Date: Sunday, 30th November 2025 Race: Bar One Racing Casino Handicap Hurdle (Listed)

The Sunday card at Fairyhouse is always a highlight of the Winter Festival, but for stats-lovers, the Grade B (now Listed) Handicap Hurdle at 3.11 is a fascinating puzzle.

The market has formed early, and the punting masses have latched onto the youngsters. Last Kingdom and Puturhandstogether are dominating the betting, but if you dig into the 15-year history of this race, you might want to hold onto your cash before backing a juvenile.

Here is why the trends suggest the value lies elsewhere today.

1. The Age Barrier

The most glaring stat in this race is the performance of 4-year-olds. In a race often run at a furious gallop, experience counts. Historically, 4-year-olds have a win rate of just 4% (3 wins from 67 runs).

• The Problem: Both market leaders, Last Kingdom and Puturhandstogether, are 4. They are priced on potential, but history suggests they often find this specific handicap a bridge too far against hardened older horses.

2. The “Elliott” Anomaly

Usually, backing a Gordon Elliott runner in a big handicap at Fairyhouse is a licence to print money. However, this race is his kryptonite.

• The Stat: Gordon Elliott is 0 wins from 29 runners in this race historically.
• The Trap: Bowensonfire looks perfect on paper. He’s 5 years old (the ideal age) and arrives off a nice 37-day break. But with that 0/29 stable record hanging over him, he becomes a massive statistical risk at his current price.

3. The “Fresh” Angle

We are looking for a horse aged 5 or 6 who is returning from a break. The trends show that horses off the track for 31–60 days or those making their seasonal reappearance (120+ days) have the best strike rates. A horse that ran last week is a definite ‘No’.

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The Verdict: Zillow (W.P. Mullins)

If we strip away the hype and stick purely to the profile of previous winners, one horse stands out.

Zillow fits the mould perfectly:

• Age: He is a 5-year-old—the “sweet spot” age group that has produced 20 winners in recent years.
• Freshness: He returns from a 115-day break. He skips the “bounce” factor and comes here fresh, which the stats love.
• Trainer: While Charles Byrnes is the master of this race (60% strike rate!), he has no runner today. W.P. Mullins doesn’t have the “curse” that the Elliott yard seems to suffer here, making Zillow the safest statistical play.

The Trade: At odds of around 5/1, Zillow offers the perfect balance. He isn’t the exposed favourite (Last Kingdom), and he isn’t carrying the weight of a negative stable trend (Bowensonfire).

Selection: Zillow to win. Danger: Slurricane (Fits the age profile, though the yard is smaller).

Bet responsibly. Trends are a guide, not a guarantee.