We’ve got a tricky eight-race card at Gosforth Park tomorrow. The markets have latched onto a few big-name trainers (the “Prescott Factor” is in full swing), but looking at the weights and speed figures, I think the value lies elsewhere.
Here is my race-by-race breakdown, stripping away the noise and focusing on the maths.
12:43 – The Opener
The market is all over Sir Mark Prescott’s Selenic, but 7/4 feels very short for a horse that didn’t show much last time. The data points to King Chaos. He’s the top-rated horse on my figures and, crucially, he gets a 3lb pull in the weights with Golspie for a defeat of less than a length last month. That swing should be enough to turn the tables.
The Pick: King Chaos (7/2)
The Lurker: Sword of Wessex (7/1) – A new recruit for James Owen. If the money comes, take note.
13:13 – Classified Stakes
This is a 0-50 Classified, so they all carry 9st 9lb. Forget “well-handicapped” and look for “back class.” Sir Maxi has a patchy profile, but just two months ago he beat two of today’s rivals while giving them lumps of weight. Meeting them on level terms today, he is mathematically the best horse in the race if he puts his best foot forward.
The Pick: Superior Council (5/2) – The safe, consistent option.
The Lurker: Sir Maxi (5/1) – The clever weights play.
13:43 – 5f Novice
Another Prescott favourite here in Starryfield, but I’m opposing him. Dandy Breeze posted a massive speed figure on debut over this course and distance. In a 5f sprint, raw engine matters more than connections. He looks faster than the favourite, plain and simple.
The Pick: Dandy Breeze (11/4)
The Lurker: Harmonised (11/1) – Her sectionals are better than her finishing positions suggest.
14:13 – The Golden Goal Handicap
Aisling Oscar is looking for a six-timer, which is incredibly rare in this grade. The handicapper has surely caught up. The value is Tasever. He gave Aisling Oscar 9lbs in December and was only beaten a length and a half. Today, the weights are totally different. Tasever is “well-in” and 8/1 is a massive price given the maths.
The Pick: Tasever (8/1)
The Lurker: Sea Legend (6/1) – Dropping back to a mile could wake him up.
14:43 – 6f Class 3 Sprint
This is usually a race for the “old guard” who trade wins, but Betsen is a serious anomaly. My ratings have him 29 points clear of the field. That is a huge gap. He’s unexposed against these rivals and could just be a cut above them.
The Pick: Betsen (9/4)
The Lurker: Coachello (10/3) – Should be sharper for his recent run.
15:13 – 6f Handicap (Div I)
Spartan Fighter is a course specialist who likes to dominate from the front. The favourite, Teardrops, has a nasty habit of missing the break. Over 6f at Newcastle, if you give a confirmed front-runner a head start, you rarely catch them.
The Pick: Spartan Fighter (5/2)
The Lurker: Ana Emaraaty (4/1) – Will pick up the pieces if they go too fast.
15:43 – 6f Handicap (Div II)
The NAP of the day.
You don’t need to overthink this one. Ramon Di Loria beat his two main market rivals (Instant Bond and Asadjumeirah) comfortably over this course just 10 days ago. Due to the way the weights work, he actually meets them on better terms today. It’s hard to see how they reverse that form.
The Pick: Ramon Di Loria (3/1)
The Lurker: Yorkshire Glory (5/2) – First-time headgear makes him the only unknown quantity.
16:13 – The Finale
Dandy Dinmont tried to run the legs off them over 6f last time and faded. Dropping back to 5f today is the perfect move for a horse with his natural speed. He should be able to burn them off.
The Pick: Dandy Dinmont (5/1)
The Lurker: Harb (15/2) – Gets a massive 6lb weight swing with the favourite compared to their last meeting.
Summary:
NAP: Ramon Di Loria (15:43)
Next Best: Tasever (14:13)
Value Play: Sir Maxi (13:13)
Good luck if you’re having a flutter.