The 2.55 Handicap Chase shapes up as a cracking little puzzle: nine runners, a blend of hardened campaigners and progressive chasers, and a race where the numbers genuinely separate the field. Using the framework — factors (Form, Ratings, Trip, Pace, Connections) doing the heavy lifting — here’s the full picture.

The Big Two: Hidden History vs Champagne Twist

At the top sits Hidden History, a horse who has done everything right this season. His recent Racing Post Rating of 136 versus an Official Rating of 127 tells you he’s still ahead of the handicapper, and the Skelton team are red-hot. Combine that with Harry Skelton’s superb strike-rate on chase favourites and you’ve got a profile that screams reliability.

But there’s a twist — literally.

Champagne Twist pushes him close. He has an equally strong RPR/OR disparity (137 vs 129) and meets Hidden History 2lb better off than when the pair last clashed. That small swing could matter late on. Add in proven Grade 3 course form and you get a genuine threat to the favourite, and arguably the value play.

If Hidden History is the polished, dependable machine, Champagne Twist is the same model with a lighter load. It could go either way.

Kelce – The Wildcard with Upside

Rated third, Kelce is the interesting one for punters who like a bit of leverage against the handicap. His RPR of 139 dwarfs an OR of 117 — the biggest disparity in the field. He’s a natural front-runner and may well get the race run to suit.

If he gets an uncontested lead, he becomes dangerous. If he clouts one or gets pressured, he’s vulnerable. High-risk, high-reward territory.

In d’Or – Classy but Burdened

In d’Or is the top-weight for a reason. His OR of 133 confirms he’s the class act, and he’s shown it around this course and distance. But giving weight all round in a competitive 3-mile chase is a tall order, and the numbers say the load could tell in the last half-mile.

He’ll be there or thereabouts, but something lighter might just have more gears late on.

Middle Rankings: Java Point & New Order

Java Point brings rock-solid C&D credentials and is only a pound higher than his winning mark here. For an exposed 10-year-old, that’s ideal — he doesn’t have much improvement left, but he doesn’t need any if things fall right.

New Order, meanwhile, arrives with three wins from his last four and a yard operating at a 67% rtf rate. But he’s quirky — keen-going, right-leaning, tail-flashing — and quirks can get magnified in a race where the pace might be strong.

He has ability; you just can’t trust he’ll show all of it.

The Chasers and Wildcards: Welcom To Cartries, Ideal Des Bordes, Tommy The Tank

Welcom To Cartries has dipped his toe in higher-grade company and comes from a yard that does well with chase debutants and freshened horses. Headgear coming off suggests a shift in tactics or mindset, but he needs to bounce back from a poor run over fences last time.

Ideal Des Bordes is one of the most interesting numbers horses. An RPR of 142 makes him look thrown in off 118, but he’s been out of form for a while. First-time blinkers are a clear yard signal of intent — if they work, he outruns his odds. If they don’t, he won’t be sighted.

At the bottom, Tommy The Tank makes his chase debut. The yard’s level-stakes profit in chases is eye-catching, but he jumps right, and this is a big ask first time over fences. Raw talent isn’t the problem — experience is.

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How the Race Might Unfold

Expect a steady pace. Kelce and Tommy The Tank can force it; several others prefer to track rather than dictate.

That’s not ideal for Hidden History, who’s usually ridden with patience. A steady gallop doesn’t kill his chance, but it certainly doesn’t enhance it. Champagne Twist, on the other hand, may enjoy the steady tempo — he travels sweetly and picks up well.

If Kelce gets loose, he could turn it into a tactical ambush. If he’s hassled, the closers take over.

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Final Verdict

1. Hidden History – 9.5/10
Still improving, still well-in, and handled by a top team. The benchmark.

2. Champagne Twist – 9.0/10
Better off at the weights today and the one horse who can genuinely reverse the form. Major player.

3. Kelce – 8.5/10
Front-running danger, huge RPR upside, but needs things to go his way.

4. In d’Or – 7.5/10
Solid class, but top-weight may be his undoing late on.

Value Angle: Champagne Twist
Pace Play: Kelce
Most Well-In on Paper: Ideal Des Bordes (if the blinkers work — a big “if”)