2m5½f | Good | Big field

This looks a proper Lanzarote: depth everywhere, plenty of recent winners, and very little between the top half of the weights on raw ability. Kempton’s flat track puts the emphasis on travelling, rhythm and position, and the race is usually won by something that’s still improving rather than a fully exposed Grade performer.

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Key Profiles

A Pai De Nom
Ticks nearly every Lanzarote box. Strong record at 2m6f, improving with racing, and crucially his best figures come at this trip and under 11-7. He’s proven in big fields, handles good ground, and his peak RPRs (148) fit right in here. The only mild negative is limited Class 2 experience, but he looks exactly the type to bridge that gap.

French Ship
The obvious form horse. Rapidly progressive, strong recent wins, and capable of running a big number again. The question is weight and pace pressure — top weight in this race is never easy, and Kempton can expose horses that race too keenly. He’s a major player, but not bombproof.

Captain Teague
Pure class on his day. Grade-level ability, excellent peak ratings, and handles good ground well. However, he’s coming off a long absence, and his best work has often come when dominating smaller fields. Fitness and race sharpness are the big unknowns.

Beat The Bat
The “nearly horse” profile. Consistently competitive in better races than this, strong RPRs, and proven in large fields. The issue is obvious — doesn’t win often — but if this turns into a fast-run handicap where placing and late strength matter, he’ll be finishing.

Fasol
Well handicapped on recent form, handles good ground, and has the right low-weight, hold-up profile for Kempton if they go hard up front. Not flashy, but the sort who sneaks into the frame when others cry enough.

Came From Nowhere
Ultra-consistent, stays well, and still lightly raced. His figures are solid rather than spectacular, but he’s reliable and tactically versatile. Looks more like a place horse than a winner, unless the race collapses late.

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Others

• Iberico Lord has raw ability but his best form is on softer ground and over shorter.
• Goodwin is honest but looks high enough in the weights now.
• Double Powerful has fitness on his side but a poor January profile and questionable consistency.
• Wreckless Eric has talent but is hard to trust in a race this demanding.

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Verdict

This feels like a race for the progressive middleweights rather than the obvious top-end class.

A Pai De Nom stands out as the most complete profile for this exact test.
French Ship is the danger if coping with the burden.
For value and place angles, Beat The Bat and Fasol make plenty of sense.