The Winter Convergence: A Strategic Analysis of the National Hunt Calendar for November 22, 2025

Executive Preamble

The date of Saturday, November 22, 2025, represents a watershed moment in the British and Irish National Hunt calendar. It is the juncture where the latent potential of the autumn novice campaigns collides with the established hierarchy of the championship divisions. The sporting landscape is dominated by three distinct theatres of operation: the relentless, galloping tests of Haydock Park in Merseyside; the technical, speed-orientated demands of Ascot in Berkshire; and the burgeoning heavy-ground skirmishes at Punchestown in Ireland.

This report provides an exhaustive, forensic examination of the day’s proceedings. It synthesizes form data, pedigree analysis, trainer commentary, meteorological variables, and statistical trends to produce a definitive strategic guide. The narrative is driven by the convergence of several high-stakes storylines: the nascent rivalry for the British Gold Cup crown in the Betfair Chase; the cross-channel raiding parties targeting the Morgiana Hurdle; and the intricate handicap puzzles that serve as qualifiers for the spring festivals. With ITV Racing providing comprehensive broadcast coverage across the British venues and Racing TV covering the Irish angle, the scrutiny on connections—trainers, jockeys, and owners—is at its zenith.

The following analysis is structured geographically and chronologically, dissecting each meeting race-by-race before synthesizing the broader market trends and strategic implications for the remainder of the 2025/26 season.

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Section 1: Haydock Park – The Heavyweight Battleground

Haydock Park in late November is synonymous with the Betfair Chase, the first leg of the staying chase Triple Crown. However, the supporting card offers a rich tapestry of graduation chases, premier handicaps, and novice hurdles that often prove more informative for the future than the feature race itself.

1.1 Meteorological and Surface Analysis

The going report for Haydock Park is officially listed as “Good to Soft”, with potential variability towards “Soft” in places. The forecast predicts a cool day with temperatures ranging from -0.7°C to 4.9°C, sunny intervals, and a northerly wind of approximately 9.7 mph.   

• Strategic Implication: The lack of significant rainfall in the immediate lead-up suggests the ground will not be the grueling “heavy” mire often associated with this fixture. This subtly shifts the balance of power away from pure mud-larks (like Royale Pagaille) towards horses with a higher cruising speed (like Grey Dawning). The cool temperatures and northerly wind will ensure the ground retains moisture, preventing it from drying out completely to “Good,” maintaining a fair but testing surface.   

1.2 Race-by-Race Dissection

12:08 PM – The Opener: Handicap Hurdle (Class 3)

Distance: 2 miles approx.

The curtain-raiser at Haydock often features horses with aspirations for the spring festivals, running here to protect marks or gain experience.

Key Protagonists:

• Double Measure (Trainer: Dan Skelton | Jockey: Harry Skelton): This runner is a prime example of the Skelton team’s strategic placement. Dan Skelton notes in his blog that Double Measure “ran nicely in second on his hurdling debut” and is expected to “get involved” here. The Skelton yard often targets these early ITV undercards to set the tone for the afternoon.   
• Sticktotheplan (Trainer: Olly Murphy | Jockey: Sean Bowen): Carrying form figures of 821211, this horse arrives in peak condition. Olly Murphy and Sean Bowen are a formidable combination, with Bowen currently “motoring along” in the jockeys’ championship. The form string indicates a progressive profile, winning twice recently, suggesting he is ahead of the handicapper.   
• Diamond Hunter (Trainer: Chris Gordon | Jockey: Freddie Gordon): Form figures of 2P22-1 indicate a last-time-out winner who has found his rhythm. The Chris Gordon yard is adept at readying horses after a break, and the booking of Freddie Gordon claims valuable weight.   
• Jony R (Trainer: S.R.B. Crawford | Jockey: Sam Ewing): An Irish raider with form 0/37-1. His recent win suggests he has acclimatized or improved significantly. Irish raiders in UK handicaps at this time of year must always be respected due to the disparity in handicapping styles.   
• Masked Man (Trainer: Nigel & Willy Twiston-Davies | Jockey: J.J. Slevin): Unbeaten (11) and clearly talented. The Twiston-Davies team is known for striking early in the season. A horse with a “11” form line is a dangerous unknown quantity; he could be anything. The analysis suggests he won a Stowlin point-to-point by 12 lengths before scoring by the same margin on his hurdling bow at Chepstow, making him a “One to Follow”.   

Verdict: The clash between the progressive Sticktotheplan and the unexposed Masked Man defines this race. The data favors Masked Man’s raw potential over the exposed form of the others.

12:40 PM – Bet At Your Best With Betfair Handicap Chase (Class 3)

Distance: 2 miles 67 yards    

A handicap chase over the intermediate trip that demands slick jumping and the ability to travel.

The Field Analysis:

• Sunnyvilla (Trainer: James Moffatt): A course and distance winner (CD) who is 10 years old. While age is against him, his record at Haydock is a positive. Snippets indicate he is a 5/1 chance and has been tipped as an each-way value bet. His form figures of 13/12- suggest he runs well fresh.   
• Escapeandevade (Trainer: Harry Derham | Jockey: Harry Reed): Caught the eye when second at Worcester on his stable debut for Harry Derham. He has been raised 1lb for that effort but is entitled to strip fitter. Derham is a trainer with a growing reputation for improving horses switched from other yards.   
• David’s Well (Trainer: Chris Gordon | Jockey: Freddie Gordon): Arrives unbeaten over fences (11-), having won at Leicester and Chepstow. This unexposed profile in chase handicaps is statistically the most profitable angle to follow. He jumped “really well” in those victories.   
• Netywell (Trainer: Lucinda Russell): A consistent sort (72P-38) who may need the run or softer ground to be seen at his best.   
• Gentleman Bill (Trainer: Oliver Greenall & Josh Guerriero): Form figures of 1206-3 suggest consistency but perhaps a lack of a killer blow in this grade.   

Strategic Insight: David’s Well represents the “could be anything” profile. In handicap chases, unexposed horses with a 100% strike rate over fences are statistically superior to exposed veterans like Sunnyvilla, despite the latter’s course form.

1:15 PM – Betfair Racing Podcasts Handicap Hurdle (Class 2)

Distance: 2 miles 3 furlongs

This Class 2 event acts as a bridge between standard handicaps and Graded company.

Key Contenders:

• The Four Sixes (Trainer: Olly Murphy | Jockey: Sean Bowen): A fascinating tactical entry. He won a chase at Wetherby recently by nine lengths but reverts to hurdles here. Analysis suggests he “jumped his fences like hurdles,” implying that the lower obstacles might actually suit his low, slick technique better. This versatility, combined with race fitness, makes him a primary contender.   
• Kabral Du Mathan (Trainer: Dan Skelton | Jockey: Harry Skelton): Formerly with Paul Nicholls, now making his debut for Skelton. He has undergone wind surgery and has been off for eight months. The market often over-bets horses moving to “fashionable” yards like Skelton’s, but the wind surgery is a variable that can elicit dramatic improvement—or signal underlying issues.   
• Milldam (Trainer: Jamie Snowden): Mentioned as a danger if the ground is soft enough to bring his stamina into play.   

Verdict: The race fitness of The Four Sixes is a tangible asset compared to the theoretical improvement of Kabral Du Mathan.

1:50 PM – Betfair Exchange Graduation Chase (Class 2)

Distance: 2 miles 5½ furlongs    

This race is arguably the most significant of the undercard, serving as a designated trial for the King George VI Chase. Graduation chases allow high-class novices to compete against each other without the burden of top weight in a handicap or the penalty structure of a full Grade 1.

The Jukebox Man (Trainer: Ben Pauling | Jockey: Ben Jones)

• Status: The 8/11 Favorite.   
• Context: Runner-up in the Grade 1 Turners Novices’ Chase and winner of the Grade 1 Kauto Star Novices’ Chase. He has been off the track for 331 days due to injury.   
• Trainer Insight: Ben Pauling is unequivocally bullish. He states, “The Jukebox Man is in serious form… his main game is the King George”. Pauling explicitly chose this race over the Coral Gold Cup to avoid a hard race before Kempton. He notes a minor setback (“pus in the foot”) two weeks ago but confirms the horse has had a “proper blow” at Lambourn to rectify fitness.   
• Tactical Profile: A front-running or prominent racer with “electric speed on the course”. This tactical speed is his primary weapon against dour stayers.   

The Opposition:

• Iroko (Trainer: Oliver Greenall & Josh Guerriero): Rated 152. Fourth in the Grand National. A Grade 1 winning hurdler. He is a formidable opponent but his stamina-laden profile (National runner) suggests he might be vulnerable to The Jukebox Man’s turn of foot over this intermediate trip.   
• Knappers Hill (Trainer: Paul Nicholls | Jockey: Freddie Gingell): Returning from a massive layoff (700+ days/2 years). While a class act (Rated 146), the statistical probability of a horse winning a competitive chase after such an absence is low.   
• Butch (Trainer: Olly Murphy | Jockey: Sean Bowen): Rated 141. A solid horse but strictly on ratings, he has 10lbs to find with the principles.   

Conclusion: This race is a litmus test for The Jukebox Man. If he retains his ability post-injury, he should outclass this field. His aggressive jumping style is suited to Haydock’s fences.

2:25 PM – Betfair Stayers’ Handicap Hurdle (Premier Handicap)

Distance: 3 miles ½ furlong    

A Premier Handicap (formerly Grade 3) that is a war of attrition.

Trend Analysis:

• Weights: The trend in these races often favors those carrying between 10st 7lb and 11st 5lb, avoiding the “dead weight” of the top imposts.
• Age: Younger, improving stayers (6-7yo) often outperform exposed veterans.

The Field:

• Shoot First (Trainer: Charles Byrnes): A previous winner of this race. His entire season has likely been backward-engineered from this date. The Byrnes stable is legendary for target-training. He is 14/1, which might represent value given his specific preparation.   
• Jingko Blue (Trainer: Nicky Henderson): Reverting to hurdles after a chase campaign where he reached Grade 2 heights but unseated at Ascot. His mark of 145 is competitive if his confidence is restored.   
• Harbour Lake (Trainer: Alan King): A course and distance winner (CD). However, he is on a career-high mark (145), which makes life difficult in a Premier Handicap.   
• Navajo Indy (Tip): Tipped by Ben Linfoot at 9/1. This fits the profile of the “improver” essential for winning such competitive heats.   

3:00 PM – The Betfair Chase (Grade 1)

Distance: 3 miles 1½ furlongs

The feature event. A small but select field of five runners contests the first Grade 1 chase of the season.   

Runner-by-Runner Deep Dive:

Horse	Trainer	Jockey	Rating	Odds	Key Insight
Grey Dawning	Dan Skelton	Harry Skelton	166	5/6	The young pretender. 2nd last year. Targeted specifically.
Royale Pagaille	Venetia Williams	Charlie Deutsch	163	9/1	The defending champion (2x winner). Age 11. Loves Haydock.
Haiti Couleurs	Rebecca Curtis	Sean Bowen	154	7/2	Irish GN winner. Race fit (won hurdles prep).
Handstands	Ben Pauling	Ben Jones	155	15/2	Scilly Isles winner. Step up in class/trip.
Stellar Story	Gordon Elliott	Sam Ewing	154	9/1	Irish raider. Dour stayer. Brown Advisory 2nd.

Analysis of Dynamics:

1. The Grey Dawning Ascendancy: Dan Skelton believes his horse was unlucky last year (stumbling at the last). At 8 years old, he is in the prime window for staying chasers (9 of last 12 winners aged 7-9 ). His rating of 166 sets the standard. Skelton’s blog confirms he is “ready” and this is a primary target, not a prep.   
2. The Royale Pagaille Paradox: Venetia Williams has a phenomenal record in November (approx. 23% strike rate ). Royale Pagaille is a Haydock specialist. However, history is against 11-year-olds in Grade 1 chases. The market drift to 9/1 suggests punters fear the ground isn’t soft enough to slow the others down.   
3. The Threat of Haiti Couleurs: Rebecca Curtis has pulled off a coup by getting this horse fit with a hurdles win at Newbury. 9 of the last 12 winners had a prep run or were beaten last time out. He fits the “race fitness” trend perfectly. His rating (154) is lower, but staying chasers often improve significantly when tested over extreme trips.   
4. Handstands & Stellar Story: Both are talented but look held on ratings. Pauling admits Handstands would be “lost” on heavy ground against elite opposition but hopes the Good to Soft surface gives his speed a chance.   

Prediction: Grey Dawning to win. The combination of age, rating, and ground suitability makes him the logical choice to dethrone the aging King of Haydock, Royale Pagaille.

3:35 PM – Best Odds On The Betfair Exchange Handicap Chase (Class 2)

Distance: 3 miles approx.

A competitive handicap chase to close the card.

Key Runners & Market Movers:

• Shomen Uchi (Trainer: Sam Thomas | Jockey: Charlie Deutsch): The 4/1 favorite. Form figures 216X2X1X1X suggest a horse that is lightly raced and improving. Sam Thomas is excellent at placing chasers.   
• Major Fortune (Trainer: Dan Skelton | Jockey: Harry Skelton): 7/1. Form 16604263X4. A consistent type who will likely be ridden to pick up pieces.   
• Saladins Son (Trainer: Anthony Honeyball): 13/2. Honeyball’s horses are often strong stayers.   
• Masked Man: Correction – Masked Man is listed in the 12:08 Hurdle analysis in snippets, but “Masked Man” name appears in snippet  under “Top Tip: Masked Man (5)” for the 12:08. Snippet  lists “Shomen Uchi” for the 3:35.   

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Section 2: Ascot – The Royal Stage

Ascot provides a contrast to Haydock; a right-handed, undulating track that rewards speed and rhythm. The going is “Good”, with “Good to Soft” in places. This places a premium on horses that can travel easily on top of the ground.   

2.1 Race-by-Race Dissection

12:25 PM – Restorations UK Novices’ Hurdle (Class 2)

Distance: 2 miles 5 furlongs 146 yards    

A small field of 6 runners often indicates a tactical affair.

• Blue Carpet (Trainer: Dan Skelton | Jockey: Tristan Durrell): A winner at Wetherby last time out. Skelton notes in his blog: “Blue Carpet has got a couple of pounds to find on ratings, but he is in good form… This trip is perfect for him”. The intention is to test him; if he falls short, he will go handicapping.   
• Percy Shelley (Trainer: James Owen): Rated 123. A consistent runner (112) who sets a fair standard.   
• Alan Bresil (Trainer: Nick Scholfield): Lightly raced (3-3), potentially unexposed.   
• Big Ticket (Trainer: Nigel & Willy Twiston-Davies): Form 12. Another from the Twiston-Davies production line that commands respect in novice events.   

12:55 PM – Mares’ Handicap Hurdle (Class 2)

Distance: 2 miles 7 furlongs approx.

• Notnowlinda (Trainer: Dan Skelton): Skelton comments: “We are going up to three miles around Ascot which is a good test for her… I don’t necessarily think she’s going to win but she should run nicely”. This somewhat lukewarm endorsement suggests she is an each-way play at best.   
• Presenting Doy (Trainer: Emma Lavelle | Jockey: Harry Cobden): Lavelle is optimistic: “She’s a genuine, staying mare… I think she’ll like the ground at Ascot”. The booking of Harry Cobden (23% strike rate for the yard) is a major signal of intent.   
• Spit Spot (Trainer: Lucinda Russell): Arrives on a hat-trick (11). In-form mares are dangerous to oppose.   

1:30 PM – Ladbrokes 1965 Chase (Grade 2)

Distance: 2 miles 5 furlongs 8 yards

The “Match of the Day”:

• Pic D’Orhy (Trainer: Paul Nicholls | Jockey: Harry Cobden): Seeking a hat-trick in this race (won 2023, 2024). Rating 162. Nicholls has a 24% strike rate with chasers at this trip at Ascot. He is the “banker” for many due to his reliability and course form (4/4 recently at Ascot).   
• Il Est Francais (Trainer: Tom George | Jockey: James Reveley): Rating 166. The French superstar. His talent is undeniable (Kauto Star winner), but his temperament is fragile—he “sulks” if not leading.   
• Gidleigh Park (Trainer: Harry Fry | Jockey: Bryan Carver): Rating 155. Harry Fry bypassed other options to run here. He is a massive horse with “loads of scope”. If the front two cut each other’s throats, he is the closer.   
• Jango Baie (Trainer: Nicky Henderson | Jockey: Nico de Boinville): Rating 158. Henderson has a profit of +£20.52 at Ascot with chasers. He has speed and could be the surprise package.   

Verdict: Pic D’Orhy is the rational choice. Ascot fences take jumping; Pic D’Orhy never misses a beat here. Il Est Francais is the wildcard.

2:05 PM – Handicap Chase (Class 2)

• Snipe (Trainer: Dan Skelton): Skelton says: “He’s been holding his own in some pretty competitive races… I would like to think that he will go well here”.   
• Our Power (Trainer: Sam Thomas): Fell in the Grand Sefton. Returns to the scene of his London Gold Cup win. A dangerous floater if none the worse for his fall.   
• The Newest One: Nigel Twiston-Davies runner, always respected in staying chases.

2:40 PM – Ladbrokes Ascot Hurdle (Grade 2)

Distance: 2 miles 3 furlongs 58 yards

• Crambo (Trainer: Fergal O’Brien): Rated 156. Grade 1 winner (Long Walk). The class act. Dropping in trip is a concern but his stamina is an asset in the finish.   
• Wodhooh (Trainer: Gordon Elliott): 4yo mare receiving huge weight (10-7 vs 11-6). Unbeaten juvenile. Gordon Elliott says: “It looks the ideal race for her to start her season”.   
• Golden Rule: 23 of 23 winners were priced 4/1 or less. Stick to the top of the market.   

3:15 PM – Castello Banfi Hurst Park Handicap Chase (Class 2)

Distance: 2 miles 1 furlong

• JPR One (Trainer: Joe Tizzard): 3rd in Haldon Gold Cup. Dropped 2lbs. Tipped widely to reverse form on better ground.   
• Boothill (Trainer: Harry Fry): Won this in 2023. Top weight (12-0). Fry says: “We couldn’t be more pleased with him… he’s got a great record around Ascot”.   
• Teddy Blue (Trainer: Harry Derham): Won over C&D recently. Up 4lbs. A threat.   

3:45 PM – Remix Dry Mortar Novices’ Handicap Hurdle (Class 4)

Distance: 3 miles approx.

A concluding handicap with a large field (18 runners entered in snippet, likely fewer declared).

• Absolutely Doyen (Trainer: Paul Nicholls): Form 2242-11. Won last two. A typical progressive Nicholls type for a Saturday finale.   
• Another Day Out (Trainer: M Keighley): Listed as a runner.   
• Top Guy (Trainer: Dan Skelton): Skelton will likely have this one ready.
• Analysis: In these large field handicaps at Ascot, look for horses ridden by claimers to offset weight or those from the “big yards” (Nicholls/Skelton/Henderson) who save their better handicapped horses for these TV-adjacent slots.

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Section 3: Punchestown – The Irish Resistance

Punchestown offers a stark contrast with “Soft to Heavy” ground conditions. This meeting is crucial for the Irish narrative leading to the Dublin Racing Festival.   

2:10 PM – Unibet Morgiana Hurdle (Grade 1)

• Lossiemouth (Trainer: Willie Mullins | Jockey: Paul Townend): The heavy odds-on favorite (2/5 or 4/11). She is the standout mare of her generation. This race is a stepping stone to the Champion Hurdle. Trends show Mullins has dominated this race since 2011.   
• Irancy (Trainer: Willie Mullins | Jockey: Mark Walsh): The B-string. Rated 157. A solid Grade 1 horse who keeps Lossiemouth honest.   
• Ndaawi (Trainer: Gordon Elliott): Rated 154. Unlikely to trouble the mare at level weights.   

Undercard Highlights

• 11:30 AM: Mont Star (Henry De Bromhead) is tipped for the maiden hurdle.   
• 1:05 PM (Florida Pearl Novice Chase): Rocky’s Diamond is a tip at 6/4.   
• 1:40 PM: Sa Majeste (Willie Mullins) is tipped at 7/1. A handicap chaser with massive potential.   
• 3:20 PM (Bumper): Rojuco Mac is tipped to beat Ballyfad.   

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Section 4: Statistical Intelligence & Market Dynamics

4.1 Trainer Trends to Exploit

• Venetia Williams in November: Her strike rate of ~23% is a statistical anomaly that must be respected. This makes Royale Pagaille (Haydock 3:00) and Martator (Ascot 3:15) dangerous despite any form flaws.   
• Paul Nicholls at Ascot: A 24% strike rate with chasers at Ascot is world-class. Blindly backing Nicholls’ chasers at this track (e.g., Pic D’Orhy, Sans Bruit) yields long-term profit.   

4.2 Market Movers

• Steamers:
  • The Jukebox Man (Haydock 1:50): 6/4 -> 8/11.
  • Lossiemouth (Punchestown 2:10): 4/6 -> 2/5.
• Drifters:
  • Royale Pagaille: 6/1 -> 9/1.
  • Boothill (Ascot 3:15): 9/1 (Drifting due to weight/absence).

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Conclusion

The convergence of elite racing at Haydock, Ascot, and Punchestown on November 22, 2025, offers a comprehensive examination of the current National Hunt landscape. The day is defined by the Betfair Chase, where Grey Dawning is poised to assert his dominance over the staying division. However, the supporting acts—specifically The Jukebox Man‘s return and Pic D’Orhy‘s Ascot defense—offer equally compelling narratives. Strategically, the “Skelton Saturday” plan appears robust, with key runners placed across all cards, while the “Mullins Monopoly” at Punchestown continues unabated.

For the professional observer, the day’s results will be instrumental in calibrating the ante-post markets for the King George VI Chase and the Cheltenham Festival, separating the genuine contenders from the winter pretenders.