Windsor • Thurles • Fakenham

The Winter Million Finale and Key Festival Clues

Executive Summary

Sunday’s racing marks an important mid-season checkpoint in the National Hunt calendar. The Winter Million finale at Windsor offers championship-level prize money in testing conditions, Thurles stages a Grade 2 that traditionally points towards Cheltenham’s middle-distance chases, and Fakenham hosts one of its richest specialist handicaps of the year.

Across all three meetings, the same principles dominate: weights, ground, pace, and track suitability. When those variables align, as they do in several of Sunday’s feature races, the betting picture becomes unusually clear.

The strongest statistical edge on the card lies in the Fleur De Lys Chase at Windsor, where race conditions allow a proven Grade 1 horse to receive weight from inferior rivals. Elsewhere, stable intent at Thurles and course specialisation at Fakenham provide the clearest routes to value.

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Part I – Windsor

The Winter Million Finale

Track & Conditions

Windsor’s figure-of-eight jumps layout places a premium on balance, agility, and tactical positioning. On soft ground, it becomes far more demanding than its flat appearance suggests. Covered ground here often rides “dead”, sapping energy rather than rewarding speed.

Sunday’s going is Soft (Good to Soft in places). Any horse without proven stamina or sound breathing is vulnerable.

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12:20 – Mares’ Novices’ Hurdle (Class 2)

This is a far stronger race than the grade suggests, with black-type incentives drawing serious prospects.

• Lau And Shaz sets the standard. She’s the highest rated (122), arrives in peak form, and has the ideal stamina pedigree for conditions. Cobden’s booking confirms intent.
• Penn Avenue is the wildcard. She receives a huge weight-for-age allowance, and on soft ground that matters. If her jumping holds, she’s a genuine danger.
• Anariza should improve again in the mud but may just lack the raw figures.

Verdict:
Lau And Shaz is the solid play. Penn Avenue is the value threat.

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13:20 – Hampton Novices’ Chase (Grade 2)

Originally scheduled for Warwick, this race looks very different at Windsor.

• Salver is a proven soft-ground grinder with Grade 1 form. The addition of cheekpieces suggests he’s fully primed, and his previous demolition of Doyen Quest reads very well.
• Jeriko Du Reponet has class but remains vulnerable under pressure and hasn’t always jumped fluently at this level.
• Wade Out is the improver, but this is a sharp jump in depth.

Verdict:
Soft ground tips the balance firmly towards Salver.

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15:00 – Fitzdares Fleur De Lys Chase

The Bet of the Day

The Protektorat Weight Anomaly

This race is defined by one simple, decisive fact.

• Protektorat is rated 165, a Grade 1 winner, and the defending champion.
• Due to race conditions, he carries 11st 2lb.
• Inferior rivals rated 10–15lb lower either concede weight to him or receive far less than they should.

In effect, Protektorat is massively well-in compared to a normal handicap structure.

Add in:

• Proven course form
• Soft-ground ability
• A recent wind operation
• A credible prep run at Cheltenham under big weight

…and the edge becomes overwhelming.

Verdict:
Protektorat should win barring accident. This is the clearest betting opportunity of the weekend.

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Part II – Thurles

Grade 2 Clues on a Fair Winter Surface

Thurles often provides the most honest jumping ground in Ireland during January. Yielding ground here rewards balance and cruising speed rather than brute stamina.

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15:20 – Horse & Jockey Hotel Chase (Grade 2)

Willie Mullins dominates the field and, crucially, the race shape.

• Hercule Du Seuil ensures a strong pace.
• That setup plays perfectly into the hands of Appreciate It, a previous winner of this race and the stable’s chosen ride for Paul Townend.
• James Du Berlais has ability but lacks Appreciate It’s course record.
• Gentleman De Mee still has stamina to prove over this trip.

Verdict:
Everything points to Appreciate It. Track, trip, pace, and jockey booking all align.

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Part III – Fakenham

Where Course Form Is King

Fakenham is a specialist’s track. Tight turns, short straights, and relentless rhythm mean previous course dominance matters more here than anywhere else.

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14:40 – Queen Boudicca Series Final (Class 2)

• Gazette Bourgeoise won a qualifier over this C&D by 21 lengths.
• She’s been raised 7lb, but that is rarely enough to stop a horse that clearly handles Fakenham better than its rivals.
• Others bring class or profiles, but not proven affinity.

Verdict:
At a track like this, you trust the evidence. Gazette Bourgeoise again.

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15:10 – Handicap Chase (Class 5)

Low-grade, but not unbettable.

• Annie Nail is a proven C&D winner and returns to fences at her favourite venue.
• In races like this, familiarity beats potential.

Verdict:
Annie Nail is the sensible value play.

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Final Selections – Sunday Portfolio

Time	Track	Selection	Confidence
15:00	Windsor	Protektorat	Very High (NAP)
15:20	Thurles	Appreciate It	High (NB)
14:40	Fakenham	Gazette Bourgeoise	Medium–High
13:20	Windsor	Salver	Medium
12:20	Windsor	Lau And Shaz	Medium

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Closing Thought

Sunday is a day where the strongest bets are strong for structural reasons, not hype.
Weights at Windsor, stable intent at Thurles, and course bias at Fakenham all point clearly.