Exeter Christmas Raceday: Form & Ratings Analysis

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The meeting at Ffos Las has been abandoned due to a waterlogged track.

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1. The 12:30 Pricedup.bet Maiden Hurdle

1.1. Race Context and Strategic Overview

The day begins with a classic maiden hurdle, a contest exclusively for horses yet to secure a victory over hurdles. This type of race is a crucial stepping stone in a young jumper’s career, often creating a fascinating clash between promising newcomers making their debut and more experienced runners who have shown ability without yet entering the winner’s enclosure.

1.2. TimeWise Top-Rated Analysis

1.2.1. Top-Rated: Lasko Des Obeaux (TimeWise Rating: 293)

• Form Summary: This four-year-old brings strong credentials to the table. He was the runner-up on his debut in a competitive Irish maiden point-to-point over 3m on yielding to soft ground, after which he commanded a significant £120,000 price tag. He backed up that promise by finishing second again on his first start over hurdles in a 2m novice event at Chepstow last month on soft ground.

• Chances Assessment: As the top-rated contender, Lasko Des Obeaux holds leading claims. His promising hurdle debut confirmed the potential suggested by his high purchase price and point-to-point form. While he is still searching for his first win, his demonstrated ability marks him as the clear standard-bearer in this field.

1.2.2. Second-Rated: On The Bayou (TimeWise Rating: 229)

• Form Summary: A winner of his sole Irish maiden point on soft ground, On The Bayou was subsequently purchased for £140,000. He was then absent from the track for a significant period before returning in a Newton Abbot bumper (2m1f, good to soft) in October, where he ran an encouraging race to finish a close fifth.

• Chances Assessment: Representing a trainer who won this race last year, On The Bayou is a very interesting prospect. His point-to-point win signals inherent ability, and his recent return from a long layoff should have sharpened him up considerably. With natural improvement expected, he profiles as a key contender and the main danger to the favourite.

1.3. Spotlight Verdict

Having been a promising second at Chepstow last month on his hurdle debut, LASKO DES OBEAUX is taken to go one better today. Point winner On The Bayou is open to improvement on his second start back from a long absence and is feared most ahead of the newcomer What A Dragon. (Ben Hutton)

1.4. Key Race Statistics

• Age Group Performance:

    ◦ 4yo: 1 win, 3 places, 23 runs

    ◦ 5yo: 3 wins, 4 places, 18 runs

    ◦ 6yo: 0 wins, 0 places, 7 runs

    ◦ 7yo: 0 wins, 1 place, 2 runs

• Fate of Favourites: The record for favourites in recent renewals is 3 wins, 0 places, from 4 runs, with one Pulling Up (3P11).

• Featured Trainers:

    ◦ Harry Fry: 1 win, 0 places, 1 run

    ◦ David Pipe: 0 wins, 2 places, 4 runs

    ◦ Philip Hobbs & Johnson White: 0 wins, 1 place, 1 run

With the opening contest assessed, attention now turns to a fascinating novices’ chase for mares.

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2. The 1:00 PricedUp The Jumps ‘Chasing Excellence’ Mares’ Novices’ Chase

2.1. Race Context and Strategic Overview

This Mares’ Novices’ Chase represents a key opportunity for promising female chasers to gain valuable experience and, potentially, coveted black type for their breeding careers. The small field presents an interesting tactical dynamic, pitting Bluey, a proven chase winner carrying a penalty, against Hollygrove Cha Cha, who brings high-class hurdle form to the table.

2.2. TimeWise Top-Rated Analysis

2.2.1. Top-Rated: Hollygrove Cha Cha (TimeWise Rating: 324)

• Form Summary: A Grade 2 winner over hurdles at Sandown (2m4f, soft) last season, she made a highly encouraging start to her chasing career when finishing a close third against male opposition in a Listed Intermediate Chase at Carlisle (2m4f, good to soft). While her jumping was noted as having room for improvement, the quality of that debut run was undeniable.

• Chances Assessment: Her top-class hurdling form provides a strong foundation, and her chase debut was full of promise. The drop back in trip from 2m4f to 2m1½f is not an obvious positive, but she is open to significant improvement over fences, and if her jumping is more fluent today, she has the raw ability to outclass this field. She is the highest-rated runner for a reason and holds a big chance.

2.2.2. Second-Rated: Bluey (TimeWise Rating: 310)

• Form Summary: This mare has taken to fences impressively, winning on her chase debut at Kempton (2m2f, good) before running another solid race to finish fourth at Newbury (2m, good to soft). Crucially, both of those runs came in competitive handicaps against male horses. She has also demonstrated her effectiveness on soft ground during her hurdling career.

• Chances Assessment: Bluey brings proven chasing ability to the contest, which cannot be underestimated. She has already shown she can win over the larger obstacles and compete strongly against the opposite sex. The challenge will be conceding weight to a rival of Hollygrove Cha Cha’s calibre, but her experience and solid form make her a very formidable opponent.

2.3. Spotlight Verdict

Bluey has made an excellent transition to fences this autumn and is very much respected under a penalty but preference is for HOLLYGROVE CHA CHA, who made a very promising start to her chasing career at Carlisle. The returning cheekpieces could be a positive for All The Glory and she could also have a big part to play. (Ben Hutton)

2.4. Key Race Statistics

• Age Group Performance:

    ◦ 4yo: 0 wins, 1 place, 4 runs

    ◦ 5yo: 1 win, 2 places, 11 runs

    ◦ 6yo: 3 wins, 3 places, 15 runs

    ◦ 7yo: 2 wins, 0 places, 9 runs

    ◦ 8yo: 3 wins, 0 places, 6 runs

• Fate of Favourites: Favourites have a strong record, with 7 wins from 9 runs, one fall, and one unseating (11F21U311).

Next on the card is a juvenile maiden hurdle, where a new generation of jumpers will be tested.

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3. The 1:30 PricedUp Daily Racing Boosts Juvenile Maiden Hurdle

3.1. Race Context and Strategic Overview

This juvenile maiden hurdle is restricted to three-year-olds, a race that often serves as the first test for horses transitioning from a career on the Flat. The challenge lies in assessing their potential to adapt to the new discipline of jumping, with breeding, Flat form, and trainer proficiency being key indicators of future success.

3.2. TimeWise Top-Rated Analysis

3.2.1. Top-Rated: Lord Byron (TimeWise Rating: 266)

• Form Summary: Formerly with master trainer Aidan O’Brien in Ireland, Lord Byron showed clear ability in two starts on the Flat, finishing fifth at Punchestown (1m, good) and second at Navan (1m6f, soft). His pedigree also offers encouragement for this new discipline, with a half-sister having won over hurdles.

• Chances Assessment: Making his debut for a new yard, his background is compelling. The promise shown in high-quality Irish Flat maidens, combined with a suitable pedigree, suggests he has the engine for hurdling. He is a significant threat and could make a winning start to his jumping career.

3.2.2. Second-Rated: Way Of Stars (TimeWise Rating: 265)

• Form Summary: A useful performer on the Flat for Andrew Balding, Way Of Stars was a winner over 1m6f on good to firm ground and achieved a peak Racing Post Rating (RPR) of 94. He changed hands for a notable 68,000gns in October and also showed hints of promise on soft ground during his Flat career.

• Chances Assessment: His useful Flat ability provides a strong platform for a hurdling career. The purchase price indicates his new connections believe he has significant potential in this sphere, and his proven stamina is a major asset. He is a highly respected contender.

3.3. Spotlight Verdict

French Flat winner KLYCOT made a promising start to his hurdling career when fourth at Sandown recently and can put that experience to good use. The ex-Ballydoyle Lord Byron could be a big threat on his first run for Faye Bramley, while Way Of Stars was useful on the Flat and is also respected. (Ben Hutton)

From the juveniles, we move to a competitive staying handicap chase, the ‘Christmas Cup’.

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4. The 2:00 Racing Blogger, ‘Christmas Cup’ Handicap Chase

4.1. Race Context and Strategic Overview

This three-mile handicap chase is a true test of stamina and jumping. As a handicap, the official ratings assigned to each runner are designed to level the playing field, creating a competitive event. The race brings together horses with varied profiles, from promising novices stepping into handicap company to more seasoned campaigners, where the handicapper’s assessment is paramount.

4.2. TimeWise Top-Rated Analysis

4.2.1. Top-Rated: Isaac Des Obeaux (TimeWise Rating: 301)

• Form Summary: Although still a maiden over fences with an 0-5 record, Isaac Des Obeaux made a respectable reappearance when finishing third in a Listed novice chase at Cheltenham (3m1f, soft).

• Chances Assessment: The key factor for this horse is the significant drop in grade from a high-class Listed contest to this Class 3 handicap. This represents a prime opportunity for him to finally get his head in front over fences. Facing less formidable opposition, he is a central figure in this race and firmly in calculations.

4.2.2. Second-Rated: Gyenyame (TimeWise Rating: 292)

• Form Summary: Characterised as a horse who has been “expensive to follow,” Gyenyame is nonetheless a very consistent performer. This was perfectly illustrated by his runner-up finish over this exact course and distance on his most recent outing last month on good ground.

• Chances Assessment: While he may not win out of turn, his consistency makes him a reliable contender. His proven effectiveness over the course, distance, and today’s soft ground are major positives. He is highly likely to be involved in the finish once again.

4.3. Spotlight Verdict

The drop back in grade could enable ISAAC DES OBEAUX to get off the mark over fences at the sixth attempt. The 6yo Vision De Maine may have more to offer this term and is second choice ahead of the consistent Gyenyame. It’s far too soon to write off Rosscahill, while Chris Gordon is having an excellent season and Coolvalla is an intriguing contender despite a huge absence. (Ben Hutton)

4.4. Key Race Statistics

• Age Group Performance:

    ◦ 5yo: 0 wins, 1 place, 2 runs

    ◦ 6yo: 0 wins, 2 places, 7 runs

    ◦ 7yo: 1 win, 4 places, 18 runs

    ◦ 8yo: 2 wins, 0 places, 9 runs

    ◦ 9yo: 1 win, 1 place, 10 runs

• Fate of Favourites: Favourites have a poor recent record, with none of the last four winning. Two failed to complete, while the other two finished fourth and sixth (6P4P).

The action continues with another handicap chase, this time at a lower level.

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5. The 2:30 Download The PricedUp App Handicap Chase

5.1. Race Context and Strategic Overview

This Class 5 handicap chase provides an opportunity for horses at the lower end of the ratings scale. Such races are often a platform for less exposed, lightly raced chasers to prove that their handicap mark is lenient, while also giving more established but modest campaigners a realistic chance to be competitive.

5.2. TimeWise Top-Rated Analysis

5.2.1. Top-Rated: Saint Cyr De Pail (TimeWise Rating: 236)

• Form Summary: Already a winner over hurdles at this course, this six-year-old was making promising headway when falling four out on his chase debut at Worcester (2m, good). He put that behind him with a solid fourth-place finish in a 16-runner field at Uttoxeter on his next start. He is proven to be effective on soft ground.

• Chances Assessment: As a lightly raced chaser, Saint Cyr De Pail has plenty of potential for improvement. His recent fourth was a strong effort and provides an excellent platform to build upon. He looks to be a likely player with the scope to progress beyond his current handicap mark.

5.2.2. Second-Rated: Sea Thrift (TimeWise Rating: 228)

• Form Summary: This mare arrives in good form from her hurdling campaign, having won a selling hurdle at Stratford (2m2f) before finishing third at Lingfield (2m) where the shorter trip was not in her favour. While unproven on soft ground, her pedigree provides optimism for a successful switch to the larger obstacles.

• Chances Assessment: Making her chasing debut, Sea Thrift presents an interesting profile. Her recent hurdles form is a positive indicator, and if she takes to fences over this 2m3f trip as her breeding suggests she might, she could go very well. The main questions are her aptitude for this new discipline and her ability to handle the ground.

5.3. Spotlight Verdict

The lightly raced 6yo SAINT CYR DE PAIL showed promise when fourth of 16 at Uttoxeter on his first completed chase start and earns the vote ahead of River Run Free, who may benefit from the cheekpieces. Valirann Gold is hard to win with but can give another good account, while the in-form mare Sea Thrift could be in the mix if taking to fences. (Ben Hutton)

5.4. Key Race Statistics

• Age Group Performance:

    ◦ 5yo: 0 wins, 3 places, 7 runs

    ◦ 6yo: 0 wins, 3 places, 13 runs

    ◦ 7yo: 2 wins, 1 place, 11 runs

    ◦ 8yo: 2 wins, 0 places, 5 runs

    ◦ 9yo: 0 wins, 1 place, 11 runs

• Fate of Favourites: Favourites have struggled, with only one of the last five completing the course (PP4UP).

• Featured Trainers:

    ◦ Daisy Hitchins: 0 wins, 1 place, 2 runs

    ◦ Joe Tizzard: 0 wins, 1 place, 1 run

Next up is a competitive handicap hurdle where recent form looks decisive.

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6. The 3:00 Ludo Sports Live Lounge Handicap Hurdle

6.1. Race Context and Strategic Overview

This lower-grade handicap hurdle appears to be a competitive affair where recent form is the most compelling angle. The race features several in-form contenders, but the standout profile belongs to a last-time-out winner who arrives here without a penalty, giving him a significant advantage at the weights.

6.2. TimeWise Top-Rated Analysis

6.2.1. Top-Rated: Thankyouandplease (TimeWise Rating: 261)

• Form Summary: This five-year-old showed much-improved form to get off the mark over hurdles at Leicester (1m7f) just last week, battling well to win on heavy ground.

• Chances Assessment: His chances are exceptionally strong. The crucial factor is that he “goes unpenalised” for that recent victory, meaning he competes off the same handicap mark. If he can reproduce that performance, he is incredibly well-treated and will be very tough to beat. He is the one they all have to beat.

6.2.2. Second-Rated: Olivia Kate (TimeWise Rating: 249)

• Form Summary: A mare with a tendency to jump to her left, she fell at Ludlow in October but bounced back in style with an easy victory at Leicester on soft ground. She also has a record of running well at Exeter in the past.

• Chances Assessment: Her recent win was impressive and marks her out as a respected contender. However, she has been raised 7lb in the weights for that success, which presents a tougher challenge. When combined with her jumping quirk, she has more to overcome than the top-rated horse but remains a key player.

6.3. Spotlight Verdict

The 5yo THANKYOUANDPLEASE (nap) escapes a penalty for last week’s win under Chad Bament at Leicester and he can follow up. Olivia Kate can jump to the left but that didn’t stop her winning at right-handed Leicester a fortnight ago and she ran well here on her sole previous course visit. She is feared most ahead of C&D winner Storming Nelson, who got back on track at Fontwell recently. (Ben Hutton)

The card concludes with an amateur jockeys’ handicap hurdle.

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7. The 3:30 pricedup.bet Amateur Jockeys’ Handicap Hurdle

7.1. Race Context and Strategic Overview

The final race of the day adds a different dynamic to the form analysis, as it is restricted to amateur jockeys. In these contests, the experience and skill of the rider can be a significant variable. The race itself features an interesting mix of profiles, including a contender dropping back in trip after proving his stamina and others with the potential for improvement on their return to action.

7.2. TimeWise Top-Rated Analysis

7.2.1. Top-Rated: Iris Des Issards (TimeWise Rating: 214)

• Form Summary: While possessing a modest career strike-rate, this gelding was a winner at Newton Abbot (2m5f, good) in April. His most recent run was a solid third-place finish at Taunton over a longer trip of 3m on good to firm ground. He is also proven to handle soft ground conditions.

• Chances Assessment: The drop back in distance from 3m to 2m5½f could be a key positive for Iris Des Issards, potentially giving him the edge he needs. Based on his proven stamina, ability to act on the ground, and recent solid form, he makes the shortlist and is a strong contender.

7.2.2. Second-Rated: Dish Of The Day (TimeWise Rating: 208)

• Form Summary: A lightly raced seven-year-old, he struggled in his first two handicaps before showing marked improvement when sent off favourite at Stratford in March. On that occasion, wearing first-time cheekpieces, he finished a good third. The cheekpieces are retained for his return today.

• Chances Assessment: He reappears after an absence, but there are several positives in his corner. His yard is in excellent form, the retained headgear clearly prompted improvement last time out, and as a lightly raced type, he may still have untapped potential. He profiles as a leading player.

7.3. Spotlight Verdict

Topweight IRIS DES ISSARDS could benefit from the drop back in trip and is the selection ahead of handicap newcomer Mr Griffiths, who is from a strong yard and wears first-time cheekpieces. Dish Of The Day is of interest on his comeback with trainer Nicky Martin in good form, while last month’s Wincanton runner-up Watchoutitscookie could again be involved. (Ben Hutton)

7.4. Key Race Statistics

• Age Group Performance:

    ◦ 4yo: 0 wins, 0 places, 6 runs

    ◦ 5yo: 1 win, 5 places, 24 runs

    ◦ 6yo: 3 wins, 4 places, 24 runs

    ◦ 7yo: 3 wins, 4 places, 21 runs

    ◦ 8yo: 1 win, 3 places, 20 runs

• Fate of Favourites: The record for favourites is mixed, with 4 wins from 9 runs (41011640).

• Featured Trainers:

    ◦ Kayley Woollacott: 0 wins, 1 place, 4 runs

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