The Winter Festival at Fairyhouse is where the National Hunt season truly shifts gears, and the Royal Bond Novice Hurdle (1.35) is often the first serious marker for the Supreme Novices’ Hurdle in March.

Looking at the market this morning, the Willie Mullins machine is in full flow with Love Me Tender trading as the clear 6/4 favourite. It’s easy to see why—he’s unbeaten and represents the most powerful yard in the country.

However, after diving deep into the HorseRaceBase trends, I believe the favourite is far more vulnerable than the prices suggest. In fact, the “smart money” profile points squarely at his main rival.

Here is why the stats suggest we should be taking on the favourite today.

The “Freshness” Factor

One of the most telling trends in this race is how recent a horse has run. The history books show a massive bias towards horses that are race-fit but fresh:

• The Sweet Spot: Horses running within the last 8–30 days have an excellent strike rate.
• The Warning Sign: Horses returning after a break of 31–60 days have a significantly lower win rate (just 8%).

Love Me Tender last ran 56 days ago. While Willie Mullins can ready one off a break better than anyone, the stats suggest this mid-range absence is a negative for a novice at this level. Koktail Brut, on the other hand, ran just 17 days ago. He fits the “sweet spot” perfectly—fit, sharp, and ready to fire.

The “Burnout” Risk

Another fascinating angle is the number of runs this season.

• Love Me Tender has already been to the well three times this season. Trends show that horses with 3 runs coming into this race have a strike rate of just 9%.
• Koktail Brut has had just one run (a win). Horses with exactly one previous run in the current season have produced the highest number of winners historically (18% strike rate). He has much more scope for improvement.

The Connections: Jack Kennedy is King

We all know Willie Mullins dominates the entry book, but when it comes to efficiency in this specific race, Gordon Elliott and Jack Kennedy are the deadly duo.

• Gordon Elliott boasts a 25% strike rate in the Royal Bond (4 wins from 16), edging out Mullins’ 21%.
• Jack Kennedy is the standout statistic. He has won this race 3 times from just 5 rides—a staggering 60% strike rate. When Kennedy rides a fancied horse in the Royal Bond, they rarely miss.

The Verdict

The market has priced Love Me Tender on reputation and the sheer weight of the Mullins name, but his profile (3 runs already, nearly 2 months off the track) suggests he might be plateauing just as others are improving.

Koktail Brut is the textbook “Royal Bond” winner. He is trained by the race’s most efficient yard, ridden by the race’s most successful modern jockey, and arrives with the perfect balance of fitness and freshness. At 11/4, he is the value bet of the day.

Selection: KOKTAIL BRUT (11/4) – Win