We’ve all been there. You look at the racecard, spot the warm favourite, see a top jockey booked, and think it’s a “steering job.” But as any seasoned punter knows, the market can be a cruel mistress.
Today, I’ve dived into the last 365 days of data from HorseRaceBase to answer a simple question: When the money is down, who delivers in the saddle?
We aren’t just looking for winners; we are looking for value. Here is the breakdown of the “Jollies” over the last year.
The MVP: Gavin Sheehan
If there is one takeaway from this data, it is this: Respect Gavin Sheehan.
Usually, backing favourites blindly is a quick way to the poorhouse due to the bookmaker’s overround. However, Sheehan is defying the logic.
The Stat: 108 rides on favourites, 54 wins (50%).
The Profit: +£20.00 (to a £1 stake).
To maintain a 50% strike rate over a sample of 100+ rides is elite. To show a massive 20-point profit suggests the market consistently underestimates his mounts. He isn’t just winning on 1/4 shots; he is winning on favourites that actually offer a return. He is, statistically, the punter’s best friend right now.
The “Bankers”: Townend and the Amateurs
If you are building an accumulator and just need a green tick, you look to the Champion.
Paul Townend has a staggering 51.38% strike rate on favourites (93 wins from 181 runs). While you would have made a small loss backing them all blindly (-£6.44), that reliability is the backbone of many a Saturday multiple.
Insider Tip: Keep an eye on the amateur riders in Bumpers and Hunter Chases, specifically Miss Fern O’Brien (67% win rate) and Miss J Townend (60% win rate). When they are on the favourite, it usually means they are sitting on a horse that is vastly superior to the field.
The “Overbet” Danger Zone
This is the uncomfortable part of the blog where we have to look at the cold hard numbers. Some jockeys, despite their talent, are enduring a statistically poor run when riding the market leader.
Henry Brooke: With a 21% strike rate on favourites and a -£29.46 loss, his mounts appear to be significantly over-valued by the market.
Sam Twiston-Davies: A brilliant rider, but the stats show a -£22.42 loss on favourites over the last year. This is likely the “Name Tax”—punters back Sam because they know him, shortening the price below the horse’s true probability of winning.
Rachael Blackmore: A surprising 19% strike rate on favourites. Caveat: Rachael often rides in the most competitive Grade 1 races where even the favourite faces a stiff task, but it’s worth noting that being the market leader hasn’t guaranteed success for her recently.
The Hidden Gems
Finally, here are three names you might not instantly look for, but who are quietly getting the job done:
Michael G Nolan: 64% Win Rate (+£17.96 Profit)
Brian Hayes: 61% Win Rate (+£15.25 Profit)
Sean Quinlan: While he shows a loss, his 38% place rate suggests he gives you a great run for your money each-way.
The Verdict
The next time you see Gavin Sheehan on a favourite, the stats say he’s worth a second look. Conversely, be wary of the “big names” in mid-week handicaps—the market may have crushed the value long before the tapes go up.