This detailed analysis covers the Cheltenham races scheduled for Saturday 15 November 2025, presented in chronological order, drawing upon the provided source materials.
1. 12:35 JCB Triumph Trial Juvenile Hurdle (Registered As The Prestbury Juvenile Hurdle) (Grade 2)
Distance: 2m 87y
Age Group: 3yo
Prize: £47,552 (Winner)
TimeWise Master Top Two Rated
| Rank | Horse | Age / Wgt | Jockey / Trainer | Master Rating (RPR) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Lord (GER) | 3 / 11-0 | Harry Cobden / D McCain Jnr | 123 |
| 2 | One Horse Town (IRE) | 3 / 11-0 | Paul O’Brien / Harry Derham | 123 |
Recent Form and Comments
- Lord (GER): Has form figures 2111 (49 days off). This horse has been productive in juvenile hurdles for Olly Murphy, gaining wins in emphatic fashion, most recently at Market Rasen (2m, good). He is effective around 2m and acts on good to soft and good ground, and may handle cut. He continues to progress, but this race demands much more. He was recently sold for £70,000.
- One Horse Town (IRE): Form 111 (27 days off). This flat scorer is 3-3 since being switched to hurdles, securing easy wins by an aggregate of 53 lengths. His latest win defied a big penalty at Kempton (2m, good). He is effective at 2m on good ground and looks a useful summer recruit over hurdles who brings potential to these deeper waters.
Spotlight Verdict
Precious Man is just preferred. He had previous jumping experience from Auteuil where he was successful in May, beating subsequent winners. He is marginally preferred to Parchment, another French recruit who impressed at Clairefontaine and has joined David Pipe. Secret Force, who looked a natural at Punchestown, must be feared.
Race Statistics
- Age Groups: 3yo runners hold a record of 10 wins, 17 places from 82 runs.
- Fate of Favourites: Favourites have won 3 times and placed once in the last 10 runnings (31166P4P31).
- Trainer Records (w-pl-r): James Owen leads with 2 wins from 2 runners (winning the last two runnings), followed by Dan Skelton (1-0-4), David Pipe (0-1-2), and Jane Williams (0-1-3).
Assessment of Top Two
- Lord (GER):
- Strengths: Unexposed and highly progressive juvenile form (4 wins). Handles ground with cut.
- Weaknesses: Faces a significant step up in grade.
- Suitability: Effective at the 2m distance.
- One Horse Town (IRE):
- Strengths: Unbeaten over hurdles (3-3) with decisive wins.
- Weaknesses: Needs to prove ability in this higher grade, having primarily won on good ground.
- Suitability: Effective at 2m.
2. 13:10 Debenhams Amateur Jockeys’ Handicap Chase (Class 3)
Distance: 3m 1f
Age Group: 4yo+
Prize: £12,832.50 (Winner)
TimeWise Master Top Two Rated
| Rank | Horse | Age / Wgt | Jockey / Trainer | Master Rating (RPR) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ballycamus (IRE) | 8 / 11-9 | Miss Amber Jackson-Fennell (7) / N & W Twiston-Davies | 134 |
| 2 | Kelce (IRE) | 7 / 11-0 | Mr A P Ryan / N P Mulholland | 140 |
Recent Form and Comments
- Ballycamus (IRE): Form P14-27 (21 days off). He achieved a respectable seventh in a large field over C&D (good) three weeks ago. He needs a bigger effort to return to the scoresheet as he remains on a career-high mark.
- Kelce (IRE): Form 21F21-4 (22 days off). This front-runner ran well in a similar C&D event (good to soft) on his seasonal debut, finishing just over 1l behind the winner (4th place), which confirms his solid claims. His form figures in completed chase starts are 221214. He represents last year’s winning stable in this race.
Spotlight Verdict
Back down in grade, HERAKLES WESTWOOD could well resume his progress and build on his two novice handicap wins from last season. Kelce is deemed solid and is the second choice, ahead of Sound And Fury, who may see further improvement. Aurea Fortuna and Jubilee Express also warrant consideration for the shortlist.
Race Statistics
- Age Groups (W-R): The most successful age groups are 7yo (4 wins, 4 places, 30 runs), 8yo (1 win, 4 places, 21 runs), and 9yo (1 win, 4 places, 26 runs).
- Fate of Favourites: Only 1 favourite has won in the last 9 runnings (1002P1451).
- Trainer Records (w-pl-r): Neil Mulholland leads with 2 wins (2 runs). Other notable trainers include Ben Pauling (1-1-5) and Christian Williams (1-1-6).
Assessment of Top Two
- Ballycamus (IRE):
- Strengths: Consistent recently (7th/18 C&D).
- Weaknesses: Still needs to produce a career-best performance off his current high mark.
- Suitability: Has C&D experience, though his win rate at the distance is 0% (0 wins, 0 places from 1 run).
- Kelce (IRE):
- Strengths: Solid recent C&D form against similar rivals, only narrowly beaten on seasonal debut. Good history of completing chases well.
- Weaknesses: Unable to dominate in his last outing.
- Suitability: Front-runner with solid C&D form. Age 7 falls within the dominant age group trend.
3. 13:45 Paddy Power Arkle Challenge Trophy Trial Novices’ Chase (Grade 2)
Distance: 1m 7f 199y (approx. 2m)
Age Group: 4yo+
Prize: £44,580 (Winner)
TimeWise Master Top Two Rated
| Rank | Horse | Age / Wgt | Jockey / Trainer | Master Rating (RPR) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Be Aware (FR) | 6 / 11-4 | Harry Skelton / Daniel Skelton | 155 |
| 2 | Breaking Cover (IRE) | 7 / 11-4 | Jonathan Burke / A J Honeyball | 144 |
Recent Form and Comments
- Be Aware (FR): Form 2/2388-1 (16 days off). He made a smooth transition to chasing by readily winning a handicap at Stratford (2m3f, good to soft) in a first-time hood, jumping soundly. He ran well in hot handicaps over hurdles last season, including when second to Burdett Road in the Greatwood. He is effective from 2m to 2 1/2m, handles good ground, and has potential to step up in grade.
- Breaking Cover (IRE): Form 1/2174-2 (7 days off). He has enjoyed five successes since returning from a long layoff in July. He ran well to be second in the Grade 2 Rising Stars at Wincanton (2m4f, good) last Saturday, chasing the hot favourite. He is effective at 2m on good ground and remains progressive.
Spotlight Verdict
The mare JULY FLOWER holds the strongest claims, having made a seamless transition to fences by scoring easily at Limerick. She is expected to develop into one of the season’s leading novices. Burdett Road sets the standard on his top-class hurdling form, but Be Aware (who has a chasing win under his belt) may get the better of him this time. Four-year-old Stencil is an intriguing contender as he receives weight all round and has stacks of potential.
Race Statistics
- Age Groups (W-R): 6yo runners dominate with 8 wins (0 places, 21 runs), while 5yo runners have 2 wins (2 places, 13 runs).
- Fate of Favourites: Favourites have a strong record, winning 8 out of 10 recent runnings (11232P11U1).
- Trainer Records (w-pl-r): Dan Skelton leads with 3 wins from 3 runners, followed by Henry De Bromhead with 1 win from 4 runners.
Assessment of Top Two
- Be Aware (FR):
- Strengths: Successful and sound chasing debut. Trainer Dan Skelton won this race last year. Already proven to run well at Cheltenham.
- Weaknesses: Needs to prove he is Grade 2 class having previously been 0-4 in this class over hurdles.
- Suitability: More to come over fences for this top yard. Suited by decent ground and handles soft.
- Breaking Cover (IRE):
- Strengths: Progressive over fences, winning multiple times recently. Ran a career-best last time in Grade 2 company.
- Weaknesses: Faces an even sterner test here. Soft ground conditions would be a concern.
- Suitability: Effective at 2m.
4. 14:20 Paddy Power Gold Cup Handicap Chase (Premier Handicap)
Distance: 2m 4f 44y
Age Group: 4yo+
Prize: £91,120 (Winner)
TimeWise Master Top Two Rated
| Rank | Horse | Age / Wgt | Jockey / Trainer | Master Rating (TFR) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jagwar (FR) | 6 / 12-0 | Jonjo O’Neill Jr. / Oliver Greenall & Josh Guerriero | 151 |
| 2 | Riskintheground (IRE) | 8 / 11-8 | Tristan Durrell (3) / Dan Skelton | 147 |
Recent Form and Comments
- Jagwar (FR): Form 11311- (247 days off). He improved rapidly as a novice over fences, winning 4 of his 5 starts, including the Timeform Novices’ Handicap and the Plate at the Festival in March. He is up 9 lb on his return, but more progress is expected. He is good-looking and a progressive novice chase winner.
- Riskintheground (IRE): Form 117-41 (28 days off). He won 6 times last season, including the Silver Trophy over C&D in April. He resumed winning ways in a small-field intermediate chase at Newton Abbot (21f) last month. He faces a tough assignment here off a career-high mark, and his best form is usually on good/good to soft ground.
Spotlight Verdict (Timeform)
JAGWAR (FR) is the Timeform Analyst Verdict selection and the market favourite.
Spotlight Verdict (At The Races / RP)
Sam Thomas is in flying form and VINCENZO, a highly progressive novice last season, is taken to make a winning reappearance. The mare Panic Attack is unexposed over fences and is second choice, ahead of Irish challenger Coming Up Easy.
Race Statistics
- Distance/Going: 2m 4f 44y, Soft (Good to Soft in places).
- Age Groups (W-R): 7yo (4 wins), 8yo (2 wins), and 9yo (3 wins) dominate the winners’ list. 9 of the last 12 winners were aged 7–9.
- Fate of Favourites: Only 1 of the last 12 favourites has won. Favourites have 1 win, 0 places in the last 10 runnings (0PP4F32U1P).
- Trends: 11/12 winners had run at Cheltenham before, with 8/12 winning at the course. 10/12 winners were rated 139+. 9/12 carried 11st or less.
- Trainer Records (w-pl-r): Paul Nicholls leads with 2 wins from 23 runners, followed by Alan King (1-0-4). Oliver Greenall & Josh Guerriero show a significant profit with a single runner in chases (£24.06 profit to a £1 level stake).
Assessment of Top Two
- Jagwar (FR):
- Strengths: Highly progressive profile. Value for extra when winning at the Festival. Strong course winner (2/2).
- Weaknesses: Carries 12-0 (high weight for trend). Jumping/stamina doubts noted previously, particularly over this C&D. Up 9 lb in the handicap.
- Suitability: Highly suitable course form, but tackling a tough premier handicap after a long break.
- Riskintheground (IRE):
- Strengths: CD winner (Silver Trophy). Winner last month. Trainer Dan Skelton is highly successful. Fits the age profile (8yo).
- Weaknesses: Must defy a career-high mark. Best form might prefer quicker ground than anticipated soft going.
- Suitability: Proven winner over C&D.
5. 14:55 From The Horses Mouth Podcast Handicap Hurdle (Class 2)
Distance: 2m 7f 208y (approx. 3m)
Age Group: 4yo+
Prize: £19,061 (Winner)
TimeWise Master Top Two Rated
| Rank | Horse | Age / Wgt | Jockey / Trainer | Master Rating (RPR) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Long Draw (IRE) | 6 / 11-6 | Sean Bowen / Olly Murphy | 146 |
| 2 | Supremely West (IRE) | 7 / 11-6 | Harry Skelton / Daniel Skelton | 148 |
Recent Form and Comments
- Long Draw (IRE): Form 141-34 (21 days off). He showed very good progress last season, winning over 3m on the New course at Cheltenham in December and April. His recent run resulted in a minor fourth place (just over 2l behind Supremely West) in October. He is reportedly unraced on ground worse than good to soft since entering handicapping.
- Supremely West (IRE): Form 2/3163-3 (21 days off). He has won 3 of 12 hurdles starts, with all wins achieved on soft or heavy ground (latest December last year). He finished a good third over C&D on his latest outing, following wind surgery, finishing strongly from off the pace. He should be primed for a major performance.
Spotlight Verdict
SUPREMELY WEST is highly favoured, having shaped with real promise on his seasonal return/first run following wind surgery over C&D last month, finishing ahead of Long Draw. Kikijo (nap) is lightly raced, and is strongly preferred as a horse that seems to thrive on a thorough test of stamina.
Race Statistics
- Age Groups (W-R): 5yo (3 wins, 1 place, 17 runs) and 6yo (3 wins, 4 places, 22 runs) are the most successful ages.
- Fate of Favourites: Favourites have won 5 times and been unplaced 5 times in the last 10 runnings (5411525U11).
- Trainer Records (w-pl-r): Dan Skelton 3-4-22 (from RPR context table), Paul John Gilligan 1-0-1, Christian Williams 1-1-6.
Assessment of Top Two
- Long Draw (IRE):
- Strengths: Proven winner over 3m at Cheltenham (2 wins, 2 places from 4 runs). Consistent performer.
- Weaknesses: Finished behind Supremely West recently. Uncertain form on testing ground in handicaps.
- Suitability: Strong course and distance record.
- Supremely West (IRE):
- Strengths: Expected to take a considerable step forward following wind surgery and strong recent performance. Prefers soft or heavy ground, suiting the forecast.
- Weaknesses: Needs to confirm expected progression.
- Suitability: Primed for a big run, highly suited to potentially easier ground.
6. 15:30 Paddy Power Intermediate Handicap Hurdle
Distance: 2m 5f
Age Group: 3yo+
Prize: £14,976 (Winner)
TimeWise Master Top Two Rated
| Rank | Horse | Age / Wgt | Jockey / Trainer | Master Rating (RPR) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | De Temps En Temps (IRE) | 6 / 11-2 | Freddie Keighley (7) / M Keighley | 144 |
| 2 | Royal Infantry (IRE) | 6 / 12-0 | Harry Skelton / Daniel Skelton | 136 |
Recent Form and Comments
- De Temps En Temps (IRE): Form 4-34211 (22 days off). He recently scored in a Uttoxeter maiden hurdle and followed up in a novice at Cheltenham (19.9f, good) 22 days ago, recovering from a mistake two out. He needs to find more now moving into handicap company.
- Royal Infantry (IRE): Form 11452-3 (35 days off). Scored on his first two starts over hurdles last season and bounced back from lesser efforts to be runner-up at Perth. Shaped well after six months off when third at Chepstow (19.4f, good to firm) in October.
Spotlight Verdict
French Ship had plenty in hand winning a similar event over 2m4f here last month, and an 8lb rise may still underestimate him, giving him the edge over the respected Jurancon. Royal Infantry has strong claims after his third at Chepstow. The verdict of one analyst suggests ROYAL RAMBLER holds the most potential, with Kap Boy (second choice), Royal Infantry, and French Ship ready to run well.
Race Statistics
- Age Groups (W-R): 5yo (5 wins, 10 places, 50 runs) and 6yo (3 wins, 6 places, 36 runs) are the most successful ages.
- Fate of Favourites: Favourites have a strong record, winning 9 of the last 10 runnings (1431132111).
- Trainer Records (w-pl-r): A J Martin 2-0-3 (won in 2024), Dan Skelton 0-1-3, Nicky Henderson 0-2-5, Olly Murphy 0-2-3, Philip Hobbs & Johnson White 0-1-2.
Assessment of Top Two
- De Temps En Temps (IRE):
- Strengths: Course winner (1/1). Showed tenacity rallying after a mistake. Has a good record on similar going.
- Weaknesses: Needs substantial improvement against handicappers.
- Suitability: Effective at 2m 5f and acts on soft ground.
- Royal Infantry (IRE):
- Strengths: Showed strong form returning from a long break. Respected based on recent third. Has a good win rate on similar going (57.14%).
- Weaknesses: Needs to confirm fitness/progression.
- Suitability: Respected, with strong claims.
7. 16:00 Cheltenham Guardians Safeguarding Team Mares’ Open NH Flat Race (Listed)
Distance: 2m 87y
Age Group: 4yo to 5yo
Prize: £14,860 (Winner)
TimeWise Master Top Two Rated
| Rank | Horse | Age / Wgt | Jockey / Trainer | Master Rating (RPR) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Edith Pelham | 5 / 11-2 | Jonathan Burke / F O’Brien | 112 |
| 2 | Katios Queen (IRE) | 4 / 11-2 | Tristan Durrell / Daniel Skelton | 114 |
Recent Form and Comments
- Edith Pelham: Form 1-1 (20 days off). She maintained her unbeaten record by winning a mares’ bumper at Aintree (2m1f) last time. The form looks strong, and the stiff track should suit her.
- Katios Queen (IRE): Form 1 (20 days off). She made a winning start in a nine-runner race at Fontwell (good to soft) last month, leading over 1f out despite market weakness. She is open to improvement and is a plausible contender for Dan Skelton.
Spotlight Verdict
CELESTIAL TUNE can extend the winning sequence for Irish stables (who have won the last two runnings) as she is progressive and has proven capable in big fields. Amina is a solid Irish-trained contender, but Eremenko, who impressed hugely at Southwell, may pose an even bigger threat.
Race Statistics
- Age Groups (W-R): 4yo runners have 8 wins (6 places, 81 runs) while 5yo runners have 3 wins (10 places, 51 runs).
- Fate of Favourites: Favourites have won 4 times and been unplaced 6 times in the last 10 runnings (1613001105).
- Trainer Records (w-pl-r): Alan King 2-0-5 (won two of the last ten runnings), Fergal O’Brien 1-5-17, Dan Skelton 1-0-4, Lucy Wadham 0-2-4.
Assessment of Top Two
- Edith Pelham:
- Strengths: Unbeaten (2/2) with strong form. Expected to suit the stiff track.
- Weaknesses: Must improve on form to challenge top-rated rivals in this field.
- Suitability: Acts on good to soft ground.
- Katios Queen (IRE):
- Strengths: Winning debut suggests potential for further improvement. Represents a top yard.
- Weaknesses: Needs to step up significantly on her debut RPR in this Listed contest.
- Suitability: Handles good to soft conditions.
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