Going: Soft to Heavy. Track: Stiff, galloping, left-handed with a demanding uphill finish. Emphasis is firmly on stamina.

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12:10 Navan – Race Displays Rated Novice Hurdle (2m)

The Forensic View: The pace map here is aggressive. Welonlyhavedone, Bon Viveur, Khmer, and Zeus Power all like to force the issue, and Zeus Power took a fierce hold last time out. A pace burn-up on heavy ground at Navan turns 2m into a serious stamina test, heavily penalising those who race inefficiently. The Verdict: This scenario plays perfectly for Lazare De Star. He drops back in trip having won over 2m4½f at Leopardstown, meaning he possesses the residual stamina to finish strongest when the front-runners begin to tread water up the hill. Zeus Power is the danger on paper, but his tendency to race keenly is a structural vulnerability in these conditions.

• Selection: Lazare De Star

12:45 Navan – Maiden Hurdle (2m6f)

The Forensic View: Court Compliance is the reliable benchmark here; his 2nd at Punchestown puts him 11 lengths clear of He Can’t Dance on collateral form. However, the race contains a significant hidden performance. The Verdict: Melbourne Shamrock ran a massive race to finish 2nd over 3m at Fairyhouse last month (RPR 122), despite running green and jumping sloppily at the last. That error masked a serious engine. If he jumps straight today, his proven stamina over 3m will be the deciding factor against an exposed favourite.

• Selection: Melbourne Shamrock

1:20 Navan – Handicap Hurdle (2m4f)

The Forensic View: A “blot on the handicap” scenario. The pace setup is incendiary, with five runners likely to contest the lead, setting the race up for a closer. The Verdict: Sa Fureur is the standout forensic selection. He is rated 151 over fences but runs here off a hurdle mark of 131. That 20lb differential is massive. He handles heavy ground, stays further than this trip, and in a race destined to collapse late on, his class edge should be overwhelming.

• Selection: Sa Fureur (Nap)

1:50 Navan – Ardmulchan Handicap Hurdle (2m4f)

The Forensic View: A tricky low-grade handicap where recent aptitude for the conditions is the best guide. Herculaneum dislikes heavy ground and Teescomponentsyess is out of form. The Verdict: Shellrunforbriggs is the most compelling option. She won a maiden hurdle at Naas (stiff track, heavy ground) just last month. While the form wasn’t high class, having a fit, unexposed horse that handles the specific “slog” of these conditions is a rare commodity in this field. An opening mark of 102 looks fair.

• Selection: Shellrunforbriggs

2:25 Navan – Beginners Chase (3m)

The Forensic View: A direct collateral form line dominates this race. Slade Steel (Supreme Novices’ winner) meets Wingmen again. In December, over this course (2m4f), Slade Steel beat Wingmen by 10 lengths. Wingmen is a front-runner who often finds one too good; stretching him to 3m on this ground makes him even more vulnerable. The Verdict: It is hard to oppose Slade Steel. Despite a slight stamina query regarding 3m on heavy, his base form is simply superior. If he does fail to stay, the fascinating alternative is Spread Boss Ted, whose 4th in the Albert Bartlett (3m heavy) proves he has the lungs for this test if fit off the break.

• Selection: Slade Steel

3:00 Navan – Handicap Chase (0-100) (3m)

The Forensic View: Proven stamina vs. suspect stamina. Duce Bigalow likes to lead but has faded late over shorter trips (2m/2m3f). Asking him to lead over 3m at Navan seems a recipe for a late collapse. The Verdict: Milanaway is the logical answer. She won over 3m on heavy ground over hurdles in December and gets to run off a lower mark over fences today (88 vs 93). She stays all day and should have the race fall into her lap when the leaders tire.

• Selection: Milanaway

3:35 Navan – INH Flat Race (2m)

The Forensic View: Form in the book vs. reputation. The Irish Avatar cost £200k and represents high-profile connections, but his PTP form was solid rather than spectacular. The Verdict: Low Kick offers better substance. His 3rd in a competitive Aintree bumper in May was a serious run—he met trouble, switched, and hit the line hard (RPR 97). That form sets a high standard. If he handles the softer surface (his sire’s progeny usually do), he has the engine to turn over the favourite.

• Selection: Low Kick

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Summary

• Nap: Sa Fureur (1:20)
• Next Best: Lazare De Star (12:10)
• Dark Horse: Melbourne Shamrock (12:45)