This response works through all scheduled Carlisle races in chronological order, providing the requested analysis based on the sources provided. The TimeWise Master Top Two rated horses are identified using the Horse RaceBase (HRB) Ratings Report, which explicitly lists the top contenders based on the TimeWise Master rating.
Carlisle Race Analysis (November 25th)
1. 12:15 Bowel Cancer Screening Programme Saves Lives Maiden Hurdle (Div I)
(Class 4, 2m 1f 33y, SOFT)
TimeWise Master Top Two Rated
Based on the HRB Ratings Report, the top two rated horses are:
- Harbour Island (FR)
- Mydaddypaddy (IRE)
Recent Form and Comments
| Horse | Recent Form | Comments |
|---|---|---|
| Harbour Island (6yo, 11st 4lb) | Won both bumpers last season. | He won both bumpers last season, over 2m on good to soft ground at Wetherby and Ffos Las. The stable is currently performing well (“going great guns”), and he looks like a useful hurdling recruit. |
| Mydaddypaddy (4yo, 11st 4lb) | Won on debut in a bumper. | He won “as he liked” on debut in a bumper at Huntingdon (2m, good to soft) in March. He is expected to be well-schooled over hurdles and holds strong claims. |
Spotlight Verdict
The Spotlight Verdict suggests this race is best left to the unbeaten bumper winners, with preference for MYDADDYPADDY. Harbour Island, who won two bumpers last term, is also considered likely to prove useful in this sphere.
Race Statistics
- Age Groups: 4yo 3-5-17, 5yo 1-2-25, 6yo 1-2-10, 8yo 0-1-1, 9yo 0-0-1.
- Fate of Favourites: 32111.
- Trainer Records (w-pl-r): Dan Skelton 1-0-2, Donald McCain 0-5-8.
Assessment of the Top Two Chances
- Harbour Island (Strengths & Suitability): Strengths include dual bumper success in his last two outings. Suitable as he is considered a useful hurdling recruit from a successful yard.
- Mydaddypaddy (Strengths & Suitability): Strengths are a commanding debut bumper win and strong credentials for hurdling. He is the preferred choice in the Spotlight verdict, indicating strong potential.
2. 12:45 Bowel Cancer Screening Programme Saves Lives Maiden Hurdle (Div II)
(Class 4, 2m 1f 33y, SOFT)
Note: There Runs Mary (5yo, 10st 11lb) is a non-runner.
TimeWise Master Top Two Rated
Based on the HRB Ratings Report, the top two rated horses are:
- Carrhill (IRE) (Master Rating: 87)
- Gaelic Glow
Recent Form and Comments
| Horse | Recent Form | Comments |
|---|---|---|
| Carrhill (5yo, 11st 4lb) | 0-7 in Irish points (placed once), finished tailed off in two recent hurdle runs. | |
| Gaelic Glow (4yo, 11st 4lb) | Showed some ability in two bumpers in the spring, including when fifth of 13 at Uttoxeter. | Purchased for £17,000 in May. Dam’s side pedigree includes useful hurdlers, suggesting he needs watching in the market on his stable debut. |
Spotlight Verdict
Preference is given to Dan Skelton’s new recruit REAL QUARTZ, who was bought for £190,000 after an easy Irish point win and has a good pedigree. Dual point winner Kent De Thaix and the stablemate Coolkatie are also in the reckoning.
Race Statistics
- Age Groups: 4yo 3-5-17, 5yo 1-2-25, 6yo 1-2-10, 8yo 0-1-1, 9yo 0-0-1.
- Fate of Favourites: 32111.
- Trainer Records (w-pl-r): Dan Skelton 1-0-2, Jonjo & A J O’Neill 1-0-1, Donald McCain 0-5-8.
Assessment of the Top Two Chances
- Carrhill (Weaknesses & Suitability): Form is poor, having finished tailed off in two recent hurdle runs and failing to win in seven Irish points.
- Gaelic Glow (Strengths & Suitability): Strengths lie in his potential and pedigree; he showed ability in bumpers and his dam’s side suggests suitable hurdling lineage. He is unexposed.
3. 1:15 Unibet Middle Distance Chase Series Veterans’ Handicap Chase (Qualifier)
(Class 3, 2m 3f 210y, GD-SFT)
TimeWise Master Top Two Rated
Based on the HRB Ratings Report, the top two rated horses are:
- The Widdow Maker (Master Rating: 141)
- Stoners Choice (OR: 130)
Note: Numerically, Ilikedwayurthinkin (140) is slightly higher rated than Stoner’s Choice based on the ‘master’ rating column, but HRB selects Stoner’s Choice.
Recent Form and Comments
| Horse | Recent Form | Comments |
|---|---|---|
| The Widdow Maker (11yo, 11st 2lb) | 6616-3 (Reappeared with a good third 11 days ago). | Only 1lb higher than his Exeter win in March. Should benefit from his recent run at Stratford. Won’t mind varying ground conditions and is an interesting contender. |
| Stoner’s Choice (10yo, 11st 11lb) | 472-00 (Well held in last two runs). | Runner-up off this mark over hurdles in February. He is considered unpredictable. Although unexposed as a chaser, he hasn’t run over fences since 2022, and others are preferred. Cheekpieces are reapplied. |
Spotlight Verdict
The vote goes to THE WIDDOW MAKER, who is well weighted based on his Exeter win and should benefit from his recent third-place finish. The main threat is Dubai Days, who returns after wind surgery.
Race Statistics
- Aggregated statistics (Age Groups, Fate of Favourites, Trainer Records) are not provided for this specific race in the structured format available for other races in the sources.
Assessment of the Top Two Chances
- The Widdow Maker (Strengths & Suitability): Strengths include a favourable handicap mark and proven recent fitness (third place 11 days ago). He is suitable for the veteran chase qualification.
- Stoner’s Choice (Weaknesses & Suitability): Weaknesses are poor recent runs and unpredictable nature. His suitability for chasing is questionable as he has been absent from fences since 2022.
4. 1:45 Fatty Renshaw Memorial Novices’ Handicap Hurdle
(Class 5, 2m 3f 218y, SOFT)
TimeWise Master Top Two Rated
Based on the HRB Ratings Report, the top two rated horses are:
- Cahiers Den (IRE) (Master Rating: 100)
- Roses Dart (Master Rating: 91)
Note: Numerically, Bo Cruz (107) and Rock N Roll Champ (105) have higher listed master ratings, but HRB selects Cahiers Den and Roses Dart.
Recent Form and Comments
| Horse | Recent Form | Comments |
|---|---|---|
| Cahier’s Den (5yo, 12st 0lb) | 56223- (Placed runner-up in three of six hurdle runs). | Irish point winner. Finished third in a C&D maiden in April, where he jumped left. Still shows potential and is an interesting contender now switched to a handicap on return. |
| Rose’s Dart (4yo, 11st 12lb) | 2063-6 (Runner-up in first bumper, promising third on second hurdle start). | May have needed her reappearance run at Perth last month. Still unexposed and could resume her progress back up in trip on handicap debut. Considered an interesting contender. |
Spotlight Verdict
The vote goes to BO CRUZ, who has improved with each of his four hurdle runs and is expected to be a factor on his reappearance. Cahier’s Den, Rose’s Dart, and Long Time Listener are noted as handicap newcomers who require market watching.
Race Statistics
- Age Groups: 4yo 0-0-1, 5yo 0-0-4, 6yo 1-1-4, 7yo 0-1-2.
- Trainer Records (w-pl-r): Donald McCain 0-1-2.
Assessment of the Top Two Chances
- Cahier’s Den (Strengths & Suitability): Strength is highly consistent recent form over hurdles, placing in half of his starts. Suitable for handicapping at this trip, despite having jumped left previously.
- Rose’s Dart (Strengths & Suitability): Strength is untapped potential, especially when stepping up in trip, supported by her earlier promising third over 2m 3f. She is unexposed and suitable for a handicap debut.
5. 2:15 Weatherbys nhstallions.co.uk Graduation Chase
(Class 2, 1m 7f 207y, GD-SFT)
TimeWise Master Top Two Rated
Based on the HRB Ratings Report, the top two rated horses are:
- Steel Ally (FR)
- Unexpected Party (FR) (Master Rating: 156)
Note: Numerically, Path D’Oroux (147) has a high master rating, but Steel Ally (Master rating absent from Raceform table) is selected by HRB.
Recent Form and Comments
| Horse | Recent Form | Comments |
|---|---|---|
| Steel Ally (7yo, 11st 0lb) | 21P2P- (Only just caught in a Grade 2 at Fontwell). | Useful front-running hurdler. He is an interesting recruit to chasing and is a big player if he performs near his best on his first run over fences. A tongue-tie has been added. |
| Unexpected Party (10yo, 11st 11lb) | 4225-5 (Won the Grand Annual in 2024). | Finished a clear second in this race last year. He was never involved on his Cheltenham reappearance last month but should be sharper this time and is a key player with Harry Skelton back riding. |
Spotlight Verdict
The verdict favours the useful front-running hurdler STEEL ALLY, marking him as an interesting recruit to chasing and a big player on his debut over fences. The main danger is Unexpected Party, who was second in this race last year.
Race Statistics
- Age Groups: 4yo 0-0-1, 5yo 0-1-2, 6yo 4-2-13, 7yo 0-0-7, 8yo 1-0-5, 9yo 1-1-3, 10yo 0-0-1.
- Fate of Favourites: 12F32F.
- Trainer Records (w-pl-r): Aggregated statistics are not provided for this specific race in the structured format available for other races in the sources.
Assessment of the Top Two Chances
- Steel Ally (Strengths & Suitability): Strength is his high class potential shown in hurdles, reaching Grade 2 level. Suitability is dependent on a successful chase debut, but he looks an exciting prospect.
- Unexpected Party (Strengths & Suitability): Strength is proven Class 1/2 performance, including a win at Cheltenham and runner-up finish in this race last year. Suitability is high based on course and distance history. Weakness is a poor recent reappearance run.
6. 2:48 Christmas Jumper Day 14th December Handicap Hurdle
(Class 4, 2m 1f 33y, SOFT)
Note: Throatlash (6yo, 11st 10lb) and Allbetsoff (9yo, 10st 7lb) are non-runners.
TimeWise Master Top Two Rated
Based on the HRB Ratings Report, the top two rated horses are:
- Book of Secrets (IRE) (Master Rating: 112)
- Jackpot Dainay (FR) (Master Rating: 111)
Recent Form and Comments
| Horse | Recent Form | Comments |
|---|---|---|
| Book Of Secrets (7yo, 11st 12lb) | -32372 (Finished placed in five of his last six starts). | Had a near miss at Newton Abbot in September. Although 3lb higher here, he pulled clear with the winner last time and is respected. The hood has been removed. |
| Jackpot D’Ainay (6yo, 12st 0lb) | /3F13- (Unchallenged when winning a novice previously). | Still unexposed after only four hurdle runs and should have more to offer this season. Needs a close look on his return, though previous use of patient tactics on handicap debut may have backfired. |
Spotlight Verdict
The vote goes to last year’s winner DISCO ANNIE (nap), who returns to hurdling off the same mark as her previous success. Jackpot d’Ainay is highlighted for his untapped potential, and Book Of Secrets is respected due to his recent near miss.
Race Statistics
- Age Groups: 4yo 0-0-2, 5yo 0-2-3, 6yo 1-0-3, 7yo 0-0-2.
- Trainer Records (w-pl-r): Rebecca Menzies 1-0-1.
Assessment of the Top Two Chances
- Book Of Secrets (Strengths & Suitability): Strength is high recent consistency, having performed well in competitive races and pulling clear with the winner recently. Suitability is good, but he faces a 3lb rise.
- Jackpot D’Ainay (Strengths & Suitability): Strength is unexposed potential from a leading yard, following an unchallenged novice win. He is expected to improve. Weakness: Needs to prove himself in a handicap environment on reappearance.
7. 3:23 Great Gable Mares’ Handicap Chase
(Class 4, 2m 3f 210y, GD-SFT)
TimeWise Master Top Two Rated
Based on the HRB Ratings Report, the top two rated horses are:
- Northern Air (IRE)
- Ostrava Du Berlais (FR) (Master Rating: 115)
Note: Numerically, Dollar Collar (118) and Similar Story (117) have higher listed master ratings, but HRB selects Northern Air and Ostrava Du Berlais.
Recent Form and Comments
| Horse | Recent Form | Comments |
|---|---|---|
| Northern Air (6yo, 11st 13lb) | /251P- (Won a Taunton maiden hurdle in January). | Maiden point winner who is lightly raced. Steps up in trip on stable and chase debut. There should be more improvement to come. |
| Ostrava Du Berlais (7yo, 11st 12lb) | 73224- (Won successive races in December). | Held subsequently off higher marks. She is 4lb above her last winning mark and, despite being the most experienced chaser, may be vulnerable to an improver. Regular hood is absent. |
Spotlight Verdict
The race is tipped for the Skeltons with the lightly raced NORTHERN AIR expected to make a successful chase debut. Similar Story, who performed creditably after scoring on her chase debut last term, is the main danger. Ostrava Du Berlais also holds solid claims.
Race Statistics
- Age Groups: 6yo 0-1-3, 7yo 1-0-2, 8yo 0-0-2, 9yo 0-1-1.
- Trainer Records (w-pl-r): Dr Richard Newland & Jamie Insole 0-1-1, Stuart Coltherd 0-1-1.
Assessment of the Top Two Chances
- Northern Air (Strengths & Suitability): Strength is potential for significant improvement as a lightly raced mare moving to chasing/a new stable. Suitability is high if she takes to fences well.
- Ostrava Du Berlais (Weaknesses & Suitability): Strength is vast chasing experience compared to rivals. Weakness is her mark, being 4lb above her last winning mark, which may make her vulnerable to improving mares.
8. 3:58 Nigel Hawke Raceday Experiences Mares’ Open Maiden National Hunt Flat Race
(Category 3 Elimination) (Class 5, 2m 1f 33y, SOFT)
TimeWise Master Top Two Rated
Based on the HRB Ratings Report, the top two rated horses are:
- Am I Bovvered (Master Rating: 91)
- Frankies Fortune (IRE) (Master Rating: 96)
Recent Form and Comments
| Horse | Recent Form | Comments |
|---|---|---|
| Am I Bovvered (5yo, 11st 2lb) | 4- (Remote fourth on debut at Kelso). | Needs to show much more than her debut run. |
| Frankies Fortune (5yo, 11st 2lb) | 15 (Won Irish point, finished fifth on rules debut C&D). | Won an Irish mares’ maiden point on debut. Got outpaced when fifth over C&D last month on her rules debut but may be sharper for the run. |
Spotlight Verdict
It may be prudent to side with the Dan Skelton-trained LUNE BRILLIANTE, who was a high-priced purchase and is related to several winners. Trinity Street and Halftheworldaway are noted as other notable purchases. Frankies Fortune may be fitter after her rules debut fifth.
Race Statistics
- Age Groups: 4yo 1-1-8, 5yo 0-1-3.
- Trainer Records (w-pl-r): Dan Skelton 1-0-1.
Assessment of the Top Two Chances
- Frankies Fortune (Strengths & Suitability): Strengths include winning a point-to-point and having rules experience on this course. Expected to be sharper for her recent run.
- Am I Bovvered (Weaknesses & Suitability): Weakness is poor form on debut, where she was a remote fourth. Needs a major transformation to compete successfully.
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