This contest is absolutely dripping with early pace, and that alone reshuffles the deck. Several of these like to press on or sit handy, and on this track that often means one thing: they can cook each other. Hold-up horses with value marks suddenly become very live.

Let’s walk through the field as ranked.

---

1. Vitalline – The Standout Value Pick

Vitalline takes top spot and it’s not hard to see why. His last run was miles better than it looked: trapped wide, no daylight when he needed it, and still finished off with purpose. Off a basement mark and with a hold-up style tailor-made for a likely burn-up up front, he ticks nearly every strategic box.
Add in a trainer with an eye-catching record when sending just one runner to a flat meeting, and he becomes the horse with the most upside in the field.

---

2. Onemorenomore – The Penalised Improver

A recent Class 6 winner, he arrives well-in under a penalty before the handicapper catches up. He’s the highest-rated in the race and arrives in form, which counts for plenty at this level. The only slight question is whether he’ll be as effective if this collapses late—but he’s got enough quality to stay on the scene.

---

3. Bad Habits – Solid and Well-Set

He’s just run a career-best for the yard and is coming down the weights, which is always a dangerous combination. His preferred run style suits the projected race setup, and with Ruth Carr’s team in excellent touch, he’s a major player. If Vitalline hits trouble again, this lad could be the one sweeping through.

---

4. Tam Lin – A Smart Recent Winner

Another turning out under a penalty after scoring over C&D. It’s shrewd placement. The concern? He likes to race prominently, which could be a liability if this does boil over. But on raw recent form, he deserves respect.

---

5. Cill Mocheallog – Sneaky Each-Way Credentials

This horse has plummeted 26lb since joining the current yard and shaped better than the result last time. First-time blinkers are a clear signal of intent. He’s not bombproof, but at these weights and with that headgear angle, he’s not one to completely dismiss.

---

6. Edergole’s Gift – Reliable But Now Exposed

A C&D winner who’s found her level again. She’s consistent, the tongue-tie has helped, and she runs well here. The worry is that she looked stretched last time off a higher mark, and there’s little wiggle room left.

---

7. Nubough – The Course Specialist With Caveats

He loves Chelmsford and that alone keeps him interesting. But he’s had a break and the yard haven’t fired lately. If he returns fresh and sharp, he could outrun his position, but there are safer profiles.

---

8. Diligent Henry – Good Form, Bad Draw

He’s been running well but being parked in stall 12 around here is rough. Add his tendency to fade late and you suddenly have a very tough task. Not without ability—just poorly set today.

---

9. Toussarok – The Most Vulnerable Prominent Runner

He’s won twice this year and the stable is going well, but race shape is everything. His natural forward-going style puts him right in the teeth of the projected early battle. He may travel well early but looks likely to be one of the first under pressure.

---

10. Chloe’s Courage – Blinkers On But Still a Maiden

Lightweight, tries hard, headgear switched to blinkers… but she’s still a maiden and turned out quickly after a below-par run. Hard to build a strong case.

---

11. Respectable Jack – Too Many Red Flags

He can run well on a going day, but he’s slow away more often than not and arrives after a poor run. Needs a clean break and luck—and he rarely gets either.

---

12. Sold Out – Bottom of the Pile

Fails most of the core criteria, weak form, and the trainer isn’t firing. Hard to recommend in any circumstance.

---

Overall Race Picture

This race hinges on pace. The more you study it, the more it screams collapse. Horses who want to sit handy could be chasing shadows by the final furlong, while closers get the chance to pounce on softening leaders.

That’s exactly why Vitalline and Bad Habits rise to the top—they’re shaped for this exact scenario and carry marks that still offer value.
Meanwhile, Onemorenomore and Tam Lin must shoulder penalties, and the obviousness of their recent wins makes them less appealing if the market latches on.

It’s one of those handicaps where the numbers, the race shape, and the practical logic all point in the same direction.

If the leaders overcook it early—as they’re likely to—this could fall beautifully into the lap of a well-ridden closer.