Race: Best Odds On The Betfair Exchange Handicap Chase (Class 3) Conditions: 1m 7f 99y | Turf | Going: Good-Soft

The 1.10 at Sandown presents a classic punting conundrum: Do we back the “well-handicapped” potential of a novice, or the “exposed but proven” course form of the veteran?

I. The 7-Point Checklist

1. RPR vs. Official Rating (The “Well-in” Check)

• Northern Air: This is the key T1 variable. She runs off a Chase Mark of 108. Her Hurdles RPR is 130. If she can jump fences fluently, she is arguably 22lbs well-in. This is a massive theoretical advantage.
• Keep Running: Rated 129. His peak RPR is 139. He is running to his mark, not ahead of it.

2. Speed & Pace Map

• Setup: We have a small field (5 runners) and one designated pace angle. Keep Running is a confirmed front-runner.
• Risk: In a tactical 2m chase at Sandown, if Keep Running gets an easy lead, he can be hard to pass. However, the stiff uphill finish often catches out those who go too hard early.

3. Trainer Form & Intent

• Dan Skelton (Northern Air): The yard has won this specific race 3 times in the last 10 years. This is a high-intent “Target Race.”
• Nigel Twiston-Davies (Krak): The yard is operating at a 75% Run-To-Form rate. This makes Krak dangerous, though his profile is less “hidden” than the favourite.

4. Course Suitability

• Sandown Factor: The Railway Fences require rhythm. Keep Running has 3 wins at this trip and knows the track. Northern Air is a debutant over these fences—this is her biggest risk.

5. Ground & Conditions

• Good-Soft: Suits all confirmed runners. No negative variables here.

6. Market Signals

• Northern Air: Shortening (2/1). The “Smart Money” is arriving early.
• Keep Running: Drifting (5/2 ->). The market doubts his ability to concede 21lbs to the mare.

7. Equipment & Physicals

• Northern Air: Tongue strap (t) applied.
• Coup De Coeur: Second run after a break. Historically a peak performance window for many chasers.

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II. The Calculations: Spotting the “False Favourite”

Here we apply the Value Delta to see who is mispriced.

The “Well-In” Calculation:

• Northern Air (OR 108): Potential RPR 130. Delta: +22.
• Keep Running (OR 129): Current RPR ~130-135. Delta: +1 to +6.

The “False Favourite” Check: While Northern Air is the favourite, is she a false one? The data says No. The disparity in ratings is too large to ignore. The False Value lies with Keep Running. He is priced as a co-favorite based on past glory (Course Form), but the weight concession (giving 21lbs to a 130-rated animal) is statistically a massive hill to climb.

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III. Private Tissue & Verdict

My pricing model focuses heavily on the T1: Ratings Disparity and T1: Trainer Intent.

Horse	Private Tissue (My Price)	Market Price	Value Status
Northern Air	6/4 (2.50)	2/1 (3.00)	Value Bet
Keep Running	7/2 (4.50)	5/2 (3.50)	Poor Value (Underpriced)
Krak	4/1 (5.00)	3/1 (4.00)	Poor Value
Coup De Coeur	10/1 (11.00)	9/1 (10.00)	Neutral

Export to Sheets

Final Recommendation

The Bet: Northern Air. The combination of a lenient mark (OR 108), the Skelton team’s historical dominance in this specific race (3 wins in 10 years), and the “Steam” in the market makes her the logical selection. The 22lb theoretical advantage covers a multitude of sins regarding her lack of chase experience.

The Danger: Keep Running. If Northern Air makes mistakes at the Railway Fences, the veteran will capitalise. However, at the prices, he is to be opposed.