By Gemini Racing

The Bar One Racing Juvenile Hurdle (Grade 3) at Fairyhouse is often viewed as a simple toss-up between the big yards. Today, the market has installed the Willie Mullins-trained French recruit Narciso Has as the Even-money favourite.

However, a deep dive into the last 25 years of data for this specific race suggests the “jolly” might be worth taking on. The trends point away from Closutton and squarely toward a yard that knows exactly what it takes to win this specific contest.

Here is why the smart money is going elsewhere at 12:35.

The “Down Royal” Factor

If there is one trend to rule them all in this race, it is the preparation path. The data shows that horses arriving here via Down Royal are the ones to beat.

• The Stat: Runners coming from Down Royal have a 23% strike rate (5 wins from 22 runners).
• The Logic: This path indicates a horse with race fitness and local experience, rather than a “dark horse” making their Irish debut.

This is a major tick for Gordon Elliott’s Mange Tout, who landed a win at Down Royal just 29 days ago. In contrast, Narciso Has is making his Irish stable debut, a profile that statistically underperforms here compared to the race-hardened runners.

The Trainer & Jockey Split

While Willie Mullins is a dominant force everywhere, this race hasn’t been his happiest hunting ground compared to his peers.

• Gordon Elliott: 5 wins from 21 runners (24%).
• Willie Mullins: 3 wins from 18 runners (17%).

The disparity widens when you look at the men in the saddle. Jack Kennedy (riding Mange Tout) boasts a 33% strike rate in this contest. Meanwhile, Mark Walsh (riding Narciso Has) has struggled to convert here historically, with just 1 win from 10 rides (10%).

The Verdict: Mange Tout (11/4)

The profile of the winner of this race is specific: A horse from the top two in the betting, trained by a yard with a high strike rate in the event, and arriving with a prep run at Down Royal.

Mange Tout ticks every single box.

• Trainer: Elliott (Top stats).
• Jockey: Kennedy (Top stats).
• Prep: Down Royal Winner.
• Price: 11/4 (Solid value against a vulnerable favourite).

The Danger: Of course, Narciso Has could be anything, but at Evens, you are paying a premium for the “Mullins Factor” in a race where the Mullins factor is historically weaker.

The Lively Longshot: If you want an each-way play, look at In My Teens (10/1). Gavin Cromwell has a small sample size here but a 33% win rate (1 from 3), suggesting he doesn’t target this race unless he has one ready.

Recommendation: Mange Tout to Win @ 11/4