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1. Doyen Quest – 8.5/10

Rank: First
Edge: Class + Tactical Control

Doyen Quest comes out on top because everything about the projected race shape plays into his hands.

He brings proper chasing form, already proven at Class 2 level, and he’s shown he can take pressure and still kick on—his RPR of 151 is joint-best in the field. Most importantly, he looks set to control the race from the front. With no confirmed pace challengers, he could easily slip into an uncontested lead, the same setup that produced that emphatic 10-length win last time.

His sectionals back it up too: top Finishing Speed Percentages in half his recent runs.

The one knock? He has to give weight away again. The 3lb penalty is real, and connections know they’re in deeper this time. But tactically, he’s the one everyone else has to worry about.

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2. Quebecois – 8.0/10

Rank: Second
Edge: Upside + Trainer Intent

Quebecois is the “could be anything” horse here.

He’s lightly raced over fences, shaped well on debut, and has every reason to improve. The wind op adds another layer of upside, and Paul Nicholls’ fingerprints are all over this race—four wins in the last decade and a very bullish tone around this horse. Nicholls even mentioned Quebecois in the same breath as high-quality stablemates like Stage Star. That’s not language he throws around casually.

He is worse off at the weights with Doyen Quest, which matters. But he’s the runner with the biggest room for a leap forward.

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3. Laurens Bay – 7.5/10

Rank: Third
Edge: Course Profile + Hidden Value

There’s a lot to like with Laurens Bay, especially the Sandown credentials. He’s proven he stays the stiff finish, and his recent chase debut showed a lovely rhythm and safe jumping style.

But the likely slow pace is a headache. He’s a hold-up horse who wants something to chase, and he won’t get that here unless tactics flip unexpectedly. His raw ability is there, but his run style doesn’t marry well with this setup.

The upside? He’s been a value machine, routinely underestimated by the market. Connections see him as a long-term project—and next season might be when he pops fully.

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4. Salver – 7.0/10

Rank: Fourth
Edge: Highest Hurdle Ability, Biggest Risk Profile

Salver is the classiest hurdler in the field on paper—Triumph Hurdle placed, 160 RPR, the whole package. Timeform love him and make him the forecast favourite.

But two factors go against him hard:

Ground: His trainer is very clear—he needs soft/heavy to show his best. Today’s Good to Soft is borderline at best.

Trip: Jumping from 17.5f to 3 miles is a massive stretch. His sectionals repeatedly show him emptying late. Doing that over a new, longer trip is a red flag.

He’s young and could improve, but the setup is all wrong.

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Final Word

The model says the race revolves around Doyen Quest, especially if he dictates from the front.
Quebecois is the main danger with the highest potential for a sudden jump.
Laurens Bay is your value angle but needs a different pace picture.
Salver has the historical numbers but faces too many Tier 1 negatives on the day.

If the race unfolds even remotely as expected, the rankings look justified.