This document provides a detailed, data-driven analysis of the day’s National Hunt racing cards at Punchestown and Uttoxeter. By focusing on the top-rated contenders according to the TimeWise Master Ratings, we aim to synthesize form, expert commentary, and key statistics to identify the key opportunities for the day.

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1. 11.50 Punchestown – Matchbook Betting Exchange Rated Novice Chase

This rated novice chase opens the card, providing an early test for chasers who are still learning their craft but have already shown a degree of ability. Contests like this often feature a mix of progressive young horses and more experienced types. A clean round of jumping and the ability to handle the testing heavy ground will be paramount for success.

TimeWise Master Top Two Selections

1. Its Bilbo (297)

2. St Faz (268)

Form and Profile Summary

Its Bilbo

A winner of a maiden hurdle at this course on his Irish debut last year, Its Bilbo was subsequently tested at Grade 2 level, finishing second on one occasion. He made a solid start to his chasing career when finishing fourth at Navan behind Kopek Des Bordes, in a race that is already providing form clues. With that initial experience over fences, he is expected to be a leading contender.

St Faz

Formerly with the late Edward O’Grady, for whom he won three times including over fences, St Faz brings plenty of experience to this contest. However, his recent performances have been unconvincing. A significant positive is the exceptional current form of his powerful new stable, which could spark a revival.

Key Race Statistics

• Age Groups: 5yo 1-2-4, 6yo 1-0-9, 7yo 0-0-1, 8yo 0-1-1

• Fate of Favourites: Favourites have a mixed record, with finishing positions of 1st and 6th in the last two renewals.

• Notable Trainer Records (w-pl-r): James Joseph Mangan 1-0-1, Gordon Elliott 0-1-1, Henry De Bromhead 0-1-4, Thomas Gibney 0-1-1

Assessment of Top Two Contenders

This contest pits the potential of Its Bilbo against the experience of St Faz. Its Bilbo, a 4-year-old receiving weight from his elders, made a highly encouraging chasing debut at Navan and is open to significant improvement. In contrast, St Faz has been out of form recently, but the backing of a stable in scintillating form cannot be ignored. On balance, Its Bilbo’s promising profile and proven course form over hurdles give him the stronger prospects.

Spotlight Verdict

Jimmy Mangan won this race with Spillane’s Tower two years ago and has a strong contender in Pure Steel. However, slight preference is for the 4yo ITS BILBO, a useful juvenile hurdler who can show the benefit of his first outing over fences at Navan. This trip is probably shorter than ideal for Harvard Guy and Chance Another One.

Our analysis now moves to the day’s first beginners chase at Punchestown.

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2. 12.20 Punchestown – Irish Stallion Farms EBF Beginners Chase

A beginners chase over a demanding trip of 2 miles and 7 furlongs, this race will be a true test of stamina, especially on heavy ground. The field is composed of horses embarking on their chasing careers, many of whom have shown significant ability over hurdles. Success will require both sound jumping and proven staying power.

TimeWise Master Top Two Selections

1. Argento Boy (327)

2. Ballygunner Castle (325)

Form and Profile Summary

Argento Boy

A progressive hurdler last season, Argento Boy secured a wide-margin maiden victory at this course on heavy ground before being tested in three Grade 1 events. Although he was outclassed at that level, his form suggests he possesses similar hurdling ability to his stablemate Ballygunner Castle, making him a fascinating contender on his chase debut.

Ballygunner Castle

This gelding also boasts a strong hurdles profile comparable to Argento Boy, having completed a hat-trick of wins in 2024 before placing in Graded company. He represents a powerful stable with an excellent record in this race, and the booking of top jockey Paul Townend is a significant indicator of the stable’s confidence.

Key Race Statistics

• Age Groups: 5yo 0-1-2, 6yo 0-1-5, 7yo 2-0-5, 8yo 0-1-3

• Fate of Favourites: Favourites have won the last two renewals of this race.

• Notable Trainer Records (w-pl-r): W P Mullins 2-0-3, Gordon Elliott 0-1-2, Henry De Bromhead 0-2-2

Assessment of Top Two Contenders

The TimeWise ratings highlight the two Willie Mullins-trained contenders as the clear standouts, and it is difficult to separate them on their hurdles form. Both lack chase experience, which is a slight concern, but they hail from a stable renowned for producing top-class chasers. The crucial factor may be the jockey booking; Paul Townend’s decision to ride Ballygunner Castle gives him a narrow, but decisive, edge over his stablemate.

Spotlight Verdict

Willie Mullins won this with the ill-fated Dancing City last year and also took the 2023 race with the useful Embassy Gardens. He saddles four runners and may collect with BALLYGUNNER CASTLE, a hurdler of much the same standard as stablemate Argento Boy. Paul Townend’s mount may have most to fear from the Gordon Elliott-trained 4yo Kurasso Blue.

Next, we turn our attention to a large-field maiden hurdle.

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3. 12.50 Punchestown – Matchbook Backs Irish Racing Maiden Hurdle

With a large field of 19 runners, this maiden hurdle presents a classic puzzle for analysts. The race features a blend of runners with established form, who may be somewhat exposed, and lightly-raced newcomers with promising pedigrees or point-to-point form. Identifying those with the scope for significant improvement will be the key to solving this contest.

TimeWise Master Top Two Selections

1. Fillyoureye (306)

2. Whatsanotheryear (251)

Form and Profile Summary

Fillyoureye

Boasting an excellent pedigree as a half-brother to the smart mare Colreevy, this five-year-old showed significant promise on his hurdling debut. He handled very soft ground well when chasing home an odds-on favorite over this trip at Fairyhouse, an experience that should leave him perfectly poised for this assignment.

Whatsanotheryear

This six-year-old has more experience, having placed second in a Clonmel maiden hurdle last year. His two recent runs over a shorter two-mile trip were creditable, and the return to this longer distance is expected to suit. He sets a solid, if not spectacular, standard for the less-exposed runners to aim at.

Key Race Statistics

• Age Groups: 5yo 1-4-18, 6yo 0-0-7, 7yo 1-0-3

• Fate of Favourites: The market leaders have a solid record, with one win and one second-place finish in the last two renewals.

• Notable Trainer Records (w-pl-r): W P Mullins 1-0-3, Henry De Bromhead 0-2-2

Assessment of Top Two Contenders

This is a classic matchup between potential and proven form. Whatsanotheryear is race-fit and his previous efforts give him a solid chance, with the step up in trip a likely plus. However, the profile of Fillyoureye is far more compelling. His strong breeding, coupled with a highly encouraging debut run, suggests he possesses a level of ability that his rivals may struggle to match. He looks like a potential winner with scope for significant progression.

Spotlight Verdict

Winner of a summer bumper, FILLYOUREYE coped with soft ground when runner-up on his hurdling debut. He can go one better in a race in which the standard among the more experienced runners is set by the 117-rated Whatsanotheryear and the 112-rated Zanoosh. The long-absent Hens Tooth could feature, along with American Jukebox, off for ten months.

We now shift our focus to the first race from the Uttoxeter card.

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4. 1.00 Uttoxeter – Support The Injured Jockeys Fund ‘Chasing Excellence’ Beginners’ Chase

This beginners’ chase features a small field of just three, which is likely to result in a tactical affair. With fewer rivals to worry about, jumping proficiency and the ability to quicken at the right time will be the key attributes that separate the winner from the rest.

TimeWise Master Top Two Selections

1. Fingle Bridge (346)

2. Phantomofthepoints (336)

Form and Profile Summary

Fingle Bridge

A classy hurdler who won three times, including a Listed race, Fingle Bridge made a very eye-catching debut over fences at Exeter behind Lulamba, a winner who has since impressed again. Though beaten, he was never in a position to challenge but the step up to this longer trip is expected to unlock considerable improvement, and he sets a very high standard.

Phantomofthepoints

While a useful hurdler in his own right, he was considered inferior to Fingle Bridge in that discipline. He lacks experience over fences, having failed to complete in two point-to-point runs, and his best form has come over three miles, suggesting this trip may be sharper than ideal.

Assessment of Top Two Contenders

Fingle Bridge holds all the aces in this contest. He was the superior hurdler, his chase debut was full of promise, and this step up in trip looks ideal. Phantomofthepoints, conversely, has questions to answer regarding both his chasing experience and the suitability of this trip. All evidence points to Fingle Bridge having a decisive advantage and he should be very difficult to beat.

Spotlight Verdict

This looks all about FINGLE BRIDGE, who was the best of these over hurdles and his chase debut behind Lulamba was very likeable. He promises to be better again at this trip, whereas Phantomofthepoints probably needs 3m.

The action now returns to Punchestown for a quality mares’ novice hurdle.

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5. 1.20 Punchestown – Matchbook 50:50 Graduation Series Mares Novice Hurdle (Listed Race)

The awarding of Listed status ensures a high-quality field for this mares’ novice hurdle. The race attracts contenders with smart bumper and Flat form who are now transitioning to a career over obstacles. This contest provides an excellent platform to assess emerging talent and see which of these promising mares can take the step up to a higher level of competition.

TimeWise Master Top Two Selections

1. Switch From Diesel (314)

2. Amen Kate (313)

Form and Profile Summary

Switch From Diesel

This mare was a smart performer in bumpers, winning three times and twice finishing runner-up in Graded events behind the top-class Bambino Fever. She demonstrated her versatility by winning a maiden on the Flat at the Curragh on heavy ground in October. While she was defeated on her hurdling debut at Navan, her overall class suggests she is capable of significant improvement.

Amen Kate

Also a performer with credible bumper form, Amen Kate made a pleasing start over hurdles when third at Listowel. She then had a straightforward task to win a Galway maiden last time out. Although she is open to improvement, her bumper form when compared to the top selection suggests she has a bit to find.

Key Race Statistics

• Age Groups: 4yo 0-3-7, 5yo 6-4-23, 6yo 0-2-10, 7yo 0-0-3, 8yo 0-0-2

• Fate of Favourites: Favourites have a mixed record, with finishing positions of 1st, 3rd, 4th, 3rd, 1st, and 1st in the last six renewals.

• Notable Trainer Records (w-pl-r): Gordon Elliott 1-3-8, Henry De Bromhead 1-1-5

Assessment of Top Two Contenders

The TimeWise ratings have these two mares almost inseparable, but their bumper careers tell a clearer story. Switch From Diesel achieved a higher level of form in that sphere, competing in Graded company, and has since proven her class with a win on the Flat. While Amen Kate is a promising hurdler, Switch From Diesel’s proven top-level bumper form gives her the potential to be a class above her rivals here as she gains more experience over obstacles.

Spotlight Verdict

Judged on her form in bumpers, SWITCH FROM DIESEL (nap) can prosper on the novice hurdling scene. She can atone for a Navan defeat, when inexperience may have been a factor. Echoing Silence is the obvious danger on the strength of an emphatic Cork win. Chosen Comrade is defending an unbeaten record and has to be taken seriously despite being junior to all five rivals.

We head back to Uttoxeter for a conditional jockeys’ handicap.

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6. 1.30 Uttoxeter – TGF Construction Christmas Bonanza Conditional Jockeys’ Handicap Hurdle

This handicap hurdle is restricted to conditional jockeys, adding an extra layer of complexity to the analysis. The relative inexperience of the riders can often lead to unpredictably run races, making horse temperament and straightforwardness valuable assets. Over this staying trip of nearly three miles, a horse who travels well and responds generously for their rider will have a significant advantage.

TimeWise Master Top Two Selections

1. Carismatic Soldier (308)

2. Oh My Johnny (247)

Form and Profile Summary

Carismatic Soldier

A winner of a 2-mile novice hurdle at Chepstow on heavy ground, Carismatic Soldier made a very encouraging handicap debut when finishing a rallying third in a Class 3 event at Wetherby over 2m5f. That performance suggested he is now ready for this step up to a longer trip, and he remains a respected contender.

Oh My Johnny

A winner of the maiden hurdle on this card twelve months ago, he followed up with a handicap win at Hereford off a 3lb higher mark. He was below his best in two subsequent starts but is entitled to be sharper for his recent comeback run. The trip should be within his compass.

Key Race Statistics

• Age Groups: 5yo 1-0-5, 6yo 3-1-7, 7yo 0-2-8, 8yo 1-4-9, 9yo 0-1-3, 10yo 0-0-1, 11yo 0-0-2, 12yo 0-0-1

• Fate of Favourites: The market leader has an excellent record, with four wins and a second place in the last five renewals.

• Notable Trainer Records (w-pl-r): Olly Murphy 1-1-2

Assessment of Top Two Contenders

Carismatic Soldier presents a compelling profile as a progressive young hurdler who looks poised to improve for this step up in distance. His recent handicap debut was a strong effort in a higher grade. In contrast, Oh My Johnny needs to bounce back from a below-par reappearance and prove he retains his old ability. The top-rated horse’s progressive profile and readiness for this stamina test make him the clear choice.

Spotlight Verdict

On the back of an encouraging handicap debut and with today’s longer trip likely to suit, CARISMATIC SOLDIER (nap) could take some beating. Jolie Baie has more favourable ground here than on her comeback run and she’s second choice ahead of Oh My Johnny.

The focus now returns to a maiden hurdle at Punchestown.

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7. 1.50 Punchestown – Irish Stallion Farms EBF Maiden Hurdle

This maiden hurdle features several well-regarded prospects from Ireland’s leading stables. In races of this nature, previous form in bumpers and point-to-points often serves as the most reliable guide to a horse’s raw ability. A promising performance on a horse’s first start over hurdles is also a powerful indicator of future success.

TimeWise Master Top Two Selections

1. Newbrook Diamond (293)

2. Espresso Milan (264)

Form and Profile Summary

Newbrook Diamond

A winner of his second point-to-point start, Newbrook Diamond was subsequently purchased for £75,000. He made an excellent start to his career under rules when finishing second on his hurdling debut at Naas, pulling well clear of the third horse. Representing a stable in exceptional form, he holds an obvious chance to go one better.

Espresso Milan

Formerly trained by Fergal O’Brien, he showed good form in three bumper runs, culminating in a respectable seventh at the Punchestown festival. That form has been well advertised since by the eighth-placed Sticktotheplan (now a 142-rated hurdler), and he is an interesting contender now switching to hurdles for a new top stable.

Key Race Statistics

• Age Groups: 5yo 0-2-11, 6yo 1-0-2, 8yo 0-0-1

• Notable Trainer Records (w-pl-r): W P Mullins 1-0-2

Assessment of Top Two Contenders

This is a fascinating clash between two promising types. Espresso Milan’s bumper form is strong, but he is making his hurdling debut. Newbrook Diamond has already shown a high level of ability over obstacles with a superb debut run, finishing clear of the rest. That proven hurdles form, combined with the fact his trainer Gordon Elliott is in “brilliant form”, gives Newbrook Diamond a significant edge.

Spotlight Verdict

Gordon Elliott’s brilliant form is the clinching factor in selecting last month’s Naas second NEWBROOK DIAMOND over the Mullins pair in a race that can be narrowed to three with some confidence. Blue Velvet appeals more on bumper form than the former Fergal O’Brien-trained Espresso Milan, who is open to improvement.

Next, we analyze a maiden hurdle from Uttoxeter that appears to have a clear standout.

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8. 2.00 Uttoxeter – Camburg Maiden Hurdle

This maiden hurdle appears to revolve around one horse who brings a significantly higher level of form to the table. Based on his bumper performances, Baron Noir sets a formidable standard, and the primary challenge for the other runners will be to bridge that considerable class gap.

TimeWise Master Top Two Selections

1. Baron Noir (289)

2. Bobbys Nelson (260)

Form and Profile Summary

Baron Noir

His bumper form from last season is impressive for a race of this calibre. He made his hurdling debut at Warwick and was a 3-length runner-up, likely encountering a very smart prospect. With that experience under his belt and having finished ahead of useful rivals, this looks like an excellent opportunity for him to get off the mark.

Bobbys Nelson

A consistent performer, Bobbys Nelson has finished second in a point-to-point, a bumper, and most recently, a novice hurdle at Ffos Las a month ago. On that occasion, he gave the odds-on favourite a real test. While he needs to find more to trouble the favourite, he looks a very solid candidate to finish in the places.

Key Race Statistics

• Age Groups: 3yo 0-0-1, 4yo 2-7-47, 5yo 5-8-40, 6yo 2-2-16, 7yo 0-1-5, 9yo 0-0-1

• Fate of Favourites: The market leader has a strong record, with finishing positions of 2nd, 1st, 1st, 4th, 3rd, 0, 1st, 1st, and 1st in the last nine renewals.

• Notable Trainer Records (w-pl-r): Olly Murphy 3-1-9, Dan Skelton 2-1-6, Philip Hobbs & Johnson White 1-0-2, David Pipe 0-1-2

Assessment of Top Two Contenders

Baron Noir presents a formidable challenge to his rivals. His bumper form is of a high standard, and his hurdling debut was full of promise against a potentially top-class opponent. While Bobbys Nelson is a consistent and likeable type who ran well on his latest start, he is explicitly noted as needing to improve to trouble the favourite. Baron Noir is the clear and logical selection.

Spotlight Verdict

There’s no temptation to see past BARON NOIR despite him coming up short when odds-on for his hurdling debut. The Warwick winner could be very good. Bobby’s Nelson is the standout alternative after giving the hot favourite a fright at Ffos Las. Up To Trix should have a future and his yard has done well in this maiden.

Attention now shifts back to Punchestown for a tricky hurdle race.

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9. 2.20 Solo Arte – An Irish Art Gallery At Punchestown Hurdle

This hurdle presents a complex puzzle for punters, with several contenders returning to this discipline after recent campaigns on the Flat or over fences. Assessing the current well-being and motivation of these runners is challenging, making it difficult to weigh the different form lines against each other.

TimeWise Master Top Two Selections

1. Charlus (294)

2. Plontier (286)

Form and Profile Summary

Charlus

A winner of a maiden hurdle at Naas last season, Charlus subsequently disappointed in the Triumph Hurdle at Cheltenham. He has since posted several fine efforts in defeat on the Flat over the summer. He appears to be the stable’s first choice, judged by jockey bookings, and commands respect on his return to hurdles.

Plontier

This stablemate of Charlus ran respectably in a Grade 2 novice hurdle last season. More recently, he has turned in two solid performances in valuable Flat handicaps. This indicates he is in good form, and he warrants consideration despite being the apparent second-string from the yard.

Key Race Statistics

• Age Groups: 4yo 1-1-4, 5yo 0-0-3, 6yo 0-1-3, 7yo 0-0-1, 8yo 0-0-1, 9yo 1-1-2

• Fate of Favourites: The market leaders have a strong record, with one win and one second-place finish in the last two renewals.

• Notable Trainer Records (w-pl-r): W P Mullins 2-0-4

Assessment of Top Two Contenders

Both leading contenders hail from the powerful Willie Mullins stable and bring strong recent Flat form into this race. Charlus’s efforts over the summer have been commendable, while Plontier has shown his well-being in competitive handicaps. The deciding factor could be the jockey booking; Paul Townend’s presence aboard Charlus is a strong signal that he is the stable’s primary hope, giving him the marginal edge.

Spotlight Verdict

There are ifs and buts about all of these. Perhaps JIGORO can return to winning ways with cheekpieces added, reverting to this discipline having run respectably chasing last time. Charlus was poor in the Triumph Hurdle but has run well on the Flat in defeat since so is respected, as is his stablemate Plontier.

We return to Uttoxeter for a competitive handicap chase.

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10. 2.30 Avonside Supplies & Etex Handicap Chase

This handicap chase is a competitive event featuring a mix of profiles. It pits lightly-raced chasers with the potential for significant improvement against more seasoned, exposed campaigners. The key to solving this race is determining whether the unexposed potential outweighs the solid, but limited, form of the more experienced horses.

TimeWise Master Top Two Selections

1. Sole Solution (309)

2. Ski Lodge (261)

Form and Profile Summary

Sole Solution

A lightly-raced hurdler, Sole Solution signed off last season in fine style with back-to-back wins, including a handicap victory at Sandown on heavy ground. He has the profile of a horse who should make a good chaser but returns from a 311-day absence for a stable that is currently struggling for winners.

Ski Lodge

A winner of a 3-mile maiden hurdle at Haydock on soft ground, Ski Lodge appeared to find the trip too sharp on his subsequent handicap debut. He is an interesting prospect as he now makes his chasing debut over a distance that should be much more suitable.

Key Race Statistics

• Age Groups: 7yo 1-0-4, 8yo 0-0-3, 9yo 0-2-2

Assessment of Top Two Contenders

This contest presents a choice between two horses making their chase debuts. Sole Solution has strong hurdles form but faces a long layoff and represents a yard that is out of form, which are significant negatives. Ski Lodge, on the other hand, is moving up to a trip that should suit him perfectly. As the spotlight notes, he “could have done with a stiffer stamina test on handicap debut,” making his return to three miles for this chase debut a compelling angle. His profile presents a more compelling betting opportunity.

Spotlight Verdict

If finding some fluency on his first run over fences then SKI LODGE could be the answer over a more favourable trip than last time. Sole Solution brings plenty of potential to his chasing career and he might be the danger, for all that his yard is struggling for winners. Madaket would have a chance if brushing aside his disappointing run at Exeter.

The final stretch of the day’s racing begins with a staying handicap hurdle at Punchestown.

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11. 2.50 Punchestown – Matchbook Best Odds On Festive Racing Handicap Hurdle (Div I)

The first division of this handicap hurdle is run over a grueling three miles on heavy ground. This will be a thorough test of stamina and resilience. The winner will need to be a dour stayer who can handle the attritional conditions and see out the trip strongly when others have cried enough.

TimeWise Master Top Two Selections

1. Cosmo Renfro (219)

2. Yoursimplythebest (217)

Form and Profile Summary

Cosmo Renfro

A dual winner over hurdles for his previous yard, this gelding bounced back from two poor efforts to finish a remote second at Limerick on his first start for his new trainer. While that was a step in the right direction, he will need to improve again to be competitive here.

Yoursimplythebest

After showing little in maiden hurdles, this five-year-old has shown improved form in his last two starts, finishing third in handicaps over 2m4f at Sligo and this course. He should be competitive off an unchanged handicap mark, provided he proves his stamina for this longer trip.

Key Race Statistics

• Age Groups: 4yo 0-0-2, 5yo 1-4-11, 6yo 1-1-23, 7yo 0-2-9, 8yo 1-1-6, 9yo 0-1-4, 10yo 0-0-1, 11yo 0-0-1, 12yo 0-0-1

• Fate of Favourites: The market leader has a strong record here, with two wins and a third place in the last three renewals.

• Notable Trainer Records (w-pl-r): Gavin Cromwell 1-0-1, P J Rothwell 1-0-2, A J Martin 0-1-3, Brian M McMahon 0-1-2, D E Fitzgerald 0-1-1

Assessment of Top Two Contenders

The top two in the ratings present contrasting profiles. Cosmo Renfro needs to build on a modest stable debut, whereas Yoursimplythebest comes into the race in good form. The latter’s two recent placed efforts are solid credentials, and while the three-mile trip is an unknown, his current form makes him the more appealing proposition of the two, assuming his stamina holds out.

Spotlight Verdict

Sent off a well-backed favourite at Fairyhouse over 2m4f last time, TEDS CORNER failed to land those wagers but might get the money back raised in trip now. Yoursimplythebest has been third over 2m4f the last twice and can go well if staying this trip. Take Chance is unproven on this ground but has a chance if handling it.

We now turn to the penultimate race from Uttoxeter.

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12. 3.00 Uttoxeter – Pektron Handicap Hurdle

This 2-mile handicap hurdle has an open feel, with a difficult mix of form lines to assess. The field includes unexposed contenders making their handicap debuts after long absences, alongside more seasoned rivals who have recent runs under their belts. Weighing the potential of the former against the race-fitness of the latter is the primary challenge.

TimeWise Master Top Two Selections

1. Hara Kiri (309)

2. Authodidacte (291)

Form and Profile Summary

Hara Kiri

A lightly-raced eight-year-old, Hara Kiri was a hat-trick winner in handicap hurdles just over a year ago. He made a satisfactory return from a long absence when beaten five lengths off his career-high mark last time out. He is entitled to have improved for that run and should be competitive.

Authodidacte

This unexposed five-year-old was a winner on the Flat in France before readily winning a heavy-ground maiden hurdle at Leicester on his sole start a year ago. He makes his handicap debut off what could be a workable mark, but his fitness has to be taken on trust after a 369-day absence.

Key Race Statistics

• Age Groups: 3yo 0-0-2, 4yo 2-3-14, 5yo 2-2-11, 6yo 1-3-15, 7yo 1-3-9, 8yo 1-3-6, 9yo 0-1-4, 10yo 0-0-2, 11yo 1-0-2, 12yo 0-0-1

• Fate of Favourites: Favourites have a poor record, with finishing positions of 4th, 4th, 1st, 0, 2nd, 0, F, and 6th in the last eight renewals.

• Notable Trainer Records (w-pl-r): Henry Oliver 0-2-2, Olly Murphy 0-1-3

Assessment of Top Two Contenders

This is a classic conundrum of race-fitness versus potential. Hara Kiri has a recent run under his belt and is expected to strip fitter, making him a solid proposition. Authodidacte could be anything, but the long layoff is a major concern. Given the uncertainties, Hara Kiri’s recent outing and proven ability to handle his current mark present the more compelling case.

Spotlight Verdict

This looks quite open. HARA KIRI gets the nod as there was enough to take out of his comeback run to believe he can defy this career-high mark. Railway Bell might be on a realistic mark if she’s ready to rock after her absence. Authodidacte is dangerously unexposed.

The analysis moves to the penultimate race from Punchestown.

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13. 3.23 Punchestown – Matchbook Best Odds On Festive Racing Handicap Hurdle (Div II)

This is the second division of the three-mile handicap hurdle, and the stamina-sapping conditions will once again be the dominant factor. Contenders in this race must have proven form and the resilience to handle a demanding test of endurance on heavy ground to have any chance of featuring in the finish.

TimeWise Master Top Two Selections

1. Pebble Bleu (271)

2. Lough Nigara (238)

Form and Profile Summary

Pebble Bleu

A chase winner at this course last year, Pebble Bleu successfully got off the mark over hurdles at the eighth attempt with a narrow victory at Tramore over 2m5f last time. The step up to three miles should be fine, and he has a chance of following up despite a 4lb rise in the handicap.

Lough Nigara

This eight-year-old maiden has been a model of consistency recently, running excellent races to finish second on his last two starts over this trip at Fairyhouse. Although he has been raised another 2lb in the weights, he is likely to be involved in the finish once again.

Key Race Statistics

• Age Groups: 4yo 0-0-2, 5yo 1-4-11, 6yo 1-1-23, 7yo 0-2-9, 8yo 1-1-6, 9yo 0-1-4, 10yo 0-0-1, 11yo 0-0-1, 12yo 0-0-1

• Fate of Favourites: The market leader has a strong record here, with two wins and a third place in the last three renewals.

• Notable Trainer Records (w-pl-r): P J Rothwell 1-0-2, Brian M McMahon 0-1-2, F G Hand 0-1-1, Patrick T Foley 0-1-1

Assessment of Top Two Contenders

Pebble Bleu arrives with winning momentum, but the subsequent 4lb penalty makes his task tougher. In contrast, Lough Nigara has demonstrated his effectiveness under these conditions with two excellent recent runner-up efforts. He appears to be knocking on the door, and his consistency makes him look overdue for a victory. The penalty for Pebble Bleu may be just enough to tip the scales in favour of the reliable Lough Nigara.

Spotlight Verdict

Plenty have chances but LOUGH NIGARA looks likely to run his race again and can get off the mark for an in-form yard even raised another 2lb. Comeonarchie was a close second in this race last year but has to put some lesser runs behind him. Pebble Bleu won at Tramore last time and can go well off 4lb higher. Sallap had every chance when falling at the last at Thurles last time and is a player. County Champs has no form on ground this soft but has the form to run well if handling it.

We conclude the day’s analysis with the final race from Uttoxeter.

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14. 3.33 Uttoxeter – QuinnBet Mares’ Handicap Hurdle

The finale at Uttoxeter is a competitive mares’ handicap hurdle where a number of the runners hold plausible claims. With many in with a chance on their best form, this promises to be a challenging race to analyze and a fittingly difficult puzzle to end the day.

TimeWise Master Top Two Selections

1. Analiese (274)

2. Hard Dealt (254)

Form and Profile Summary

Analiese

A winner of a juvenile hurdle, this lightly-raced four-year-old produced a career-best effort on her latest start. Sent off at odds of 40-1, she finished an excellent runner-up over a similar trip at Chepstow. That performance is a solid platform to build from, and she warrants respect.

Hard Dealt

A comfortable winner of a novice race at Worcester in May, she was well-supported for her recent handicap debut at Exeter but ran below expectations. She can be given another chance off her current mark, but her ability to handle soft ground remains unproven and is a significant concern.

Key Race Statistics

• Age Groups: 4yo 0-0-6, 5yo 2-3-24, 6yo 1-4-17, 7yo 1-3-13, 8yo 0-1-1, 11yo 0-0-1

• Fate of Favourites: The market leader has a poor recent record, showing finishing positions of Pulled Up, 1st, 0, and 2nd in the last four renewals.

• Notable Trainer Records (w-pl-r): Nigel Hawke 0-1-2

Assessment of Top Two Contenders

Analiese comes into this race on the back of a hugely promising runner-up effort, suggesting she is progressing well. Hard Dealt, on the other hand, needs to bounce back from a disappointing run and has a significant question mark over her ability to act on the prevailing soft ground. Given these factors, Analiese possesses the more solid and appealing profile for this contest.

Spotlight Verdict

Most of these can be given chances. HARD DEALT failed to fire on her handicap debut but she was favourite and is given another chance. Miss Maxfort (second choice) and Analiese hit the frame at big odds in different Chepstow handicaps last month and are feared most, together with Highbury Hill.