Handicaps at Dundalk are rarely straightforward, but when you run the field through a deep-structure model, the picture becomes far clearer. This method puts major weight on Form, Fitness, Weight, and Pace—the factors that decide races on the Polytrack more often than not.

Tonight’s 8.30 has a fascinating mix: rock-solid AW performers, a couple of high-risk returners, an unexposed Flat runner with genuine upside, and a tactical setup that leans heavily on pace efficiency. Here’s how the model scored each horse.

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1. Quatre Bras (No. 7) – 9.0/10

The Benchmark Performer

Quatre Bras sits comfortably on top of the rankings thanks to his bulletproof AW record (14121) and his ability to quicken off any tempo. If this race develops into the expected slow pace → sharp dash, he’s the one whose style matches the scenario best.

He carries proven C&D form, arrives in rhythm, and earns the top Timeform rating. Everything about today’s setup fits him.

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2. Gentleman Joe (No. 4) – 8.5/10

The Tactical Gift

Gentleman Joe has the big advantage the others wish they had: a 10lb claim on a horse already in good form. Add in his tactical positioning—likely to sit handy in a race short on pace—and he’s set up perfectly.

He doesn’t need to improve. He just needs the race to play out as expected, and all signs say it will.

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3. Gaucher (No. 5) – 8.0/10

The Untapped One

Gaucher is the wildcard with serious potential. A 150-rated hurdler by Frankel, he’s unexposed on the Flat and shaped well enough on debut over 2m before the trip found him out.

Dropping back to 1m4f, and getting Colin Keane in the saddle, suggests stable intent. The model rates him highly because he has room to improve—something most of this field can’t claim.

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4. Lady Lunette (No. 2) – 7.0/10

The Reliable Contender

Lady Lunette brings the right profile: recent C&D win, a career-best performance last time, and a clear handle on conditions. The headwind is the 4lb rise and the fact she now carries 9-10, which dents her tactical edge in a slow-run race.

She’ll run her race, but she may need more than she’s shown so far.

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5. Tyson Fury (No. 1) – 6.0/10

The Class Horse With a Huge Asterisk

There’s no doubting his ability—past RPRs over 100, a high official rating, and strong historical sectionals. But nothing in the model hits harder than a 17-month layoff (T1 fitness risk). If he returns anywhere near peak fitness, he’s thrown in. But most horses don’t.

The market will tell the story.

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6. Old Peculier (No. 6) – 5.5/10

The Fitness Gamble

A hat-trick of Dundalk wins shows he’s capable here, and his trainer is in sparkling form. The problem? A 20-month absence, which is even more severe than Tyson Fury’s.

The model respects his past but can’t ignore the layoff.

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7. Crypto Force (No. 3) – 4.0/10

Needs a Reinvention

His recent runs make grim reading—weakening performances, fading late, inconsistent application. Now changing yards, he’s effectively a reset project. The model puts him a long way off the others until he proves otherwise.

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Key Takeaways

Pace Will Decide Plenty

With a likely slow early tempo, the race swings towards efficient quickeners and horses positioned near the front. That boosts Gentleman Joe and keeps Quatre Bras in his comfort zone.

Fitness Risks Are Enormous

Tyson Fury and Old Peculier both have the raw figures to win—but the framework is brutal with long layoffs, and rightly so.

Gaucher Is the Sleeper

He has upside the rest don’t. If he takes to this trip, he could be the one who shakes up the established order.