Executive Summary: A Weekend of Redemption, Resilience, and Heritage
The racing calendar for Saturday, November 29, 2025, presents a pivotal juncture in the National Hunt season, a day where the narrative arc of the entire winter campaign may well be defined. The itinerary, split between the galloping expanses of Newbury in Berkshire and the testing, stiff track of Newcastle in the North East, offers a narrative steeped in redemption and the clash of generations. This is not merely another weekend of sport; it is a stress test for champions and a crucible for emerging talent.
At the forefront of the national consciousness is the return of Constitution Hill in the Grade 1 Fighting Fifth Hurdle at Newcastle. Once considered an invincible force of nature, the champion’s reputation faces its sternest examination following a turbulent spring campaign marred by falls, respiratory issues, and lackluster performances. His presence at Gosforth Park, juxtaposed against the rising unbeaten star The New Lion—a novice of immense promise from the Dan Skelton yard—and the Willie Mullins-trained Anzadam, creates a tactical and psychological battleground that transcends the mere result of a two-mile hurdle. The question hanging over the North East is whether the king retains his crown, or if the fragility exposed last season signals the end of an era.
Simultaneously, Newbury hosts the Coral Gold Cup, formerly the Hennessy Gold Cup, a heritage handicap that remains one of the most grueling tests of stamina and jumping aptitude in the British calendar. With a maximum field declared, including the Cheltenham Gold Cup fourth Monty’s Star carrying top weight, the race demands a forensic analysis of handicapping trends, weight-carrying capabilities, and ground suitability. The race is a statistical anomaly in the modern era; a contest where the weight of history—literally and metaphorically—presses down on the classiest runners, often favoring the unexposed second-season chaser carrying a featherweight.
Meteorological Context and Ground Conditions
The meteorological context for this Saturday is critical and will dictate tactical decisions across both venues.
Newbury reports a complex ground picture. The Hurdle course is designated Soft (Good to Soft in places), while the Chase course is slightly quicker at Good to Soft. This disparity is crucial; the hurdle races, including the competitive Gerry Feilden, will be tests of stamina where the ability to travel through mud is paramount. The chase course, being marginally quicker, may favor those with a higher cruising speed, though the soft patches will still punish any weakness in fitness. The forecast predicts light rain with temperatures ranging between 2.9°C and 10.6°C, and a westerly wind of 8.7 mph. This relatively benign wind should not drastically alter race times, but the moisture in the ground will ensure a true test.
Newcastle, conversely, presents a more rugged challenge. The going is Good to Soft, but the atmospheric conditions are more severe. A wind speed of 15.0 mph from the South West is forecast. At Newcastle, a south-westerly wind can be a significant factor, potentially acting as a cross-headwind in the home straight, making it difficult for front-runners to sustain their effort and rewarding those ridden with patience in behind. The temperature is cooler, peaking at 10.1°C, and while rainfall is negligible (0.12mm), the wind chill and the stiff uphill finish will make the Grade 1 Fighting Fifth a brutal examination of lung capacity.
This report provides an exhaustive, runner-by-runner analysis of the six televised races, synthesizing form, pedigree, trainer trends, and sectional timing implications to offer a definitive verdict on the day’s proceedings.
13:40 Newbury: The ‘Join Coral Bet 10 Get 50’ Handicap Hurdle (Class 2)
Distance: 2 miles 4 1/2 furlongs (2m 4f 118y) Prize Money: £21,784 to the winner Going: Soft (Good to Soft in places) Runners: 15 declared
Race Context and Conditions
Opening the broadcast is a Class 2 Handicap Hurdle over the intermediate distance of nearly 2 miles and 5 furlongs. This distance at Newbury is a unique specialist test. It requires a horse with the tactical speed to maintain position down the long back straight but the profound stamina to endure the soft ground conditions in the home straight, which is one of the longest in the country. The “Daily Rewards Shaker” moniker adorns a race that often serves as a stepping stone for horses targeting the Pertemps Series or major spring handicaps like the Coral Cup.
The field composition typically involves exposed handicappers vulnerable to unexposed second-season hurdlers who are often stepping up in trip. The soft ground on the hurdle course will place a premium on horses who can travel within their comfort zone before the race develops in the final half-mile. A high cruising speed is essential to avoid being dragged out of rhythm before the stamina test truly begins.
Runner Analysis and Form Profiles
Dominic’s Fault (Trainer: Olly Murphy | Jockey: Sean Bowen)
Form Profile: 13/21B- Analysis: Dominic’s Fault represents the archetypal “unexposed” quantity often sought in these competitive Saturday handicaps. Although an eight-year-old, his mileage is incredibly low, suggesting either historical fragility or a deliberate, patient approach by trainer Olly Murphy to protect his mark. His penultimate start at Lingfield resulted in a victory, demonstrating his capability to handle handicap company and mixed ground conditions. However, his most recent outing at Sandown ended prematurely when he was brought down at the third last fence.
The “B” (Brought Down) in his form figure disguises what was shaping up to be a highly competitive run. Sandown is a supreme test of jumping rhythm, and being brought down through no fault of his own leaves his handicap mark relatively preserved by the assessor. Returning off a break, he pairs with Sean Bowen, a jockey currently operating at the peak of his powers and chasing the jockeys’ championship. The Murphy yard has targeted this meeting historically, and Dominic’s Fault’s profile suggests he is potentially ahead of the handicapper. Crucially, the soft ground forecast for the hurdle course should suit his pedigree and action perfectly. He is not a horse who wants the ground rattling fast, and the ease in the surface will allow him to let himself down.
Santos Blue (Trainer: Dan Skelton | Jockey: Ben Sutton)
Form Profile: 1/521- Rating: 142 Analysis: A son of the influential sire Blue Bresil, Santos Blue brings strong form lines from the previous season into this reappearance. His victory on his final start (indicated by the “1-” in the form string) suggests he enters this campaign on an upward trajectory. The 294-day absence is a slight concern for some, but Dan Skelton is renowned for readying his string for major Saturday meetings, often targeting high-value handicaps with fresh horses.
The booking of Mr Ben Sutton, claiming 5lb, is a significant strategic move. In a competitive handicap where Santos Blue is rated 142, that 5lb claim effectively lowers his burden to that of a 137-rated horse, potentially tipping the scales in a tight finish against lighter-weighted rivals. His rating places him near the top of the weights, demanding a classy performance. The “Blue Bresil” influence in his pedigree generally imparts a liking for softer conditions, aligning well with the GoingStick readings of 4.2 on the hurdle course.
Dargiannini (Trainer: Harry Derham | Jockey: Paul O’Brien)
Form Profile: 5425-1 Rating: 141 Analysis: Harry Derham’s operation has quickly established a reputation for maximizing the potential of recruits from other yards, and Dargiannini is a prime example of this rejuvenation. Coming off a win (indicated by the “1” in his recent form ), he is race-fit compared to several rivals making their seasonal reappearances, such as Santos Blue. This fitness edge is invaluable on soft ground at Newbury, where a lack of conditioning is ruthlessly exposed in the final two furlongs.
His Course and Distance (CD) form is a critical positive factor. Newbury is a specialist’s track where local knowledge of the long straight—knowing exactly when to push the button—is invaluable. However, he faces a stiff task off a mark of 141. The handicapper has reacted to his last win, leaving him little margin for error. He will need to produce a career-best to win off this mark, but his consistency and current wellbeing make him a solid yardstick for the race.
French Ship (Trainer: P Hobbs & J White | Jockey: Harry Cobden)
Form Profile: 141-F1 Rating: 136 Analysis: A five-year-old by French Navy, French Ship is one of the younger contenders in the field, offering significant scope for physical and mental improvement. His recent form is erratic but undeniably talented, characterized by the “F1” sequence—a fall followed by a win. This resilience is a positive trait.
The booking of Harry Cobden is a significant statement of intent from the Philip Hobbs and Johnson White yard. Cobden, a former champion jockey, rarely takes rides on horses without a serious chance. Rated 136, French Ship receives significant weight from the likes of Santos Blue and Dargiannini (approx. 6lbs and 5lbs respectively). His age profile fits the trend of upwardly mobile hurdlers excelling in this race type, as five-year-olds often have a steeper improvement curve than exposed eight-year-olds.
Lud’or (Trainer: Not specified in snippet but implied French connection)
Form Profile: 3212-1 Analysis: The form figures “3212-1” indicate a horse in the form of his life. Winning last time out (“1”) suggests he is progressive. As a four-year-old (implied by typical “French” naming and profile in this race type), he would receive a weight allowance in weight-for-age terms, though in a handicap, this is adjusted via rating. His recent victory suggests he is thriving, and French-breds typically handle the softer ground well.
Tactical Overview and Verdict
The race likely lacks a designated trailblazer, which may result in a muddling pace. In such a scenario, the long Newbury straight becomes a tactical trap; go too early and you run out of fuel; wait too long and the sprint finishes favor those with a turn of foot.
This scenario favors Dominic’s Fault. His tactical versatility allows Sean Bowen to position him just off the pace, avoiding the traffic problems that can plague hold-up horses in slow-run races. His unexposed profile suggests he has more to offer than his current mark implies. Santos Blue is the class act but conceding weight and fitness is a massive hurdle. French Ship is the danger, receiving weight and partnered with Cobden.
| Horse | Trainer | Jockey | Verdict |
| Dominic’s Fault | Olly Murphy | Sean Bowen | Winner – Unexposed, strategically handicapped, soft ground suits. |
| French Ship | Hobbs & White | Harry Cobden | Danger – Progressive 5yo, receives weight, strong jockey booking. |
| Santos Blue | Dan Skelton | Ben Sutton (5) | Place – Class act, claim helps, but fitness a query. |
| Dargiannini | Harry Derham | Paul O’Brien | Place – Race fit and course winner, but handicap mark is high. |
14:00 Newcastle: BetMGM Fighting Fifth Hurdle (Grade 1)
Distance: 2 miles 190 yards Prize Money: Grade 1 Allocation Going: Good to Soft Runners: 5 Declared
Race Context: The Redemption of a King
The 2025 Fighting Fifth Hurdle is arguably the most anticipated hurdle race of the pre-Christmas period. It is not merely a contest of speed; it is a referendum on the career of Constitution Hill. The highest-rated hurdler of modern times, his 2024/25 campaign was a disaster, featuring falls at Cheltenham and Aintree and a tame fifth at Punchestown.
He faces The New Lion, an unbeaten novice graduate from the Dan Skelton yard, and Anzadam, a Willie Mullins raider stepping in for State Man. With only five runners declared, the tactical dynamic is fragile; a lack of pace could turn this into a sprint, a scenario that historically favors the raw speed of Constitution Hill—if he retains it.
Runner Analysis
Constitution Hill (Trainer: Nicky Henderson | Jockey: Nico de Boinville)
The Narrative: The overriding question is whether the engine that powered him to a devastating Supreme and Champion Hurdle victory remains intact. Reports from Seven Barrows indicate a rigorous, almost forensic preparation. Nicky Henderson has utilized “padded hurdles” brought specifically from Kempton to school the horse at home, a psychological adjustment designed to rebuild the horse’s confidence after his jumping errors last spring. A public gallop at Newbury recently was described as “great,” with Henderson stating, “He’s ready to rock and roll… I can’t do much more without a race”.
Form & Physiology: Timeform described his Punchestown run as “disconcertingly tame” , a stark contrast to his previous dominance. However, Henderson’s genius lies in rehabilitation (e.g., the return of Sprinter Sacre). If Constitution Hill returns to even 90% of his 170+ rating, he is statistically superior to this field. The “Good to Soft” ground at Newcastle is ideal, offering a cushion without being a bog. The small field suits him; he can lead if necessary, as he did in the Aintree Hurdle, to ensure a true test. The market odds of 6/4 or 7/4 reflect a lingering doubt among punters, but the vibes from the stable are bullish.
The New Lion (Trainer: Dan Skelton | Jockey: Harry Skelton)
The Challenger: Unbeaten and the winner of the Turners Novices’ Hurdle (2m 5f), The New Lion drops back to 2 miles for this test. This is a bold, almost audacious move by Dan Skelton. His novice form is immaculate, but he lacks the battle-hardening of open Grade 1 company. Skelton admits Constitution Hill could be “extremely hard to beat” , yet the market support (7/4) suggests a belief that the king is vulnerable and that the young pretender has the speed to exploit it.
Tactical Fit: The drop in trip is the primary concern. Can a horse bred and campaigned for 2.5 miles match the cruising speed of a Champion Hurdler over 2 miles? If the pace is slow, his stamina might be nullified by Constitution Hill’s turn of foot. However, if they go hard, his stamina kicks in up the stiff Newcastle finish. The Skelton team has had this race in mind for some time, viewing The New Lion as a horse with “untapped potential”.
Anzadam (Trainer: Willie Mullins | Jockey: Paul Townend)
The Wildcard: With State Man absent, Willie Mullins deploys Anzadam. Unbeaten in four starts (two in France, two in Ireland), he is the “dark horse” of the race. Mullins does not send runners across the Irish Sea for the sea air; his presence suggests they believe he is Grade 1 caliber. However, pundits note that he may not be a direct replacement for State Man’s quality and that the vibes from Closutton are not as “convinced” as they are for their primary stars. He adds intrigue but lacks the proven data points of the top two.
Golden Ace (Trainer: Jeremy Scott | Jockey: Lorcan Williams)
The Mare: The Cheltenham Festival winner (Mares’ Novice Hurdle) is the only runner with recent race fitness, having run at Wetherby earlier this month (though she was beaten there). She defeated Brighterdaysahead at Cheltenham, form which reads exceptionally well in hindsight. While rated 152 , significantly below Constitution Hill’s peak, her race fitness and receiving the mares’ allowance (7lb) brings her closer in adjusted ratings. She is the value play for a place, especially if the top two cut each other’s throats.
Nemean Lion (Trainer: Kerry Lee | Jockey: Conor O’Farrell)
The Outsider: A Grade 2 winner and a consistent performer, but in this company, Nemean Lion looks outclassed. He is the field filler in a race of giants, likely running for prize money rather than the win.
Tactical Overview and Verdict
The lack of a pacemaker is the defining variable. Henderson has stated, “If Nico wanted to front run, I wouldn’t have a problem with that”. It is highly probable Constitution Hill will control the race from the front to avoid a sprint finish where a mistake could occur. By dictating the fractions, De Boinville can test the speed of The New Lion (a stayers’ type) and the experience of Anzadam.
The “New Lion” hype ignores the difficulty of dropping in trip against a speed horse at a track like Newcastle. Unless Constitution Hill has physically regressed significantly, the terms favor him.
Expert Verdict:
- Constitution Hill: The reports of his demise are likely exaggerated. The schooling adjustments and aggressive preparation point to a statement victory.
- The New Lion: A formidable talent, but the drop in trip against a Champion Hurdler is a monumental ask.
- Golden Ace: Race fitness could see her pinch third over Anzadam if the latter runs green.
14:15 Newbury: Coral Racing Club Intermediate Handicap Hurdle (Gerry Feilden)
Distance: 2 miles 69 yards Type: Premier Handicap Runners: 9 declared Going: Soft (Good to Soft in places)
Race Context
The Gerry Feilden is a “Premier Handicap” that serves as a bridge between novice company and the elite hurdle division. It is restricted to “intermediates,” making it a clash of potential. The history of this race suggests looking for a horse rated in the 130s-140s with Grade 1 aspirations, often used as a stepping stone to the Christmas Hurdle or the Betfair Hurdle.
Runner Analysis
Live Conti (Trainer: Dan Skelton | Jockey: Tristan Durrell)
Rating: 143 | Weight: 12-0 Live Conti carries top weight but boasts high-class form, including a win at Auteuil and a second-place finish in a Grade 1 at Aintree. The application of a tongue strap for the first time is a critical equipment change; Skelton’s runners often improve for such tweaks, which can aid breathing on soft ground. However, conceding weight to unexposed rivals on soft ground is a significant hurdle. The 12-0 burden is substantial for a four-year-old.
Give It To Me Oj (Trainer: Gary & Josh Moore | Jockey: Caoilin Quinn)
Rating: 143 | Weight: 12-0 A winner of five consecutive races, including on the flat, this horse is a winning machine. He beat Live Conti by four lengths at Aintree (juvenile hurdle) previously, establishing a collateral form line that favors the Skelton horse at the weights (due to subsequent handicapping), but “Oj” has improved since. The concern is the handicap mark; he is now on a “tough-looking mark” following his winning spree. The Moore stable has targeted this race, and his experience in big fields is an asset.
Indeevar Bleu (Trainer: Olly Murphy | Jockey: Sean Bowen)
Rating: 126 | Weight: 10-11 This is the “handicap blot” potential. Rated only 126, he was a high-class bumper horse who confirmed his hurdles promise when scoring at Leicester last December and followed up with a tidy success at Ffos Las in the spring. He sits at the bottom of the weights. In a race where the top weights are rated 143, receiving nearly 20lbs from the market leaders is a massive advantage on soft ground. Olly Murphy is a trainer who excels at exploiting these marks with unexposed horses.
Tuti Quanti (Trainer: Paul Nicholls | Jockey: Harry Cobden)
Rating: 130 | Weight: 11-1 Disappointed on his handicap debut at Chepstow but had previously run creditably in the Supreme Novices’ Hurdle. The Nicholls yard often improves horses significantly from their first to second run of the season. At 11-1, he is a dangerous floater if he can recapture his festival form.
Verdict
While the market favors the established class of Live Conti and Give It To Me Oj, the handicap structure points toward Indeevar Bleu. The weight disparity is too large to ignore for a horse of his bumper pedigree.
| Horse | Verdict |
| Indeevar Bleu | Winner – Well-handicapped, unexposed, and receives massive weight (20lbs). |
| Live Conti | Place – The class act, solid each-way despite the burden and tongue tie application. |
| Give It To Me Oj | Fade – Winning run likely to end due to handicap compression. |
14:55 Newbury: Coral Gold Cup Handicap Chase (Premier Handicap)
Distance: 3 miles 2 furlongs (3m 1f 214y) Prize Money: £250,000 (£142,375 to winner) Field: 24 Runners Going: Chase Course – Good to Soft Key Trends:
Race Context: The Big One
The Coral Gold Cup is the definitive early-season staying chase. It requires a horse with the tactical speed to hold a position in a large field and the stamina to surge up Newbury’s unrelenting straight. History heavily favors second-season chasers aged 6-8, carrying under 11st 6lb. The race has been won by legends like Arkle, Denman, and Burrough Hill Lad, but in recent years, it has become a race for the progressive handicapper rather than the established Grade 1 horse carrying top weight.
The Contenders: Deep Dive
1. Monty’s Star (Trainer: Henry de Bromhead | Weight: 12-0)
The Class Angle: Fourth in the Cheltenham Gold Cup, Monty’s Star is undoubtedly the best horse in the race on raw ability. However, history is stacked against him. Carrying 12st to victory in this race is a feat reserved for legends. Giving nearly two stone to improving handicappers is a statistical improbability. While he has the class, the soft ground and the relentless gallop of a 24-runner handicap make this a monumental task for his seasonal reappearance.
2. The Doyen Chief (Trainer: Alan King | Weight: 10-6)
The Trend Buster: Alan King’s runner fits the profile perfectly. Rated 137, carrying 10-6, and aged 8, he sits in the “sweet spot” of the weights. He was impressive at Cheltenham last time out, jumping boldly and traveling well. Alan King has a strong record in this race (notably with Smad Place), and The Doyen Chief’s “second-season chaser” profile aligns with the vast majority of recent winners. His light weight allows him to preserve energy for the finish.
3. Myretown (Trainer: Lucinda Russell/M. Scudamore | Weight: 10-11)
The Scottish Raider: A winner at the Cheltenham Festival (Ultima style profile) and race-fit. His position in the betting (around 5/1 or 7/1) reflects his ideal setup: 10-11 is a winning weight. Lucinda Russell, a Grand National-winning trainer, excels with staying chasers. Reports suggest his home work has been “very good” and he is “still improving”. Michael Scudamore, now joint-trainer, notes that he was “at the right end of the handicap” at Cheltenham and hopes he has “a little something up his sleeve”.
4. The Changing Man (Trainer: Joe Tizzard | Weight: 10-12)
The Each-Way Play: Second to Myretown previously, he enjoys a pull in the weights. His run at Ascot (2nd) was a perfect prep, blowing away the cobwebs. Joe Tizzard’s yard is in red-hot form, and this horse’s consistency (22123-2) makes him a reliable place candidate in a race where many will fail to complete.
5. Lowry’s Bar (Trainer: P Hobbs & J White | Weight: 11-3)
The Dark Horse: A massive price (around 25/1), Lowry’s Bar bled when pulled up last time out but has had a long break to recover. Before that, his novice form was electric. If the bleeding issue is resolved, his mark of 148 could underestimate his ability. The stable is “quite happy to go here fresh” and believes the “pace of this race will suit him”. A risky but high-reward proposition for those looking for value.
6. Resplendent Grey (Trainer: Olly Murphy | Weight: 11-8)
The Market Mover: Winner of the bet365 Gold Cup at Sandown and a Listed chase at Carlisle on reappearance. He is in peak form. However, he is now rated 153 and carries 11-8, which puts him in the “danger zone” for weight trends. He needs to be a Grade 1 horse to win off this mark.
Tactical Map
Spanish Harlem and Three Card Brag are likely to press the pace early. Monty’s Star will sit prominent to stay out of trouble. The Doyen Chief and Myretown will likely track the leaders, looking to pounce in the straight. The soft ground on the hurdle track crossings might sap the energy of those carrying 11st 10lb+ (like Intense Raffles and Monty’s Star).
The Verdict
The weight trends are too powerful to ignore. The topweights are class acts, but conceding 20lbs to unexposed rivals at Newbury is a graveyard for favorites.
Expert Verdict:
- The Doyen Chief: Fits every key trend (Weight, Age, Rating). Alan King knows exactly how to win this.
- Myretown: Proven big-field performer, ideal weight, and incoming from a stable that targets stamina tests.
- The Changing Man: Consistent, race-fit, and a solid jumper who will be staying on when others fade.
- Monty’s Star: Class will carry him to a place, but the weight anchor will tell in the final furlong.
15:15 Newcastle: BetMGM Rehearsal Handicap Chase (Premier Handicap)
Distance: 2 miles 7 1/2 furlongs Prize Money: £70,000 Going: Good to Soft Runners: 8 Declared
Race Context
The Rehearsal Chase is a historic contest that often features horses who missed the cut for the Coral Gold Cup or prefer the northern circuit. It is a stiff test where jumping rhythm at Newcastle’s fences is paramount. The small field (8 runners) changes the dynamic compared to the Newbury feature; it becomes a more tactical affair.
Runner Analysis
Cruz Control (Trainer: Tom Lacey | Jockey: Stan Sheppard)
Form: 114/7P1- Analysis: Cruz Control is typically viewed as a spring specialist (wins in March/April), but he has a decent record when fresh. He won the Freebooter Handicap at Aintree, proving his stamina. Snippets indicate he “enjoyed a nice spin at the Newbury gallops” recently, suggesting he is forward for this reappearance. He has won after a 261-day break previously, negating the “fitness” worry. His aggressive jumping style suits the bold fences at Newcastle.
Hang In There (Trainer: Emma Lavelle | Weight: 12-0)
Analysis: The class act of the race (Rated 152). He carries top weight (12-0). Unlike the Coral Gold Cup, the field here is smaller, which helps top weights as they don’t have to navigate as much traffic. However, he is 11 years old, and conceding weight to younger legs like Cruz Control (8yo) and Jasmin De Grugy (6yo) is difficult on a stiff track like Newcastle.
Jasmin De Grugy (Trainer: Anthony Honeyball | Weight: 10-2)
Analysis: A progressive 6-year-old with a string of “1s” in his form. Anthony Honeyball is a master at placing his horses. This is a step up in class, but the “unexposed” tag applies strongly here. Carrying just 10-2, he receives nearly two stone from Hang In There. If his jumping holds up in this higher grade, he is the handicap blot.
Deafening Silence (Trainer: Dan Skelton | Weight: 10-8)
Analysis: Dan Skelton’s runner returns to action with “scope for better”. His form (1/34215-) is solid without being spectacular, but Skelton’s runners at Newcastle must always be respected given the stable’s strike rate.
Verdict
Cruz Control ticks the boxes for course suitability and freshness. He is tipped by multiple sources and fits the profile of a winner who can dominate from the front or stalk the pace. However, Jasmin De Grugy is the danger at the weights.
| Horse | Verdict |
| Cruz Control | Winner – Course suitability, fresh record, aggressive jumper. |
| Jasmin De Grugy | Danger – Massive weight advantage (10-2), progressive profile. |
| Hang In There | Place – Classy but vulnerable to younger, lighter rivals. |
15:35 Newbury: Coral “Pipped At The Post” Handicap Chase (Class 3)
Distance: 2 miles 92 yards Going: Good to Soft (Chase course) Runners: 10 Declared
Race Context
A fast-paced 2-mile chase to close the card. This race demands precise jumping at speed. The fences come thick and fast at Newbury over this trip, and mistakes are costly.
Runner Analysis
Etalon (Trainer: Dan Skelton | Jockey: Kielan Woods)
Profile: Dan Skelton’s runners in 2m handicap chases are always dangerous. Etalon has form figures of 5U3P41-52. The recent second places suggest he is knocking on the door. He is a Course and Distance (CD) winner, which is gold dust at Newbury. Rated 141, he carries weight but has the class. The “U” and “P” in his form are concerns, suggesting he can be error-prone or temperamental, but on his day, he is very fast.
General Medrano (Trainer: Emma Lavelle | Jockey: Ben Jones)
Profile: Timeform’s verdict selection. His form (4280-4) looks uninspiring at a glance, but his 4th place at Ascot recently was a “sighter”—a preparatory run to gain fitness. He drops in grade or faces a slightly easier task here than the Ascot contest. Emma Lavelle’s yard is in form, and Ben Jones rides Newbury well. He is the solid option.
Rath Gaul Hill (Trainer: Sam Thomas | Jockey: Sam Twiston-Davies)
Profile: Tipped by Sam Turner. A 2-mile specialist who thrives on good-to-soft ground. Sam Thomas is a shrewd trainer who targets specific races.
Verdict
General Medrano is selected based on the Timeform endorsement and the “eye-catching” nature of his recent run. He is ready to strike. Etalon is the danger but can be risky.
Expert Verdict:
- General Medrano
- Etalon
- Rath Gaul Hill
Conclusion
The analysis of Saturday’s card reveals a clear pattern: a day where the established order is challenged by the new guard.
- Constitution Hill is expected to silence the doubters at Newcastle, reaffirming his status as the premier hurdler.
- The Doyen Chief offers the most compelling statistical case in the Coral Gold Cup, leveraging the weight trends that have defined the race for decades.
- The supporting card offers strong opportunities for Dominic’s Fault and Indeevar Bleu, both of whom appear strategically handicapped to exploit the conditions.
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