Warwick; Analysis of the Timewise top two rated + The Spotlight verdicts + Race stats

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This response details the Warwick races in chronological order, identifying the TimeWise Master Top Two rated horses, summarising their form, providing the Spotlight Verdict, Race Statistics, and assessing their chances based on the sources provided.


Warwick Races (Chronological Order)

12.55 Warwick Supports Our Farmers Novices’ Limited Handicap Chase (2m 54y)

RankHorseTimeWise Rating (Total)SP
1Mister Cessna (FR)Top Rated6-4
2Spirits BaySecond Rated11-8

Mister Cessna (FR)

  • TimeWise Master RPR: 129.
  • Recent Form & Comments: He was placed on his chasing debut in France last summer. Last term, he was 1-4 as a juvenile hurdler but faced stiff tasks. He made an immediate impact back over fences, readily beating four others at Uttoxeter (2m, good) last month, despite jumping slightly to his right.
  • Suitability/Strength: Up 5lb, but he is likely to have a good bit more to offer and gets a handy weight-for-age allowance.

Spirits Bay

  • TimeWise Master RPR: No Master RPR provided in race card data, but RPR is 126 (OR).
  • Recent Form & Comments: He achieved two wins during his novice hurdles campaign, including a handicap (2m, soft). He was 0-5 last season but ran well at the weights behind Constitution Hill at Cheltenham in January. He comfortably regained the winning thread on his reappearance at Newton Abbot (2m1f, good to soft) three weeks ago.
  • Suitability/Strength: Up 4lb, he is bred for fences and looks a player on his debut in this sphere.

Spotlight Verdict
Just the three but choosing between them isn’t easy. Spirits Bay got back on the scoresheet over hurdles last time and is bred for this game, while Mister Cessna (second choice) gets a handy weight-for-age allowance and has to be feared having won readily over fences last time. However, EXCELERO shaped encouragingly on his chase debut at Worcester last month and is selected to build on that.

Race Statistics

  • Age Groups: 6yo 1-1-4, 7yo 0-0-2, 9yo 0-0-1.
  • Fate of Favourites: Not available in provided data.
  • Trainer Records: Not available in provided data.

Assessment of Top Two Chances

  • Mister Cessna: Strength is his confirmed winning form over fences on his first attempt for the stable and the weight-for-age allowance. Suitability for softer ground is suggested by previous hurdle form.
  • Spirits Bay: Strength is his recent winning form over hurdles and his pedigree which suggests he should excel over fences. Weakness is the risk associated with a chasing debut, though he is highly respected.

1.25 pricedup.bet Conditional Jockeys’ Handicap Hurdle (2m 3f)

RankHorseTimeWise Rating (Total)SP
1OnewaywestTop Rated3-1
2Diamond Geezer (IRE)Second Rated5-2

Onewaywest

  • TimeWise Master RPR: 123.
  • Recent Form & Comments: An eight-race maiden who fell on his handicap debut in late 2023 when going easily. Last term, he had patchy form, including encouraging seconds at Windsor and Ffos Las (2m4f, good to soft).
  • Suitability/Strength: He ought to be up to this mark (OR 112) and is interesting on his reappearance.

Diamond Geezer (IRE)

  • TimeWise Master RPR: 123.
  • Recent Form & Comments: This low-mileage 6yo made a promising return when second at Worcester (good to soft) in September, before gaining his breakthrough win at Perth (2m4f, soft) five weeks later.
  • Suitability/Strength: He responded well to first-time cheekpieces in his win (retained today) and is a player up 6lb.

Spotlight Verdict
Sweet Magic (second choice), Oh My Johnny and Onewaywest are respected on their returns, while Diamond Geezer responded well to cheekpieces last time and should go well in his bid to double up. However, CODETALKER looks interesting on his handicap debut and the step up in trip can help him convert this opening mark.

Race Statistics

  • Age Groups: 3yo 0-0-1, 4yo 0-0-1, 5yo 3-3-12, 6yo 1-1-10, 7yo 1-2-7, 8yo 0-1-10, 9yo 0-0-1, 10yo 0-0-1.
  • Fate of Favourites: 53311.
  • Trainer Records: Philip Hobbs & Johnson White 1-0-1, Olly Murphy 0-1-6.

Assessment of Top Two Chances

  • Onewaywest: Strength is his competitive handicap mark (OR 112). Weakness is his status as an eight-race maiden and questions surrounding his fitness following a 227-day break.
  • Diamond Geezer: Strength is his recent win and the retention of first-time cheekpieces, suggesting continued form. Weakness is the 6lb weight rise following his victory.

2.00 PricedUp Novices’ Hurdle (2m 5f 5y)

RankHorseTimeWise Rating (Total)SP
1Dig Deep (IRE)Top Rated2-1
2Sallyville Lady (IRE)Second Rated2-1

Dig Deep (IRE)

  • TimeWise Master RPR: 122.
  • Recent Form & Comments: Bought for £120,000 after finishing second in an Irish point in March. He was a warm 15-2 shot when second again (behind a highly regarded sort) on his rules debut at Ffos Las (2m4f, soft) three weeks ago.
  • Suitability/Strength: Looks the part and is sure to make his presence felt.

Sallyville Lady (IRE)

  • TimeWise Master RPR: No Master RPR recorded.
  • Recent Form & Comments: An odds-on winner by 10l in an Irish mares’ maiden point (3m, good to yielding) last December on her only start in that sphere.
  • Suitability/Strength: She is a fascinating rules debutante for a top yard.

Spotlight Verdict
The market should be informative, with all but one of these making their rules debuts. DIG DEEP recorded an encouraging introduction when second at Ffos Las last month and can go one better. Sallyville Lady, Jackpot Cauveliere and Sogna In Grande, in that order, head the newcomers.

Race Statistics

  • Age Groups: 4yo 1-0-4, 5yo 1-3-11, 6yo 1-1-8.
  • Fate of Favourites: 311.
  • Trainer Records: Dan Skelton 0-1-2.

Assessment of Top Two Chances

  • Dig Deep: Strength is his impressive point form and the high quality of his rules debut run, suggesting ability to win quickly.
  • Sallyville Lady: Strength is her impressive point win and the reputation of her trainer (D. Skelton). Weakness is the uncertainty surrounding all newcomers entering rules races.

2.35 Hazelton Mountford Insurance Handicap Chase (2m 4f)

RankHorseTimeWise Rating (Total)SP
1ChuggyTop Rated9-4
2Another Folly (FR)Second Rated7-2

Chuggy

  • TimeWise Master RPR: 121.
  • Recent Form & Comments: This unexposed 5yo attracted support before staying on well to make a winning seasonal/chase debut at Uttoxeter (2m, good) last month. He still looked a touch raw that day.
  • Suitability/Strength: Should have a good bit more to offer, particularly over this longer trip; considered a big player.

Another Folly (FR)

  • TimeWise Master RPR: 120.
  • Recent Form & Comments: Got off the mark on his eighth attempt over fences when making all to beat ten others at Stratford (2m6f, good to soft) on his reappearance three weeks ago. He attracted support that day, and retained cheekpieces seem to be helping.
  • Suitability/Weakness: The drop back in trip is not certain to suit.

Spotlight Verdict
All but one of these are eligible for novice chases and with three making their debuts over fences the market could be informative. Another Folly (second choice) is likely to make this a good test in his bid to go back-to-back but that may suit CHUGGY, who appeals as the sort to progress again over this longer trip. Mavis Pike, well behind the selection on her reappearance, should get close this time.

Race Statistics

  • Age Groups: 5yo 1-0-1, 6yo 0-0-1, 7yo 0-0-1, 8yo 0-1-1, 9yo 0-0-2.
  • Fate of Favourites: Not available in provided data.
  • Trainer Records: Not available in provided data.

Assessment of Top Two Chances

  • Chuggy: Strength is his potential for progression over the longer trip and recent winning debut over fences.
  • Another Folly: Strength is his confirmed winning recent form, making all on reappearance. Weakness is the drop back in trip which may not suit his front-running style.

3.10 Denis O’Connell Memorial Handicap Hurdle (3m 1f 5y)

RankHorseTimeWise Rating (Total)SP
1ThankyourluckystarTop Rated5-2
2Kiss My FaceSecond Rated8-1

Thankyourluckystar

  • TimeWise Master RPR: 119.
  • Recent Form & Comments: Burst back to life with a 15l win at Worcester (2m7f, good) in May.
  • Suitability/Weakness: He is absent since May and is up 11lb, putting him on a clear career-high mark at the age of nine. There is also a slight query on this forecast soft ground.

Kiss My Face

  • TimeWise Master RPR: 120.
  • Recent Form & Comments: He is running well currently, following a Wetherby win (3m) in October with a solid third at Bangor (2m7f, also good) 12 days later.
  • Suitability/Strength: He has form on soft and is one to consider (OR 111).

Spotlight Verdict
Murphy’s Milan (second choice) has untapped potential and makes some appeal but it’s worth taking a chance on CATCH CATCHFIRE, who is similarly unexposed in this sphere and raised his game once the cheekpieces went on for handicap chases last winter. Thankyourluckystar couldn’t have scored much more easily when last seen in May, so it will be interesting to see what he makes of this inflated mark, while Flash In The Pan and Getaway Theatre also need considering.

Race Statistics

  • Age Groups: 6yo 1-0-1, 7yo 0-2-2, 8yo 0-0-3, 9yo 0-0-2.
  • Fate of Favourites: Not available in provided data.
  • Trainer Records: Olly Murphy 1-0-1.

Assessment of Top Two Chances

  • Thankyourluckystar: Strength is his last-start massive 15l win and retained partnership with Harry Skelton. Weakness includes the 11lb hike in the weights, the nine-month absence, and the query over the soft ground.
  • Kiss My Face: Strength is his strong recent form (win and place in last three runs) and proven ability to handle soft ground.

3.40 PricedUp Daily Sports Boosts Handicap Chase (2m 54y)

RankHorseTimeWise Rating (Total)SP
1KykorockTop Rated3-1
2Dromlac Jury (IRE)Second Rated3-1

Kykorock

  • TimeWise Master RPR: No Master RPR recorded.
  • Recent Form & Comments: Won a maiden point (2m4f, good to soft) in February 2024. Has achieved little in a bumper and three hurdle starts under rules.
  • Suitability/Strength: He is the type to do better now handicapping switched to fences.

Dromlac Jury (IRE)

  • TimeWise Master RPR: 109.
  • Recent Form & Comments: Won over hurdles (2m, soft) last March. She has run respectably in four of her five chase starts, including finishing third (from nine) at Worcester (2m, good) on her return last month.
  • Suitability/Strength: She is respected from the same mark (OR 97).

Spotlight Verdict
Most of these have some sort of question to answer. In the circumstances DROMLAC JURY (nap) looks the safest play, with Bobbi’s Beauty next best on the percentages. It wouldn’t be a big surprise if Kykorock found something now he’s handicapping switched to fences.

Race Statistics

  • Age Groups: 4yo 0-0-1, 5yo 1-0-2, 6yo 0-1-2, 8yo 0-0-1, 9yo 0-1-1, 12yo 0-0-1.
  • Fate of Favourites: Not available in provided data.
  • Trainer Records: Matt Sheppard 0-1-1.

Assessment of Top Two Chances

  • Kykorock: Strength lies in his unexposed nature and potential for improvement now entering handicap chasing for the top yard of D. Skelton. Weakness is his lack of proven ability under rules over jumps.
  • Dromlac Jury: Strength is her consistency in chase starts and her competitive mark, having run well on her seasonal return. Weakness is that the Spotlight Verdict suggests Bobbi’s Beauty might be a better value proposition on the percentages.

Chronological Review Summary

The Warwick card features several competitive races, particularly the novice and limited handicap chases, where unexposed horses transitioning from hurdles or points are rated highly.

In the 2.00, the top two rated horses, Dig Deep and Sallyville Lady, are highly anticipated rules newcomers, mirroring the unpredictability of a novice class race where market clues (and trainer/purchase price) are paramount.

In the 2.35, the preference for Chuggy is based on his potential for progression over a longer trip, making him a horse to watch closely.

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