Date: 04 Dec 2024 | Track: Kempton Park (AW) | Time: 7.10pm Race: Unibet London Stayers’ Series Final Handicap (Class 2) Prize: £80,000 | Distance: 1m 7f 218y

The London Stayers’ Series Final is always a cracking contest, and tonight’s renewal at Kempton offers a fascinating puzzle. With a £80k pot on the line, intent is high across the board. However, using our framework, we can strip away the noise and focus on the raw data: specifically, the disparity between current Official Ratings (OR) and peak performance potential (RPR).

Here is the breakdown using the 7-Point Checklist and our Private Tissue pricing.

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1. The Checklist: 7-Point Analysis

We have filtered the field through the key performance indicators (KPIs) to identify where the true ability lies compared to the market view.

• 1. RPR (Racing Post Rating) Ceiling: The standout metric in this race is the “Well-In” potential. Zoran (104), Francesco Baracca (104), and Fair Dinkum (103) all possess peak RPRs vastly superior to their current marks.
• 2. Topspeed/Pace Dynamics: This looks set to be run at a sound clip. Sax Appeal, Sheradann, and Zoran all like to be prominent. If they cut each other’s throats (Pace Collapse scenario), it sets the race up perfectly for a closer.
• 3. Trainer Form: Emma Lavelle (Master Milliner, Zoran) is in red-hot form with a 100% Run-to-Form (RTF) rate in the last 14 days. This is a significant multiplier for Zoran’s chances.
• 4. Draw: Less critical over nearly 2 miles, but being trapped wide early can burn fuel.
• 5. Surface Suitability: Duke Of Oxford is the course specialist (4 wins at Kempton). The surface is no issue for Artisan Dancer either.
• 6. Class: Enemy is the class horse (OR 94) but is regressing. The emerging class act appears to be Duke Of Oxford, who won this final previously.
• 7. Weight/Handicap Mark: The bottom half of the field looks dangerously well-handicapped. The top weights are exposed; the bottom weights are improving or returning to form.

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2. The Calculations: “Well-In” & False Favorites

This section uses the data to calculate the raw advantage a horse has over the handicapper.

The “Well-In” Calculation (Peak RPR minus Current OR) A positive number indicates the horse has performed to a level significantly higher than their current mark implies.

• Fair Dinkum: 103 (RPR) – 70 (OR) = +33lb (Massive statistical edge)
• Francesco Baracca: 104 (RPR) – 72 (OR) = +32lb (Massive statistical edge)
• Zoran: 104 (RPR) – 78 (OR) = +26lb (Strong edge)
• Sax Appeal: 103 (RPR) – 86 (OR) = +17lb
• Artisan Dancer: 103 (RPR) – 85 (OR) = +18lb
• Duke Of Oxford: 106 (RPR) – 93 (OR) = +13lb

The “False Favorite” Check

• Duke Of Oxford: While he is the most likely winner based on course form, the math suggests he has less “wiggle room” with his rating (+13lb differential) compared to Francesco Baracca (+32lb). If the market prices Duke Of Oxford too short (e.g., 2/1), he becomes a poor value proposition despite his obvious chance.

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3. Private Tissue & Verdict

Based on the probability of the pace collapsing and the massive handicap advantages held by the lower-weighted horses, here is my Private Tissue.

The Private Tissue

Horse	Fair Odds (Decimal)	Fair Odds (Fractional)	Comment
Duke Of Oxford	4.50	7/2	The safe option. Course specialist, but offers little value margin.
Francesco Baracca	6.00	5/1	The Value Play. Huge RPR buffer (+32lb), suits the likely race shape.
Sax Appeal	6.50	11/2	Improver, but risks getting involved in a pace war.
Zoran	8.00	7/1	Trainer on fire (63% RTF). Massive price relative to ability figures.
Sheradann	9.00	8/1	Solid, but mark is stiffening.
Fair Dinkum	10.00	9/1	Thriving, but this is a step up in class.
Master Milliner	13.00	12/1	Past winner, but age and rating are against him.
Others	17.00+	16/1+

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The Verdict

The race sets up as a battle between established course form and hidden handicap ability. Duke Of Oxford is the rightful favourite based on his love for Kempton, but the prices likely won’t reflect the threat from the bottom weights.

The pace map suggests a strong gallop, which plays into the hands of a horse that can travel and finish. FRANCESCO BARACCA fits this profile perfectly. With a “Well-In” figure of +32lb and recent winning form on the AW, he represents the convergence of form and value.

ZORAN is the dark horse. With Emma Lavelle’s yard in flying form and a +26lb differential on his figures, he is a must-include for Each-Way purposes.

• Win Bet: Francesco Baracca (Take 5/1 or better)
• Next Best: Duke Of Oxford
• Each-Way “Dark Horse”: Zoran