8): He won well at Kempton (1m), overcoming both market weakness (28-1 SP) and a wide draw, beating a subsequent clearcut winner. He needs to be respected even with the penalty incurred.

Spotlight Verdict:
This is trappy as the two penalised winners are drawn wide and the others with experience didn’t smack of imminent winners last time out. The waters are further clouded by a raft of newcomers but SPIRIT OF ATHENE could be interesting from stall 2.

Race Statistics:

  • Age Groups: The race is a Novice Stakes for 2-year-olds.
  • Fate of Favourites: Not explicitly listed in the sources.
  • Trainer Records: Not explicitly listed in the sources.

Assessment of Top Two Chances:

  • Starlight Time:
    • Strengths: Previous winner whose last race was at a much higher level, suggesting this is a drop in grade.
    • Weaknesses: Carries a penalty and is disadvantaged by a wide draw. His previous win was in a weak race.
    • Suitability: Needs to overcome the penalty and poor draw, but capability is known.
  • Timber Twelve:
    • Strengths: Impressive 1m debut win, overcoming a wide draw and proving the form by beating a next-time-out winner.
    • Weaknesses: Carries a penalty and is drawn wide in this race.
    • Suitability: Well suited to the distance and capable of handling external factors like a wide draw.

6.15 Best Odds On The Betfair Exchange Handicap (1m)

TimeWise Master Top Two Rated:

  1. Absolute Star (3/1)
  2. Stenmark (IRE) (6/1)

Recent Form and Comments:

  • Absolute Star (4yo, 9-12): She resumed progression when back at 1m, proving too strong for Kitaro Kich (who won next time) at Kempton four weeks ago. Given her lightly raced profile, further progress is possible, and a 5lb rise may not stop her.
  • Stenmark (IRE) (3yo, 9-12): This horse has raced only at 7f previously. He has shown improvement since joining his current yard, winning on AW at Southwell and then finishing a close second at Epsom. He is likely to be very competitive if he proves as effective over the new distance (1m).

Spotlight Verdict:
Preference is for ABSOLUTE STAR. Roger Varian’s filly scored at Kempton last month and a 5lb rise may not stop her with further progress a distinct possibility. The front-running Shimmering Spin (second choice) could go well from the inside stall back at the scene of his maiden win in September.

Race Statistics:

  • Age Groups: Open to 3-year-olds and older (3yo+) rated 61-80.
  • Age Group Winners (W-P-R): 3yo 4-3-22, 4yo+ 1-7-28.
  • Fate of Favourites: Favourites have a record of 2 winners from 5 runners (26633).
  • Trainer Records (W-P-R): David O’Meara 0-1-2, Jane Chapple-Hyam 0-1-1, Richard Spencer 0-2-2.

Assessment of Top Two Chances:

  • Absolute Star:
    • Strengths: Resumed winning form impressively at 1m recently; lightly raced with potential to defy the penalty and improve further.
    • Weaknesses: Faces a 5lb rise.
    • Suitability: High suitability based on recent form at 1m.
  • Stenmark (IRE):
    • Strengths: Showing strong recent improvement, including an AW win. Is likely well-handicapped if he stays.
    • Weaknesses: Must prove effectiveness over the new distance of 1m, having previously only raced at 7f.
    • Suitability: Potential but unproven at 1m.

6.45 Betfair Novice Stakes (7f)

TimeWise Master Top Two Rated:

  1. Freddies Star (IRE) (4/9)
  2. Rorys Royale (5/1)

Recent Form and Comments:

  • Freddie’s Star (IRE) (3yo, 9-7): Has displayed promising efforts on all three career starts, most recently when headed only in the final stride in a C&D maiden last month. This race provides an excellent opportunity for him to get off the mark.
  • Rory’s Royale (3yo, 9-7): He stepped up on his turf debut when finishing fifth (just ahead of Al Hofzan) at Kempton (7f) 15 days ago. He may do better again, but plenty more is needed to trouble Freddie’s Star.

Spotlight Verdict:
Roger Teal’s FREDDIE’S STAR sets a clear standard on RPRs and can’t be opposed. Al Hofzan (second choice) and Rory’s Royale are closely matched on recent Kempton form and can fight it out for the forecast spot.

Race Statistics:

  • Age Groups: Novice Stakes open to 3-year-olds and older (3yo+).
  • Fate of Favourites: Not explicitly listed in the sources.
  • Trainer Records: Not explicitly listed in the sources.

Assessment of Top Two Chances:

  • Freddie’s Star (IRE):
    • Strengths: Sets a clear standard on RPRs (85 RPR, 77 OR). Has proven C&D form and is highly likely to win.
    • Weaknesses: None apparent; considered the clear favourite.
    • Suitability: Excellent, based on recent C&D performance.
  • Rory’s Royale:
    • Strengths: Showing improvement, particularly on his latest outing at Kempton.
    • Weaknesses: Needs significant further improvement to compete with the top pick. RPR 70.
    • Suitability: Suitable for the 7f distance, but faces a tough task based on relative ability.

7.15 Betfair Exchange Handicap (6f)

TimeWise Master Top Two Rated:

  1. Giant (11/2)
  2. Lipsink (IRE) (3/1)

Recent Form and Comments:

  • Giant (5yo, 9-3p): This prominent racer holds excellent course form figures of 1122, though those were achieved over 7f/1m. His recent 6f Chester second demonstrates that he is equally effective over shorter. He has to enter calculations.
  • Lipsink (IRE) (8yo, 9-7p): This resurgent 8-year-old has completed a hat-trick (making it four wins in his last six starts) when winning over 6f at Wolverhampton ten days ago. He is hard to rule out due to his current mood.

Spotlight Verdict:
Richard Fahey’s strong recent record in this contest earns AZURE ZAIN the vote on the back of two good placed efforts on turf this autumn. Lipsink is thriving but the outside stall could be tricky, and the main threat from the Michael Appleby yard may come from Counsel (second choice), who was in cracking form when last seen on AW.

Race Statistics:

  • Age Groups: Open to 3-year-olds and older (3yo+) rated 61-80.
  • Age Group Winners (W-P-R): 3yo 0-4-16, 4yo+ 4-3-24.
  • Fate of Favourites: Favourites have a record of 2 winners from 4 runners (2021).
  • Trainer Records (W-P-R): Richard Fahey 2-1-3, David O’Meara 1-0-1, Michael Appleby 0-1-2.

Assessment of Top Two Chances:

  • Giant:
    • Strengths: Excellent course profile (1122), and proven effective at 6f elsewhere. Prominent running style.
    • Weaknesses: His best course form is over longer distances (7f/1m).
    • Suitability: High chance due to general consistency and ability over 6f.
  • Lipsink (IRE):
    • Strengths: Thriving right now, coming off a hat-trick of wins, including a recent 6f AW victory.
    • Weaknesses: The outside stall draw is a disadvantage.
    • Suitability: Excellent current form, but hindered by the wide draw.

7.45 ‘Timeform Sprint Series Qualifier’ Handicap (5f)

TimeWise Master Top Two Rated:

  1. Heaven Knows (7/1)
  2. Speed Of Maajid (10/1)

Recent Form and Comments:

  • Heaven Knows (3yo, 9-8): Holds a 1-13 overall record, but her single win was over 6f here. Crucially, she has finished in the first four on all six of her AW starts. OR 69.
  • Speed Of Maajid (3yo, 9-7p): He bounced back from some below-par efforts to finish second at Nottingham (5f) last Wednesday. However, he was beaten almost 4l and needs a bit more if he is to land a second career success.

Spotlight Verdict:
Mick’s Spirit should give it a good shot from the inside stall but preference is for MART, who turns out again before a 2lb rise for last week’s Lingfield second kicks in and has Toby Moore taking an additional 7lb off his back this evening.

Race Statistics:

  • Age Groups: Handicap for 3-year-olds and older (3yo+) rated 51-70.
  • Fate of Favourites: Not explicitly listed in the sources.
  • Trainer Records: Not explicitly listed in the sources.

Assessment of Top Two Chances:

  • Heaven Knows:
    • Strengths: Exceptional consistency on AW (always finished 1st-4th).
    • Weaknesses: Her win was over 6f, and this is only her second attempt at 5f, making the drop in trip questionable.
    • Suitability: Proven consistency on AW, but distance suitability is uncertain.
  • Speed Of Maajid:
    • Strengths: Showed a welcome return to form with a runner-up spot over 5f recently.
    • Weaknesses: Needs to find extra performance to win against this field.
    • Suitability: Recent 5f run confirms trip suitability.

8.15 Play Different With Betfair Handicap (1m 2f)

TimeWise Master Top Two Rated:

  1. Glorious Kitty (IRE) (9/2)
  2. Love Your Work (IRE) (6/1)

Recent Form and Comments:

  • Glorious Kitty (IRE) (3yo, 9-11): She is 0-11 but has been runner-up in her last two handicaps (AW/turf over 1m), narrowly beaten by only a neck most recently. She runs off 4lb higher here and her stamina over 1m 2f is unproven.
  • Love Your Work (IRE) (9yo, 9-12): This veteran won over 1m at Kempton last month. While the majority of his 97 starts have been over 7f/1m, he did win over 1m 2f earlier in his career. He finished a respectable fourth at Kempton 15 days ago.

Spotlight Verdict:
Another chance is given to BINTAZZO who failed to stay when a warm favourite for her handicap debut over an extended 1m4f at Newcastle. Pontefract winner Salaria (feared most) had a ready excuse (went off too hard) for her subsequent Redcar defeat.

Race Statistics:

  • Age Groups: Handicap for 3-year-olds and older (3yo+) rated 46-65.
  • Age Group Winners (W-P-R): 3yo 0-3-9, 4yo+ 2-1-10.
  • Fate of Favourites: Favourites have a record of 1 winner from 3 runners (13).
  • Trainer Records (W-P-R): Alice Haynes 1-1-2.

Assessment of Top Two Chances:

  • Glorious Kitty (IRE):
    • Strengths: Very consistent recently, placing second twice.
    • Weaknesses: Stamina remains a major question mark over this trip, and she faces a 4lb rise.
    • Suitability: Trip is a concern.
  • Love Your Work (IRE):
    • Strengths: Recent winning form (1m) and past history includes a win over 1m 2f.
    • Weaknesses: Aged 9, and most recent form is at shorter distances.
    • Suitability: Generally suited to AW, with historical suitability for the distance.

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