1. Market Moves Summary

Analysing early market movements is a critical first step in understanding the day’s racing landscape. These fluctuations often provide the earliest indications of stable confidence, revealing where informed money is being placed and which runners are being overlooked by connections and the wider market. By cross-referencing these shifts with trainer form and expert opinion, we can begin to build a clearer picture of the day’s strongest opportunities.

The table below summarises the most significant price changes across this morning’s markets, highlighting both the runners attracting strong support and those seeing a notable lack of confidence.

Morning Support	Market Weakness
Winter Crown (Wolverhampton 5:00): 13/2 into 15/8	Power Quest (Aintree 3:50): 3/1 out to 11/1
Bois Guillbert (Kelso 11:14): 9/1 into 3/1	Coup De Coeur (Kelso 11:14): 5/2 out to 15/2
Downmexicoway (Gowran Park 1:03): 7/4 into 5/6	Scarlet Jet (Kelso 10:45): 6/4 out to 7/2
Don’t Mind If I Do (Aintree 3:15): 11/4 into 11/8	Sagremor (Doncaster 2:00): 4/1 out to 11/1
Los Blanco (Gowran Park 3:20): 5/2 into 5/4	Gustavian (Wincanton 3:30): 4/1 out to 9/1
Walks The Talk (Kelso 10:45): 7/4 into Evens	Impose Toi (Aintree 12:55): 7/4 out to 11/4

The clearest pattern in the morning’s data is the particularly strong and sustained support for runners from the Henry De Bromhead stable at Gowran Park. This is exemplified by the significant morning plunge on Downmexicoway (7/4 into 5/6) in the 1.03, and similar positive moves for stablemates Los Blanco (5/2 into 5/4) in the 3.20 and Latopix (8/1 into 4/1) in the 1.38. This coordinated market confidence strongly suggests the yard anticipates a successful day. Elsewhere, trainer Dan Skelton has also seen consistent support for his Aintree runners, including Hidden History (3/1 into 15/8) and Only Way is Up (13/2 into 9/2). This is starkly illustrated in the 11:14 at Kelso, where strong support for Lucinda Russell’s Bois Guillbert (9/1 into 3/1) appears to have come at the direct expense of market rival Coup De Coeur (5/2 out to 15/2), signaling a major shift in sentiment for that contest. In contrast, the market for the 3.50 at Aintree has seen a major correction, with Power Quest drifting significantly from 3/1 out to 11/1.

Of course, these market dynamics are also influenced by late-breaking news, particularly the withdrawal of key contenders.

2. Non-Runners Overview

The strategic importance of non-runners cannot be overstated. Late withdrawals, especially of fancied horses, can fundamentally alter the competitive balance and betting landscape of a race, often creating new opportunities and challenges for the remaining field. Today, several key withdrawals have reshaped specific contests.

The most impactful non-runners identified from this morning’s reports are as follows:

• 12:20 Aintree – Mossy Fen Coolio: This is a highly significant withdrawal. As the Spotlight selection, Mossy Fen Coolio was described as possessing “bundles of potential” and was expected to make a winning rules debut. His absence leaves the race wide open for On Deadly Ground, the horse Spotlight had identified as the main danger and “feared most”.

• 3:15 Aintree – Dominic’s Fault: The withdrawal of Dominic's Fault is another key development. Spotlight identified him as the main danger to the primary selection, Don't Mind If I Do. His removal from the field significantly enhances the prospects of the Alan King-trained favourite, who was already attracting strong market support.

• 1:10 Wincanton – Lord Baddesley: This runner was a top-two selection on TimeWise ratings and a prominent contender in the market before his withdrawal, simplifying the task for the remaining runners, particularly Abingworth and the Spotlight selection Bourbali.

It should be noted that the data feed did not provide official reasons for any of the day’s withdrawals. These adjustments to the field now set the stage for re-evaluating the original expert selections.

3. Spotlight Tips Round-Up

The Spotlight selections, provided by dedicated race-card analysts, offer an expert qualitative view on each race. Comparing these tips against quantitative data, such as market sentiment and performance ratings, allows for a more complete and robust analysis of the day’s cards.

Below is a summary of the primary selections from the Spotlight team across the major UK meetings:

• Aintree Selections:

    ◦ 12:20 – Mossy Fen Coolio (Now a Non-Runner)

    ◦ 12:55 – Chasing Fire

    ◦ 1:30 – El Granjero

    ◦ 2:05 – Javert Allen

    ◦ 2:40 – King Turgeon (Nap)

    ◦ 3:15 – Don’t Mind If I Do

    ◦ 3:50 – Campfield Flyer

• Kelso Selections:

    ◦ 10:45 – Walks The Talk

    ◦ 11:14 – Heads Or Harps

    ◦ 11:42 – Gonnino

    ◦ 12:10 – Rickety Gate

    ◦ 12:42 – Rocheval

    ◦ 1:17 – Cadell

    ◦ 1:52 – Sir Carnegie (Nap)

• Wincanton Selections:

    ◦ 12:35 – Fasol

    ◦ 1:10 – Bourbali

    ◦ 1:45 – Jubilee Alpha

    ◦ 2:23 – Blueking D’Oroux

    ◦ 2:55 – Rubaud

    ◦ 3:30 – Gustavian (Nap)

    ◦ 4:05 – Kilnew Supreme

The most powerful signals are those where there is a clear alignment between expert opinion and market confidence. Today, several horses are both Spotlight selections and significant market movers. This confluence is evident with Don’t Mind If I Do (Aintree 3:15), Walks The Talk (Kelso 10:45), and Fasol (Wincanton 12:35), indicating a strong consensus between analysts and the betting market. Furthermore, some selections are also validated by quantitative performance metrics; both Chasing Fire (Aintree 12:55) and Rocheval (Kelso 12:42) are Spotlight picks that also appear as top-rated on TimeWise figures.

This brings us to the next layer of analysis: the objective, data-driven TimeWise ratings.

4. TimeWise Top-Two Rated

TimeWise ratings provide a quantitative measure of a horse’s likely performance based on historical data. These figures are an excellent tool for either confirming or challenging other information sources, such as market trends and expert tips, by offering an objective performance baseline for every runner. The following is a breakdown of the top two TimeWise-rated horses in each of today’s key races.

Aintree

• 12:20:

    ◦ Only Way Is Up: Top-rated runner for a top yard who should improve on his bumper form and is attracting market support.

    ◦ Spreadsheet Guru: Ran second to a Willie Mullins newcomer in an Ayr bumper and is bred to appreciate this step up in trip.

• 12:55:

    ◦ Chasing Fire: TimeWise top-rated and the Spotlight selection, reappeared with a win at Perth and has won on soft ground.

    ◦ Impose Toi: Joint top-rated runner who made the frame at three major spring festivals but is a notable market drifter today (7/4 to 11/4).

• 1:30:

    ◦ Andy Amo: Won well on handicap debut before a close second in a large field at Fairyhouse; represents a trainer who won this race last year.

    ◦ Hidden History: Won on stable debut before going close in a well-regarded Perth race; a lightly raced point winner open to improvement over fences.

• 2:05:

    ◦ Highlands Legacy: Improved for the switch to fences when winning at Worcester last month and may defy a 6lb rise.

    ◦ Mambonumberfive: Ex-French Grade 2 hurdle winner making his chase debut with a big reputation and a handy 4yo allowance.

• 2:40:

    ◦ Johnnywho: Clear second in the Kim Muir at Cheltenham in March and has a history of winning on his seasonal reappearance.

    ◦ Our Power: A proven stayer who was third in the Scottish National and returns with his trainer in excellent form.

• 3:15:

    ◦ Haarar: Consistent type who ran well when third in a series final in March and returns with his stable in good form.

    ◦ We’re Red And Blue: Dual novice hurdle winner last season who has run well in competitive handicaps and remains lightly raced.

• 3:50:

    ◦ Fridaysman: Showed something to build on when fading on debut at Huntingdon and should improve for the experience.

    ◦ Pureis King: Heavily backed when making a winning start at Market Rasen and commands respect under a penalty.

Doncaster

• 11:37:

    ◦ Eminency: TimeWise top-rated who returned to winning ways 18 days ago and represents an in-form stable.

    ◦ It Just Takes Time: A course-and-distance winner who was a close third last time out and holds a strong TimeWise rating.

• 12:15:

    ◦ Big Harry: Improved on his debut effort when a close second at Nottingham 11 days ago.

    ◦ Invincible Boy: Showed clear promise when second on debut at Ayr and represents a top yard.

• 12:50:

    ◦ Perfect Ruler: Has shown ability in two starts and hails from a leading stable that does well here.

    ◦ See That Spark: A previous winner who sets a fair standard based on form from 77 days ago.

• 1:25:

    ◦ Montassib: Course-and-distance winner who is TimeWise top-rated and ran in a higher grade last time.

    ◦ Zoum Zoum: A useful performer from a top yard who has been backed in the market this morning.

• 2:00:

    ◦ Sing The Blues: Top-rated and the Spotlight selection, he won on handicap debut and is open to further progress.

    ◦ The Resdev Scholar: Has won his last two starts and is a major market mover today (17/2 into 7/2).

• 2:35:

    ◦ Fine Interview: Scored for the second time this season with a win at Pontefract and comes here in top form.

    ◦ Realign: TimeWise top-rated runner from an elite stable who won on his reappearance 42 days ago.

• 3:10:

    ◦ Danielle: Highly-rated filly from the Gosden yard who has contested Group races and sets a clear standard.

    ◦ Karmology: Has won her last two starts, including a Listed race at Deauville, and is clearly progressive.

• 3:45:

    ◦ Castle Cove: Top-rated and backed into favouritism, this William Haggas runner ran well last time out.

    ◦ Lord Melbourne: A course-and-distance winner who scored on his reappearance 41 days ago for a top stable.

Gowran Park

• 11:53:

    ◦ Break My Soul: Consistent hurdler who was placed multiple times last season and sets a solid standard on chase debut.

    ◦ Qualimita: Represents a top stable and was in the process of running well before falling on her latest outing.

• 12:28:

    ◦ John The Diva: A course-and-distance hurdle winner who brings a strong TimeWise rating to his chase debut.

    ◦ Sophia Rose: A previous hurdle winner who ran an excellent second on reappearance and has attracted market support.

• 1:03:

    ◦ Downmexicoway: A very strong market mover this morning (7/4 into 5/6), he ran a fine second last time out.

    ◦ The King Of Prs: Has a solid rating and makes his seasonal reappearance for a stable with a good record here.

• 1:38:

    ◦ Latopix: Represents the in-form Henry De Bromhead yard and has been strongly supported in the market (8/1 into 4/1).

    ◦ Monkeyforajuice: A lightly-raced type who showed some promise in a bumper and has a top TimeWise rating.

• 2:13:

    ◦ Jacko Star: Ran a promising fourth on hurdling debut 40 days ago and holds a strong quantitative rating.

    ◦ Tim Toe: A bumper winner for the red-hot Henry De Bromhead stable who is a strong favourite on his hurdles debut.

• 2:45:

    ◦ Skylight Hustle: Represents Gordon Elliott and was a good third in a bumper on his last start.

    ◦ The Passing Wife: A dual point-to-point winner making his rules debut for a respected trainer.

• 3:20:

    ◦ Dschingis Dragon: A winner last time out for Henry De Bromhead and is a notable market mover.

    ◦ Los Blanco: Another strongly-backed runner for De Bromhead (5/2 into 5/4) who was a close second on reappearance.

• 3:55:

    ◦ May Call You Back: Represents Willie Mullins and comes here in winning form after a victory 30 days ago.

    ◦ Morell River: Showed good form to win on her latest start and has a strong chance on ratings.

Kelso

• 10:45:

    ◦ Scarlet Jet: Top-rated following an impressive 9l win at Perth in April but has been very weak in the market this morning.

    ◦ Tamarind Bay: His form in a Worcester handicap reads well in this context, though he is now 0-8 over hurdles.

• 11:14:

    ◦ Coup De Coeur: Boasts form figures of 3121 in British chases but is a significant market drifter today.

    ◦ Heads Or Harps: The Spotlight selection who won easily at Ayr on his final start last season and looks open to more progress.

• 11:42:

    ◦ Authorized Mission: A previous handicap winner who has joined a new stable and is attracting strong market support.

    ◦ Gonnino: The Spotlight pick, this lightly raced 6yo is unexposed and ran well on his handicap debut at Perth.

• 12:10:

    ◦ Grand Voyage: A dual hurdle winner but was pulled up on his reappearance last week and needs to bounce back.

    ◦ Rickety Gate: The Spotlight selection who is 2-3 over C&D and remains on a feasible mark following a good reappearance.

• 12:42:

    ◦ Rocheval: The Spotlight selection and a market mover, this lightly raced hurdler finished well in a valuable Punchestown final.

    ◦ The Navigator: A course-and-distance specialist who has made all to win on his last two starts here this autumn.

• 1:17:

    ◦ Dare To Shout: Goes well fresh and justified favouritism to win on his reappearance at Carlisle.

    ◦ Ned Tanner: A previous course-and-distance winner who holds a strong rating on his best form.

• 1:52:

    ◦ Sir Carnegie: The Spotlight nap who won well at Newcastle last week and looks capable of defying a penalty.

    ◦ Wearelongterm: Ran a good third over course and distance a fortnight ago and is effective on the ground.

Wincanton

• 12:35:

    ◦ Fasol: The Spotlight selection who is frustrating but sets a clear standard and has attracted strong market support.

    ◦ Miss Altea Blue: Won well at this course in March and returns from a wind operation with her top stable expecting more.

• 1:10:

    ◦ Abingworth: Has a strong overall record over fences with five wins and four seconds from 17 starts.

    ◦ Lord Baddesley: Top-rated but is now a non-runner.

• 1:45:

    ◦ Bethpage: In career-best form in the spring when winning at Stratford and is effective at this track.

    ◦ Jubilee Alpha: The Spotlight selection, a dual Listed winner as a novice, and could have more to come this season.

• 2:23:

    ◦ Blueking D’oroux: A Grade 2 hurdle winner and the Spotlight selection, he is expected to improve from his chase debut.

    ◦ Breaking Cover: Comes here seeking a hat-trick after comfortable wins in his last two chases.

• 2:55:

    ◦ Hamlets Night: A useful dual hurdle winner who kept good company on his last start at Cheltenham.

    ◦ Rubaud: The Spotlight selection and a Grade 2 winner who is heavily odds-on to win this contest again.

• 3:30:

    ◦ Scarface: A winner on his final start last season and has been backed in the market (13/2 into 13/2 in source, but from 6/1 to 3/1 on other source) on his return.

    ◦ Threeunderthrufive: A classy chaser who was second in this race two years ago and is top-rated for his reappearance.

• 4:05:

    ◦ Miracles Do Happen: Has solid placed form in bumpers and holds the highest TimeWise rating in the field.

    ◦ Mushtahrir: Represents an in-form stable and brings previous race experience to the table.

The final step is to synthesize these individual data threads into a cohesive set of summary insights.

5. Summary Insight & Analyst Notes

This final section synthesizes the day’s key data points—market moves, withdrawals, expert selections, and quantitative ratings—into a set of concise, actionable takeaways for the day’s racing.

1. Strong Stable Confidence: The most significant pattern of the day is the sustained market support for the Henry De Bromhead stable at Gowran Park. Multiple runners, including Downmexicoway and Los Blanco, have been heavily backed, indicating a strong belief from connections that the yard is primed for a successful meeting.

2. Confluence of Opinion and Money: The strongest signals are those where Spotlight selections are also backed by significant market moves. This is particularly notable with Don’t Mind If I Do (Aintree 3:15) and Walks The Talk (Kelso 10:45), where analyst confidence is being emphatically endorsed by the betting market, suggesting a high probability of a strong performance.

3. Impact of Key Withdrawals: The withdrawal of the highly-fancied Mossy Fen Coolio has fundamentally reshaped the opening race at Aintree (12:20). His absence removes the likely favourite and Spotlight’s primary selection, creating a new dynamic and elevating the chances of On Deadly Ground, who was already considered the main danger.

4. Ratings and Selections Aligning: There is a strong correlation between Spotlight picks and TimeWise top-rated horses, particularly at Kelso and Wincanton. Runners such as Rocheval, Sir Carnegie, Fasol, and Jubilee Alpha are endorsed by both expert analysts and quantitative models, suggesting a high degree of confidence in the primary contenders at these venues.