Race: 1.05 Fairyhouse – Bar One Racing Porterstown Handicap Chase (Listed) Distance: 3m 5f | Going: Yielding to Soft

The Porterstown Handicap Chase is a true war of attrition. Over three miles and five furlongs at Fairyhouse, you aren’t just looking for a horse; you are looking for a specific type of stamina and preparation.

We have crunched the last 15 years of data from HorseRaceBase, and the trends for this marathon are incredibly specific. Forget the obvious favourites—the value lies in the outliers.

Here is what the numbers say about today’s runners.

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The “Perfect” Profile

If we built the ideal winner from historical data, they would look like this:

• Age: Either a hardened 10-year-old (+43.50 profit) or a progressive 6-year-old (66% strike rate). Avoid the 7 and 8-year-olds; they are historically over-bet and under-deliver.
• Prep: They ran recently—specifically 8 to 15 days ago.
• Last Run: They did not win last time out. In fact, horses finishing 4th last time show a massive +75.83 profit.
• Weight: The sweet spot is 10st 7lb (+31.83 profit).

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The Selection: Beaufort Scale (The Young Improver)

The standout trend for this race is the performance of 6-year-olds. While the sample size is small, they have a 66% strike rate and a huge level stakes profit. In a race usually dominated by exposed veterans, the youngsters running off lower weights often have more in hand than the handicapper realises.

Beaufort Scale is the sole qualifier here.

• The Age: He is the only 6-year-old in the field.
• The Prep: He ran 14 days ago (Navan), hitting the perfect “8-15 days” window.
• The Weight: Carrying 10st 6lb, he is one pound off the “Golden Weight.”
• The Yard: Gordon Elliott targets this race, having won it three times recently.

He finished 7th last time out, which actually works in his favour statistically. We want a horse that had a pipe-opener but hasn’t been penalised for a win.

The “System” Pick: Brucejack

If you follow the profit lines religiously, you have to look at Brucejack. The data threw up a fascinating anomaly: horses that finished 4th last time out have a remarkable profit of +75.83 in this race. Brucejack finished 4th at Gowran Park 22 days ago. He is an 8-year-old (which is a negative trend), but at a big price, that profit angle is hard to ignore for system layers.

The Course Specialist: History Of Fashion

He won this race last year and fits the 10st 7lb weight trend to the ounce. However, he is now 11, and while 10-year-olds have a great record, 11-year-olds have a poor 50% loss rate. He is one for the placings if the ground stays holding.

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Who to Avoid (The Red Flags)

The trends are ruthless, and they suggest opposing some popular runners today:

1. St Deniss Well: He won last time out. Trends suggest the “bounce” factor or the handicapper’s reaction makes last-time-out winners poor value here. Plus, 7-year-olds have a -31.67 loss record.
2. Better Times Ahead: Another last-time-out winner aged 8. The 8-year-old age group has the worst record in the race (-43.50 loss).
3. The Navan Curse: Historically, horses coming directly from a run at Navan are 0/60 in this race. Note: Beaufort Scale ran at Navan, so he has to defy this specific track stat, but his age profile may compensate.

The Verdict

The stats point firmly toward Beaufort Scale. He represents the “unexposed improver” profile that has decimated the older horses in this contest when they turn up.

• Win Bet: Beaufort Scale
• Trend Each-Way: Brucejack (chasing the “Finished 4th” stat)