Let’s be honest, Monday racing in January can be a bit of a slog. You’re usually looking at low-grade fillers while waiting for the weekend action. But every now and then, something pops up on the All-Weather that makes you sit up and take notice.

That happened today in the 2:38 at Kempton.

If you just glanced at the results, you’d see a short-priced favourite winning a Class 3 Novice. Standard stuff. But when you dig into the numbers, Caliban looks like a proper machine.

The Clock Don’t Lie First off, the time was serious. On ‘Standard to Slow’ ground, he clocked 138.74s. My standard time for this trip is usually around the 140.8s mark. To go over two seconds faster than standard—while Oisin Murphy was easing him down at the finish—is rare for a Monday afternoon.

He made all, kicked clear, and the others never saw which way he went.

What My Ratings Say He came into this race with an Official Rating (OR) of 77. The handicapper will have his say on Tuesday, but my figures suggest he’s miles ahead of that mark.

I’ve crunched the numbers and I have him running to a rating of 89. That’s a massive +12lb improvement on his official mark.

When you get a discrepancy that big, you have to pay attention. If he turns up in a handicap next time off a mark in the low 80s, he is absolutely thrown in. To be honest, he looked like a Listed horse masquerading as a handicapper.

The Ones in Behind It wasn’t just the winner who caught the eye.

• Summer Appeal (2nd): An absolute eyecatcher at 80/1. The race was run at a fierce gallop (thanks to the winner), and usually, that kills off the horses trying to come from the back. She made up a lot of ground to grab second. I’ve rated her 78. Keep an eye on her when she drops in class or faces her own sex.
• Siouxfonic (3rd): Don’t be too harsh on him. He was giving nearly a stone (9lbs) to the winner and had to carry 9-13. My figures actually have him running to an 86 once you adjust for weight. He’s a solid yardstick.

The Verdict Into the tracker he goes. Caliban is a horse going places, and I suspect we’ll be hearing a lot more about him come the turf season. But for now, if he runs under a penalty, don’t overthink it.

• My Rating: 89 (+12lb vs OR)