Executive Summary
This document provides a comprehensive synthesis of expert analysis and quantitative ratings for the horse racing fixtures on November 25th, 2025, covering meetings at Hereford, Lingfield, Southwell, Tramore, and Wolverhampton. The analysis identifies key contenders, expert selections, and notable discrepancies between qualitative “Spotlight” verdicts and quantitative “Daily Ratings” data.
Primary Selections (NAPs):
The expert analysts have designated five “NAP” selections, representing their strongest bets of the day:
• Wistmans Prince (2:00 Hereford): Selected for showing “huge improvement” before falling with the race won. Notably, this horse is poorly rated by the quantitative model, creating a significant point of contrast.
• King Of Cong (1:15 Southwell): Chosen for a “big race” performance when finishing a clear second at Hexham. This pick also contradicts the quantitative ratings, which favor Queens Wish.
• Khmer (12:05 Tramore): Highlighted for having “leading form claims” after falling at the last while holding every chance on his seasonal reappearance.
• Rovinia (2:10 Lingfield): Tipped to follow up on a Kempton success, with the analyst believing the horse is open to “further progress.”
• Percy Jones (8:30 Wolverhampton): Selected to return to winning form, dropping back into a class where he was last successful over the same course and distance. This selection is strongly supported by the quantitative ratings.
Strong Consensus Selections:
In several races, a strong consensus emerges where the Spotlight expert’s top choice aligns with the highest-rated horse from the quantitative Daily Ratings. These instances represent a powerful confluence of analytical perspectives:
• Liam Mera Kai (12:50 Hereford)
• Ride Like A Girl (3:10 Hereford)
• Havana Sky (1:00 Lingfield)
• Knickerbocker (1:35 Lingfield)
• Nazare (1:50 Southwell)
• Captain Trigger (3:35 Southwell)
• Eden Storm (4:30 Wolverhampton)
• Morte Point (5:30 Wolverhampton)
• Woodhay Whisper (7:30 Wolverhampton)
• Leading Times (8:00 Wolverhampton)
Key Analytical Insights:
• Contrasting Methodologies: Significant divergences appear between the qualitative analysis and quantitative models, particularly with the NAPs Wistmans Prince (Hereford) and King Of Cong (Southwell). The analysts see potential and mitigating circumstances (a fall while leading, a return to form) that the raw data may not fully capture, presenting a key decision point.
• Form vs. Potential: The “Spotlight” verdicts frequently emphasize unexposed potential, recent wind surgeries, or significant jockey bookings, factors that add nuance to the historical performance data driving the quantitative ratings.
• Course Specialists: Several selections, such as Percy Jones (Wolverhampton) and Raqraaq (Lingfield), are highlighted for their strong records at specific tracks, an important variable in the expert analysis.
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Hereford Racecourse Analysis
12:15 Celebrating Venetias 30 Years In Training Novices’ Hurdle
• Spotlight Verdict: The selection is Marsiac, described as a “nice prospect” whose Aintree win form was given a “fair boost”. The “standout danger” is identified as Montemares, who won by 13 lengths on his debut despite showing inexperience.
• Key Contenders Analysis:
◦ Marsiac: Praised for digging deep to win at Aintree. His tendency to jump right suggests the Hereford track will suit. Carries a penalty but is considered “the one to beat.”
◦ Montemares: Won his course and distance debut by 13 lengths despite signs of greenness. Considered “open to plenty of improvement.”
◦ Justice Served: A debutant whose dam was a hurdle/chase winner. Warrants a “market check” despite a belated debut at age six.
◦ Noahsgreatrainbow: Showed “lots of initial bumper promise” but has yet to replicate that over hurdles. Handicaps are suggested to be more suitable.
• Quantitative Ratings Analysis: The ratings model favors Montemares, placing him at the top with a significant margin.
| Horse | Total Score | Odds |
| Montemares | 337 | 11/4 |
| Marsiac | 316 | 6/4 |
| Noahsgreatrainbow | 237 | 6/1 |
• Synthesis: There is a direct conflict between the two analyses. The Spotlight expert prefers Marsiac based on the quality of his previous win, while the quantitative model strongly favors Montemares, who is the Spotlight’s identified main danger.
12:50 2009 Grand National Winner Mon Mome Novices’ Hurdle
• Spotlight Verdict: The analyst views Irish point winner Four Springs as potentially “good enough” but prefers Liam Mera Kai as “the safer bet” following a bumper win and a “pleasing hurdling debut.”
• Key Contenders Analysis:
◦ Liam Mera Kai: Won an 11-runner Warwick bumper and “kept on for a fairly close third” on his hurdling debut. Expected to “be in the shake up.”
◦ Four Springs: “Bought for 82,000euros after strolling home in an Irish point.” The second-place horse from that race has since run well, suggesting the 4-year-old “could be useful.”
◦ Hey Buddy: Finished third over course and distance two weeks prior and “again looks vulnerable.”
◦ Land Of Punt: Looked set to win on his point debut before a fall. Dropped away “tamely” in a Chepstow maiden but “remains of interest.”
• Quantitative Ratings Analysis: The ratings model strongly aligns with the Spotlight verdict, placing Liam Mera Kai as the top-rated horse.
| Horse | Total Score | Odds |
| Liam Mera Kai | 282 | 9/4 |
| Hey Buddy | 246 | 11/2 |
| Kool Kid | 242 | 5/1 |
• Synthesis: Both expert analysis and quantitative data point to Liam Mera Kai as the most likely winner, creating a strong consensus.
1:25 Lady Rebecca Novices’ Handicap Chase
• Spotlight Verdict: While Electric Eddy is considered on his chase debut, the main selection is the “very lightly raced” The Pit Popsy. The analyst finds it “significant that she’s sent straight chasing for this first handicap.”
• Key Contenders Analysis:
◦ The Pit Popsy: Showed “promising fourths over hurdles” at Doncaster and Ascot. Connections are “evidently keen to get him over fences.”
◦ Electric Eddy: A “capable hurdler” making his chase debut. Has a “definite chance if he takes to fences,” especially with jockey Sam Twiston-Davies taking over.
◦ Sanitiser: A winning hurdler who “ran quite well” on his chase debut. Considered to have “possibilities.”
◦ L’Empire Vert: An inconsistent horse who won at Ludlow, though he “beat only one other finisher.” A 2lb rise is not considered harsh.
• Quantitative Ratings Analysis: The ratings model disagrees significantly with the Spotlight, rating The Pit Popsy seventh out of eight runners. It favors L’Empire Vert.
| Horse | Total Score | Odds |
| L’Empire Vert | 232 | 3/1 |
| Electric Eddy | 231 | 9/4 |
| Sanitiser | 225 | 4/1 |
| The Pit Popsy | 190 | 14/1 |
• Synthesis: A major divergence in opinion. The Spotlight selection, The Pit Popsy, is based on perceived intent from the stable and potential, whereas the quantitative data ranks the horse very low based on past performance.
2:00 Join The Hereford Racing Club 2026 Handicap Hurdle
• Spotlight Verdict (NAP): The day’s NAP selection is Wistmans Prince. The analyst notes the horse “was in the process of showing huge improvement when falling here last time with the race in the bag” and can “defy this 8lb higher mark.” The most feared danger is Recoded.
• Key Contenders Analysis:
◦ Wistmans Prince: Had shown “precious little” before his last race, where he was “well clear when coming down at the last.” Despite an 8lb rise, the analyst believes he “might still be well treated.”
◦ Recoded: Ran “well for a long way at Warwick” after a year off and wind surgery. The analyst suggests “he may have needed that” run.
◦ Keep On Cobbling: Won on handicap debut at Sedgefield. The 6lb rise is not considered “the end of the world for one so lightly raced.”
◦ The Secret Pearl: Only 3lb higher than for a narrow win in April. Considered an “each-way contender.”
• Quantitative Ratings Analysis: The ratings model strongly contradicts the Spotlight’s NAP, placing Wistmans Prince 14th out of 16 runners. The top-rated horse is Keep On Cobbling.
| Horse | Total Score | Odds |
| Keep On Cobbling | 294 | 4/1 |
| The Secret Pearl | 271 | 12/1 |
| Our Dylan | 257 | 15/2 |
| Wistmans Prince | 181 | 9/2 |
• Synthesis: This is the most significant conflict in the entire day’s analysis. The Spotlight analyst has made Wistmans Prince their best bet based on the visual evidence of a single, unfinished race, while the quantitative data sees no evidence of such ability.
2:35 Teeton Mill Handicap Chase
• Spotlight Verdict: In an open race, the selection is Concetto. The reasoning is that if he “can get into the same rhythm up front as when overhauled only late on… at Ludlow then he could be tough to catch.” Copshill Lad is the most feared.
• Key Contenders Analysis:
◦ Concetto: Has a record of 4-20 over fences and was “so nearly” a winner last time when “caught close home after making nearly all.” Runs off the same mark.
◦ Copshill Lad: There was “plenty to like about how he stuck to his guns for a 3l success on chase debut over C&D.” The handicapper raised him only 2lb.
◦ The Long Point: “The ability is there if he behaves himself.” Has been unruly in the preliminaries.
◦ Buckna: Disappointing on chasing debut due to jumping. A “steadier pace over this longer trip” might help.
• Quantitative Ratings Analysis: The ratings favor the horse the Spotlight identified as the main danger, Copshill Lad, by a large margin.
| Horse | Total Score | Odds |
| Copshill Lad | 310 | 13/8 |
| Mahler Moon | 261 | 5/1 |
| Buckna | 246 | 8/1 |
| Concetto | 234 | 5/1 |
• Synthesis: The expert and the model disagree on the winner but agree on the strength of Copshill Lad, who is the top-rated horse and the Spotlight’s main danger.
3:10 Aramstone Mares’ Handicap Hurdle
• Spotlight Verdict: The selection is Ride Like A Girl, who “still has considerable scope to progress” despite a short-odds defeat last time. The refitted hood is expected to help her settle. Granny Hawkins is the second choice.
• Key Contenders Analysis:
◦ Ride Like A Girl: A bumper winner who “kept on well for third on hurdling debut.” Raced too freely when a favorite last month but remains “one to be interested in.”
◦ Granny Hawkins: Placed in three of four handicaps and is a “big player if still in same form after four-month break.”
◦ Fay Ce Que Voudras: A course and distance winner who reverts to hurdles on a “good mark.” Considered “dangerous if refreshed by her break.”
◦ Sain Et Sauf: Hasn’t been with trainer Fergal O’Brien long and “may yet come good.”
• Quantitative Ratings Analysis: The ratings strongly support the Spotlight’s selection, placing Ride Like A Girl at the top of the list.
| Horse | Total Score | Odds |
| Ride Like A Girl | 285 | 3/1 |
| Granny Hawkins | 241 | 9/4 |
| Fay Ce Que Voudras | 211 | 7/1 |
• Synthesis: A strong consensus between the expert analysis and the quantitative model, both identifying Ride Like A Girl as the horse to beat.
3:45 Wye Valley Group Open National Hunt Flat Race
• Spotlight Verdict: The analyst states that Sassipants “looks a particularly strong contender among the runners who already have bumper experience.” Indulto Rouge is a “potentially useful recruit” and Ma Wang Des Bois is the “pick of the newcomers.”
• Key Contenders Analysis:
◦ Sassipants: Has a “useful pedigree and represents major yard.” Showed promise with a fourth-place finish at Uttoxeter and is “very likely to progress.”
◦ Indulto Rouge: “Easily justified favouritism in Irish point… going clear from two out and ending up 18l ahead.”
◦ Ma Wang Des Bois: Given a “good review by trainer in Stable Tour this month.” A “newcomer to note.”
◦ Mr Jukebox: Ran “encouragingly at Uttoxeter,” recovering from losing his place to finish third. “Open to progress.”
• Quantitative Ratings Analysis: The ratings favor horses with race experience, placing Mr Jukebox at the top, ahead of the Spotlight’s selection.
| Horse | Total Score | Odds |
| Mr Jukebox | 240 | 8/1 |
| King Berry | 232 | 25/1 |
| Western Cross | 227 | 7/1 |
| Sassipants | 211 | 4/1 |
• Synthesis: While the Spotlight analyst favors the potential of Sassipants, the ratings model gives a slight edge to Mr Jukebox based on his promising debut run.
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Lingfield Racecourse Analysis (AW)
11:00 Read Meg Nicholls’ Blog At betmgm.co.uk Nursery Handicap
• Spotlight Verdict: While Guernsey Angel‘s form is noted as being “well advertised,” the selection is Corniche Girl. The analyst believes her “latest Chelmsford second appeals as solid form” and she looked quick enough to handle the drop back in trip.
• Key Contenders Analysis:
◦ Corniche Girl: Latest second place was a “solid run” behind an impressive winner. Needs more back at 5f, but “it’s not out of the question.”
◦ Guernsey Angel: Won on her nursery debut and the form has held up well. A 5lb rise is unlikely to be beyond her, but she has the “widest draw.”
◦ Solar Invincible: Still has an “air of unfinished business about him.” Gets cheekpieces and a 7lb claim.
• Quantitative Ratings Analysis: The ratings model disagrees with the Spotlight, favoring Canyouhearthedrums and Guernsey Angel over the expert’s pick.
| Horse | Total Score | Odds |
| Canyouhearthedrums | 264 | 4/1 |
| Guernsey Angel | 256 | 7/2 |
| Mwaki | 245 | 9/2 |
| Corniche Girl | 225 | 6/1 |
• Synthesis: A clear difference of opinion. The ratings favor the proven form of Canyouhearthedrums, while the analyst sees more value and potential in Corniche Girl despite a lower rating.
11:30 Bet £10 Get £40 With BetMGM EBF Novice Stakes
• Spotlight Verdict: The selection is Starlight Sami. The analyst notes that the horse “shaped well amidst inexperience twice in races won by good horses” and should find this race “less taxing.” Master Of Shanghai is respected but may be vulnerable to the selection.
• Key Contenders Analysis:
◦ Starlight Sami: Placed in two novice events won by good horses. Considered “open to improvement” and is in “calmer waters” on his return.
◦ Master Of Shanghai: “Stayed on strongly” to win on debut. Has to concede a 7lb penalty but “looks promising.”
◦ Nebbia: Has shown ability over multiple trips. The manner of her last run suggested 6f “might be optimal.”
• Quantitative Ratings Analysis: The ratings favor the debut winner, Master Of Shanghai, by a significant margin.
| Horse | Total Score | Odds |
| Master Of Shanghai | 278 | 13/8 |
| Nebbia | 240 | 2/1 |
| Starlight Sami | 225 | 7/2 |
• Synthesis: The Spotlight analyst is banking on the class drop and potential of Starlight Sami to overcome the proven winning form of the top-rated Master Of Shanghai.
12:00 Midnite: Built For 2025 Not 2005 Handicap (Div I)
• Spotlight Verdict: The selection is Arth’s Gold, who has “greater upside” than the other main contenders and was “unlucky not to be a lot closer on his handicap debut.” Al Rufaa is the second choice.
• Key Contenders Analysis:
◦ Arth’s Gold: Was only beaten 2.5 lengths on handicap debut “despite a troubled run.” Is thought to be on a “favourable mark.”
◦ Al Rufaa: On a long losing run but has been runner-up twice, last time “clear of the third.”
◦ Wyld Bill: Has won three of his last six but endured a wide trip last time as a beaten favorite.
• Quantitative Ratings Analysis: The model prefers the recent consistent form of Al Rufaa, placing him comfortably at the top.
| Horse | Total Score | Odds |
| Al Rufaa | 282 | 7/4 |
| Annexation | 263 | 100/30 |
| Baikal | 253 | 12/1 |
| Arth’s Gold | 206 | 10/1 |
• Synthesis: The analyst is looking for untapped potential in Arth’s Gold, who is rated poorly by the model. The data-driven approach favors the reliable, albeit non-winning, recent form of Al Rufaa.
12:30 Midnite: Built For 2025 Not 2005 Handicap (Div II)
• Spotlight Verdict: The selection is Eupator, who “could well confirm the promise of his penultimate effort and get off the mark” now dropping back in distance. Connie Moon is the second pick.
• Key Contenders Analysis:
◦ Eupator: A maiden who was a good second at Wolverhampton before fading at Southwell. “May benefit from this drop back in trip.”
◦ Connie Moon: A maiden who “has moved in the right direction in handicaps.” “Interesting off same mark.”
◦ Charlie’s Choice: A five-time AW scorer who is “6lb below last winning mark” and has a “good chance provided he’s back to form.”
• Quantitative Ratings Analysis: The ratings place Orbaan and Oj Lifestyle at the top, with the Spotlight selection, Eupator, ranked lower.
| Horse | Total Score | Odds |
| Orbaan | 255 | 11/2 |
| Oj Lifestyle | 250 | 11/8 |
| Charlies Choice | 245 | 14/1 |
| Eupator | 236 | 7/1 |
• Synthesis: Another case of the analyst favoring a horse with perceived upside (Eupator) over those with more established, if unspectacular, form that the ratings model prefers.
1:00 Midnite Are Upping The Betting Game Handicap
• Spotlight Verdict: The selection is Havana Sky. The analyst notes the horse fought out a finish with Mart over C&D last month and may do so again, but gives the vote to Havana Sky due to the return of jockey Rossa Ryan, who was aboard for his last two wins.
• Key Contenders Analysis:
◦ Havana Sky: Has seven AW wins in the last 12 months. Ran a close third last time despite being “tight for room.” Jockey Rossa Ryan returns. “Leading claims.”
◦ Zoulu Warrior: A “still improving” 3-year-old who has been a close second in his last two starts. “Needs taking seriously.”
◦ Mart: Has a good record at Lingfield and was only a neck behind Havana Sky here last month.
• Quantitative Ratings Analysis: The model is in full agreement with the Spotlight, ranking Havana Sky as the top horse.
| Horse | Total Score | Odds |
| Havana Sky | 273 | 5/1 |
| Danger Alert | 247 | 10/1 |
| Zoulu Warrior | 244 | 7/2 |
• Synthesis: Strong consensus on Havana Sky, who is both the expert’s choice and the top-rated horse, making him a standout contender.
1:35 Best Odds Guaranteed At BetMGM Handicap
• Spotlight Verdict: The selection is the “unexposed 3yo” Knickerbocker, who has “run well in her two handicap starts” and can “defy a small rise for last month’s Southwell success.”
• Key Contenders Analysis:
◦ Knickerbocker: Showed “improved efforts since handicapping,” finishing second before winning a 0-75 race. A 3lb rise “shouldn’t prevent another good run.”
◦ Port Road: A “reliable operator” who could go well back down in class.
◦ Just Typical: Has six wins in the last 12 months and “could resume his progress back on AW.”
• Quantitative Ratings Analysis: The ratings are in agreement, placing Knickerbocker at the top of the list.
| Horse | Total Score | Odds |
| Knickerbocker | 267 | 9/2 |
| Simply Blue | 261 | 8/1 |
| Mcted | 257 | 5/1 |
• Synthesis: Another strong consensus pick, with both the analyst and the data identifying Knickerbocker as the most likely winner due to progressive form.
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• Spotlight Verdict (NAP): The selection is Rovinia. The analyst notes the horse is “open to further progress at this trip” and is taken “to follow up her Kempton success.” Holy Fire is the second choice.
• Key Contenders Analysis:
◦ Rovinia: “Proving suited by the step up to 7f” when opening her account last time. “May well build on that success.”
◦ Holy Fire: Well treated on best form and “last two efforts suggest her turn is near.” Met traffic issues last time.
◦ Ten Club: Gained “compensation” for a previous unlucky run by winning over C&D last time. “Major contender.”
• Quantitative Ratings Analysis: The ratings model disagrees with the NAP, favoring Harry Brown and Holy Fire.
| Horse | Total Score | Odds |
| Harry Brown | 264 | 6/1 |
| Holy Fire | 246 | 6/1 |
| Ten Club | 242 | 4/1 |
| Rovinia | 232 | 8/1 |
• Synthesis: A notable disagreement on a NAP selection. The analyst sees significant potential for improvement in Rovinia, while the data model leans towards the more proven, if less exciting, form of Harry Brown and Holy Fire.
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Southwell Racecourse Analysis
12:40 Grace And Dotty Country Clothing Handicap Chase
• Spotlight Verdict: The suggestion is Onewayortother. The analyst notes the horse had his “margin of defeat significantly magnified by a bad jumping error” last time out and has “slipped to a good mark.” The booking of Sean Bowen for Ceolwulf is noted as “eyecatching.”
• Key Contenders Analysis:
◦ Onewayortother: Now 6lb lower than when placed in this race a year ago. A “likely contender.”
◦ Ceolwulf: Won at Warwick in March. Absent since April, but Sean Bowen’s booking suggests he will be fit.
◦ Rehill Relic: Made an “encouraging seasonal/chase debut” and “can feature here if that recent outing brought him on.”
• Quantitative Ratings Analysis: The model prefers Ceolwulf by a reasonable margin. The Spotlight’s pick is not rated.
| Horse | Total Score | Odds |
| Ceolwulf | 242 | 3/1 |
| Rehill Relic | 232 | 6/1 |
| Valence D’Aumont | 228 | 4/1 |
• Synthesis: The Spotlight analyst is looking for a return to form from Onewayortother based on a favorable handicap mark, a horse for which there is no rating data. The model prefers the claims of Ceolwulf.
1:15 At The Races App Expert Tips Novices’ Handicap Chase
• Spotlight Verdict (NAP): The day’s NAP is King Of Cong. The horse “responded well to the addition of cheekpieces and ran very much as though his turn is near at Hexham recently.” Frankie Faulkner is also shortlisted.
• Key Contenders Analysis:
◦ King Of Cong: After being disappointing, “ran big race when clear second at Hexham.” Only 3lb higher here. “Obvious contender.”
◦ Frankie Faulkner: Returned from a long absence with a “clear second” at Ffos Las. “Remains well handicapped on older form.”
◦ Queens Wish: An Irish point winner who “looks worth a crack at 3m under rules.”
• Quantitative Ratings Analysis: The ratings model strongly disagrees with the NAP selection, rating King Of Cong fourth out of seven. The top-rated horse is Queens Wish.
| Horse | Total Score | Odds |
| Queens Wish | 245 | 6/1 |
| Luminaries | 211 | 6/1 |
| Frankie Faulkner | 210 | 3/1 |
| King Of Cong | 206 | 9/4 |
• Synthesis: A significant contradiction on a NAP selection. The analyst is confident that the addition of cheekpieces has transformed King Of Cong, a factor the historical data does not fully reflect. The model prefers the consistency of Queens Wish.
1:50 Join Southwell Golf Club Novices’ Handicap Hurdle
• Spotlight Verdict: The selection is Nazare, who “finished well to score on his handicap debut” and “could still be on a good mark after a 5lb rise.” Moab is not opposed lightly.
• Key Contenders Analysis:
◦ Nazare: “Recovered well from last-flight jumping error to make winning handicap debut.” “Probably still has more to offer.”
◦ Surrey Lord: Followed up a Ffos Las win with a victory at Kempton yesterday. “Escapes a penalty and has to be feared.”
◦ Moab: Scored on the Flat and was a good second on his hurdle return. “Could have untapped potential over the new trip.”
• Quantitative Ratings Analysis: The model strongly agrees with the Spotlight verdict, placing Nazare at the top of the ratings.
| Horse | Total Score | Odds |
| Nazare | 291 | 5/2 |
| Havefunontherun | 280 | 5/1 |
| Surrey Lord | 256 | 11/4 |
• Synthesis: A clear consensus between the expert and the data, both identifying Nazare as the one to beat based on a promising and progressive profile.
2:25 Golf And Gallop Maiden Hurdle
• Spotlight Verdict: The selection is Next Twist. The analyst notes that despite having 5 lengths to find with Precious Metal on their last run, jockey Sean Bowen had trouble settling the horse, who then made “eyecatching headway.” If the first-time hood helps, “he can take a big step forward.”
• Key Contenders Analysis:
◦ Next Twist: “Made good headway from the rear” on hurdle debut. Can do better if the hood helps him settle.
◦ Precious Metal: Won a Listed bumper and “probably bumped into a useful rival” when second on hurdle debut. “Leading contender.”
◦ Media Mogul: A fair Flat racer who made a “very encouraging” hurdle debut when fourth. Has “each-way claims at least.”
• Quantitative Ratings Analysis: The model heavily favors the proven class of Precious Metal, who is rated significantly higher than the rest of the field.
| Horse | Total Score | Odds |
| Precious Metal | 299 | 2/1 |
| Media Mogul | 259 | 9/4 |
| Next Twist | 250 | 5/2 |
• Synthesis: The Spotlight analyst sees significant potential for improvement in Next Twist, while the quantitative ratings are firmly in the camp of the established class horse, Precious Metal.
3:00 Sky Sports Racing Virgin 519 Novices’ Limited Handicap Hurdle
• Spotlight Verdict: In a competitive race, the suggestion is Secret Vino. The analyst notes the horse “kept on well for fourth behind a subsequent Cheltenham winner on last month’s handicap debut” and “could quite plausibly still have potential.”
• Key Contenders Analysis:
◦ Secret Vino: Outran 50-1 odds on handicap debut. “Might be the answer.”
◦ Little Venice: Runner-up on last two appearances, losing by just a nose last time. “Respected.”
◦ Platenium: Won at Uttoxeter and ran at least as well when third at Newcastle. “Likely contender.”
• Quantitative Ratings Analysis: The ratings disagree, placing One Million Dreams at the top. The Spotlight pick, Secret Vino, is ranked fifth.
| Horse | Total Score | Odds |
| One Million Dreams | 249 | 6/1 |
| Little Venice | 234 | 9/4 |
| Johnny Boom | 224 | 6/1 |
| Secret Vino | 219 | 11/2 |
• Synthesis: The analyst sees hidden potential in the form of Secret Vino’s last run, while the data favors the more straightforward claims of One Million Dreams and Little Venice.
3:35 Free Tips Daily On attheraces.com Conditional Jockeys’ Handicap Hurdle
• Spotlight Verdict: The verdict states this could be a “very good opportunity for Captain Trigger,” who has been suited by the step up in trip, finishing second in two recent handicaps.
• Key Contenders Analysis:
◦ Captain Trigger: “Evidently suited by step up to 3m1f” when second in his last two races. “Big player if he copes with the slower ground.”
◦ Ruler Legend: Not very reliable but “looks well worth a crack at 3m.”
• Quantitative Ratings Analysis: The model is in emphatic agreement, rating Captain Trigger significantly higher than any other horse in the race.
| Horse | Total Score | Odds |
| Captain Trigger | 234 | Evens |
| Maxs Champ | 197 | 16/1 |
| Zoffalee | 195 | 7/1 |
• Synthesis: An overwhelming consensus. Both the expert and the data model identify Captain Trigger as the standout contender, reflected in the very short odds of Evens.
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Tramore Racecourse Analysis
12:05 2026 Annual Badge At Tramore Racecourse Maiden Hurdle
• Spotlight Verdict (NAP): The selection is Khmer. He “was still bang in contention when falling at the last on his hurdling bow” and can “gain compensation if putting in a clear round.” Bon Viveur is respected due to his trainer’s strong record in the race.
• Key Contenders Analysis:
◦ Khmer: Has “leading form claims” after a promising hurdling debut that ended in a fall. Represents a yard that has been “amongst the winners recently.”
◦ Bon Viveur: From the top yard of W. Mullins, which has won five of the last ten renewals. Likely to “go well” on hurdling debut.
◦ How’s The Head: Showed “solid effort on hurdling debut” when third at Limerick. Has a “solid chance if he handles this softer ground.”
• Quantitative Ratings Analysis: Rating data for this race was not available in the provided sources.
12:35 New Years Day Discount Tickets Online Mares Maiden Hurdle
• Spotlight Verdict: The selection is Moody Girl, who “shaped with plenty of promise on testing ground on her hurdling debut.” With stamina in her pedigree, the step up in trip could suit. Mahon Falls is an “obvious chance” if she handles the ground.
• Key Contenders Analysis:
◦ Moody Girl: Made a “fine effort on hurdling debut” when third at Fairyhouse on soft-heavy ground.
◦ Mahon Falls: Placed in two of three starts for a top yard. Should stay the trip but “not certain to handle testing ground on breeding.”
◦ Barra Rua: A bumper winner who “ran a nice race on her hurdling debut.” Testing ground is an unknown.
• Quantitative Ratings Analysis: Rating data for this race was not available.
1:05 Book A Table For New Years Day Mares Handicap Hurdle
• Spotlight Verdict: The selection in this competitive race is Cousin Kate. She “handled heavy ground well when a clear second at Gowran recently and can go one better.” Great Bird is considered a big danger.
• Key Contenders Analysis:
◦ Cousin Kate: “Much improved to land a 2m maiden hurdle” and took another step forward when second in a handicap on heavy ground. “One for the shortlist.”
◦ Great Bird: An “improving mare probably still on a nice mark” who was held every chance when falling at the last in her most recent race.
◦ Miss Lia: A course and distance maiden winner who is a “player if handling these more testing conditions.”
• Quantitative Ratings Analysis: Rating data for this race was not available.
1:40 Karl Casey Outstanding Contribution Award 2025 Handicap Hurdle
• Spotlight Verdict: The analyst suggests there may be “more improvement to come from Head For Home following a big step forward last time at Punchestown.” Alright Darling warrants respect, and Pleasureofpressure could be a “real threat.”
• Key Contenders Analysis:
◦ Head For Home: Took a “big step forward” with first-time cheekpieces when second last time. A “likely major player” if handling the ground.
◦ Alright Darling: A “rather fortunate winner” at Thurles who ran a solid third since. “Handles heavy and remains under consideration.”
◦ Pleasureofpressure: Fairly consistent and the longer trip is expected to suit.
• Quantitative Ratings Analysis: Rating data for this race was not available.
2:15 2026 Group Package Deals Online Beginners Chase
• Spotlight Verdict: The selection is Aclass, who was runner-up to Jerisk Star over hurdles but “may be able to avenge that defeat in these conditions.” Mount Shenshan and Doyen Wolf complete the shortlist.
• Key Contenders Analysis:
◦ Aclass: Ran okay in defeat when third in a handicap chase recently.
◦ Jerisk Star: “Has the form to go well if putting in a clear round” but was weakening when unseating on his chase debut on heavy ground.
◦ Mount Shenshan: Ran well over course and distance on penultimate start; the step back up in trip and easier ground are positives.
• Quantitative Ratings Analysis: Rating data for this race was not available.
2:50 Ladies Cove Handicap Chase
• Spotlight Verdict: The verdict states that Toor Moon is “deserving of a turn after chasing home well-handicapped winners on his latest two starts.” Likable Chancer and Bondi Boy Blue have C&D form but ground concerns.
• Key Contenders Analysis:
◦ Toor Moon: A longstanding maiden who is “knocking on the door of late” with recent second-place finishes in handicap chases.
◦ Lake Chad: Three of four chase wins have come at Tramore. Now on a low mark and drops in grade, but the ground is a concern.
◦ Notimelikedpresent: The “dark horse” of the race, now entering handicaps.
• Quantitative Ratings Analysis: Rating data for this race was not available.
3:25 Irish Stallion Farms EBF Mares (Ladies Pro/Am) INH Flat Race
• Spotlight Verdict: The selection is Susie Lenglen, who was “a shade unlucky when a close third at Galway last month and she could make amends here if getting a clearer run.” How’s Ellie could improve for the softer ground.
• Key Contenders Analysis:
◦ Susie Lenglen: Has “leading form claims” after going close in a maiden hurdle and a bumper. Her dam won on soft-to-heavy ground.
◦ Torpille Dagrostis: Runner-up on her last two starts, including on soft-heavy ground at Naas. “Big chance.”
◦ How’s Ellie: Could do better in these conditions for a yard with a 39% strike-rate in bumpers at the track.
• Quantitative Ratings Analysis: Rating data for this race was not available.
——————————————————————————–
Wolverhampton Racecourse Analysis (AW)
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• Spotlight Verdict: The vote goes to Eden Storm. His two course wins were over 7f, but “he should be fine over today’s trip and is just 1lb higher than for his latest Newcastle success.” Sceptic and King Of Speed are also respected.
• Key Contenders Analysis:
◦ Eden Storm: A dual course winner who “narrowly ended a 19-race losing run at Newcastle” this month.
◦ Sceptic: Has “twice run well since returned to the AW,” including a win here over 7f in September. “High on list.”
◦ King Of Speed: Three of five wins have come over C&D and is just 1lb higher than his last win. “Worth considering.”
• Quantitative Ratings Analysis: The ratings model is in full agreement with the Spotlight, placing Eden Storm as the top-rated contender.
| Horse | Total Score | Odds |
| Eden Storm | 250 | 100/30 |
| Sceptic | 215 | 4/1 |
| Francesi | 214 | 9/2 |
• Synthesis: A strong consensus pick, with both methodologies highlighting Eden Storm as the horse to beat.
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• Spotlight Verdict: The selection is the progressive 3-year-old Spirit Lead Me, who “can defy a 7lb rise and make it 5-9 on the AW.” The formerly useful Epictetus is dropping to a dangerous mark and is worth a look.
• Key Contenders Analysis:
◦ Spirit Lead Me: Bids for a hat-trick after wins at Kempton and Southwell. The latest form “looks solid with the third having won twice since.” “Major player.”
◦ Hitched: A C&D winner back on the same mark as his last success. “High on the list.”
◦ Epictetus: A Group 3/Listed winner as a 3-year-old who has dropped in class. “Worth a second look.”
• Quantitative Ratings Analysis: The ratings favor the class-dropper Epictetus, with the progressive Spotlight pick Spirit Lead Me ranked significantly lower.
| Horse | Total Score | Odds |
| Epictetus | 285 | 6/1 |
| Tribal Wisdom | 281 | 9/2 |
| Hitched | 280 | 12/1 |
| Spirit Lead Me | 239 | 5/2 |
• Synthesis: A clash of perspectives. The ratings favor the back-class of Epictetus, while the analyst favors the sharp upward trajectory of the younger Spirit Lead Me.
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• Spotlight Verdict: In a “cracking contest,” the selection is Morte Point, who “keeps on improving and is just 2lb higher than when dead-heating at Southwell last time.” Sarab Star is the second choice.
• Key Contenders Analysis:
◦ Morte Point: In fine form with figures of 21211 since August. Bids for a hat-trick. “No reason why he shouldn’t continue to progress.”
◦ Sarab Star: Form reads 112. Beaten just a neck on handicap debut and is “still shortlisted with further progress possible.”
◦ Al Arbeed: Ran well on handicap debut off this mark in a race whose form “has since been boosted.”
• Quantitative Ratings Analysis: The model is in full agreement, placing Morte Point at the very top of the ratings.
| Horse | Total Score | Odds |
| Morte Point | 347 | 5/1 |
| So Darn Hot | 334 | 4/1 |
| Crown Board | 322 | 13/2 |
• Synthesis: Another strong consensus, with both expert analysis and the data model identifying the rapidly improving Morte Point as the leading contender.
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• Spotlight Verdict: The selection is Calypso Breeze, who is the “only previous winner in this field and gained that success over C&D.” The horse “remains open to further progress back here.” Molly Mac is the second choice.
• Key Contenders Analysis:
◦ Calypso Breeze: “Took a big step forward with C&D success on handicap debut” and may have been unsuited by soft ground last time.
◦ Woody Y Fernandez: Ran respectably in a similar event last time. “One of the main form contenders.”
◦ Molly Mac: May benefit from a first-time hood on her debut for a new yard.
• Quantitative Ratings Analysis: The ratings model gives a slight edge to Woody Y Fernandez over the Spotlight’s pick.
| Horse | Total Score | Odds |
| Woody Y Fernandez | 214 | 5/2 |
| Oh So Perfect | 203 | 5/1 |
| Akrivos | 184 | 12/1 |
| Calypso Breeze | 179 | 10/1 |
• Synthesis: A minor disagreement, with the model favoring the consistent form of Woody Y Fernandez while the analyst sees more upside in the course and distance winner Calypso Breeze.
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• Spotlight Verdict: The selection is Ritaal, who looked “open to plenty of improvement when chasing home a rival who had already shown ability” over 7f on debut. Moira Express is the second choice.
• Key Contenders Analysis:
◦ Ritaal: A 200,000gns yearling who was a well-held second on debut. The drop in trip is not an obvious positive but is open to improvement.
◦ Sound And Vision: Ran green on debut over C&D but “did finish her race off well and ought to improve.”
◦ Angel Love: Beaten just a nose on debut but was turned over at short odds next time.
• Quantitative Ratings Analysis: The ratings model favors the horse with the strongest piece of form, Angel Love.
| Horse | Total Score | Odds |
| Angel Love | 264 | 5/2 |
| Moira Express | 247 | 9/2 |
| Zooella | 237 | 9/2 |
| Ritaal | 222 | 4/1 |
• Synthesis: The analyst is focusing on the potential of Ritaal, while the data model leans on the concrete achievement of Angel Love, who has come closest to winning.
7:00 Midnite A Next Generation Betting App Handicap (Div I)
• Spotlight Verdict: The verdict suggests it is “worth taking a chance on Triple Charged.” Although an exposed maiden, “he begins his career with Faye Bramley off a lowly mark and he would have strong claims if revived by a change of scenery.”
• Key Contenders Analysis:
◦ Triple Charged: A 15-race maiden who showed promise last winter. Starts for a new trainer off a “greatly reduced mark.” “Intriguing contender.”
◦ Alafdhal: “Took advantage of a drop in the weights” to win over C&D on Saturday. A penalty “shouldn’t prevent another good run.”
◦ Havana Club: Best efforts are over 1m but ran well over 7f last time, suggesting this drop to 6f might suit.
• Quantitative Ratings Analysis: The ratings model heavily favors the recent C&D winner Alafdhal, while the speculative pick Triple Charged is ranked near the bottom.
| Horse | Total Score | Odds |
| Alafdhal | 244 | 7/2 |
| Smasher | 221 | 4/1 |
| Sisters In The Sky | 201 | 14/1 |
| Triple Charged | 176 | 8/1 |
• Synthesis: A classic clash of form versus speculation. The model is firmly behind the proven, in-form winner Alafdhal. The analyst is taking a risk on a revival for Triple Charged based on a stable change and a favorable handicap mark.
7:30 Midnite A Next Generation Betting App Handicap (Div II)
• Spotlight Verdict: The analyst suggests Woodhay Whisper “may be the safest option” as not many rivals arrive in form. The horse “ran her best race for her new stable when second” last time and “should be in the thick of it once again.”
• Key Contenders Analysis:
◦ Woodhay Whisper: A free-going filly who was a good second at Lingfield four weeks ago and runs off the same mark.
◦ Rock Master: Given a positive ride on stable debut before fading. The return to 6f is a positive. “One to consider.”
◦ Hannah’s Return: A C&D winner who should be sharper for her recent return from a long absence.
• Quantitative Ratings Analysis: The ratings model is in complete agreement, placing Woodhay Whisper at the top of the list.
| Horse | Total Score | Odds |
| Woodhay Whisper | 229 | 7/2 |
| Rock Master | 211 | 12/1 |
| Sarabi | 210 | 8/1 |
• Synthesis: A strong consensus pick. Both the analyst and the data identify Woodhay Whisper as the standout based on a strong recent performance.
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• Spotlight Verdict: The verdict is a “slight preference” for Leading Times, who “managed to make a winning debut at Southwell in September despite plenty going wrong.” Night Storm is a “major player nonetheless.”
• Key Contenders Analysis:
◦ Leading Times: Won on debut despite a slow break and the rider dropping his reins. “Open to plenty of improvement.”
◦ Night Storm: Won at Newcastle last month after being off for 444 days.
◦ Wholehearted: Could be suited by the drop to 5f.
• Quantitative Ratings Analysis: The model is in agreement with the Spotlight’s preference, rating Leading Times as the top horse.
| Horse | Total Score | Odds |
| Leading Times | 310 | 5/2 |
| Night Storm | 272 | 9/4 |
| Wholehearted | 227 | 6/1 |
• Synthesis: Consensus on the winner, with both methodologies impressed by the debut performance of Leading Times.
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• Spotlight Verdict (NAP): The day’s NAP is the “four-time course winner Percy Jones,” who is “taken to return to winning form now dropping back into a Class 5 for the first time since successful over C&D in August.”
• Key Contenders Analysis:
◦ Percy Jones: All four AW wins have come at Wolverhampton. Just 1lb higher than when beating Lightning Touch over C&D. “Much respected.”
◦ Aiming High: Four of five wins have been on the AW, including over C&D. Was a close second at Southwell last month. “Shortlisted.”
◦ Lightning Touch: Beaten a head by Percy Jones over C&D in August and is 2lb better off, but has “regressed in two outings since.”
• Quantitative Ratings Analysis: The ratings model fully supports the NAP selection, placing Percy Jones at the top, just ahead of the horse identified as the main danger.
| Horse | Total Score | Odds |
| Percy Jones | 264 | 6/1 |
| Aiming High | 263 | 3/1 |
| Lightning Touch | 245 | 5/1 |
• Synthesis: A very strong consensus on a NAP selection. The analyst and the data model both point to Percy Jones as the clear winner based on his course form and a favorable drop in class.
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