(13 Jan 2026).

Race Profile

• Race: Midnite ‘Aint Your Grandads Bookie’ Handicap (Class 3)
• Distance: 5f (Straight)
• Surface: Tapeta (Standard)
• Runners: 7
• Key Statistic: High Draws (Stand Side) are dominant on the straight 5f course, particularly when the pace is drawn high.

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Pace & Draw Map: The “Golden Highway”

This race will almost certainly be decided by the Stand Side Rail.

• The Pace Setter:FIDELIUS (Draw 7).
  • He is the lone dedicated front-runner drawn high. His notes confirm he “made all” at Newcastle two starts ago. From the outside stall, he has a clear run to grab the rail and dictate terms.
• The Tracker:ZIGGY’S TRITON (Draw 6).
  • Ideally positioned. He can break well and sit immediately in Fidelius’ slipstream.
• The Problem:ATOMIC FORCE (Draw 2) and ALLIGATOR ALLEY (Draw 1).
  • Atomic Force likes to lead/press (“led at fast pace” at Wolves), but he is drawn on the wrong side. If he tries to cross over, he burns energy. If he stays low, he risks being isolated. This compromises Alligator Alley, who will likely be held up behind him on the “dead” part of the track.

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Runner-by-Runner Forensic Analysis

1. ZIGGY’S TRITON (Draw 6)

• Verdict: The Progressive Force (NAP)
• The Data: A rapid improver. RPRs of 86 -> 94 -> 95 in his last three runs.
• Form: Won back-to-back at Southwell in December. Just failed to catch Existent (a Class 2 horse) last time out (4 Jan), beaten only a neck.
• Tactics: He loves Southwell (2 wins, 2 places from 5). The setup is textbook: he gets a lead from Fidelius and has the finishing kick (ran on well LTO) to pick him off.
• Weight: Carries 9-6 (OR 89). He is facing exposed veterans and looks the only one with significant upside remaining.

2. FIDELIUS (Draw 7)

• Verdict: The Tactical Pivot / Main Danger
• The Data: Receiving weight from the field (Carries 8-13). RPRs of 88 (win) and 87 (3rd in Class 3) show he is holding his form well in this grade.
• Tactics: As the only speed horse on the rail, he could get an uncontested lead. If Marco Ghiani gets the fractions right, he will be very hard to catch.
• Risk: He tends to hang/edge. He needs to run straight to hold off Ziggy’s Triton.

3. ALLIGATOR ALLEY (Draw 1)

• Verdict: Class Act, Terrible Draw
• The Data: Highest RPR in the field (102 lifetime, 97 recent). Won 2 of his last 4.
• The Issue: Stall 1 is a nightmare in a small field dominated by high-drawn pace. To win, he needs the high numbers to come back to him, or he needs to thread through traffic across the track. He beat Fidelius at Newcastle, but the track dynamic there is different. At Southwell, giving weight away from the coffin corner is a massive ask.

4. PADDY’S DAY (Draw 3)

• Verdict: Newcastle Specialist
• The Data: 7 wins at Newcastle vs 0 wins at Southwell.
• Form: Won a Class 3 at Newcastle last time out (RPR 95). He is in great heart.
• Analysis: He is effective on Tapeta, but his distinct preference for the stiffer Newcastle finish makes him vulnerable here against true Southwell specialists like Ziggy’s Triton.

5. ATOMIC FORCE (Draw 2)

• Verdict: Vulnerable
• The Data: Former Group 2 winner but heavily regressive.
• Form: Has not won in a long time. His “fast pace” style is compromised by the low draw. Likely to set the race up for others.

6. JUAN LES PINS (Draw 5) & SPRING IS SPRUNG (Draw 4)

• Verdict: Outsiders
• Analysis: Juan Les Pins ran well (3rd) on New Year’s Day but lacks the tactical speed for 5f here. Spring Is Sprung is returning from a 112-day break and his last RPR was a dismal 57. Hard to support.

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The Forensic Verdict

The race shapes up as a match on the Stand Side rail between the pace-setter and the improver.

1. Winner:ZIGGY’S TRITON
   • Logic: He is on a steep upward curve (RPR 95 LTO), loves the track, and has the perfect draw (6) to stalk the leader. He represents the “young legs” against exposed veterans.
2. Forecast (2nd):FIDELIUS
   • Logic: The “pace bias” play. From Stall 7, he leads on the rail. He is receiving weight and is tough to pass.
3. Third:PADDY’S DAY
   • Logic: In better form than Alligator Alley and likely to run his race, though the track doesn’t suit him as well as Newcastle.