This response works through all the scheduled races at Dundalk in chronological order, providing the requested analysis based exclusively on the provided sources.
Dundalk Race Analysis (Chronological Order)
5.15 Bar One Racing Better On Football Maiden
RTV 5f(AW) | For 3yo+ | Total Race Value: €12,000
TimeWise Master Top Two Rated
| Rank | Horse (Trainer, Jockey) | Master Rating | Latest Rating |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Lunigiana (W McCreery, W J Lee) | 87 | 43 |
| 2 | Masked Angel (D Dias, Wayne Hassett) | 74 | 70 |
Recent Form and Comments
- Lunigiana: The filly showed good 2yo form, including a Listed third. She has produced fine runs in three outings since her belated return last month. In her latest run, she was beaten a short head over 5f at Navan (soft), with stablemate Astute Power finishing close behind. She is noted for her consistency.
- Masked Angel: He built on a promising Sligo third when finishing runner-up in a 6f maiden here in September. In that race, he travelled well throughout and was only headed on the line, wearing a first-time tongue-tie (retained). The comments suggest he should have the pace for this 5f trip.
Spotlight Verdict
It is hard to knock Lunigiana’s consistency and she will be bang there again, though she is now 0-11 and may be short enough. Astute Power (3rd in her recent race) finished strongly and the stiff 5f trip should suit. The vote goes to MASKED ANGEL, who was narrowly denied over 6f last time and should have plenty more to come from her, despite needing to improve slightly on official figures.
Race Statistics
- Age Groups: 3yo 5-10-43, 4yo+ 0-0-6.
- Fate of Favourites: 41322.
- Trainers in this Race (W-Pl-R): Edward Lynam 1-1-4, A Oliver 0-1-1.
Assessment of Top Two Chances
- Lunigiana (Master Rating 87):
- Strengths: Demonstrates high consistency and ability, evidenced by 2yo Listed form and her narrow defeat last month. High Master rating suggests top-end potential.
- Weaknesses: Is now 0-11 and faces a potential handicap in being priced too short.
- Suitability: Expected to be highly competitive.
- Masked Angel (Master Rating 74):
- Strengths: Good recent run (runner-up at 6f here). Expected to handle the drop to 5f and is tipped to improve. The recent tongue-tie appeared beneficial.
- Weaknesses: Needs to improve slightly on current official figures to match the best in the race.
5.45 Irish Stallion Farms EBF Fillies Maiden
RTV 7f(AW) | For 2yo | Total Race Value: €18,000
TimeWise Master Top Two Rated
| Rank | Horse (Trainer, Jockey) | Master Rating | Latest Rating |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Astronomically (D A O’Brien, Paddy Harnett) | 91 | 48 |
| 2 | Liberation Date (J Foley, Luke McAteer) | 76 | – |
Recent Form and Comments
- Astronomically: Made a very pleasing debut when finishing fourth of 14 over the course and distance (C&D) nine days ago, beaten by 1.75 lengths. She is expected to improve and should be difficult to beat.
- Liberation Date: She was fifth in a Leopardstown barrier trial in August. On her Curragh debut over 6f last month, she was beaten 5 lengths into fifth of 12. She is considered an each-way contender.
Spotlight Verdict
This winnable fillies’ maiden is predicted to go the way of ASTRONOMICALLY, due to the promise shown on her C&D debut nine days ago. Joseph O’Brien’s newcomer, Celtic Melody, is respected in the betting. Prevalence is also likely to improve on her second outing, and the debutante Indomiknow is shortlisted.
Race Statistics
- Age Groups: All 2yo.
- Fate of Favourites: 6453021121.
- Trainers in this Race (W-Pl-R): Donnacha Aidan O’Brien 2-1-6, G M Lyons 2-2-11, Joseph Patrick O’Brien 2-3-21, Ross O’Sullivan 0-1-1.
Assessment of Top Two Chances
- Astronomically (Master Rating 91):
- Strengths: Showed significant promise on her debut over this exact C&D. Expected to improve and possesses the highest Master rating in the field.
- Weaknesses: Only one start to date.
- Suitability: Major claims and looks difficult to defeat.
- Liberation Date (Master Rating 76):
- Strengths: Has a run under her belt (5th on debut) and barrier trial experience.
- Weaknesses: Needs substantial improvement, having been beaten 5 lengths on debut.
- Suitability: Considered an each-way contender.
6.15 Bar One Racing Your No.1 Bookmaker Apprentice Handicap
RTV 1m 4f(AW) | For 4yo+ | Total Race Value: €11,500
TimeWise Master Top Two Rated
| Rank | Horse (Trainer, Jockey) | Master Rating | Latest Rating |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Spy (C Byrnes, Jack Kearney) | 79 | 68 |
| 2 | Benavente (D Hogan, Julian Pietropaolo) | 78 | 78 |
Recent Form and Comments
- Spy: A dual-purpose runner. He recently performed exceptionally well, finishing third in a 2m1f handicap hurdle off a career-high mark. He also ran well on the Flat last month.
- Benavente: He returned to form with a C&D victory off an OR of 63 in September. Since then, he has put in two respectable efforts, including a second place in a 10.5f claimer three weeks ago under the same rider.
Spotlight Verdict
There are several horses here renewing rivalries, including Benavente and Satono Chevalier, along with Cherry Pink and Sarmiento Power. All have a chance, but SPY is favoured, as he ran a cracker off a career-high mark over hurdles last weekend and can take advantage of a lenient mark back on the Flat.
Race Statistics
- Age Groups: The race is for 4yo+.
- Fate of Favourites: Not provided in the sources for this race.
- Trainers in this Race (W-Pl-R): Not provided in the sources for this race.
Assessment of Top Two Chances
- Spy (Master Rating 79):
- Strengths: Highly in-form following a strong run over hurdles. Looks exceptionally well treated back on the Flat. Has the highest Master rating in the field.
- Weaknesses: Dual-purpose performer, focus split between codes. His most notable recent run was over hurdles.
- Suitability: Tipped to win, capitalizing on a favorable Flat mark.
- Benavente (Master Rating 78):
- Strengths: Recent C&D winner and has shown good consistency (2nd last time). His latest rating (78) equals his Master rating.
- Weaknesses: Up in the weights since his previous C&D victory.
- Suitability: Respected, renewing rivalry with many rivals.
6.45 Irish Stallion Farms EBF Cooley Fillies Stakes (Listed Race)
RTV 1m(AW) | For 3yo+ | Total Race Value: €50,000
TimeWise Master Top Two Rated
| Rank | Horse (Trainer, Jockey) | Master Rating | Latest Rating |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Aviatrice (D Marnane, Luke McAteer) | 104 | 70 |
| 2 | Carolina Jetstream (A Murray, Ben Coen) | 103 | 57 |
Recent Form and Comments
- Aviatrice: She won a 6f maiden here last November. She demonstrated consistency by bolting up from the front in a 7f handicap at Dundalk last month, finishing ahead of Empress Artemis and Shavasi. She is in excellent form and benefits from a rail draw.
- Carolina Jetstream: Both her wins have been recorded at Dundalk over 1m to 10.5f. She was beaten out of sight over an inadequate 6f in a Curragh Listed race last month, but she has few miles on the clock.
Spotlight Verdict
Ger Lyons’ yard has frequently won this race, making Naomi Lapaglia a major supporter. Smiling is considered Ballydoyle’s best chance. However, the selection is SHAVASI, who has better terms at the weights this time, particularly against Aviatrice and Empress Artemis, and the step up in trip is expected to suit her. Jancis is also one to consider.
Race Statistics
- Age Groups: 3yo 6-13-93, 4yo+ 4-7-37.
- Fate of Favourites: 1112156101.
- Trainers in this Race (W-Pl-R): G M Lyons 3-2-12, A P O’Brien 1-3-19, Joseph Patrick O’Brien 0-4-22, W McCreery 0-1-6.
Assessment of Top Two Chances
- Aviatrice (Master Rating 104):
- Strengths: Highest Master rating in the field. In superb form following an emphatic win here last month. Has the advantage of the rail draw.
- Weaknesses: Faces a much tougher assignment at the weights in this Listed race.
- Suitability: Form is undeniable, but weight conditions are challenging.
- Carolina Jetstream (Master Rating 103):
- Strengths: High Master rating. Proven winning record at Dundalk over this distance range. Lightly raced (few miles on the clock).
- Weaknesses: Disappointed severely last time over 6f.
- Suitability: The return to the all-weather surface could trigger a revival.
7.20 Irish Stallion Farms EBF (C & G) Maiden
RTV 1m(AW) | For 2yo | Total Race Value: €18,000
TimeWise Master Top Two Rated
| Rank | Horse (Trainer, Jockey) | Master Rating | Latest Rating |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Manton Bay (D Marnane, Luke McAteer) | 79 | – |
| 2 | Santa Bravado (A Oliver, W J Lee) | 77 | – |
Recent Form and Comments
- Manton Bay: This Ulysses colt was not disgraced on his Curragh debut in September (finished 6th). He stayed on late after being slowly away. More improvement is expected from him.
- Santa Bravado: This Iffraaj colt showed debut promise in a decent Curragh maiden, finishing fifth and beaten by less than 3 lengths. He is respected in this field.
Spotlight Verdict
The likely favourite (Lauda) is passed over in favour of MINELLA ROCKETT, who showed plenty of pace at Tipperary and should perform well from a good draw. Other likely improvers include Mid Flight, Santa Bravado, and Senator Of State. Market support for newcomers such as Grand Premiere, Koekkoek, and Starflow must be noted.
Race Statistics
- Age Groups: All 2yo.
- Fate of Favourites: 01120111.
- Trainers in this Race (W-Pl-R): Donnacha Aidan O’Brien 1-2-5, G M Lyons 1-2-5, Mrs John Harrington 1-2-5, Joseph Patrick O’Brien 0-1-11.
Assessment of Top Two Chances
- Manton Bay (Master Rating 79):
- Strengths: Highest Master rating. Showed promise on debut (6th) despite a slow start, suggesting ability is greater than form figures imply.
- Weaknesses: Only one start. Needs to build on initial effort.
- Suitability: Expected to show more, highly rated by TimeWise.
- Santa Bravado (Master Rating 77):
- Strengths: Showed promise on debut, finishing close up (5th) in a competitive maiden. Noted as a likely improver.
- Weaknesses: Only one start.
- Suitability: Respected and capable of playing a role in the finish.
7.55 Bar One Racing Best Odds Guaranteed Handicap
RTV 1m(AW) | For 3yo+ | Total Race Value: €22,000
TimeWise Master Top Two Rated
| Rank | Horse (Trainer, Jockey) | Master Rating | Latest Rating |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Tokenomics (D Marnane, Luke McAteer) | 100 | 73 |
| 2 | Diego El Queso (G Lyons, Colin Keane) | 99 | 60 |
Recent Form and Comments
- Tokenomics: Has four wins, including at Dundalk (7f). Currently in good form, having finished second by a neck at the Curragh and here last month. She is sure to be thereabouts and seems capable of handling 1m.
- Diego El Queso: This 3yo justified short-priced favouritism by winning a C&D maiden a week ago. He overcame a wide draw to win going away. He is the least exposed horse in the race.
Spotlight Verdict
The low turnout for the prize money might offer a good opportunity for top weight TOKENOMICS (nap) to improve on last month’s result. Diego El Queso, the recent C&D maiden winner, is open to further improvement, but his opening handicap mark is viewed as potentially high.
Race Statistics
- Age Groups: 3yo 4-5-51, 4yo+ 6-14-78.
- Fate of Favourites: 26052PP350.
- Trainers in this Race (W-Pl-R): Denis Gerard Hogan 1-0-5, G M Lyons 1-0-3, Miss Hilary McLoughlin 1-0-2, Stephen Thorne 0-1-1.
Assessment of Top Two Chances
- Tokenomics (Master Rating 100):
- Strengths: Highest Master rating and is in excellent recent form, going close twice last month. Has winning form at Dundalk and is judged sure to be competitive.
- Weaknesses: Carries top weight. Hung right on her latest run.
- Suitability: Tipped as the clear favourite/nap.
- Diego El Queso (Master Rating 99):
- Strengths: Recent C&D winner who is lightly raced and capable of further improvement.
- Weaknesses: His opening handicap mark is assessed as being high enough.
- Suitability: Must be respected due to potential, despite the high mark.
8.30 Bar One Racing Bet Builder Boost Handicap
RTV 1m(AW) | For 3yo+ rated 0-60 | Total Race Value: €10,000
TimeWise Master Top Two Rated
| Rank | Horse (Trainer, Jockey) | Master Rating | Latest Rating |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ballymagreehan (D Marnane, Luke McAteer) | 63 | 53 |
| 2 | Johnny’s Oasis (A McGuinness, Colin Keane) | 62 | 25 |
Recent Form and Comments
- Ballymagreehan: A lightly raced 3yo who secured a win over C&D in July. He subsequently ran creditably in August off a 6lb higher mark, overcoming being unsettled in the stalls and starting slowly. He is returning from a break.
- Johnny’s Oasis: Achieved a breakthrough win over C&D last month, coming from off the pace. He ran solidly off a 6lb higher mark last week but did not land a serious blow.
Spotlight Verdict
This field includes several runners who recently competed in a similar contest (e.g., Smaoineamh Sile, Alex Belardo, Colugo, Johnny’s Oasis). However, the advice is to oppose that recent form and favour BALLYMAGREEHAN, who was progressive over C&D when last seen, provided he handles the absence. Bowman is also mentioned as not being ruled out despite a recent disappointment.
Race Statistics
- Age Groups: 3yo 5-6-44, 4yo+ 5-14-95.
- Fate of Favourites: 6022515001.
- Trainers in this Race (W-Pl-R): John C McConnell 1-1-7, Adrian McGuinness 0-2-3, David Marnane 0-1-3, Denis Gerard Hogan 0-1-3, Ian Patrick Donoghue 0-1-2, T G McCourt 0-2-4.
Assessment of Top Two Chances
- Ballymagreehan (Master Rating 63):
- Strengths: Highest Master rating. Has won over C&D and is lightly raced, retaining capacity for improvement. Preferred choice in the Spotlight.
- Weaknesses: Has to overcome an absence.
- Suitability: Strongly considered if tuned up for his return.
- Johnny’s Oasis (Master Rating 62):
- Strengths: Recent C&D winner.
- Weaknesses: Ran off a 6lb higher mark last week and seems to have a bit to find with rivals based on that outing. Has a negative outside draw.
- Suitability: A feasible winner, but conditions and form suggest difficulties reversing recent placings.
Leave a comment