Analyst Briefing Note

This internal briefing synthesizes the key market dynamics and expert analysis for today’s race meetings. By examining significant market movers, the impact of non-runners, and top selections from both qualitative (Spotlight) and quantitative (TimeWise) sources, this report aims to identify the primary betting narratives and strategic opportunities across the cards at Clonmel, Lingfield, Southwell, and Newcastle.

——————————————————————————–

1. Market Moves Summary

Analyzing significant market movers provides a clear barometer of sentiment, highlighting where morning confidence is being placed or where it is beginning to wane. The following “steamers” (horses with shortening prices) and “drifters” (those with lengthening prices) represent the most substantial shifts in the early markets, offering crucial intelligence on the day’s key narratives.

1.1. Key Steamers (Strongest Support)

The following runners have attracted the most significant and sustained support, indicating strong confidence from the market.

• Sidiriya (2:05 Clonmel): Price has collapsed from 20/1 into 7/1 for trainer P.J. Rothwell.

• Typeface (5:45 Newcastle): Significant support has seen the price contract from 9/2 to 13/8 for trainer Ian Williams.

• Viking Glory (3:43 Newcastle): Price contracted significantly from 11/4 to 11/10 for trainer Adrian Keatley.

• Jet Packer (1:30 Lingfield): Backed in from 12/1 to 5/1 for trainer J.R. Boyle.

• Kimeko Glory (2:00 Lingfield): Price has shortened dramatically from 14/1 into 6/1 for trainer Charles Hills.

1.2. Notable Drifters (Weakening Confidence)

Confidence appears to be significantly eroding for these runners, with their prices lengthening considerably.

• Raintown (IRE) (2:00 Lingfield): Price has drifted dramatically from 15/2 to 25/1 for trainer J.S. Moore.

• Shoot First (IRE) (1:05 Clonmel): Has seen a major negative move, drifting from 7/1 out to 20/1 for trainer C. Byrnes.

• Cooladdi (IRE) (1:35 Clonmel): Confidence has weakened, with the price lengthening from 9/1 to 25/1 for trainer Conor Maxwell.

• Haveyoumissedme (3:12 Newcastle): Has drifted from 6/1 out to 16/1 for trainer Iain Jardine.

• Shalfa (IRE) (3:00 Lingfield): Price has eased significantly from 11/4 to 7/1 for trainer Lydia Richards.

1.3. Market Analysis

The morning’s market activity shows pronounced volatility, particularly at the Lingfield meeting, which features heavily in both the steamer and drifter lists. The 2:00 race at Lingfield is a prime example, hosting a major steamer in Kimeko Glory and the day’s most significant drifter, Raintown. No single trainer dominates either list, suggesting the moves are horse-specific rather than a reflection of a stable being particularly “hot” or “cold”. Overall, the early market is demonstrating clear, decisive opinions on a number of runners, creating strong narratives of confidence and doubt.

This initial analysis of market sentiment must be contextualized by the structural changes to races caused by withdrawals.

——————————————————————————–

2. Non-Runners Overview

The withdrawal of key contenders can fundamentally reshape the competitive landscape of a race. This section identifies the most impactful non-runners, whose absence alters the betting market and creates new opportunities for the remaining field. Please note that the reason for withdrawal is not available in the provided data.

2.1. Most Impactful Withdrawals

3:35 Clonmel – Qualimita (FR)

The withdrawal of Qualimita is the most significant of the day. As the Evens favourite and the Spotlight selection, her absence completely changes the complexion of this beginners chase. Spotlight noted she was “dropped in class” and “may prove too strong”. Her removal opens the race up considerably, primarily for rivals Spotlight had identified as the main dangers: Glenashling, On Your Way, and He’s Gorgeous, who now face a much more attainable task.

12:05 Clonmel – Watty Show (IRE)

Originally priced at 100/30, Watty Show was a prominent contender in this maiden hurdle. The Spotlight verdict explicitly named her as one of the “main dangers” to the favourite, Justatan. Her withdrawal simplifies the race for the favourite and elevates the chances of the other noted danger, Mystic Malina, who now stands as a clearer alternative.

2:05 Clonmel – Spinola Bay

Spinola Bay, priced at 4/1, was a key runner in this handicap hurdle. The Spotlight verdict highlighted the horse as “interesting on handicap debut” for the powerful Gordon Elliott yard. While the preview noted a concern about a long absence, the horse’s potential was clear. This withdrawal removes a significant unknown quantity from the race, potentially benefiting the Spotlight’s tentative selection, Sheriffhill, and other considered runners like Roccabaker and Maciver.

The day’s race cards have been notably reshaped by these key withdrawals, adding another layer of complexity to our expert selections.

——————————————————————————–

3. Spotlight Tips Round-Up

This section consolidates the top selections from our Spotlight experts, providing a crucial baseline of professional opinion. This qualitative analysis helps to frame the quantitative data and market sentiment, identifying areas of strong consensus or potential value where opinions diverge.

3.1. Spotlight Selections (Naps)

Our experts have designated the following as their highest-confidence selections of the day:

• Trasna Na Pairce (3:05 Clonmel): “A dual course winner over hurdles TRASNA NA PAIRCE (nap) has plenty going for him here now that he steps up in trip…”

• Prince Quattro (12:30 Lingfield): “…the choice is four-time hurdles winner PRINCE QUATTRO (nap), who has been running well on the AW lately and who shaped last time as though a return to 2m would suit.”

• Livy’s Lad (1:22 Southwell): “LIVY’S LAD (nap) does not look harshly treated by a 5lb rise for last month’s C&D win and he could easily have a lot more to offer for his new stable.”

• Kirkdale (6:45 Newcastle): “KIRKDALE (nap) makes plenty of appeal with his two second-place finishes over C&D last month strongly suggesting he was handicapped to win.”

3.2. Selections Aligning with Market Confidence

There is a strong confluence of expert opinion and market money on several runners, suggesting a high degree of confidence from multiple sources.

• Staffordshire Knot (1:05 Clonmel): The Spotlight selection has seen strong market support, shortening from 5/4 into 10/11.

• Prince Quattro (12:30 Lingfield): The Spotlight nap has been backed from an early price of 7/2 into 15/8.

• Likealot (2:00 Lingfield): Identified as a “major player” by Spotlight and has been backed from 15/8 into 11/10.

3.3. Notable Divergences and Value Angles

In the 12:05 Adare Manor Opportunity Maiden Hurdle at Clonmel, a notable divergence exists. The Spotlight verdict is firmly behind Justatan, stating the horse “looks the part”. However, the TimeWise ratings place Mystic Malina (197) and Button Rock (192) well clear of Justatan (173). This clash between qualitative expert opinion and quantitative data modeling suggests the favourite may not represent clear value and that a potential value angle exists with the top-rated runners.

This highlights the importance of using data-driven ratings to challenge and complement traditional form analysis.

——————————————————————————–

4. TimeWise Top Two Rated

TimeWise ratings provide a quantitative, data-driven assessment of each horse’s prospects. This systematic analysis serves as a valuable tool to either confirm the prevailing narratives from the market and Spotlight tips or to challenge them, highlighting runners that the data suggests may be overpriced or undervalued. The following tables present the top two rated runners for each race, adjusted for any non-runners, to provide the most current data-driven assessment.

Clonmel – TimeWise Analysis

12:05 Adare Manor Opportunity Maiden Hurdle

Horse	TimeWise Total	Form & Suitability Note	Market/Tip Alignment
Mystic Malina	197	Point-to-point winner on soft ground who should be sharper for a recent hurdles run.	Spotlight ‘main danger’; top-rated by TimeWise.
Button Rock	192	Point-to-point placing is offset by weak hurdles form, making a high TimeWise rating questionable.	Contradiction: High TimeWise rating despite weak hurdles form.

12:35 William Hill Each Way Extra Challenge Series Handicap Hurdle

Horse	TimeWise Total	Form & Suitability Note	Market/Tip Alignment
No Big Deal	261	Gained a deserved win over C&D in October and did not get the best run last time out.	Consensus: Spotlight pick and top-rated on TimeWise.
Im Flattered	213	Appeared not to stay 2m4f last time and returns to a more suitable trip.	Negative indicator: Drifting in the market.

1:05 Jim Strang & Sons Kilsheelan (Peugeot) Hurdle

Horse	TimeWise Total	Form & Suitability Note	Market/Tip Alignment
French Dynamite	372	Class act: Munster National chase winner reverting to hurdles, a significant threat on figures.	Clash: Top-rated by TimeWise but Spotlight’s ‘main danger’ to the favourite.
Staffordshire Knot	351	Scored decisively in a Punchestown handicap nine days ago and should be thereabouts.	Strong consensus: Spotlight pick backed by significant market confidence.

1:35 Thanks To All For Your Support In 2025 (Q.R.) Maiden Hurdle

Horse	TimeWise Total	Form & Suitability Note	Market/Tip Alignment
Parnell Street	272	Bumper winner who produced a good second on hurdling debut at Wexford.	Mixed signals: Solid Spotlight claims but drifting in the market.
Cooladdi	239	Produced a solid effort when runner-up on hurdles debut at Roscommon.	Negative indicator: Major market drifter.

2:05 William Hill Each Way Extra Challenge Series Handicap Hurdle (Div I)

Horse	TimeWise Total	Form & Suitability Note	Market/Tip Alignment
Maciver	215	Course winner over fences who could improve for his recent seasonal reappearance and can’t be discounted.	Spotlight consideration; top-rated runner post-withdrawal.
True Destiny	205	Below best on return from a break last time and probably needs the track to dry out.	Market drifter; second-rated post-withdrawal.

2:35 William Hill Each Way Extra Challenge Series Handicap Hurdle (Div II)

Horse	TimeWise Total	Form & Suitability Note	Market/Tip Alignment
Spanish John	225	Solid effort on return to hurdling last time and runs off his last winning mark.	Positive alignment: Spotlight contender and top-rated by TimeWise.
The Little Yank	203	Ground concern: Capable veteran but may be hampered by today’s heavy ground.	Caveat: Spotlight threat but with a significant ground dependency.

3:05 Next Race Meeting January 8th Novice Handicap Chase

Horse	TimeWise Total	Form & Suitability Note	Market/Tip Alignment
One Last Tango	263	Jumping concern: Capable but prone to errors, which tempers enthusiasm for top rating.	No specific alignment.
Trasna Na Pairce	261	Dual course hurdles winner who should be helped by the step up in trip today.	Strong consensus: Spotlight nap with positive market support.

3:35 Clonmel Racecourse Supporters Club… Beginners Chase

Horse	TimeWise Total	Form & Suitability Note	Market/Tip Alignment
Glenashling	242	Ran a fine race for third on chasing debut and was second at Punchestown last time.	Major beneficiary: Now top-rated runner following withdrawal of favourite.
On Your Way	240	Has a big chance after an emphatic success at Fairyhouse just 11 days ago.	Key contender: Second-rated runner and noted as a threat by Spotlight.

Lingfield – TimeWise Analysis

11:30 Apprentice Handicap

Horse	TimeWise Total	Form & Suitability Note	Market/Tip Alignment
Blue Empress	224	Profile concern: Consistent placer but a long-standing maiden (0-17), making top rating a risk.	No specific alignment.
Groundsman	216	Ran well on stable debut and should go well despite potential competition for the lead.	Negative indicator: Significant market drifter.

12:00 Novice Stakes

Horse	TimeWise Total	Form & Suitability Note	Market/Tip Alignment
Shanty Baba	189	Major question mark: Top-rated despite folding tamely on debut, a clear data vs. form clash.	Data pick: Top-rated despite very poor debut run.
Banyan	184	Showed promise on debut 13 months ago and is the clear form pick on reappearance.	Strong consensus: Spotlight pick with significant market confidence.

12:30 Handicap

Horse	TimeWise Total	Form & Suitability Note	Market/Tip Alignment
Prince Quattro	267	Ran well in recent AW handicaps and shaped as if this longer trip would suit.	Maximum confidence: Spotlight nap, top-rated, and strong market steamer.
Sapphire Sirocco	239	Made it 11th time lucky over C&D last month and is considered off a 2lb higher mark.	Mixed signals: Spotlight second choice but drifting in the market.

1:00 Restricted Maiden Stakes

Horse	TimeWise Total	Form & Suitability Note	Market/Tip Alignment
Knight Of Glory	316	Ran well from a wide draw on his Chelmsford debut and that form has been boosted.	Strong consensus: Spotlight pick with positive market support.
Room Fourteen	277	Out of the frame in two novices but has shown ability and may improve.	No specific alignment.

1:30 Handicap

Horse	TimeWise Total	Form & Suitability Note	Market/Tip Alignment
Chico Dulce	266	Latest win came over this trip four weeks ago and has a liking for this track.	Negative indicator: Market drifter.
Quite Sweet	232	Showed improved form to win at Southwell last time and is respected despite a 6lb rise.	Spotlight second choice; second-rated on TimeWise.

2:00 Handicap

Horse	TimeWise Total	Form & Suitability Note	Market/Tip Alignment
Likealot	303	Placed in five of six handicaps and was a good second at Wolverhampton last time.	Strong consensus: Spotlight pick backed by significant market confidence.
Charlies Choice	259	Beaten only a head over 1m2f here last week and is high on the list from the same mark.	Clash: Strong TimeWise rating but drifting alarmingly in the market.

2:30 Handicap (Div I)

Horse	TimeWise Total	Form & Suitability Note	Market/Tip Alignment
Masqool	238	Three-time C&D winner who has run with credit since his last win in August.	Consensus: Spotlight pick and top-rated on TimeWise.
Muy Muy Loco	231	Got off the mark over C&D seven weeks ago and is a player if things pan out similarly.	Negative indicator: Market drifter.

3:00 Handicap (Div II)

Horse	TimeWise Total	Form & Suitability Note	Market/Tip Alignment
Shalfa	239	Made all to win at Brighton when last seen and won over C&D off this mark.	Clash: Spotlight pick but drifting alarmingly in the market.
Bownder	222	Most recent success came off 1lb higher but has been below par on his last two starts.	Positive indicator: Market steamer.

3:30 Handicap

Horse	TimeWise Total	Form & Suitability Note	Market/Tip Alignment
Roman Spring	258	In-form 5yo who made all over C&D last Tuesday and warrants respect under a penalty.	Positive indicator: Top-rated and a strong market steamer.
Alafdhal	243	Close second last week when bidding for a Wolverhampton double and remains in form.	Negative indicator: Market drifter.

——————————————————————————–

5. Summary Insight / Analyst Notes

This final section synthesizes the day’s intelligence into high-level, actionable takeaways, identifying the most compelling narratives across the meetings.

• The withdrawal of the heavily favoured Qualimita has fundamentally reshaped the 3:35 at Clonmel, transforming it from a likely one-horse race into a much more open and competitive betting heat for the remaining key dangers.

• Strong alignment between tips, ratings, and market money is evident in several key races. Runners like Prince Quattro (12:30 Lingfield) and Staffordshire Knot (1:05 Clonmel) are Spotlight selections, strong market steamers, and rate highly on TimeWise, indicating a powerful consensus.

• Note the significant divergence between Spotlight and TimeWise ratings in the Clonmel opener (12:05). Spotlight is confident in Justatan, but the data model strongly prefers Mystic Malina. This represents a classic clash of qualitative form analysis versus quantitative modeling and suggests the favourite may be vulnerable.

• Market volatility at Lingfield is a dominant theme, with the card producing multiple significant steamers and drifters. This suggests a highly fluid and opinionated market, creating potential for both risk and value for those who can accurately interpret the moves.