1.00 Uttoxeter – Support The Injured Jockeys Fund ‘Chasing Excellence’ Beginners’ Chase

With a late non-runner, this beginners’ chase has boiled down to a fascinating match race. The contest pits a Listed-winning hurdler, making a highly anticipated second start over fences, against a useful handicapper whose stamina is a key question at this 2m4f trip. The dynamic places intense focus on their respective jumping prowess and suitability to the conditions.

This looks all about FINGLE BRIDGE, who was the best of these over hurdles and his chase debut behind Lulamba was very likeable. He promises to be better again at this trip, whereas Phantomofthepoints probably needs 3m.

— Alistair Jones

Specific statistics regarding age group performance and the fate of favourites are not available for this race.

Market & Runner Updates

• Non-Runners: Largy Belter

• Market Moves:

    ◦ Backed: Significant support has come for Fingle Bridge, who has been backed in from 4/11 to a prohibitive 1/6.

    ◦ Drifted: Phantomofthepoints has drifted in the market from 5/2 to 7/2.

TimeWise Top-Rated Analysis

Fingle Bridge (TimeWise Rating: 346)

Fingle Bridge established himself as a talented hurdler with three wins, including a Listed race success. His chase debut at Exeter was highly eye-catching; although he couldn’t lay a glove on the winner, Lulamba, that rival has since impressed, boosting the form. The step up to this longer trip is seen as a significant positive and he is expected to be hard to beat.

Strengths	Weaknesses
Superior hurdles form, including a Listed win	—
Showed significant promise on his chase debut
The longer trip is expected to benefit him greatly

Phantomofthepoints (TimeWise Rating: 336)

A useful hurdler in his own right, Phantomofthepoints made a very respectable reappearance in a competitive Grade 3 handicap. However, he comes into this contest with limited chasing experience, having failed to complete in two point-to-point starts. Furthermore, analysis suggests that his optimal trip is likely around 3 miles, making this 2m4f test a potential question mark.

Strengths	Weaknesses
Useful hurdles form	Lacks chasing experience (0-2 in points)
Ran well on his seasonal return	This trip is likely too short, with 3m preferable

While the opener looks straightforward for the favourite, the following conditional jockeys’ handicap presents a much deeper puzzle.

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1.30 Uttoxeter – TGF Construction Christmas Bonanza Conditional Jockeys’ Handicap Hurdle

This handicap hurdle, reserved for conditional jockeys, adds an extra layer of complexity to the analysis. Punters must weigh not only the form, trip, and ground suitability of the horses but also the capabilities and relative inexperience of their riders. Tactical decisions made in the saddle can often be the deciding factor in these tightly-contested events.

On the back of an encouraging handicap debut and with today’s longer trip likely to suit, CARISMATIC SOLDIER (nap) could take some beating. Jolie Baie has more favourable ground here than on her comeback run and she’s second choice ahead of Oh My Johnny.

— Alistair Jones

Key Race Statistics

• Age Groups: 5yo (1-0-5), 6yo (3-1-7), 7yo (0-2-8), 8yo (1-4-9), 9yo (0-1-3), 10yo+ (0-0-4).

• Fate of Favourites: The recent record for favourites is strong, with four wins from the last five runnings (1, 1, 1, 1, 2).

• Trainer Record: Olly Murphy has a notable record in this specific race, with one winner and one placed horse from two runners (1-1-2).

Market & Runner Updates

• Non-Runners: Alan Bresil

• Market Moves:

    ◦ Drifted: Jolie Baie has seen her odds drift from 7/1 out to 12/1.

TimeWise Top-Rated Analysis

Carismatic Soldier (TimeWise Rating: 308)

Carismatic Soldier arrives with a promising profile, having won a Chepstow novice hurdle on heavy ground. He backed that up with a pleasing handicap debut when finishing a rallying third in a Class 3 contest at Wetherby. The manner of that performance suggests he is now ready for this step up in trip, making him a respected contender.

Strengths	Weaknesses
Novice winner on heavy ground	—
Made an encouraging handicap debut at a higher level
Looks ready for the step up to a longer trip

Oh My Johnny (TimeWise Rating: 247)

A winner on this card twelve months ago, Oh My Johnny proved his effectiveness at this course by landing a maiden hurdle. He subsequently won a handicap at Hereford off a mark 3lb higher than today’s. While he was below his best in his last two outings, he is entitled to be sharper for his recent comeback run and the trip is not expected to be an issue.

Strengths	Weaknesses
Previous course winner	Was below par on his last two starts
A proven handicap winner off a similar mark	Current form raises a question mark
Should stay this trip

From the established handicappers, we now turn our focus to the unexposed potential in the maiden hurdle.

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2:00 Uttoxeter – Camburg Maiden Hurdle

Maiden hurdles are a fascinating test for analysts, requiring the evaluation of varied form lines. Contenders arrive from different backgrounds, including bumper races, Irish point-to-points, and flat racing, and the challenge lies in weighing the relative merit of this experience to identify the most likely winner over obstacles.

There’s no temptation to see past BARON NOIR despite him coming up short when odds-on for his hurdling debut. The Warwick winner could be very good. Bobby’s Nelson is the standout alternative after giving the hot favourite a fright at Ffos Las. Up To Trix should have a future and his yard has done well in this maiden.

— Alistair Jones

Key Race Statistics

• Age Groups: 4yo (2-7-47), 5yo (5-8-40), 6yo (2-2-16).

• Fate of Favourites: Favourites have a strong record in this race, with seven wins from the last nine renewals.

• Trainer Records: Several trainers have strong records in this race:

    ◦ Olly Murphy: 3 winners, 1 place from 9 runners

    ◦ Dan Skelton: 2 winners, 1 place from 6 runners

    ◦ Philip Hobbs & Johnson White: 1 winner from 2 runners

    ◦ David Pipe: 0 winners, 1 place from 2 runners

Market & Runner Updates

• Non-Runners: None reported.

• Market Moves: No significant market movers have been reported.

TimeWise Top-Rated Analysis

Baron Noir (TimeWise Rating: 289)

Baron Noir brings impressive bumper form to this contest, which stands out at this level. On his hurdling debut at Warwick, he finished a solid 3-length runner-up, and the prevailing view is that he simply bumped into a smart prospect that day. With that experience under his belt, this appears to be an excellent opportunity for him to go one better.

Strengths	Weaknesses
Impressive bumper form for this level	—
Strong hurdling debut behind good opposition
Viewed as having a good opportunity to win

Bobbys Nelson (TimeWise Rating: 260)

Consistency has been the hallmark of Bobbys Nelson’s career to date, having finished runner-up in a point-to-point, a bumper, and most recently a novice hurdle at Ffos Las. In that latest start, he gave the odds-on favourite a real test. While he looks a very solid contender for a place, he may need to find a little more to overcome the top-rated horse.

Strengths	Weaknesses
Consistent runner-up form across multiple disciplines	Needs to find more to beat the top-rated horse.
Looks very solid for place honours

Our analysis now switches to the all-weather action at Newcastle for the remainder of the day.

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3:18 Newcastle – Midnite Ain’t Your Grandad’s Bookie Handicap

We begin our Newcastle coverage with a competitive Class 6 handicap over the extended 1m4f trip. On the all-weather, course form and a proven ability to handle the Tapeta surface are often crucial factors. In these tightly-contested races with closely matched runners, trip suitability and recent performance are key indicators for finding the winner.

Having posted his best effort since joining this stable when beaten a head over C&D 15 days ago, TRACKER ISSUE is selected to get off the mark, while Violeta is second choice following a good effort here on her return from a break. Whatacracker looks capable of going well and the drop back in trip should suit Speechman.

— Harry March

Key Race Statistics

• Age Groups: 3yo (0-1-2), 4yo+ (1-1-7).

• Trainers In This Race: David Thompson has a record of 0 wins, 1 place from 1 runner in this race.

Market & Runner Updates

• Non-Runners: Harswell Duke

• Market Moves:

    ◦ Backed: Whatacracker, Speechman, Rubellite

    ◦ Drifted: Vampire Slayer, Noss Mayo, Tracker Issue, Flying Scotsman, Violeta, Rock Armour

TimeWise Top-Rated Analysis

Ana Emaraaty (TimeWise Rating: 221)

A proven performer on this surface, Ana Emaraaty completed a Tapeta hat-trick in the spring. He is now just 1lb lower than when winning at Musselburgh in July. His recent efforts have been respectable, and the reapplication of blinkers is a notable change. His hold-up running style means he often needs circumstances to fall in his favour, but he is competitively handicapped.

Strengths	Weaknesses
A proven winner on Tapeta	Needs the race to “drop right” due to his hold-up style.
Now on a competitive handicap mark
Blinkers are reapplied

Whatacracker (TimeWise Rating: 216)

Whatacracker’s record of just one win from 24 starts is a concern, but he comes here with excuses. He didn’t get a clear passage when finishing fifth at Southwell last time out and remains unexposed on the all-weather. The analysis suggests that the extra furlong on this stiffer track could play to his strengths.

Strengths	Weaknesses
Unexposed on the All-Weather	Sole win from 24 starts is a major concern.
Potentially suited by the trip and track
Had excuses for his last performance

Analyst’s Reconciliation

It is notable that the Spotlight verdict sides with Tracker Issue, who is not among the top two TimeWise-rated runners. This preference is likely based on his excellent recent performance, where he was “beaten only a head over C&D 15 days ago with the cheekpieces back on”. That run represents his best effort for the stable, and a repeat of that form would make him a major contender, justifying the analyst’s selection despite what the raw ratings suggest.

Next, a fillies’ novice stakes where unraced contenders add to the puzzle.

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3:55 Newcastle – Read Meg Nicholls’ Blog At betmgm.co.uk Fillies’ Novice Stakes

Analyzing a novice stakes race featuring a mix of newcomers and lightly-raced fillies presents a unique challenge. With limited form to study, factors such as a horse’s pedigree, the trainer’s record with debutantes, and tell-tale market signals become critically important tools for assessment.

Yy Spirit sets the standard but has regressed. GET AN ATTITUDE looks the pick of the newcomers and will be particularly interesting if the market speaks positively.

— Steve Boow

Specific statistics regarding age group performance and the fate of favourites are not available for this race.

Market & Runner Updates

• Non-Runners: None reported.

• Market Moves:

    ◦ Backed: Yy Spirit has been the subject of market support, backed from 9/4 into 13/8.

    ◦ Drifted: Quiet Serenade, Caileag Aisling, Flowerpot

TimeWise Top-Rated Analysis

Yy Spirit (TimeWise Rating: 190)

As a thrice-raced filly, Yy Spirit brings the “only worthwhile form” to this contest and sets the standard on official ratings. However, there is a significant concern that she has “regressed sharply” in her two starts since a promising third on debut at Wolverhampton, making her a risky proposition despite her experience.

Strengths	Weaknesses
Sets the standard on form	Has regressed sharply in last two starts
Has valuable race experience

Princess Coco (TimeWise Rating: 128)

Princess Coco’s debut performance offers little encouragement. She was “soundly beaten” in a 6f race at Redcar after being “friendless in the betting,” which suggests she was not expected to feature prominently. While she now has a run under her belt, a vast improvement is required.

Strengths	Weaknesses
Has race experience over some rivals	Soundly beaten on debut
	Unsupported in the market on her first start

Analyst’s Reconciliation: The Spotlight on Newcomers

While the TimeWise ratings focus on experienced runners, the Spotlight verdict highlights Get An Attitude as the “pick of the newcomers.” This selection is based on a promising pedigree; she is a 145,000euros foal by the top sire No Nay Never and hails from a major yard. In races with little established form, a well-bred debutante from a powerful stable often commands significant respect, and any positive market moves would be a strong indicator of her chances.

The analysis continues with another novice event, this time for two-year-olds over the minimum trip.

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4:30 Newcastle – Best Odds Guaranteed At BetMGM EBF Novice Stakes

This 5f novice stakes for two-year-olds requires punters to consider several key factors. Evaluating the potential impact of a drop in trip for horses who have previously run over further is crucial, as is assessing the raw potential of lightly-raced contenders. Spotlight’s verdict notes that while See That Spark is the pick, stablemate Thankfully Simmy is a key danger after an excusable run last time out, adding depth to the challenge.

Thankfully Simmy (second choice) didn’t get the best of runs when behind SEE THAT SPARK here over 6f last time, but the latter raced freely that day and may be better suited by this shorter trip. Dolos Dream and Sound And Vision also make the shortlist.

— Harry March

Key Race Statistics

• Fate of Favourites: The recent record for favourites in this race is 1 win and 2 places from 12 runners.

• Trainers In This Race: Bryan Smart has a record of 0 wins, 1 place from 2 runners in this race.

Market & Runner Updates

• Non-Runners: Honorable Man

• Market Moves:

    ◦ Backed: There has been a significant move for Sound And Vision, backed from 3/1 into 7/4.

    ◦ Drifted: Spirit Of Mara, Liquid Cooled

TimeWise Top-Rated Analysis

See That Spark (TimeWise Rating: 243)

See That Spark has shown progressive form, building on his debut to finish third at Doncaster and then filling the same spot over 6f here at Newcastle. The key piece of analysis is that he “raced freely” last time, suggesting that the drop back to this sharper 5f trip could suit him well and make him a leading contender.

Strengths	Weaknesses
Solid placed form in last two starts	Raced too freely on his last start
Drop in trip is viewed as a potential positive

Dolos Dream (TimeWise Rating: 242)

On her debut over 6f at this track, Dolos Dream showed definite ability when finishing second of six behind an odds-on favourite. As a lightly-raced contender from a respected yard, she is considered open to further improvement. The main unknown is how she will handle the drop in trip to 5f.

Strengths	Weaknesses
Showed promise on debut	Lacks experience
Open to natural improvement	Dropping in trip is an unknown factor

Next up is a high-quality sprint handicap which promises to be a thrilling contest.

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5:00 Newcastle – Make The Move To Midnite Handicap

This high-value Class 3 handicap sprint over 5f is one of the feature races on the card. At Newcastle, proven form over the specific course and distance (C&D) is a significant advantage. The primary challenge for analysts is to weigh strong recent form against the past successes of established course specialists.

There isn’t a huge amount between the five runners who took part in a similar event over C&D 19 days ago but LETHAL NYMPH looked unlucky and is taken to gain compensation. Dark Cloud Rising, who may be capable of better still, is second pick. From a different line of form, Rhythm N Hooves looks a likely player.

— Steve Boow

Specific statistics regarding age group performance and the fate of favourites are not available for this race.

Market & Runner Updates

• Non-Runners: None reported.

• Market Moves:

    ◦ Backed: There has been a notable move for Oriental Prince, backed from 10/1 into 5/1.

    ◦ Drifted: Paddy’s Day, Arnhem

TimeWise Top-Rated Analysis

Rhythm N Hooves (TimeWise Rating: 336)

This sprinter is threatening to add to his tally, arriving in excellent form since returning to the all-weather. He has finished second on his last two starts at Wolverhampton and Southwell, beaten only narrowly on both occasions. Although he is back up 2lb in the handicap, he cannot be dismissed given his current vein of form.

Strengths	Weaknesses
In excellent current form with two recent second-place finishes	Is back up 2lb in the handicap

Dark Cloud Rising (TimeWise Rating: 324)

Dark Cloud Rising responded well to the first-time application of cheekpieces when winning over this course and distance last time out, improving his overall strike rate to a commendable 4 from 15. As a horse who remains unexposed at this trip and on the all-weather, he is respected with the headgear retained.

Strengths	Weaknesses
C&D winner on his last start	—
Unexposed in these conditions
Cheekpieces are retained

Analyst’s Reconciliation

The Spotlight verdict diverges from the TimeWise ratings, siding with Lethal Nymph. This selection is rooted in a specific piece of course and distance form from 19 days ago, where several of today’s rivals met. The analysis notes that Lethal Nymph “looked unlucky” and “might well have won with a clearer run”. This suggests his third-place finish that day can be significantly upgraded, making him a prime candidate to gain compensation and a worthy nap selection for the Spotlight analyst.

The day’s analysis concludes with another fast and furious 5f sprint handicap.

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7:30 Newcastle – Midnite A Next Generation Betting App Handicap

The final race of the evening is another 5f handicap, where tactics and fortune play a huge role. In large-field sprints on the Tapeta surface, factors such as the early pace of the race, the draw, and a horse’s individual running style are often critical in determining the outcome.

There’s likely to be competition for the lead but THANK THE LORD posted a good effort over 6f at Wolverhampton ten days ago and can cope with today’s drop back in trip. Ramon Di Loria looks a good bet to be involved and, if they overdo things up front, Pockley could have a say despite his tough mark.

— Alistair Jones

Key Race Statistics

• Age Groups: 3yo (0-1-4), 4yo+ (1-1-8).

Market & Runner Updates

• Non-Runners: None reported.

• Market Moves:

    ◦ Backed: Strong support has been seen for Digital (15/2 into 7/2) and Arlington (13/2 to 4/1).

    ◦ Drifted: Invincible Annice, Beneficiary, Ramon Di Loria

TimeWise Top-Rated Analysis

Ramon Di Loria (TimeWise Rating: 219)

A course and distance winner here in September off a mark just 1lb lower than today’s, Ramon Di Loria has demonstrated his effectiveness under these conditions. He has remained in consistent form, not finishing far away in three subsequent runs, which makes him a solid contender.

Strengths	Weaknesses
Proven C&D winner	—
On a competitive mark
In consistent recent form

Arlington (TimeWise Rating: 215)

Arlington made most for a length success at Southwell, but a subsequent 4lb rise proved too much on his next start, where he was anchored even with the benefit of a 7lb claiming jockey’s allowance. He can still run well if the race pans out favorably, but he no longer has that weight relief today.

Strengths	Weaknesses
Recent winner	A 4lb rise proved difficult last time out
Front-running style can be effective	Does not have a claimer’s allowance today

Analyst’s Reconciliation

In this competitive closing sprint, the Spotlight verdict opts for Thank The Lord over the TimeWise top-rated pair. The reasoning is based on a strong recent effort where he was “only narrowly losing out” at Wolverhampton, faring best of those who raced prominently. The analyst believes he can cope with the drop back to 5f, and his pace-setting style could prove advantageous if he gets an uncontested lead, providing a tactical angle that the pure form ratings might overlook.