This response works through all Newcastle races in chronological order, drawing exclusively on the provided sources.
2.10 Win £250,000 With BetMGM’s Golden Goals Nursery Handicap (Class 4, 1m)
| Rank | Horse (Odds) | Trainer | Jockey |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Likeness (2/1) | George Boughey | Mr Billy Loughnane |
| 2 | Swift Winds (8/1) | Hilal Kobeissi | Miss Taryn Langley |
Recent Form and Comments
- Likeness: Bred to be better than this level and seems consistent. He was unlucky not to be a bit closer when a 2l second on nursery debut over C&D. He has clear claims off the same mark.
- Swift Winds: Was coming along nicely until outclassed in a Group 2. He was beaten about 4l in nurseries the last twice but has dropped another 2lb. Taryn Langley takes away another 5lb, and the horse is entitled to have some say.
Spotlight Verdict
The safest play is IZZ’NT SHE HOT who made an unconvincing start to her career but last time was much better at Southwell and she can benefit from this longer trip now into nurseries. Likeness made a positive handicap debut at this track when unlucky not to be a bit closer.
Race Statistics
- Age Groups: This is a race for 2yo.
- Fate of Favourites (Sample): The 2yo Anthropologist finished 4th in a previous sample race as the 3rd favourite.
- Trainer Records (General): Charlie Johnston has a 1-0-1 record in similar races. Trainer George Boughey has a 16% strike rate over the last 2 years (209 wins from 1305 runners).
Assessment of the Top Two
- Likeness (Top Rated):
- Strengths: Showed good C&D form on handicap debut (second), maintaining the same mark. Bred for a higher level.
- Weaknesses: None explicitly noted, though the Spotlight preferred Izz’Nt She Hot.
- Suitability: Clearly suited by the distance and surface based on recent form.
- Swift Winds (Second Rated):
- Strengths: Benefits from a 2lb drop in the weights plus a 5lb claim from the jockey.
- Weaknesses: Recent form includes being outclassed in a Group 2.
- Suitability: Entitled to have a say in this class.
2.45 Best Odds Guaranteed At BetMGM Nursery Handicap (Class 6, 7f)
| Rank | Horse (Odds) | Trainer | Jockey |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Truly Special (7/2) | D O’Meara | D Nolan |
| 2 | Lion of Mali (11/2) | J R Fanshawe | D Muscutt |
Recent Form and Comments
- Truly Special: Ran her best race so far when third of ten in a 1m nursery at Leicester two weeks ago. Dropping back in trip ought to help, and she could have an even bigger effort in her.
- Lion of Mali: Debut effort wasn’t without hope. He never posed a danger over 6f last time, but he could find extra now back at 7f and switched to a low-grade nursery.
Spotlight Verdict
LION OF MALI may be the answer. He is yet to build on his debut promise but that was his only 7f run and he looks the type to take a good step forwards. Athenian Spirit, Madame Koko and Truly Special may prove the pick of those with nursery experience.
Race Statistics
- Age Groups: This is a race for 2yo.
- Fate of Favourites: The Favourite/Total Runners ratio is 4 wins from 8 races (422).
- Trainer Records (General): D O’Meara has a 12% strike rate over the last 2 years. J R Fanshawe has a 14% strike rate over the last 2 years.
Assessment of the Top Two
- Truly Special (Top Rated):
- Strengths: Recent form (3rd at Leicester) is her best career run. The drop back in trip is expected to be beneficial.
- Weaknesses: Needs to produce an even bigger effort to win.
- Suitability: Highly competitive among those with nursery experience.
- Lion of Mali (Second Rated):
- Strengths: Unexposed at 7f (only run at this trip was his promising debut). Expected to take a good step forwards switching to a low-grade nursery.
- Weaknesses: Has not progressed since debut.
- Suitability: Highly suited by conditions if returning to debut promise.
3.20 Midnite A Next Generation Betting App Handicap (Class 5, 1m 2f)
| Rank | Horse (Odds) | Trainer | Jockey |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Without Compromise (11/4) | Antony Brittain | Cameron Hardie |
| 2 | Stipulation (4/1) | Daniel Mark Loughnane | D Muscutt |
| 3 | Molinari (6/1) | M Todhunter | Mark Winn |
Recent Form and Comments
- Without Compromise: Broke his duck over C&D last month. He showed better form when second off this mark here ten days ago, finishing clear of the third. He is 4lb well in (due to be 4lb higher from the weekend) and must be high on the list.
- Stipulation: Has been on the up recently, securing two wins (1m2f and 9.5f) followed by finishing third on his last two starts. There is no obvious reason why he wouldn’t go well again.
- Molinari: Secured two course wins in late 2024, including the corresponding event. He retains ability and wasn’t beaten far off this mark behind Without Compromise three weeks ago; has each-way claims.
Spotlight Verdict
WITHOUT COMPROMISE (nap) comes here on the back of two good C&D runs and can register another success. He is due to be 4lb higher from the weekend. Stipulation should go well again.
Race Statistics
- Age Groups: 3yo: 0 wins, 1 place, 5 runners; 4yo+: 2 wins, 3 places, 16 runners.
- Fate of Favourites: 2 wins from 2 races (21).
- Trainer Records (General): Martin Todhunter: 1 win, 0 place, 1 runner. Jedd O’Keeffe: 0 wins, 1 place, 1 runner. Antony Brittain has a 6% strike rate over the last 2 years.
Assessment of the Top Two
- Without Compromise (Top Rated):
- Strengths: Excellent current C&D form (win and second), running 4lb below his actual mark.
- Weaknesses: Picked off late in his recent second.
- Suitability: High confidence based on recent performance and favorable weight situation.
- Stipulation (Second Rated):
- Strengths: Progressive, consistent form recently over similar trips (two wins/two thirds).
- Weaknesses: None explicitly noted.
- Suitability: Expected to run well again in this company.
3.55 Bet £10 Get £40 With BetMGM EBF Maiden Fillies’ Stakes (Class 5, 7f)
| Rank | Horse (Odds) | Trainer | Jockey |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Quilt (13/8) | Ed Walker | George Downing |
| 2 | Emilia Casanova (4/1) | K R Burke | Pierre-Louis Jamin |
Recent Form and Comments
- Quilt: Shaped with promise amidst inexperience on her Kempton debut (7f) three weeks ago, beaten just over 4l. She is one to consider with improvement likely, and she sets the standard.
- Emilia Casanova: A well-bred filly who looked in need of the experience when midfield in a Leicester fillies’ maiden on debut. She could take a major step forward.
Spotlight Verdict
Quilt sets the standard and should go well, but Fashion People is a newcomer of note and EMILIA CASANOVA could leave her Leicester debut run well behind her.
Race Statistics
- Age Groups: This is a race for 2yo fillies.
- Fate of Favourites: Not provided in the source material.
- Trainer Records (General): K R Burke has an 18% strike rate over the last 2 years. Ed Walker has a 14% strike rate over the last 2 years.
Assessment of the Top Two
- Quilt (Top Rated):
- Strengths: Sets the standard based on RPRs (83). Expected to show improvement from debut.
- Weaknesses: None noted.
- Suitability: High chance of success if replicating or improving upon debut run.
- Emilia Casanova (Second Rated):
- Strengths: Well-bred, expected to improve significantly now she has had experience.
- Weaknesses: Only a midfield finish on debut.
- Suitability: Potential for a major step forward makes her competitive.
4.30 Read Meg Nicholls’ Blog At betmgm.co.uk EBF Novice Stakes (Class 5, 1m)
| Rank | Horse (Odds) | Trainer | Jockey |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Emtinan (7/2) | Charles Hills | Paul Mulrennan |
| 2 | Be Patient (4/1) | Ed Bethell | Callum Rodriguez |
Recent Form and Comments
- Emtinan: Showed ability on debut at York last month. The runner-up from that race has since finished second in the Horris Hill, elevating the form. He is unlikely to have a problem with AW based on pedigree and is shortlisted.
- Be Patient: Finished third over C&D on his debut last month. That form has taken a couple of knocks. He is open to improvement, but this looks a stronger event.
Spotlight Verdict
Roger Varian has already had a winning juvenile for Godolphin this year… and he fields another likely sort in GLORY OF THE SEAS (a newcomer). The main danger could be Emtinan, who shaped well at York on his debut.
Race Statistics
- Age Groups: This is a race for 2yo.
- Fate of Favourites (Sample): Edge Ofthe Unknown finished outside the places as the 4th favourite in a previous sample race.
- Trainer Records (General): C Hills has an 11% strike rate over the last 2 years. E Bethell has a 16% strike rate over the last 2 years.
Assessment of the Top Two
- Emtinan (Top Rated):
- Strengths: Solid debut form which has been advertised by the runner-up subsequently. Pedigree suggests suitability for AW.
- Weaknesses: None explicitly stated.
- Suitability: Shortlisted as a major contender.
- Be Patient (Second Rated):
- Strengths: Has course and distance form (3rd). Open to improvement on his second start.
- Weaknesses: Debut form has taken knocks, and the event looks stronger now.
- Suitability: Needs to improve to challenge Emtinan and the promising newcomers.
5.00 Midnite: Built For 2025 Not 2005 Handicap (Class 4, 5f)
| Rank | Horse (Odds) | Trainer | Jockey |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Easy Peeler (100/30) | J & S Quinn | Jason Hart |
| 2 | Alligator Alley (9/2) | Mrs R A Carr | Kaiya Fraser |
Recent Form and Comments
- Easy Peeler: Dual turf winner who won at second attempt on AW when making all in first-time visor over 6f here last time. She has claims from a 4lb higher mark if she is able to dominate on her first 5f run.
- Alligator Alley: Matched the pick of this year’s turf form when winning over C&D last week. He is 2lb ahead of his mark under his penalty. A consistent sort who is likely to run well.
Spotlight Verdict
The one who makes most appeal is EASY PEELER, who bagged an uncontested lead in a first-time visor over 6f last time and may be able to do the same again, despite taking a drop in trip. Alligator Alley is 2lb ahead of his mark for his recent C&D win and looks the main danger.
Race Statistics
- Age Groups: 3yo: 1 win, 3 places, 23 runners; 4yo+: 6 wins, 10 places, 55 runners.
- Fate of Favourites: 3 wins, 2 non-placings from 7 races (3200431).
- Trainer Records (General): Paul Midgley: 2 wins, 0 place, 5 runners. Richard Fahey: 0 wins, 1 place, 1 runner. Mrs R A Carr: 0 wins, 1 place, 7 runners.
Assessment of the Top Two
- Easy Peeler (Top Rated):
- Strengths: Recent Newcastle winner who may be able to exploit front-running tactics again (first-time visor used last time).
- Weaknesses: 4lb higher, dropping back in distance to 5f for the first time.
- Suitability: Claims depend on retaining dominance at the shorter trip.
- Alligator Alley (Second Rated):
- Strengths: Proven C&D winner (last week), racing 2lb ahead of the handicapper even with the penalty. Consistent.
- Weaknesses: Already carrying a penalty.
- Suitability: Highly likely to run well given recent performance.
5.30 Always Gamble Responsibly At BetMGM Handicap (Class 6, 1m)
| Rank | Horse (Odds) | Trainer | Jockey |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Coramento (100/30) | D W Thompson | Oisin Orr |
| 2 | Imola (11/2) | Joey Ramsden | Mr Andrea Pinna |
| 3 | Urban Dandy (7/1) | Tony Coyle | D Nolan |
Recent Form and Comments
- Coramento: Consistent sort who scored over 7f here last time, his second win at this venue. He is 3lb higher but has won over this 1m trip and will likely give another good account.
- Imola: Exposed maiden but has run respectably following a break on both runs for this trainer. He won’t mind the return to 1m and should give another good account.
- Urban Dandy: Broke a losing run over C&D in March. He was just in front of a subsequent winner over 7f at Southwell last time. The return to this 1m trip should suit, and he is a player.
Spotlight Verdict
Slight preference is for stable companion WHERES THE CRUMPET, who ran well behind a subsequent dual winner over C&D last time. Coramento registered a second win at Newcastle last time and won’t mind the return to 1m. Urban Dandy looks third best.
Race Statistics
- Age Groups: 3yo: 2 wins, 2 places, 19 runners; 4yo+: 4 wins, 10 places, 55 runners.
- Fate of Favourites: 5 wins, 1 non-placing from 6 races (501362).
- Trainer Records (General): Lawrence Mullaney: 1 win, 0 place, 1 runner. D W Thompson has an 8% strike rate over the last 2 years.
Assessment of the Top Two
- Coramento (Top Rated):
- Strengths: Consistent, recent 7f winner here, proven over 1m. Expected to give a good account.
- Weaknesses: Carrying 3lb extra.
- Suitability: Well suited by track and trip.
- Imola (Second Rated):
- Strengths: Showing respectable form for new trainer following a break, suited by the 1m trip.
- Weaknesses: Exposed maiden status.
- Suitability: Expected to run well.
6.00 Midnite Are Upping The Betting Game Handicap (Div I) (Class 6, 6f)
| Rank | Horse (Odds) | Trainer | Jockey |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Colour Code (11/4) | Miss L A Perratt | Kaiya Fraser |
| 2 | Bad Habits (8/1) | Mrs R A Carr | James Sullivan |
Recent Form and Comments
- Colour Code: Secured her first win at the 17th attempt when winning a C&D classified event in August. She has not been seen since, and it remains to be seen if she can back it up after a break and return to a handicap.
- Bad Habits: Has slipped a fair way in the weights. He shaped with a good deal more encouragement when third last month, following a six-month break. He has claims from the same mark.
Spotlight Verdict
The suggestion is BAD HABITS, who has slipped a fair way in the weights and shaped with much more encouragement at Southwell last time. He’s taken to get the better of C&D winner Uncle Sam.
Race Statistics
- Age Groups: 3yo: 0 wins, 1 place, 3 runners; 4yo+: 2 wins, 3 places, 15 runners.
- Fate of Favourites: 2 wins from 2 races (21).
- Trainer Records (General): Alan Brown: 0 wins, 1 place, 2 runners. Philip Kirby: 0 wins, 1 place, 1 runner. Mrs R A Carr has an 11% strike rate over the last 2 years.
Assessment of the Top Two
- Colour Code (Top Rated):
- Strengths: C&D winner.
- Weaknesses: Required 17 attempts to win, inconsistent, returning from a break and back into a handicap.
- Suitability: Uncertain form renewal given the break and step up in class/conditions.
- Bad Habits (Second Rated):
- Strengths: Significantly dropped in weights, encouraging recent run (3rd) after a substantial break. Racing off the same mark.
- Weaknesses: Needs to confirm recent hint of form.
- Suitability: Strong contender if he builds on his last run.
6.30 Midnite Are Upping The Betting Game Handicap (Div II) (Class 6, 6f)
| Rank | Horse (Odds) | Trainer | Jockey |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Bibendum (100/30) | Miss J A Camacho | Ryan Sexton |
| 2 | Newyorkstateofmind (10/1) | Mrs R A Carr | James Sullivan |
Recent Form and Comments
- Bibendum: Is back to form since joining this team. He was beaten by a nose over 5f here last week and is 3lb ahead of his mark. The return to 6f should suit him.
- Newyorkstateofmind: Has had plenty of chances since his last win over a year ago. He was not at his best in a first-time visor last time (cheekpieces refitted now).
Spotlight Verdict
Although he’s not been a regular winner there’s plenty of upside to BIBENDUM, who has a recent success to his name and he was just touched off from this mark here last week. He’s 3lb ahead of the handicapper and he should be suited by the return to 6f. His main danger looks to be Masterclass.
Race Statistics
- Age Groups: This is a race for 3yo+.
- Fate of Favourites: Not provided in the source material.
- Trainer Records (General): Miss J A Camacho has a 10% strike rate over the last 2 years. Mrs R A Carr has an 11% strike rate over the last 2 years.
Assessment of the Top Two
- Bibendum (Top Rated):
- Strengths: Excellent current form, racing 3lb ahead of the handicapper. The 6f trip is expected to suit.
- Weaknesses: Not a regular winner.
- Suitability: Very strong chance based on recent run and favorable weight conditions.
- Newyorkstateofmind (Second Rated):
- Strengths: Cheekpieces refitted (though no positive impact noted previously).
- Weaknesses: Losing run exceeds a year, recent form is poor, performance declined in a visor last time.
- Suitability: Needs major revival; questionable suitability given current form.
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