3:00 Ascot – Howden Noel Novices’ Chase (Grade 2, Class 1)2m3f | Soft | 5 runners | 16 fences

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Pace & Race Shape

Likely strong-to-even pace.

  • Steel Ally: natural front-runner, almost certain to go forward.
  • Push The Button: usually prominent, may track leader.
  • No Questions Asked / Jax Junior: happy stalking in midfield.
  • Personal Ambition: usually held up, needs rhythm and luck.

On soft ground at Ascot, pressing the pace without over-racing is often optimal. Front-runners can be vulnerable late if pressure applied.


Contenders Breakdown

🟦 No Questions AskedProven / Progressive (p)

RPR 161 | TS 153 | OR 144 | Score: 9/10

  • C&D winner on chase debut, then excellent 2nd in G2 at Newbury behind Wendigo.
  • That Newbury run is the clear form anchor in this field.
  • Has won on soft (bumper) → ground no issue.
  • Strong finishing profile, no pace dependency.
  • Trainer (Pauling) 31% last 14 days – clear positive.

Profile: Looks the most complete novice here. Sets the standard on figures and form.
Red Team – Primary Win Candidate


🟦 Jax JuniorPromising (P)

RPR 152 | TS 146 | OR 139 | Score: 8.5/10

  • Unexposed chaser (2 runs), emphatic Kempton win (12L).
  • Previous hurdle form strong, including Ascot winner.
  • Slight query: Kempton win came on good ground; now deeper test on soft.
  • TS spike (146) suggests real engine.
  • Yard quieter recently, but profile screams upside.

Profile: Likely better than current mark; main danger if handling conditions.
Red Team – Main Threat


🟨 Steel AllyProgressive (p)

RPR 151 | TS 124 | OR 144 | Score: 7.5/10

  • Carlisle chase debut win was visually strong.
  • Proven on soft, progressive over hurdles.
  • 3lb penalty + likely pace pressure today.
  • Front-running style could be softened up by rivals.

Profile: Talented, but race setup may not be ideal.
Blue Team – Can Win if Dictating


🟧 Push The ButtonImproving but Exposed

RPR 146 | TS 120 | OR 136 | Score: 6.5/10

  • Solid novice chase form; honest and improving.
  • Best hurdle form came at 3m, so trip may be on the sharp side.
  • Needs career-best to trouble principals.

Profile: Place contender if others underperform.
Blue Team – Place/Pace Nuisance


🟥 Personal AmbitionTalented but Regressive

RPR 150 | OR 136 | Score: 4/10

  • Nearly won this race last year, but form since is patchy.
  • Pulled up last time; quirky and unreliable.
  • Ability there, confidence questionable.

Profile: Needs revival; market watch essential.
Blue Team – Needs Everything to Fall Right


Runner Scores Summary

  • No Questions Asked – 9/10
  • Jax Junior – 8.5/10
  • Steel Ally – 7.5/10
  • Push The Button – 6.5/10
  • Personal Ambition – 4/10

Private Tissue (My Odds)

  • No Questions Asked – 6/4
  • Jax Junior – 7/4
  • Steel Ally – 3/1
  • Push The Button – 8/1
  • Personal Ambition – 20/1

(Current market broadly fair, slight value edge still with the favourite if holding 13/8+)


Summary – Race Reading

This looks a proper Grade 2 novice despite small field.
Steel Ally ensures pace, which should suit stalkers with stamina and class. On balance, the horse with the best recent Grade 2 form, proven track suitability, and strongest finishing profile is the one to side with.


🧠 Smart Play (Chatgpt View)

Top Win Bet:
➡️ No Questions Asked – best form, best figures, ideal setup.

Saver / Alternative:
➡️ Jax Junior (win) if market drifts slightly – big upside, still learning.

No each-way angles with 5 runners.

Market Watch:

  • Support for Personal Ambition would be notable but risky.
  • Any drift on No Questions Asked would improve confidence further.

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