Navan; Analysis of the Timewise top two ranked + The Spotlight Verdicts + Race Stats

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This response provides the requested analysis for all Navan races in chronological order, drawing exclusively from the provided source material.

11.47 Bar One Racing ‘Play Casino Online’ 3-Y-O Maiden Hurdle (2m)

TimeWise Master Top Two Rated:

  1. Barbizon (IRE)
  2. Ben Hur (IRE)
HorseRecent Form & Comments
Barbizon (IRE)Smart on the Flat for John Joseph Murphy, winning twice this year at 1m–9.5f (including on yielding-soft) and achieving a rating of 101. An interesting hurdling debutant, though Jack Kennedy prefers stablemate Wackestone. The horse is tongue tied.
Ben Hur (IRE)Has modest form in three runs on the Flat (7f–1m4f), rated 72. Ran on well on heavy at the Curragh last time (1m4f), suggesting stamina is not in question, and could go well on hurdling debut.

Spotlight Verdict:
A tricky race to assess. The fact that Jack Kennedy prefers Wackestone over Barbizon looks significant, and the form of Wackestone’s Ballinrobe fourth was boosted recently. The hurdling debutants Glen To Glen and Ben Hur are respected, but SEARCOG jumped well and stayed on nicely on her hurdling debut at Fairyhouse 12 days ago and she may be able to get her head in front on this stiffer track.

Race Statistics:

  • Age Groups: 3yo 2-2-14.
  • Fate of Favourites: 11.
  • Trainer Records (W-Pl-R): Gordon Elliott 1-1-4, Gavin Cromwell 1-0-2, Joseph Patrick O’Brien 0-1-1.

Assessment of the Top Two:

  • Barbizon (IRE):
    • Strengths/Suitability: Has the highest Flat rating (101) among these two and won on yielding-soft ground on the Flat. Represents the successful Gordon Elliott yard, which has a 1-1-4 record in this race type.
    • Weaknesses: This is a hurdles debut. Jockey preference (Jack Kennedy riding Wackestone) raises a slight question.
  • Ben Hur (IRE):
    • Strengths/Suitability: Stamina is confirmed not to be an issue, having run well on heavy ground recently.
    • Weaknesses: Modest Flat rating (72). This is his hurdling debut.

12.17 Irish Stallion Farms EBF Mares Maiden Hurdle (2m)

TimeWise Master Top Two Rated:

  1. Salsinha (FR)
  2. Switch From Diesel (IRE)
HorseRecent Form & Comments
Salsinha (FR)Won her bumper at Cork comfortably (on good ground). Held in high regard by her top team and must be respected.
Switch From Diesel (IRE)Accrued plenty of experience in bumpers, winning three times and twice finishing runner-up in Graded events. Confirmed recent wellbeing with a Flat win at the Curragh (1m4f maiden) on heavy ground. If she takes hurdles in her stride, she could be very smart.

Spotlight Verdict:
This is highly likely to be won by one of the hurdling newcomers. SWITCH FROM DIESEL was kept to bumpers for a long time but she performed to a high level and her recent Flat win on heavy ground bodes well. Cork bumper winner Salsinha seems held in some regard. Testing conditions also bring Cool Native and Saveforarainyday into the picture.

Race Statistics:

  • Age Groups: 4yo 0-1-19, 5yo 1-3-18, 6yo 1-0-3.
  • Fate of Favourites: 12.
  • Trainer Records (W-Pl-R): Henry De Bromhead 1-0-3, Gavin Cromwell 0-1-2, Gordon Elliott 0-2-4, S R B Crawford 0-1-1.

Assessment of the Top Two:

  • Salsinha (FR):
    • Strengths/Suitability: A bumper winner who is well-regarded by her stable (Henry De Bromhead).
    • Weaknesses: Bumper win was on good ground; heavy ground here introduces an unknown factor. Hurdles debut.
  • Switch From Diesel (IRE):
    • Strengths/Suitability: High-class bumper form, including Graded placings. Proven fitness and ability to handle heavy ground via a recent Flat win. Potential to be “very smart”.
    • Weaknesses: Hurdles debut.

12.47 Gaeil Colmcille GAA Kells ‘Day At The Races’ Handicap Hurdle (2m)

TimeWise Master Top Two Rated:

  1. Cowper Hall (IRE)
  2. Harley Street (IRE)
HorseRecent Form & Comments
Cowper Hall (IRE)Was reeled in close to home when runner-up by 0.75l at Fairyhouse (2m, yielding) on his latest run. Will run well again off 2lb higher.
Harley Street (IRE)Is 0-12 over hurdles but posted his best run yet last month, finishing 1.75l third of 13 at Wexford (2m4f, yielding). Drops in trip but has run well on soft ground at this distance before. Wears cheekpieces alongside a tongue tie.

Spotlight Verdict:
An absolute minefield. Cowper Hall has to be considered after his fine Fairyhouse effort but this ground is an unknown. A tentative vote goes to HARLEY STREET who shaped nicely over 2m4f last time and he has run well at around this trip on soft. Marie’s March lacks a recent run but could figure if she’s ready to rock on her return.

Race Statistics:

  • Age Groups: 4yo 1-0-9, 5yo 1-1-11, 6yo 0-3-15, 7yo 0-2-5, 8yo 0-0-4, 12yo 0-0-1.
  • Fate of Favourites: 46.
  • Trainer Records (W-Pl-R): Ian Patrick Donoghue 1-3-4.

Assessment of the Top Two:

  • Cowper Hall (IRE):
    • Strengths/Suitability: Highly consistent recently, notably finishing a very close second at Fairyhouse.
    • Weaknesses: Testing ground is a query for him.
  • Harley Street (IRE):
    • Strengths/Suitability: Shaped nicely last time over 2m4f and has proven form on soft ground over this distance. New application of cheekpieces may spark further improvement. Trainer Ian Patrick Donoghue has a 1-3-4 record in this race type.
    • Weaknesses: Still seeking a first win over hurdles (0-12).

1.22 John Lynch Carpets & Flooring Monksfield Novice Hurdle (Grade 3) (2m 4f)

TimeWise Master Top Two Rated:

  1. Eclipse Chaser (IRE)
  2. Kalypso’Chance (FR)
HorseRecent Form & Comments
Eclipse Chaser (IRE)Was much-improved when second on his hurdles debut, building on that to win a 2m5f maiden on yielding ground at Navan in September. Getting the hang of things. He is the sole runner for Willie Mullins.
Kalypso’Chance (FR)A point-to-point winner who won his first two bumpers (including at Navan). Expected to make his mark hurdling this season. Suffered a costly initial reversal when beaten at odds of 1-5 at Down Royal, but Jack Kennedy sticks with him.

Spotlight Verdict:
Three who were scheduled to run in Saturday’s 2m Grade 3 now try their luck over 2m4f. It could pay to side with WALKS IN JUNE, a well-supported maiden winner at Limerick on hurdling debut. Eclipse Chaser is getting the hang of things and is the sole runner for Willie Mullins. Kalypso’chance has a few blots on his record, but Jack Kennedy sticks with him despite an odds-on defeat at Down Royal.

Race Statistics:

  • Age Groups: 5yo 9-10-42 dominates, followed by 4yo 1-2-10.
  • Fate of Favourites: 6114141211.
  • Trainer Records (W-Pl-R): Gordon Elliott 7-2-19, W P Mullins 1-1-4.

Assessment of the Top Two:

  • Eclipse Chaser (IRE):
    • Strengths/Suitability: Progressive form since hurdling debut, including a Navan win over a staying trip. Represents Willie Mullins, who has strong Grade 3 credentials.
    • Weaknesses: Previous bumper efforts were modest.
  • Kalypso’Chance (FR):
    • Strengths/Suitability: Proven bumper winner at this track. Retains the confidence of Jack Kennedy and Gordon Elliott (7-2-19 race record).
    • Weaknesses: Failed in Grade 1 bumpers. Dismal performance when beaten as 1-5 favourite on his hurdling debut.

1.57 Bar One Racing ‘Bet #10 Get #50 Sign Up Offer’ Tara Handicap Hurdle (2m 5f)

TimeWise Master Top Two Rated:

  1. Grimaud (FR)
  2. Kir (FR)
HorseRecent Form & Comments
Grimaud (FR)Won a Gowran maiden (2m, soft) in March. Has failed to show any progress in five starts since then. Needs to step up on handicap form to feature.
Kir (FR)Was running a big race when falling at the last on his sole point start. Looks progressive and stayed further than this when winning on handicap debut at Limerick.

Spotlight Verdict:
The fact that KIR stayed 3m when winning on his handicap debut at Limerick is a big positive given the stamina demands imposed by this track. Fighting Fit is well handicapped relative to his chase mark. Sa Fureur, second in this race last year, is also well handicapped. Waittillitellyou can run well when fresh and likes this track.

Race Statistics:

  • Age Groups: Dominated by 5yo (4-8-36), 6yo (0-5-35), 7yo (3-6-34), and 8yo (2-2-26) runners.
  • Fate of Favourites: 3122346530.
  • Trainer Records (W-Pl-R): Gordon Elliott 3-6-22, S R B Crawford 1-1-6, Dermot A McLoughlin 0-1-2, Paul Nolan 0-2-4, Ross O’Sullivan 0-1-5.

Assessment of the Top Two:

  • Grimaud (FR):
    • Strengths/Suitability: Won maiden on soft ground. Represents the prolific Gordon Elliott stable.
    • Weaknesses: Has not progressed since maiden win and needs a significant step up in handicap form.
  • Kir (FR):
    • Strengths/Suitability: Progressive and proven over staying trips (stayed 3m at Limerick), which is ideal for the stamina demands of Navan. Represents Henry De Bromhead, who has a 44% 14-day run-to-form percentage.
    • Weaknesses: Needs to prove himself in this stronger class of handicap.

2.32 Bar One Racing Troytown Handicap Chase (Grade 3) (3m)

TimeWise Master Top Two Rated:

  1. Favori De Champdou (FR)
  2. Quai De Bourbon (FR)
HorseRecent Form & Comments
Favori De Champdou (FR)A seven-time winner (3-11 in chases). Proved his staying ability with a third in the 3m3f Grand National Trial and won a 3m2f event in March. Struggled in the Irish Grand National after an early mistake. Ridden by Jack Kennedy.
Quai De Bourbon (FR)A 2m4f chase winner. Despite an indifferent round of jumping, he ran a fine effort when third in the Irish Grand National. Was third in the Martin Pipe in 2024. The sole Willie Mullins runner, commanding respect.

Spotlight Verdict:
Bearing in mind the similarity between this stiff left-handed track and Naas, ANSWER TO KAYF (nap) is put forward on the strength of a convincing Naas win last winter. Top-weight Quai De Bourbon commands respect on his Irish Grand National third. Gordon Elliott (superb record) and Gavin Cromwell have numbers on their side. Will The Wise and Aspurofthemoment are two with a big chance for Cromwell.

Race Statistics:

  • Age Groups: 7yo (3-12-68) and 6yo (2-5-28) dominate the entries.
  • Fate of Favourites: P4FP111526.
  • Trainer Records (W-Pl-R): Gordon Elliott 6-9-83, Noel Meade 1-2-12, Gavin Cromwell 0-4-9, P A Fahy 0-1-1.

Assessment of the Top Two:

  • Favori De Champdou (FR):
    • Strengths/Suitability: Highly experienced and proven staying chaser. Strong yard (Elliott, 6-9-83 record) with Jack Kennedy aboard.
    • Weaknesses: Struggled with jumping mistakes in major handicaps.
  • Quai De Bourbon (FR):
    • Strengths/Suitability: Excellent form when third in the Irish Grand National. High-class connections (Willie Mullins/Paul Townend).
    • Weaknesses: Chasing technique has been indifferent, having made bad mistakes, unseated, or been brought down in previous runs.

3.07 Race And Stay Irish EBF Beginners Chase (2m 4f 150y)

TimeWise Master Top Two Rated:

  1. Final Demand (IRE)
  2. Wingmen (IRE)
HorseRecent Form & Comments
Final Demand (IRE)Only defeat in four hurdle races came when outpaced over 2m5f at Cheltenham. Won Grade 1s at Leopardstown (2m6f, soft) and Punchestown (2m4f, yielding). Unquestionably one of the most exciting first-season chasers around, and this looks an ideal starting point.
Wingmen (IRE)Has won his maiden hurdle at Navan but went 0-5 afterwards, including a 12l defeat by Final Demand. Could be a better chaser and has schooled well. Should have some part to play in a regular hood.

Spotlight Verdict:
A few of these will pay their way over fences but in FINAL DEMAND they’re taking on one of the hottest properties around. He was imperious over hurdles and the sky looks the limit in this discipline. Karl Des Tourelles appeals as the best each-way alternative, ahead of Wingmen for whom fences could be the making.

Race Statistics:

  • Age Groups: 6yo 2-1-9, 8yo 0-0-1.
  • Fate of Favourites: 22.
  • Trainer Records (W-Pl-R): Gordon Elliott 2-0-4, W P Mullins 0-1-1.

Assessment of the Top Two:

  • Final Demand (IRE):
    • Strengths/Suitability: Grade 1 winner over hurdles and considered one of the most exciting first-season chasers. Willie Mullins has a 0-1-1 record in this race type.
    • Weaknesses: None apparent given the context; described as “imperious”.
  • Wingmen (IRE):
    • Strengths/Suitability: Potential to be a better chaser, having schooled well. Fences “could be the making” of him.
    • Weaknesses: Raced keenly over hurdles. Previously soundly beaten by Final Demand.

3.42 Coolmore N.H. Sires Hurricane Lane Irish EBF Mares INH Flat Race (Listed) (2m)

TimeWise Master Top Two Rated:

  1. Easter Bonnet (FR)
  2. Oldschool Outlaw (IRE)
HorseRecent Form & Comments
Easter Bonnet (FR)Preferred by Patrick Mullins, she won accordingly as the 4-7 favourite on debut at Punchestown (2m, good to yielding) last month. Has an obvious chance.
Oldschool Outlaw (IRE)Ran a lovely race when runner up on Rules’ debut at Leopardstown (2m, yielding) in March and was not disgraced in an Aintree Grade 2 mares’ bumper afterward. Her dam won on heavy ground and was fourth in this race in 2015.

Spotlight Verdict:
Willie Mullins is triple-handed here and while Patrick Mullins prefers the impressive Punchestown winner Easter Bonnet this ground is an unknown. Her stablemate SOME PRETENDER ran a respectable race on soft in this grade at Gowran last time and she might represent some value against the likely favourite. Churchfield Annie and Brosna Shine are also highly respected.

Race Statistics:

  • Age Groups: 4yo (5-13-54) and 5yo (4-5-39) are the most frequent runners.
  • Fate of Favourites: 1254101513.
  • Trainer Records (W-Pl-R): Gordon Elliott 2-4-15, W P Mullins 1-3-10, Emmet Mullins 1-0-2, Gavin Cromwell 1-0-3, S R B Crawford 0-2-6.

Assessment of the Top Two:

  • Easter Bonnet (FR):
    • Strengths/Suitability: Impressive winning debut, strongly supported, and preferred by Patrick Mullins. Represents Willie Mullins, who has a 1-3-10 record in this type of race.
    • Weaknesses: Heavy ground suitability is an unknown factor.
  • Oldschool Outlaw (IRE):
    • Strengths/Suitability: Consistent high-level form, placing at Leopardstown and performing well in a Grade 2. Pedigree suggests suitability for heavy ground (dam won on heavy). Trainer Gordon Elliott has a strong record (2-4-15).
    • Weaknesses: Lacks a recent run.

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