Race: 15:27 Kempton – Unibet Hyde Stakes (Listed)
Date: Monday, 1 December 2025
Trends analysis is about finding the signal in the noise. For tomorrow’s Listed feature at Kempton, the signal is flashing red for one age group and green for another.
We have filtered the data to the last 15 years to ensure we are looking at modern, relevant history. The results provide a clear “System Pick” and a very prominent “Avoid.”
Here is your statistical playbook for the 2025 renewal.
1. The ‘Death Stat’: The 4-Year-Old Graveyard
The most powerful trend in this race is negative. For a Listed race, you would expect 4-year-olds (often entering their prime) to perform well. The reality is the opposite.
The Stat: 4-year-olds have the worst record of any major age group. From 44 runners in the last 15 years, they have produced just 2 winners (a 5% strike rate).
The Cost: If you had backed every 4-year-old blindly, you would be sitting on a loss of -30.5 points.
The 2025 Implication: This is a major concern for supporters of Ebt’s Guard. While he brings solid form, he is fighting a trend that sees 95% of his age group fail.
2. The ‘Sweet Spot’: 3-Year-Olds
If the 4-year-olds are struggling, who is winning? The younger generation.
The Stat: 3-year-olds have won 8 of the last 15 renewals. They operate at a healthy 18% strike rate and have generated a +36 points profit.
The Match: This is the primary reason Chancellor (3yo) is our system pick. He falls into the most prolific winning age bracket.
3. The ‘Value’ Draw: Stall 4
We need to be transparent with the data here.
The Stat: Stall 4 is the most profitable stall in the last 15 years, showing a massive +75 points profit.
The Context: This profit is heavily driven by big-priced winners rather than a high frequency of wins (14% strike rate).
The Verdict: While Stall 4 isn’t a “guaranteed winner” every year, history suggests that when a horse pops up from this box, they are often overpriced. Chancellor is drawn in Stall 4, adding a layer of “value potential” to his strong age profile.
4. The Danger: Torito & James Doyle
If there is a fly in the ointment for Chancellor, it is the 5-year-old Torito.
The Age: 5-year-olds also perform well (+75.25 profit from 27 runs).
The Jockey: James Doyle has excellent stats in this race: 2 wins from 6 rides (33% strike rate) with a +17 points profit.
The Draw: Torito breaks from Stall 3, which is statistically reliable (20% strike rate).
Summary: The Statistical Verdict
The data paints a clear picture: Fade the 4-year-olds and back the 3-year-old with the value draw.
The System Pick: CHANCELLOR
Why? Fits the dominant 3yo age trend (8 wins in 15 years) and occupies the historically high-value Stall 4.
The Saver: TORITO
Why? Represents the profitable James Doyle angle and fits the solid 5yo trends.
The Avoid: EBT’S GUARD
Why? The 4yo record (2/44) is simply too poor to ignore at short odds.